Baltic
Dry Index. 2374 +24
Brent Crude 85.68
Spot
Gold 2148 US 2 Year Yield 4.72 +0.04
The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
Not much need for me to comment today, the articles speak loudly for themselves as to what’s happening this week in the stock casinos.
To no one’s surprise, President Putin got re-elected to a fifth term in Russia.
As the BOJ winds up its policy meeting on Tuesday, the US Fed starts day one of its two days of meetings. On Thursday it’s the BOE’s turn to play God with the price of money.
Depending on where you are in the world, in the
northern hemisphere the Spring equinox happens on the 19th or 20th.
In the southern hemisphere it’s the Autumn equinox, same dates.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 leads gains in Asia markets ahead of BOJ meeting; China shares rise after
data
UPDATED SUN, MAR 17 2024 10:58 PM EDT
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 index led gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Monday, while China
shares extended gains after data showed its economy kicked off the year on a
strong note.
The U.S. Federal
Reserve will start its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. A
Reuters poll of economists is expecting the Fed to hold its benchmark interest
rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5%.
In Asia, the
Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 4.35%
when it concludes its meeting on Tuesday.
In contrast, a
Reuters poll expects the Bank of Japan to exit its negative interest rate
policy and lift its benchmark rate to 0% from -0.1% when it makes its
announcement on Tuesday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
2.2%, while the Topix climbed 1.6%.
In Europe, the
Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%.
Data showed
retail sales and industrial production in
China rose more than expected in the first two months of the
year. The unemployment rate for cities was 5.3% in February.
China’s CSI 300
index rose 0.49% after the data.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index pared
declines to trade near the flatline after opening nearly 0.3% lower.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.06%.
South Korea’s Kospi was
0.42% higher after recording an almost 2% loss on Friday, while the small-cap
Kosdaq was up 1.45%.
The Taiwan Weighted
index was
0.41% higher, with shares of Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Company up
1.2%.
Asia
markets live: Nikkei, CSI 300 gain; BOJ meeting; strong China data (cnbc.com)
Goldman
Sachs now expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates Tuesday
Goldman Sachs now expects the Bank of Japan to
raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years at its March meeting this
week, bringing forward its previous forecast for an April decision.
The bank’s senior Japan economist
Tomohiro Ota cited stronger-than-expected
salary gains at the annual “shunto” wages negotiations and
subsequent Japanese news reports of an exit from negative rates at the BOJ’s
March meeting that ends Tuesday.
“The BOJ has not sent any signal denying the news so far,” Ota wrote in a
Monday note. “Together, these developments imply that the BOJ probably no
longer needs more data for the policy change, nor to wait to justify the policy
change with the quarterly Economic Outlook report in April.”
While a slim majority of economists
are still expecting the central bank to raise rate in April, an increasing
number of economists have moved their forecasts forward to March in the last
two weeks amid signs that salary negotiations this year will be far more robust
than expected.
Ota said he expects the BOJ to
abolish its yield curve control policy, which the central bank employs to
target longer-term interest rates, by buying and selling bonds as necessary.
Still, he expects the central bank will “not explicitly commit” to the size of
its Japanese government bond purchases or the cessation of its ETF purchases.
“The overshooting
commitment, by which the BOJ commits to increase monetary base, is likely to be
abolished as well,” he added.
While the central
bank has effectively loosened its yield curve control policy over longer term
interest rates over the past 16 months, it has kept interest rates at -0.1% and
still maintains an upper limit for 10-year Japanese government bond yield at 1%
as a reference.
More
BOJ
meeting: Goldman expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates in March (cnbc.com)
China kicks
off the year on strong note as retail, industrial data tops expectations
BEIJING —
China’s economic data for the first two months of the year beat analysts’
expectations across the board on Monday.
Retail sales rose
5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while
industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth.
Fixed asset
investment rose by 4.2%, more than the 3.2% estimated by analysts.
The unemployment rate
in February for cities came in at 5.3%.
Online retail sales
of physical goods rose 14.4% from a year earlier during the first two months of
the year.
Investment into real
estate fell 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. Investment
in infrastructure rose by 6.3% while those in manufacturing increased by 9.4%
during that time.
“We believe China’s
sequential growth momentum remained solid in Q1 despite notable divergence
across sectors,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Monday following the
data release.
“However, to secure
the ambitious “around 5%” growth target this year, more policy easing is still
necessary, especially on the demand-side (e.g., fiscal, housing and
consumption).”
Despite the upbeat
results, National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua cautioned that
domestic demand remains insufficient.
---- When asked about the unemployment rate
for people aged 16 to 24, Liu said the figures would be released a few days
after the monthly press conference on economic data.
Economic figures for January and February are
typically combined in China to smooth out variations from the Lunar New Year,
which can fall in either month depending on the calendar year. It is the
country’s biggest national holiday, in which factories and businesses remain
closed for at least a week.
More
China
retail sales, industrial data for first 2 months beats expectations (cnbc.com)
But, there’s many a slip ‘tween cusp and lip,
all the more so in property depression China.
China
February new bank loans dip more than expected, lending growth at record low
New bank lending in China fell more than expected in February
from a record high the previous month, even as the
central bank seeks to spur sluggish economic growth and
fight deflationary pressures.
Chinese banks
extended 1.45 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion)
in new yuan loans in February, according to Reuters
calculations based on data released by the
People’s Bank of China, or PBOC, down sharply from January and
falling short of analysts’ expectations.
Outstanding
yuan loans grew 10.1% from a year earlier — the lowest
on record — compared with 10.4% growth in January. Analysts
had expected 10.2%.
A pull-back
in February from January was widely expected, because
Chinese banks tend to front-load loans at the beginning of the
year to get high-quality customers and win market share.
The timing of the
week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in February this
year versus late January in 2023, may also have weighed
on lending activity last month.
Analysts polled by
Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would fall to 1.50
trillion yuan in February from 4.92 trillion yuan the previous month and
against 1.81 trillion yuan a year earlier.
“Aggregate financing
and new loans came in weaker than expected amid
limited high-quality borrowing demand, showing the limited immediate impact
of February’s cut in the required reserve ratio,” analysts at ING said in a
note.
“Although the PBOC
has signaled further RRR cuts to come, a lack of high-quality borrowing demand
could limit the effectiveness of RRR cuts in stimulating the economy.”
More
China
February new bank loans dip more than expected, lending growth at record low
(cnbc.com)
Oil prices build on
last week's gains as supply risks rise
By Mohi
Narayan and Colleen
Howe March 18, 2024 4:38 AM
GMT
NEW DELHI, March 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked
up in Asian trade on Monday, extending gains from last week when prices rose
nearly 4% on the view that supply was tightening, with the risks heightened by
further attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Brent crude oil futures for May delivery climbed 32
cents, or 0.4%, to $85.66 a barrel by 0416 GMT. The April contract for U.S.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 40 cents, or 0.5%, at $81.44. The
more active May delivery contract for WTI traded 37 cents, or 0.5%, higher at
$80.95 per barrel.
"The strikes on Russian
refineries added $2-$3 per barrel of risk premium to crude last week, which
remains in place as we start this week with more attacks over the
weekend," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda
Insights.
But for the next substantial move up or down, crude will await
fresh signals, Hari added.
On Saturday, one of the strikes sparked a brief fire at the Slavyansk refinery
in Kasnodar, which processes 8.5 million metric tons of crude oil a year, or
170,000 barrels per day.
A Reuters analysis found the
attacks have idled around 7% of Russian refining capacity in the first quarter.
The refining complexes process and export crude varieties to several markets
including China and India.
In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed
on Sunday he will proceed with plans to push into Gaza's Rafah enclave where
more than 1 million displaced people are sheltering, defying pressure from
Israel's allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the step would make
regional peace "very difficult".
More
Oil prices build on last week's gains as supply risks rise | Reuters
Next up, more on that cashless society future
nightmare.
Sainsbury's and Tesco IT meltdown highlights
'catastrophic' dangers of cashless society and our reliance on 'digital
infrastructure', tech experts warn - after thousands of shoppers were left
without groceries
March
17, 2024
The
IT meltdowns suffered by Sainsbury's and Tesco highlight the dangers of relying on
cashless payments which puts our society 'at risk', experts have warned.
On
Saturday morning, Sainsbury's experienced a 'technical issue' which created
chaos for thousands of people on one of the busiest shopping days of the week.
The supermarket chain cancelled
online orders and couldn't accept contactless payments - so shoppers either had
to pay in cash, or scramble to try and remember their PIN.
While people desperately queued to
use nearby ATMs - the dramatic uptick in cash withdrawal meant many of the
machines ran out.
Many loyal shoppers turned to rival
chain Tesco - it also experienced issues with online orders, with a small
proportion being cancelled.
An expert has told MailOnline how depending on
a cashless society could be 'catastrophic' - as frustrated shoppers take to
social media to vent their anger.
More
Finally, yet another warning on Uncle Scam’s
rising out of control debt. Not that anyone cares (yet.) Debt is never a
problem, until one day it is.
Rogoff Says Biden,
Trump Favor ‘Blowing Up’ US Debt
Wed, March 13, 2024 at 5:41 PM GMT
(Bloomberg)
-- Harvard University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said both President
Joe Biden and his predecessor and challenger Donald Trump risk sending US debt
levels into dangerous territory as Washington fails to grasp that the era of
ultra-low interest rates won’t come back.
“Washington in general has a very
relaxed attitude towards debt that I think they’re going to be sorry about,”
Rogoff said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. “It’s
just not the free lunch that Congress and perhaps the two presidential
candidates have gotten used to.”
While an exact “upper limit” for the
federal debt cannot be known — it’s estimated by the Congressional Budget
Office to climb to 116% of US gross domestic product by 2034 from 99% today —
Rogoff warned that there will be challenges as the level increases.
The former International Monetary
Fund chief economist said the escalating borrowing load will create volatility
in inflation and interest rates, and encourage political pressures on the
Federal Reserve. Current CBO projections also leave “a lot of room for
accidents” that drive debt even higher.
You’re taking bigger and bigger
risks,” Rogoff said. “We will feel that.”
Both candidates may favor policies
that will drive borrowing higher, he said. “Biden’s speech suggested blowing up
the debt,” he said — even after the president in his State of the Union address
last week proposed tax hikes to help to pay for spending priorities.
“We have really no idea what Donald
Trump will do, but that’s what he did last time he was president — good guess
he will do it again,” Rogoff said, referring to widening fiscal deficits when
Trump was president 2017-21.
More
Rogoff Says Biden, Trump Favor ‘Blowing Up’ US Debt (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US Economy Shifts 'From
Goldilocks To Stagflation': Top Wall Street Analyst Explains Why Crypto, Gold
Are At All-Time Highs
Mar.
15, 2024, 11:17 AM
Bank of America’s chief
investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, expects the U.S.
economy to shift in 2024 from a ‘goldilocks’ phase into a ‘stagflation’
scenario.
This transition is
characterized by a slowdown in growth to below 2%, while inflation stubbornly
hovers between 3-4%.
Crypto: The Time Of Monsters?
Hartnett also highlighted the
record-breaking week for cryptocurrency. About $3.4 billion was funneled into
crypto funds. So far this year, there has been a 57% surge in crypto asset
prices.
To highlight the significance
of these movements, he invokes the words of Marxist theorist and social
activist Antonio Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and
the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters.”
Inflation And Debt
Trends: Risks Of Policy Credibility For The Fed?
Hartnett underlined the recent uptick
in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, projecting an increase to 3.6% for
the headline CPI and 4% for the core CPI on a year-on-year basis by June.
This comes at a critical moment when
the market anticipates a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve,
suggesting a challenging road ahead for policymakers.
At the same time, the fiscal
landscape presents its own challenges, with a 9% year-on-year increase in
government spending on military and interest payments in the last five months.
This has contributed to a 15% increase in the budget deficit, on track to hit
$2.0 trillion annually, and has led to U.S. government debt increasing by $1
trillion every 100 days, Hartnett noted.
The resulting pressure on U.S.
Treasury bond yields, now threatening to break out towards 4½%, cannot be
ignored.
The Fed’s implicit tolerance of
higher inflation may serve to ease the burden of U.S. debt, but Hartnett warns
this comes at the cost of policy credibility and potentially leads to a weaker
currency.
This environment, he argues, is why
cryptocurrencies and gold are reaching all-time highs, as investors seek refuge
in assets perceived to be safer or more resilient to inflationary pressures and
policy uncertainty.
Stagflation’s
Silver Linings: Investment Opportunities
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Doctor Challenges Official
Narrative on COVID-19 Vaccine Safety
March 15, 2024
From President Joe Biden to
the former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to your local
physician, those in authority repeated the mantra that COVID-19 vaccines were
“safe and effective.”
However, Dr. Pierre Kory, a pulmonary critical care
physician and the head of a team of medical professionals who develop
prevention and treatment protocols for COVID-19, begged
to differ. Appearing on “The Tucker Carlson Encounter” on X, Kory said the data
didn’t support such a statement but actually supports the opposite conclusion.
Kory
is president of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance, an organization
started by five intensive care unit doctors who were on the front lines of
patient treatment when the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. He gained national
attention for advocating widespread off-label use of certain drugs such as
ivermectin as treatments for COVID-19.
Kory told Carlson that excess fatalities and disability
claims started to skyrocket when people started taking the COVID-19 vaccines.
He said data showing a dramatic increase in deaths among young people and
white-collar workers drew him to ask these questions: “Why was there an
explosion in dying in the youngest and healthiest sectors of society, and why
did the employed fare far worse than those that weren’t?”
Americans’
life expectancy dropped by three years during the three years of the pandemic,
he said, and in those same three years, 4 million Americans joined the
disability rolls.
Since the pandemic, Kory
said he has seen more people coming into his clinic complaining about a whole
series of problems they developed after taking the vaccines.
More
Medical Expert Exposes COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation (dailysignal.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
So you
really, really, really want to ride in an electric bus? Approx. 8 minutes.
Electric
Bus Fires Worldwide
Electric
Bus Fires Worldwide (youtube.com)
And this
week’s March Equinox.
March
equinox 2024: All you need to know
March 17, 2024
What is it? The March equinox – aka the vernal equinox –
marks the sun’s crossing above Earth’s equator, moving from south to north.
Earth’s tilt on its axis is what causes this northward shift of the sun’s path
across our sky at this time of year. Earth’s tilt is now bringing spring and
summer to the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, the March equinox marks
the beginning of autumn – and a shift toward winter – in the Southern
Hemisphere.
When is it? The sun will cross the celestial equator – a
line directly above Earth’s equator – at 3:06 UTC on
March 20, 2024 (10:06 p.m. CDT on March 19).
No matter where you are on
Earth, the equinox brings us a number of seasonal effects, noticeable to nature
lovers around the globe.
Equal day and night on the equinox?
At the equinox, Earth’s two
hemispheres are receiving the sun’s rays equally. Night and day are often said
to be equal in length. In fact, the word equinox comes from
the Latin aequus (equal) and nox (night).
For our ancestors, whose timekeeping was less precise than ours, day and night
likely did seem equal. But today we know it’s not exactly so.
Fastest sunsets at the equinoxes
The fastest sunsets and
sunrises of the year happen at the equinoxes. We’re talking here about the
length of time it takes for the whole sun to sink below the horizon.
More
March equinox 2024: All you need to know
(earthsky.org)
Finally, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Inflation is probably the most important single factor in that vicious circle wherein one kind of government action makes more and more government control necessary. For this reason all those who wish to stop the drift toward increasing government control should concentrate their effort on monetary policy.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
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