Baltic Dry Index. 2111 +70 Brent Crude 82.25
Spot Gold 2047 US 2 Year Yield 4.64 unch.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, a fact underscoring what policymakers have said time and again: the fight for lower inflation is going to be uneven, and it’s too soon to start cutting interest rates. The report was in line with expectations, and markets rose.
Bloomberg.
In the global stock casinos, AI mania. Planet Earth’s latest stock bubble, bubbles on, growing in size forever, according to most stock pundits.
Still, a growing number of leading US insiders have started selling out. Why?
What could possibly go wrong?
Well, the Fed’s bank bailout scheme, the Bank Funding Term Program comes to its end on Monday the 11th of March. China’s property bust is getting worse, not better. Much of Europe has slid into recession.
Worst of all, two murderous wars show no sign of ending. Inflation is likely to surge again later in the year.
Not to worry though, stock pundits see stocks to infinity and beyond.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 hovers near 40,000
record level to lead gains in Asia; China markets rise after factory data
UPDATED FRI, MAR 1 2024 12:38 AM EST
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 was on track to hit a record 40,000 level, leading gains in Asia
stocks on Friday, while China markets rose as investors digested manufacturing
data from the mainland.
Official data showed February
manufacturing PMI at 49.1, in line with a Reuters Poll forecast. The private Caixin manufacturing final PMI came in at
50.9, slightly higher than the previous month’s 50.8.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates
expansion, while below that denotes a contraction.
China’s CSI 300 rose 0.2% after
closing almost 2% higher in the last session.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged
0.3% higher.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped
as much as 2%, to hit a fresh record high. The broader Topix index added 1.2%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended
0.6% higher at 7,745.60. The index rose 1.3% for the week.
South Korea markets were shut for
the Movement Day holiday.
Overnight, the Nasdaq Composite clocked
its first closing record since November 2021 on Thursday as tech and chip
stocks rallied.
The tech-heavy index ended with
gains of 0.90% to close at an all-time high at 16,091.92. The S&P 500 also
closed at a record, rising 0.52% to hit 5,096.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked
higher by 0.12%.
Data overnight showed, U.S.
inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according
to a key gauge the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation.
The personal consumption
expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs rose 0.4% in January
and 2.8% from a year earlier, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates.
Asia markets: China
manufacturing data, South Korea closed (cnbc.com)
Stock futures edge higher after the market
wraps its 4th winning month in a row: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, MAR 1 20241 2:22 AM EST
Stock
futures edged higher Friday after the market wrapped up its fourth winning
month and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached its first closing record
since November 2021.
Futures on the Dow Jones
Industrial Average inched
20 points higher. S&P 500
futures rose
about 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures added
about 0.2%.
Troubled regional bank New York Community Bancorp shed
a whopping 20% in extended trading after the lender announced
a leadership change and disclosed issues with its internal
controls. The bank is already down more than 50% in 2024.
Major averages ended another
positive month as the rally driven by an artificial intelligence boom and hopes
for rate cuts chugged along. The Nasdaq was the best performer in February with
a 6.1% gain. The S&P 500 climbed
5.2%, while the Dow added
2.2% for its first four-month winning streak since May 2021.
“We’re still firmly in the
disinflationary camp and think the Fed will be forced to cut rates by
June,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.
Thursday’s gains came after
inflation data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index
excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, rose 0.4% in
January, in
line with expectations.
Bitcoin pulled off a fierce rally
in February, up nearly 45% to top $62,000. It’s the token’s best
month since December 2020 as well as its sixth-straight monthly
gain.
On a weekly basis, the S&P
500 is tracking for a roughly 0.2% advance, while the Nasdaq is up 0.6%. The
30-stock Dow is the laggard, down nearly 0.4%.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
AI is driving a market bubble that’s
unlikely to burst, veteran advisor says
As tech giant Nvidia soars
on hype around artificial intelligence, and global stock indexes notch
record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has
entered a “bubble.”
That’s generally seen as a period
in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value —
and risk crashing just as fast.
Bob Parker, senior advisor at trade body International Capital Markets
Association, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday he saw signs of a
bubble based on two of three main characteristics.
“The first [characteristic] is
obviously looking at valuations. If we look at the valuation of Nvidia,
justifiably it is actually very high indeed,” Parker said, adding that the
second sign is investor positioning.
“Whenever you have a market bubble,
investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in
one sector.
“And it doesn’t matter whether you
look at the U.S. or Europe or some of the Asian markets, you know, we’ve got
this historic wide valuation between the tech sector, and obviously AI as a
sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.. Investors are very
clustered in that tech sector,” Parker said.
The topic has been dividing market watchers.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told
CNBC on Monday that he does not see AI as a bubble,
emphasizing: “When we had the internet bubble the first time around … that was
hype. This is not hype. It’s real.”
Yet Torsten Sløk, chief economist at asset manager Apollo, published a chart this month, comparing the
valuations of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 with their counterparts
during the 1990s boom and calling the “current AI bubble... bigger than the
1990s tech bubble.”
While he acknowledged the signs of
a bubble, Parker is less concerned that it is on the brink of a burst.
His optimism is rooted in the third
characteristic of a bubble — investor leverage, or the use of debt for funding.
More
Veteran
advisor sees signs of a market bubble — but not of it bursting (cnbc.com)
Asia's factories
struggle for growth as China, Japan falter
March 1, 2024 6:05
AM GMT
March 1 (Reuters) - Asia's
major manufacturing economies struggled to claw their way out of decline in
February with Japan particularly squeezed by a steeper fall in demand while an
uneven recovery in China overshadowed some signs of improvement elsewhere in
the region.
A raft of business surveys released on Friday highlighted a
patchy performance across Asia with Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers'
index (PMI) showing factory activity falling at
the fastest pace in more than three years.
There were more mixed
signals out of China with the government's official PMI showing
factory activity continuing to fall, in contrast to a slight pick up seen in
the private-sector Caixin PMI.
"February PMI data indicated another month of deteriorating
operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector," said Usamah
Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
"Depressed demand in domestic and international markets
continued to weigh on sector performance, as both production and new orders
fell at the strongest rate for a year."
Worryingly, recent data
suggests the weakness seen in Japan in the second half of last year has
extended into the first quarter of 2024, complicating the Bank of Japan's task
as it looks to exit ultra-easy monetary policy.
Japan unexpectedly slipped into recession in the
fourth quarter and lost its title as the world's third-largest economy to
Germany as consumer and business spending weakened.
Its PMI followed official Japanese data this week that showed factory output falling at the
fastest pace since May 2020, weighed by a downturn in motor vehicle production.
China's patchy performance
comes amid signs the world's second-largest economy is tentatively finding its
footing after a deep slump caused by a property sector crisis.
Investors are looking ahead to China's annual meeting of parliament next
week where policymakers will face pressure to do more to get the economy back
on track.
Elsewhere in Asia, semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan also saw
factory activity decline at a somewhat sharper pace.
More
Asia's factories struggle for growth as China, Japan falter | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Japan factory output
falls at the fastest pace in nearly 4 years
By Satoshi
Sugiyama February 29, 2024 2:28
AM GMT
TOKYO, Feb 29 (Reuters) -
Japan's January factory output fell at the fastest pace since May 2020,
government data showed on Thursday, as a production downturn in motor vehicles
adds to concerns about the fragility of an economy that slipped into recession late
last year.
Industrial output fell 7.5% in January from the previous month,
data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) showed. It was
slightly worse than the median market forecast for a 7.3% drop, with output
sliding in 14 of the 15 industries surveyed by METI.
The ministry also downgraded
its assessment of industrial output for the first time since July last year,
laying bare the challenges for the economy as it tries to recover from a recession at
the end of last year.
Analysts at Capital Economics say the data suggest GDP may have
contracted again in the current quarter.
"The plunge in industrial production January suggests that
GDP will fall yet again this quarter, which will add to the view that Japan's
economy is in recession," said Gabriel Ng, assistant economist at Capital Economics.
Production declined the most
in motor vehicles, down 17.8% in January from the previous month. Output
decreases in regular passenger cars and electrical drives systems pulled down
the overall figures.
Japanese automaker Toyota Motor (7203.T), opens new tab in January suspended shipments
of some models after finding irregularities in certification tests for diesel
engines developed by affiliate Toyota Industries (6201.T), opens new tab.
More
Japan factory output falls at the fastest pace in
nearly 4 years | Reuters
Dip in euro zone
inflation bolsters case for ECB easing
February
29, 2024 12:54 PM GMT
FRANKFURT, Feb 29 (Reuters)
- Euro zone inflation dipped further this month, strengthening the case for the
European Central Bank to start easing interest
rates from record highs later this year, data from some of the
euro zone's biggest economies showed on Thursday.
The ECB has kept interest rates at record highs since September
but talk has decisively shifted to cuts as price growth is now moving closer to
target, even if some crucial areas like services and wage growth remain a
concern.
Inflation eased in France, Spain and many of
Germany's largest states, while labour market slack in Germany, the 20-nation
euro zone's biggest economy, increased a touch, potentially pointing to some
easing wage pressures, national authorities said.
The figures suggest that euro zone inflation, to be
published on Friday, will show a slowdown to around 2.5% in February from 2.8%
January, moving even closer to the ECB's own 2% target.
"Overall, today's
prints show that the disinflation process continues in the euro zone and
suggest we will see a small decline in the February print," Leo Barincou
at Oxford Economics said in a note.
In France, EU harmonised inflation dipped to 3.1% from 3.4%
while in Spain, it slowed to 2.9% from 3.5%. In Germany,
most states reported big dips, suggesting that a fall to 2.7% from 3.1% as expected
by economists, was realistic.
More
Dip in euro zone inflation bolsters case for ECB easing | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19
may have small but lasting impact on brain function, study suggests
February
29, 2024
Covid-19 may have a small but lasting
impact on people’s thinking and memory skills more than a year after infection,
a study suggests.
More than 140,000 people in the UK
took online tests to measure the changes in different aspects of their brain
function including concentration, reasoning, memory, spatial planning and other
skills, between August and December 2022.
Results, published in the New England
Journal of Medicine, revealed “small deficits” in the cognitive performance of
people who had recovered from Covid-19, when compared with those who had not
had the disease.
This also included people who had
Covid-19 symptoms for more than 12 weeks after infection – or long Covid – that
had eventually resolved, the researchers said.
Deficits in brain function were found
to be greater for people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 or infected with
earlier coronavirus variants, such as the original “wild type” virus or alpha.
These deficits were still detectable
a year or more after infection, even in people who recovered quickly, the
researchers said.
Reassuringly, they added, people who
had longer-lasting Covid-19 symptoms that had resolved by the time they did the
tests had deficits that were similar in size to those who had shorter recovery
times.
We were able to detect small
but measurable deficits in cognitive task performance Prof Adam Hampshire
Professor Paul Elliott,
senior study author and director of the React programme, from the School of
Public Health at Imperial College London,
said: “It is reassuring that people with persistent symptoms after Covid-19,
that had resolved, may expect to experience some improvement in their cognitive
functions to similar levels as those who experienced short illness.
“Furthermore, the cognitive
impact of Covid-19 appears to have reduced since the early stages of the
pandemic, with fewer people having persistent illness, and cognition being less
affected amongst those that were infected during the time when Omicron was the dominant strain.
“However, given the large
numbers of people who were infected, it will be important to continue to
monitor the long-term clinical and cognitive consequences of the Covid-19
pandemic.”
People also showed small deficits in some tasks that required
spatial planning or verbal reasoning, the researchers said.
More
Covid-19 may have small but lasting impact on brain
function, study suggests (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
A new
idea could supercharge battery performance for electric vehicles and beyond
February 28, 2024
Scientists are racing to make breakthroughs in battery technology, the cornerstone of global electrification, so they charge faster, last longer and cope better with fluctuations in temperature.
Batteries are a key part of
fighting the climate
crisis not only because they can
power electric vehicles but also store clean energy created by renewable
sources like solar panels and wind turbines.
New findings, detailed
in a research paper published on Wednesday, suggested that a lithium-ion battery could be improved by
altering its electrolyte, the solution that allows it to charge and discharge.
Lithium ion is currently the main battery type for EVs and clean energy
storage.
Researchers from Zhejiang University,
Hangzhou, and the Beijing Institute of Technology, said that making
improvements to the electrolyte was challenging because it needed both high
conductivity and low solvation energy, which can limit the cycle life of
batteries.
The team used a solvent called
fluoroacetonitrile, a chemical made up of small molecules, and said that it had
improved how lithium ions move through the electrolyte. The result was high
conductivity which allowed the battery to be charged faster.
What’s more, the battery
performance remained high, even when tested at extremely low temperatures
of minus 65 degrees Celsius. Battery life is often compromised at low temperatures.
The
research not only holds promise for the development of lithium-ion batteries
but for other types of energy storage systems, the researchers said.
The US Department of Energy
announced in November that it was investing $3.5bn in companies that produce
batteries and their critical mineral components.
The US government expects
that demand for lithium ion batteries will be ten-fold by the end of the
decade.
But there is growing concern
around lithium-ion batteries catching fire. Lithium-ion batteries that power
e-bikes was named as the cause of a fire which tore through an apartment
building in Harlem, New York last week, killing a 27-year-old journalist.
Four people died after a lithium-ion battery caught fire in an e-bike store in New York in June 2023 and
spread to apartments above. In December, a fire broke out on a cargo ship carrying nearly 2,000 tons of lithium-ion batteries
off Alaska’s coast.
A new idea could supercharge battery performance for
electric vehicles and beyond (msn.com)
Another weekend and another deadly war
weekend in the Gaza Ghetto and in Ukraine. Why? Have a great weekend everyone.
Israel has killed more than 25,000 Palestinian women and children since the Oct 7 attack by militant group
Hamas, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday.
The Daily Telegraph.
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