Friday, 1 March 2024

Stocks, To Infinity And Beyond. AI Mania.

Baltic Dry Index. 2111 +70            Brent Crude  82.25

Spot Gold 2047                    US 2 Year Yield 4.64 unch.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, a fact underscoring what policymakers have said time and again: the fight for lower inflation is going to be uneven, and it’s too soon to start cutting interest rates. The report was in line with expectations, and markets rose.

Bloomberg.

In the global stock casinos, AI mania.  Planet Earth’s latest stock bubble, bubbles on, growing in size forever, according to most stock pundits.

Still, a growing number of leading US insiders have started selling out. Why?

What could possibly  go wrong?

Well, the Fed’s bank bailout scheme, the Bank Funding Term Program comes to its end on Monday the 11th of March.  China’s property bust is getting worse, not better.  Much of Europe has slid into recession.

Worst of all, two murderous wars show no sign of ending. Inflation is likely to surge again later in the year.

Not to worry though, stock pundits see stocks to infinity and beyond.


Japan’s Nikkei 225 hovers near 40,000 record level to lead gains in Asia; China markets rise after factory data

UPDATED FRI, MAR 1 2024 12:38 AM EST

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was on track to hit a record 40,000 level, leading gains in Asia stocks on Friday, while China markets rose as investors digested manufacturing data from the mainland.

Official data showed February manufacturing PMI at 49.1, in line with a Reuters Poll forecast. The private Caixin manufacturing final PMI came in at 50.9, slightly higher than the previous month’s 50.8.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below that denotes a contraction.

China’s CSI 300 rose 0.2% after closing almost 2% higher in the last session.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.3% higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped as much as 2%, to hit a fresh record high. The broader Topix index added 1.2%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended 0.6% higher at 7,745.60. The index rose 1.3% for the week.

South Korea markets were shut for the Movement Day holiday.

Overnight, the Nasdaq Composite clocked its first closing record since November 2021 on Thursday as tech and chip stocks rallied.

The tech-heavy index ended with gains of 0.90% to close at an all-time high at 16,091.92. The S&P 500 also closed at a record, rising 0.52% to hit 5,096.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked higher by 0.12%.

Data overnight showed, U.S. inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to a key gauge the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs rose 0.4% in January and 2.8% from a year earlier, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Asia markets: China manufacturing data, South Korea closed (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures edge higher after the market wraps its 4th winning month in a row: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, MAR 1 20241 2:22 AM EST

Stock futures edged higher Friday after the market wrapped up its fourth winning month and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached its first closing record since November 2021.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 20 points higher. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures added about 0.2%.

Troubled regional bank New York Community Bancorp shed a whopping 20% in extended trading after the lender announced a leadership change and disclosed issues with its internal controls. The bank is already down more than 50% in 2024.

Major averages ended another positive month as the rally driven by an artificial intelligence boom and hopes for rate cuts chugged along. The Nasdaq was the best performer in February with a 6.1% gain. The S&P 500 climbed 5.2%, while the Dow added 2.2% for its first four-month winning streak since May 2021.

“We’re still firmly in the disinflationary camp and think the Fed will be forced to cut rates by June,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.

Thursday’s gains came after inflation data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, rose 0.4% in January, in line with expectations.

Bitcoin pulled off a fierce rally in February, up nearly 45% to top $62,000. It’s the token’s best month since December 2020 as well as its sixth-straight monthly gain.

On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 is tracking for a roughly 0.2% advance, while the Nasdaq is up 0.6%. The 30-stock Dow is the laggard, down nearly 0.4%.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

AI is driving a market bubble that’s unlikely to burst, veteran advisor says

As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence, and global stock indexes notch record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a “bubble.”

That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value — and risk crashing just as fast.

Bob Parker, senior advisor at trade body International Capital Markets Association, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday he saw signs of a bubble based on two of three main characteristics.

“The first [characteristic] is obviously looking at valuations. If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high indeed,” Parker said, adding that the second sign is investor positioning.

“Whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector.

“And it doesn’t matter whether you look at the U.S. or Europe or some of the Asian markets, you know, we’ve got this historic wide valuation between the tech sector, and obviously AI as a sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.. Investors are very clustered in that tech sector,” Parker said.

The topic has been dividing market watchers. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Monday that he does not see AI as a bubble, emphasizing: “When we had the internet bubble the first time around … that was hype. This is not hype. It’s real.” 

Yet Torsten Sløk, chief economist at asset manager Apollo, published a chart this month, comparing the valuations of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 with their counterparts during the 1990s boom and calling the “current AI bubble... bigger than the 1990s tech bubble.”

While he acknowledged the signs of a bubble, Parker is less concerned that it is on the brink of a burst.

His optimism is rooted in the third characteristic of a bubble — investor leverage, or the use of debt for funding.

More

Veteran advisor sees signs of a market bubble — but not of it bursting (cnbc.com)

 

Asia's factories struggle for growth as China, Japan falter

March 1, 2024 6:05 AM GMT

March 1 (Reuters) - Asia's major manufacturing economies struggled to claw their way out of decline in February with Japan particularly squeezed by a steeper fall in demand while an uneven recovery in China overshadowed some signs of improvement elsewhere in the region.

A raft of business surveys released on Friday highlighted a patchy performance across Asia with Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) showing factory activity falling at the fastest pace in more than three years.

There were more mixed signals out of China with the government's official PMI showing factory activity continuing to fall, in contrast to a slight pick up seen in the private-sector Caixin PMI.

"February PMI data indicated another month of deteriorating operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector," said Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Depressed demand in domestic and international markets continued to weigh on sector performance, as both production and new orders fell at the strongest rate for a year."

Worryingly, recent data suggests the weakness seen in Japan in the second half of last year has extended into the first quarter of 2024, complicating the Bank of Japan's task as it looks to exit ultra-easy monetary policy.

Japan unexpectedly slipped into recession in the fourth quarter and lost its title as the world's third-largest economy to Germany as consumer and business spending weakened.

Its PMI followed official Japanese data this week that showed factory output falling at the fastest pace since May 2020, weighed by a downturn in motor vehicle production.

China's patchy performance comes amid signs the world's second-largest economy is tentatively finding its footing after a deep slump caused by a property sector crisis.

Investors are looking ahead to China's annual meeting of parliament next week where policymakers will face pressure to do more to get the economy back on track.

Elsewhere in Asia, semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan also saw factory activity decline at a somewhat sharper pace.

More

Asia's factories struggle for growth as China, Japan falter | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Japan factory output falls at the fastest pace in nearly 4 years

By Satoshi Sugiyama 

TOKYO, Feb 29 (Reuters) - Japan's January factory output fell at the fastest pace since May 2020, government data showed on Thursday, as a production downturn in motor vehicles adds to concerns about the fragility of an economy that slipped into recession late last year.

Industrial output fell 7.5% in January from the previous month, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) showed. It was slightly worse than the median market forecast for a 7.3% drop, with output sliding in 14 of the 15 industries surveyed by METI.

The ministry also downgraded its assessment of industrial output for the first time since July last year, laying bare the challenges for the economy as it tries to recover from a recession at the end of last year.

Analysts at Capital Economics say the data suggest GDP may have contracted again in the current quarter.

"The plunge in industrial production January suggests that GDP will fall yet again this quarter, which will add to the view that Japan's economy is in recession," said Gabriel Ng, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

Production declined the most in motor vehicles, down 17.8% in January from the previous month. Output decreases in regular passenger cars and electrical drives systems pulled down the overall figures.

Japanese automaker Toyota Motor (7203.T), opens new tab in January suspended shipments of some models after finding irregularities in certification tests for diesel engines developed by affiliate Toyota Industries (6201.T), opens new tab.

More

Japan factory output falls at the fastest pace in nearly 4 years | Reuters

Dip in euro zone inflation bolsters case for ECB easing

FRANKFURT, Feb 29 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation dipped further this month, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to start easing interest rates from record highs later this year, data from some of the euro zone's biggest economies showed on Thursday.

The ECB has kept interest rates at record highs since September but talk has decisively shifted to cuts as price growth is now moving closer to target, even if some crucial areas like services and wage growth remain a concern.

Inflation eased in France, Spain and many of Germany's largest states, while labour market slack in Germany, the 20-nation euro zone's biggest economy, increased a touch, potentially pointing to some easing wage pressures, national authorities said.

The figures suggest that euro zone inflation, to be published on Friday, will show a slowdown to around 2.5% in February from 2.8% January, moving even closer to the ECB's own 2% target.

"Overall, today's prints show that the disinflation process continues in the euro zone and suggest we will see a small decline in the February print," Leo Barincou at Oxford Economics said in a note.

In France, EU harmonised inflation dipped to 3.1% from 3.4% while in Spain, it slowed to 2.9% from 3.5%. In Germany, most states reported big dips, suggesting that a fall to 2.7% from 3.1% as expected by economists, was realistic.

More

Dip in euro zone inflation bolsters case for ECB easing | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Covid-19 may have small but lasting impact on brain function, study suggests

February 29, 2024

Covid-19 may have a small but lasting impact on people’s thinking and memory skills more than a year after infection, a study suggests.

More than 140,000 people in the UK took online tests to measure the changes in different aspects of their brain function including concentration, reasoning, memory, spatial planning and other skills, between August and December 2022.

Results, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, revealed “small deficits” in the cognitive performance of people who had recovered from Covid-19, when compared with those who had not had the disease.

This also included people who had Covid-19 symptoms for more than 12 weeks after infection – or long Covid – that had eventually resolved, the researchers said.

Deficits in brain function were found to be greater for people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 or infected with earlier coronavirus variants, such as the original “wild type” virus or alpha.

These deficits were still detectable a year or more after infection, even in people who recovered quickly, the researchers said.

Reassuringly, they added, people who had longer-lasting Covid-19 symptoms that had resolved by the time they did the tests had deficits that were similar in size to those who had shorter recovery times.

We were able to detect small but measurable deficits in cognitive task performance Prof Adam Hampshire

Professor Paul Elliott, senior study author and director of the React programme, from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said: “It is reassuring that people with persistent symptoms after Covid-19, that had resolved, may expect to experience some improvement in their cognitive functions to similar levels as those who experienced short illness.

“Furthermore, the cognitive impact of Covid-19 appears to have reduced since the early stages of the pandemic, with fewer people having persistent illness, and cognition being less affected amongst those that were infected during the time when Omicron was the dominant strain.

“However, given the large numbers of people who were infected, it will be important to continue to monitor the long-term clinical and cognitive consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.”

People also showed small deficits in some tasks that required spatial planning or verbal reasoning, the researchers said.

More

Covid-19 may have small but lasting impact on brain function, study suggests (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

A new idea could supercharge battery performance for electric vehicles and beyond

February 28, 2024

Scientists are racing to make breakthroughs in battery technology, the cornerstone of global electrification, so they charge faster, last longer and cope better with fluctuations in temperature.

Batteries are a key part of fighting the climate crisis not only because they can power electric vehicles but also store clean energy created by renewable sources like solar panels and wind turbines.

New findings, detailed in a research paper published on Wednesday, suggested that a lithium-ion battery could be improved by altering its electrolyte, the solution that allows it to charge and discharge. Lithium ion is currently the main battery type for EVs and clean energy storage.

Researchers from Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, and the Beijing Institute of Technology, said that making improvements to the electrolyte was challenging because it needed both high conductivity and low solvation energy, which can limit the cycle life of batteries.

The team used a solvent called fluoroacetonitrile, a chemical made up of small molecules, and said that it had improved how lithium ions move through the electrolyte. The result was high conductivity which allowed the battery to be charged faster.

What’s more, the battery performance remained high, even when tested at extremely low temperatures of minus 65 degrees Celsius. Battery life is often compromised at low temperatures.

The research not only holds promise for the development of lithium-ion batteries but for other types of energy storage systems, the researchers said.

The US Department of Energy announced in November that it was investing $3.5bn in companies that produce batteries and their critical mineral components.

The US government expects that demand for lithium ion batteries will be ten-fold by the end of the decade.

But there is growing concern around lithium-ion batteries catching fire. Lithium-ion batteries that power e-bikes was named as the cause of a fire which tore through an apartment building in Harlem, New York last week, killing a 27-year-old journalist.

Four people died after a lithium-ion battery caught fire in an e-bike store in New York in June 2023 and spread to apartments above. In December, a fire broke out on a cargo ship carrying nearly 2,000 tons of lithium-ion batteries off Alaska’s coast.

A new idea could supercharge battery performance for electric vehicles and beyond (msn.com)

Another weekend and another deadly war weekend in the Gaza Ghetto and in Ukraine. Why? Have a great weekend everyone.

Israel has killed more than 25,000 Palestinian women and children since the Oct 7 attack by militant group Hamas, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday.

The Daily Telegraph.

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