Baltic
Dry Index. 2297 +94 Brent Crude 83.55
Spot Gold 2117 US 2 Year Yield 4.61 +0.07
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
In
the stock casinos, more AI FOMO hype from the perma-bulls peddling AI dreams,
though Asian markets seem underwhelmed by China’s rubber stamp “Two Sessions” meeting
underway.
In
China, soon to be exported to Europe and North America, an EV price war has
broken out. Did the Tesla bubble just burst?
Gold
soars to new highs, if not yet on an inflation adjusted historical basis. Under that metric, the early 1980 gold price
is still about another 1,000 US 2024 dollars higher.
Asia markets mixed as China’s ‘Two Sessions’
meeting gets underway; Hong Kong down almost 2%
UPDATED MON, MAR 4 2024 11:42 PM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets are mixed as China’s “Two Sessions” meeting got under way, with
investors watching out for the details of its economic plans after the country
projected a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for 2024.
The country would boost its
defense spending by 7.2% in 2024. It expects the inflation rate
to rise to “around 3%.”
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led
losses in Asia and slid 1.9%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index rose
0.5%.
Separately, the Caixin services
purchasing managers’ index reading for China will be released later in the day.
South Korea’s revised GDP figures
showed its economy grew 0.6% for the fourth quarter of 2023, while Japan’s
capital city of Tokyo’s inflation rebounded from a 22-month low in February.
South Korea’s Kospi also
slipped 0.48%, and the small-cap Kosdaq shed 0.65%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1%,
reversing earlier losses and continuing to push all-time highs above the 40,000
mark. The broad based Topix also gained 0.48%.
The Taiwan weighted
index also
edged 0.66% higher to hit a record high.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
trading nearly flat.
On the commodities front, gold
futures settled at a record high on Monday as traders bet the Federal
Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.
Futures reached $2,126.30, before falling slightly to $2,115.38 per ounce currently.
Asia
markets live updates: China Two Sessions, gold price (cnbc.com)
Stock futures slip after Nasdaq Composite
retreats from record: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, MAR 5 2024 12:42 AM EST
U.S. stock
futures ticked lower Tuesday after the Nasdaq Composite retreated
from its record high.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped
77 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500
futures inched
down 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell
roughly 0.4%.
In after-hours action, shares of GitLab tumbled
more than 20% after the software company posted a weak forecast for the full
year.
During Monday’s main trading
session, the S&P 500 dropped
0.12%, and the tech-forward Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.41%. This came on the
back of the two indexes’ record closing highs on Friday. The Dow also
slipped nearly 98 points, or 0.25%.
Chipmakers Nvidia and Super Micro Computer continued
their run, gaining more than 3% and 18%, respectively. Meanwhile, other mega
cap tech names struggled and pulled the market lower. Apple lost
2.5% after the European Commission fined the
company nearly $2 billion. Tesla,
which fell more than 7% following new price discounts, led the broad market
index’s losses.
Overall, large cap tech companies
are still the best way to play the artificial intelligence trend, Jason Draho,
UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime”
on Monday. “They’re still the ones that have the scale to kind of benefit.
Their valuations are extreme but they’re also growing incredibly fast.”
Draho said although there are
fears of “pent-up exuberance” in the market similar to 1996, he thinks there’s
still more upside potential ahead.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
China EV shares are feeling the heat as price
war concerns grow
Chinese electric vehicle makers shares listed in
Hong Kong fell on Tuesday as worries of price wars in the sector grew.
China’s EV market, the world’s
largest and most crowded, is seeing fierce competition from local players as
well as U.S. giants like Tesla to
win as much market share as possible through promotions and price cuts.
“While across the board price cuts will put pressure on near-term earnings
and margins, this could be offset by a boost in demand as EVs widen their
appeal to a broader range of consumers,” Yuqian Ding, head of China auto
research at HSBC Qianhai told CNBC.
While consumer interest is
improving, the “wait for a better price” sentiment continues to constrain sales
volumes for EV makers, Ding said.
At least 30% of China’s entire auto market is made
up of electric vehicles, with most of those EVs coming from homegrown brands.
On Tuesday, most
Chinese EVs continued to face pressure. Hong Kong-listed shares of Li Auto fell
3.9%, while Nio shares
dropped 3.6% and Xpeng was
down 1.8%. BYD shares
were up 0.4%.
Nio is set to
report its December quarter earnings later in the day.
Competition
in the country’s EV space has intensified, with local automakers pushing to
outsell U.S. rival Tesla with fancy
tech and competitive pricing.
Tesla announced new
incentives to lure consumers in China on Friday, including
discounts in car insurance products, and preferential financing plans for a
limited time only.
Despite price cuts
announced earlier, Tesla
still lost market share in China in January, mainly in the
large cities, according to Morgan Stanley.
Li Auto launched a
new EV called “Mega” — a multi purpose
vehicle priced at 559,800 Chinese yuan ($77,756), and scheduled to start
deliveries in March. The minivan comes equipped with a built-in
refrigerator and sofa.
More
China
EV shares are feeling the heat as price war concerns grow (cnbc.com)
Next
up, other China news.
China sets GDP 2024 target of ‘around 5%,’
plans to issue ‘ultra-long’ special bonds for major projects
BEIJING — China set a
growth target of “around 5%” for 2024 and announced the issuance of
“ultra-long” special bonds for major projects, according to a government work
report Tuesday.
Premier Li Qiang, who
delivered the report, also pledged that China would remove restrictions for
foreign investment in manufacturing.
China set a
deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year, down from a rare upward revision to
3.8% late last year from the original 3%.
The work report also
said Beijing will issue 1 trillion yuan ($138.9 billion) in “ultra-long”
special treasury bonds this year to fund major projects aligned with national
strategies, while 3.9 trillion yuan of special-purpose bonds for local
governments will be issued this year, 100 billion yuan more than last year.
“We should
appropriately enhance the intensity of our proactive fiscal policy and improve
its quality and effectiveness,” the work report said.
The on-budget deficit
excludes special bonds, policy bank bonds and local government financing
vehicle debt, according to Louise Loo, lead economist at Oxford Economics, who
last week forecast a 3% to 3.5% deficit.
An IMF report earlier
this year said its conversations with Chinese officials indicated they viewed
last year’s fiscal policy as proactive.
“The ultra-long-term
special treasury bonds issued on a trial basis will not be included in the
deficit, and can be issued at an appropriate time based on market and economic
conditions under the trend of moderately increasing leverage of the central government
to ensure flexibility,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist for the property
consultancy JLL, in a CNBC translation of his comments.
More
China sets
GDP target of 'around 5%' for 2024 (cnbc.com)
China boosts military spending by 7.2%,
vows to ‘resolutely’ deter Taiwan ‘separatist activities’
China is set to increase its defense spending by
7.2% to 1.67 trillion yuan in 2024, according to a budget report released by
the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday, as part of the country’s annual
parliamentary meetings in Beijing.
This year’s military budget
announcement comes against the backdrop of several generals from the People’s
Liberation Army, including the country’s previous Defense Minister Li Shangfu,
losing their positions amid President Xi Jinping’s broad anti-corruption probe
in the past year.
China’s 2024 military budget expansion follows a
7.2% increase last year, a
7.1% spike in 2022, 6.8% increase in 2021, 6.6% climb in 2020
and 7.5% growth in 2019, according to official data.
China’s official military budget is
second only to the United States in the world, though some unofficial estimates
suggest the scale of Beijing’s military spending may be larger than officially claimed.
China maintains its claims
over self-governed Taiwan and President Xi Jinping regards
reunification as a “historical inevitability.” In the government work report
also released Tuesday, Beijing vowed to “resolutely oppose separatist
activities aimed at ‘Taiwan independence’ and external interference.”
From land border skirmishes with
India a few years ago to confrontations in the South China Sea with Southeast
Asian countries more recently, tensions
have heightened between Beijing and its neighbors.
On Tuesday, the Philippines accused
China’s coast guard of “dangerous
maneuvers” that led to a collision between a Chinese vessel and one
of its vessels on its way to the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
More
China ups
military spending by 7.2%, vows to deter Taiwan 'separatist activities'
(cnbc.com)
Finally,
the US warms up. But is/will this be good or bad for US farming?
Detroit,
Buffalo set record highs in 70s as warm air swarms Great Lakes
March
4, 2024
7:40 p.m. — Many
more warm weather records set, including in Cleveland, Detroit and Buffalo.
As expected, numerous record highs
were set Monday afternoon from the Midwest to the Great Lakes. Here are few of
the notables:
- Buffalo hit 72 degrees,
topping the previous high mark of 63.
- Detroit hit 74 degrees,
topping the previous high mark of 69.
- Cleveland hit 77 degrees,
topping the previous high mark of 76.
Somewhat cooler weather is forecast
for most of the Great Lakes region Tuesday, but record highs could again be
challenged in western New York while a second pocket of record warmth is
possible between Dallas and Houston, where highs will soar well into the 80s.
Original
article from late Monday morning
Another wave of abnormally warm weather is swelling
across the Midwest and through the Northeast just days after the Lower 48
states clinched their warmest winter in more than a century of observations.
Already, more than 200 warm-weather records have
occurred in the early days of March, and dozens more are on the way Monday.
Multiple locations from Kansas to Michigan witnessed
their warmest day so early in the calendar year on Sunday as highs soared into
the 70s and 80s. Minneapolis hit 74 degrees, which is a typical high over
Memorial Day weekend.
On Monday, record-warm weather is
predicted to expand eastward into Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo. The warm, humid
air could fuel a few strong thunderstorms from Houston to Chicago.
The warmth keeps spreading over the
central and eastern United States at the same time cold weather has been
notably absent in Canada, a key source region for frigid air in North America.
The lack of cold is attributable to both human-caused climate change and the El
Niño climate pattern.
The warmth first oozed into the Upper
Midwest late last week.
Minneapolis tied a record high of 59
degrees on Friday and set a record of 63 on Saturday. Its high of 74 on Sunday
was the warmest on record, not only for that day but also for the entire first
half of March. It surpassed is previous March 3 record by 9 degrees.
----From the Midwest to New
England, dozens of warm-weather records are forecast on Monday.
Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit and
Buffalo are all forecast to climb into the 70s, or up 30 to 35 degrees above
average.
It will be notably warmer to the
south. From Texas to the Mid-South, 80s are probable on Monday. By Tuesday,
parts of southern Texas could reach the 90s, while Houston has a chance to set
a record high in the mid-80s.
More
Detroit,
Buffalo set record highs in 70s as warm air swarms Great Lakes (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Wall
Street titans like Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, and Jeffrey Gundlach are still
worried about a recession — and warn investors are too complacent
March
2, 2024
- Some Wall Street
heavyweights aren't ready to rule out a US recession yet.
- JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon,
Goldman's David Solomon, and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach are among them.
- Their worries include
cash-strapped consumers, a softening job market, and a fiscal hangover.
Recession fears have faded this
year as the US economy keeps chugging along, stocks have soared to record
highs, and the Federal Reserve has signaled it could begin cutting interest
rates within months.
Yet several top-tier
executives, economists, and investors still see reason to worry — and aren't
ready to rule out a hard landing yet.
Here's a roundup of recent
recession warnings from six experts:
1. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan
Chase CEO
There's a long history of
investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week.
"Before any crash, you
felt great, and then still things change," the billionaire bank chief
said.
Dimon said the American
economy might still be floating on the fumes of aggressive government spending,
and interest rates could still climb higher.
While
the market is pricing in a "70% or 80% chance we will have a soft
landing," he said, "I give it half that."
Dimon emphasized the full
impact of fiscal stimulus, quantitative tightening, budget deficits, and
geopolitical turmoil wouldn't be felt for years.
"I'm kind of cautious about everything,"
he said, adding that a recession could rattle weaker banks and slam the private
credit and real estate sectors.
2. David Solomon, Goldman
Sachs CEO
"The world is set up for
a soft landing," Solomon said at a UBS conference this week. "My own
view is it's a little bit more uncertain that."
The investment-banking titan
said the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars would likely be inflationary and
a "headwind to global growth."
Solomon added that several
business leaders had told him that spending was down among lower-income
consumers, and that part of the economy was a "little bit softer."
He was nodding to the fact
that resilient consumer spending has helped stave off a recession so far, but
households are being squeezed by both inflation and steeper borrowing
costs, raising concerns their
shopping sprees won't last much longer.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Approx. 12 minutes.
Excess
deaths, MPs request data
Excess
deaths, MPs request data (youtube.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
More on the growing collapse of the
market for EVs. Approx. 8 minutes.
EV
Demise: Apple CANCELS EV plans; Aston Martin DELAYS electrification | MGUY
Australia
Self-extinguishing
lithium battery puts out its own fires
Loz Blain February 06, 2024
----Handle
high-density batteries with care; enough said. But researchers from Clemson
University and Hunan University say they've made a breakthrough on a solution.
The team has created a new
type of rechargeable lithium battery by replacing the typical,
highly-combustible electrolyte fluid with ... well, more or less the stuff
you'd normally find in a fire extinguisher. Instead of using the normal,
flammable organic solvents for the battery electrolyte, the researchers used a
modified version of 3M's Novec
7300 non-flammable heat transfer
fluid.
----The self-extinguishing
electrolyte performed well in both lithium and potassium-ion batteries,
refusing to catch fire even when nails were driven through them.
The fire
extinguisher solution performed well as an electrolyte, too, working well
between -100 to 175 °F (-75 to 80 °C), handling extreme hot and cold
significantly better than conventional electrolytes, and in some cases
retaining battery capacity over a considerably higher number of charge cycles.
And the best news?
It seems it should be remarkably easy to roll out at commercial scale.
The research has been published
in the journal Nature
Sustainability.
Source: The Conversation
Self-extinguishing lithium battery puts out its own
fires (newatlas.com)
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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