Monday, 11 March 2024

Stocks, Something About Rats And Ships Comes To Mind.

Baltic Dry Index. 2345 +169          Brent Crude  81.55

Spot Gold 2178                    US 2 Year Yield 4.48 -0.02

The US central bank’s bank bailout program, the Bank Term Fundin Program, ends today.  How long before regional and local US banks get into trouble?

In the stock casinos, more wobble, that if this is the top, the punters should be selling stocks and raising cash.

After all, with the Fed’s BTFP bank rescue program ending today, how long before the first US banks start crashing out of the trees and smashing into the ground?

 

Japan’s Nikkei falls almost 3%, leading losses in Asia; China exits deflation territory as consumer prices rise

UPDATED MON, MAR 11 2024 1:14 AM EDT

Japan stocks led losses in the Asia-Pacific region after the country averted a technical recession, paving the way for its central bank to raise rates, while investors also assessed China’s inflation numbers.

The Nikkei 225 plunged almost 3%, led by technology stocks, slipping below the 39,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 21, as revised official data showed Japan’s GDP expanded 0.4% in the October-December period last year. The Topix declined 2.98%.

Separately, China recorded its first month of inflation after four months of deflation with the country’s consumer price index climbing 0.7% year on year in February.

The CPI, which had fallen 0.8% in January, and also beat expectations of 0.3% from economists polled by Reuters.

South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.46%, and the small-cap Kosdaq was up marginally.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 started the week down 1.83%, retreating from its all-time high and snapping a three-day winning streak.

However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index bucked the wider downturn and gained 1.28%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 rose 0.8%.

On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes lost ground as with artificial intelligence darling Nvidia finishing down more than 5% in its worst session since late May.

More

Asia markets live updates: China inflation, BOJ raise interest rates, Japan avoids technical recession (cnbc.com)

European markets set to start the week on a negative note

UPDATED MON, MAR 11 2024 1:30 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a negative open to start the new trading week, following declines in the Asia-Pacific region overnight.

Japan stocks led losses in Asia-Pacific markets after the country averted a technical recession, paving the way for its central bank to raise rates, while investors also assessed China’s inflation numbers.

U.S. stock futures fell slightly Sunday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out its worst week since October. Investors are also looking ahead to inflation data due out later this week.

European markets set to start the week on a negative note (cnbc.com)

Stock futures fall slightly after Dow’s worst week since October: Live updates

UPDATED MON, MAR 11 2024 1:21 AM EDT

U.S. stock futures fell on Monday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out its worst week since October. Investors are also looking ahead to inflation data due out later this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 74 points, or 0.19%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.21% and 0.34%, respectively.

Wall Street is coming off a losing week for the major averages. The 30-stock Dow slid 0.93% last week, marking its worst performance since October. The S&P 500 dipped 0.26%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.17%.

Investors took profits in some market leaders as exceedingly high valuations have many concerned stocks could be due for a pullback after this year’s rally. Five of the Magnificent Seven companies declined last week, with Nvidia and Meta Platforms alone pulling away from the pack.

The February jobs data on Friday also gave investors mixed signals as to when the Federal Reserve could be expected to cut interest rates. While the U.S. economy added more jobs than economists anticipated, a higher unemployment rate and lighter-than-expected wage growth were encouraging signals the central bank could start easing up on monetary policy.

Investors will seek more signs of progress on inflation this week. February’s consumer and producer price indexes — that are set to release Tuesday and Thursday, respectively — come after January’s surprisingly hot report dashed hopes the path toward the Fed’s 2% target will be easy. Traders will get their last major economic reports before Fed leaders convene for their March policy meeting.

“We aren’t counting on the Fed to cut rates at its meeting later this month,” wrote Mike Dickson, head of research at Horizon Investments. “Given this recent spike, we expect the Fed to hold off until it sees at least three consecutive months of lower core services inflation. That means June at the earliest—and later in 2024 if services inflation stays sticky.”

On the earnings from, the software platform Oracle is set to report on Monday after the close.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Mar. 10, 2024 6:30 AM ET

The consumer price index report for February will be closely watched next week. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month for February and be up 0.3% once the food and energy categories are stripped out. Inflation is expected to show a 3.1% year-over-year increase for the month. Other economic reports that are due to be released include the producer price index report, the retail sales report, and the latest reading from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

After adding it all up, investors may walk away with new interest rate expectations. Currently, Goldman Sachs thinks the first rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada will be in June. However, there is less clarity around the forecast with central bankers reluctant to provide guidance too far in advance. Sizing up the FOMC tea leaves, Seeking Alpha Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller expects to see softer payroll data and a continuation of the disinflationary trend that would then allow the Federal Reserve to reduce rates sooner, with the economy on track for a soft landing.

More

Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha

Hmm, something about rats leaving ships comes to mind.

 

Do they know something we don't? American titans Jeff Bezos, Leon Black, Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon and Walmart's Walton family sell a staggering $11 BILLION in stock - as billionaires cash out before looming election.

March 10, 2024

American billionaires are selling stocks by the boatload - sparking fears of an impending financial disaster.

Jeff Bezos - the third-richest man behind Louis Vuitton's Bernard Arnaut and Elon Musk - unloaded $8.5billion in Amazon shares this month alone.

Mark Zuckerberg - the fourth-richest - sold about 1.4 million Meta shares worth roughly $638million.

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan, shilled $150 million this past week, in his first cash-out since taking the reins at the bank nearly two decades ago.

Within days, Apollo Global Management's Leon Black also enacted his first-ever sale, shedding $172.8million in his equity firm after 34 years. Walmart's Walton family sold $1.5billion in a week, bringing its total sale proceeds to $2.3billion since December.

The series of transactions were all made within weeks of each other, and have already sparked conversation amongst onlookers.

Experts this week theorized the sales could be the result of the looming election, and as the S&P 500 index - a decent measure of the larger economy - remains at an all-time high.

'If you're reading the tea leaves and looking at what may happen with our politics in the next year or so, things are pretty good right now - the markets are up,' finance firm consultant Alan Johnson told Fortune late last month.

The staffer at Manhattan-based Johnson Associates went on to suggest the sales could be the result of potentially volatile fall, to coincide with the upcoming general election.

'With our politics and everything else going on geopolitically, maybe it won't be as good a year from now or two years from now,' he conceded.

More

Do they know something we don't? American titans Jeff Bezos, Leon Black, Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon and Walmart's Walton family sell a staggering $11 BILLION in stock - as billionaires cash out before looming election (msn.com)

Somebody has to be on the other side.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Slow US Inflation Retreat Is Set to Bolster Fed Patience on Rate Cuts

Sun, 10 March 2024 at 7:03 am GMT

(Bloomberg) -- Inflation in the US probably abated only gradually last month and retail sales rebounded, illustrating why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to lower interest rates.

The core consumer price index, a measure that excludes food and fuel for a better picture of underlying inflation, is seen rising 0.3% in February from a month earlier after a 0.4% advance to start the year. The Labor Department will issue its CPI report on Tuesday.

The price gauge is projected to have risen 3.7% from a year ago, which would mark the smallest annual advance since April 2021. While the year-over-year figure is well below the 6.6% peak reached in 2022, the pace of progress more recently has been modest.

That squares with congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the past week, who said that while it would likely be appropriate to cut rates “at some point this year,” he and his colleagues aren’t ready yet.

That’s because the Fed wants convincing signs that inflation is nearing their 2% target, based on a separate gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index. In addition to the CPI, the government’s producer price index on Thursday will help inform the PCE index, which will be released after the US central bank’s March 19-20 policy meeting.

Fed officials will observe a blackout period for speaking engagements ahead of that meeting.

Away from inflation, there are scant signs of stress in the economy. The latest jobs report pointed to moderating yet healthy employment growth that will keep consumer spending afloat.

Government figures on Thursday are expected to show a 0.8% advance in February retail sales following a drop of the same magnitude a month earlier. Such an outcome would indicate a return of shoppers who took a breather after a strong holiday-shopping season.

Other US data in the coming week include February industrial production and the University of Michigan’s preliminary March consumer sentiment index.

More

Slow US Inflation Retreat Is Set to Bolster Fed Patience on Rate Cuts (yahoo.com)

Wall Street is growing more worried about 1970s-style stagflation risks

March 7, 2024

Some Wall Street strategists are growing concerned the U.S. economy could be headed toward a 1970s-style stagflation scenario amid recent signs that progress on inflation is stalling.

Back-to-back consumer price index reports in December and January came in above estimates, fueling fears that high inflation could be more difficult to conquer than previously believed. 

"We believe that there is a risk of the narrative turning back from Goldilocks towards something like 1970s stagflation, with significant implications for asset allocation," JPMorgan chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients at the end of February.

Stagflation is the combination of economic stagnation and high inflation, characterized by soaring consumer prices as well as high unemployment. 

The phenomenon ravaged the U.S. economy in the 1970s and early 1980s, as spiking oil prices, rising unemployment and easy monetary policy pushed the consumer price index as high as 14.8% in 1980, forcing Federal Reserve policymakers to raise interest rates to nearly 20% that year. 

"There are many similarities to the current times," Kolanovic said. "We already had one wave of inflation, and questions started to appear whether a second wave can be avoided if policies and geopolitical developments stay on this course."

Stagflation fears surged in 2022 as the Fed began aggressively hiking interest rates to quell raging inflation, but those mostly dissipated last year amid signs that price pressures were subsiding without a substantial hit to economic growth. 

However, there have been some signs recently that inflation is proving to be stickier than expected. While inflation has fallen considerably from a peak of 9.1%, progress has largely flatlined since the summer.

"The threat of resurgent inflation is a major reason investors should fear a potential stagflation," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street. "Extraordinary government spending, structural imbalances in supply and demand with the labor and housing markets, deglobalization and more are contributing to inflationary pressures."

More

Wall Street is growing more worried about 1970s-style stagflation risks (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, something a little different.  Are micro plastics causing heart attacks?

Scientists study if tiny specks of plastic in our body can cause heart attacks

March 8, 2024

We breathe, eat and drink tiny particles of plastic. But are these minuscule specks in the body harmless, dangerous or somewhere in between?

A small study published in the New England Journal of Medicine raises more questions than it answers about how these bits — microplastics and the smaller nanoplastics — might affect the heart.

The Italian study is likely to draw attention to the debate over the problem of plastic pollution.

“The study is intriguing. However, there are really substantial limitations,” said Dr. Steve Nissen, a heart expert at the Cleveland Clinic. “It’s a wake-up call that perhaps we need to take the problem of microplastics more seriously. As a cause for heart disease? Not proven. As a potential cause? Yes, maybe.”

The study involved 257 people who had surgery to clear blocked blood vessels in their necks. Italian researchers analyzed the fatty buildup that the surgeons removed from the carotid arteries, which supply blood and oxygen to the brain.

Using two methods, they found evidence of plastics — mostly invisible nanoplastics — in the artery plaque of 150 patients and no evidence of plastics in 107 patients.

They followed these people for three years. During that time, 30 or 20% of those with plastics had a heart attack, stroke or died from any cause, compared to eight or about 8% of those with no evidence of plastics.

The researchers also found more evidence of inflammation in the people with the plastic bits in their blood vessels. Inflammation is the body's response to injury and is thought to raise the risk of heart attacks and strokes.

More

Scientists study if tiny specks of plastic in our body can cause heart attacks (msn.com)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

More on so you really, really, really want to drive an EV. Apart from the fact that the public doesn’t need or want them, who will take on the risk of shipping them and at what cost?

Volkswagen hit with 2 lawsuits claiming that a Porsche EV battery triggered the massive 2022 fire that sank a  cargo ship with thousands of cars on board

BYKARIN MATUSSEK AND BLOOMBERG  March 5, 2024 at 9:28 AM GMT

Volkswagen AG faces a pair of lawsuits in Germany over claims it was the battery in a Porsche electric vehicle that triggered the 2022 fire onboard a massive cargo ship that eventually sank with thousands of cars on board.

One of the suits was filed in a court in Stuttgart where VW’s Porsche unit is based. The case was brought by half a dozen plaintiffs, including Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., the ship’s operator, and Allianz SE, one of the insurers of the vessel, according to a spokesman for the tribunal.  

The case was filed a year ago but was recently paused because of mediation talks planned for a second lawsuit over the ship’s that’s currently before a court in Braunschweig. Both cases will resume if no settlement can be reached. A Braunschweig judge plans to hold the talks later this month, according to a tribunal spokesman.

Volkswagen confirmed the suits but declined to comment further. Mitsui didn’t immediately reply to requests for comment. Allianz didn’t have any immediate comment.

The Panama-flagged Felicity Ace caught fire near the Azores archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean two years ago and was left adrift after the crew was rescued. An internal email from VW’s U.S. operations at the time revealed there were 3,965 vehicles aboard the ship. The cargo ship’s loss could have cost the automaker at least $155 million, according to a risk-modeling company’s estimate.

The plaintiffs claim that the fire originated from the lithium-ion battery of a Porsche model and allege VW failed to inform them of the danger and necessary precautions needed to transport such vehicles, according to the Stuttgart court. Although the case was filed a year ago, the judges haven’t yet looked into the merits of the suit as the parties have been quarreling about the amount of collateral that must be posted before it can proceed.

The Stuttgart suit is: LG Stuttgart, 26 O 30/23. The Braunschweig court didn’t provide a docket number. 

Volkswagen hit with 2 lawsuits claiming that a Porsche EV battery triggered the massive 2022 fire that sank a  cargo ship with thousands of cars on board | Fortune Europe

When the government makes loans or subsidies to business, what it does is to tax successful private business in order to support unsuccessful private business.

Henry Hazlitt.

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