Baltic Dry Index. 2176 -115 Brent Crude 82.86
Spot Gold 2154 US 2 Year Yield 4.54 50.01
There is not a line in 'The Wealth of Nations' that is not still applicable to this day.
Milton Friedman.
In the stock casinos a pause or the 2024 top?
It’s probably not the 2024 top, with the US
Fed and global central banks promising to cut interest rates later in the year,
but with two unstoppable wars raging and the dismal prospect in the USA of a
rerun of Biden Joe Biden v Trump in November, smart money insiders on
Wall Street have started selling and getting back into cash.
Look away from the rising gold price now.
Japan stocks
retreat from record highs; China trade data better than expected
UPDATED THU, MAR 7 2024 12:55 AM EST
Japan stock
indexes retreated from record highs Thursday, while investors assessed
better-than-expected trade data from China.
The Nikkei 225 hit
a record high before trading 1.2% lower. The broader Topix lost 0.24%, also
after hitting a record high earlier in the session.
The Taiwan weighted
index jumped
over 1%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.39% to end at 7,763.7, both scaling new peaks.
Asia stocks rose following
comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated his
stance that while the central bank could start cutting rates, it was “not immediately ready.”
China CSI 300 index fell 0.5%, while the Hang Seng index dipped
0.46%. China’s dollar-denominated exports jumped 7.1% year on year for the
first two months of the year, according to official data. It was much higher than a
Reuters poll expectation of a 1.9% rise.
Hong Kong-listed shares of
Chinese e-commerce company JD.com spiked
over 8% after it released better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and
announced a share buyback plan of up to $3 billion, including American
depository shares.
South Korea’s Kospi extended
earlier gains to rise 0.29%, while the Kosdaq lost 0.8%
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
regained ground after two straight days of declines, although some names like Apple, Alphabet and Disney sat
out of the rally.
The S&P 500 added
0.51%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained
0.58%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average traded
higher by 0.2%, although the blue-chip average was weighed down by a drop of
more than 2% in Disney.
Asia
markets live updates: Australia, China trade, Powell testimony (cnbc.com)
Lackluster
open expected for European markets ahead of ECB rate decision
UPDATED THU, MAR 7 2024 12:17 AM EST
European markets are heading for a flat to lower
open ahead of the European
Central Bank’s policy meeting Thursday.
The central bank is convening
amid falling inflation and a slight recovery in economic activity but it is
expected to hold rates at a record 4%. Market expectations are that a rate cut
will come in June.
Elsewhere, Asia
stocks rose overnight after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve
Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. He reiterated his stance that while the
central bank could start cutting rates, it was “not immediately ready.”
U.S.
stock futures inched down Thursday after the major averages
posted their first winning session in three days.
European markets live updates: stocks, news,
data and ECB decision (cnbc.com)
China's
exports top forecasts as global demand returns
By Joe Cash
March
7, 2024 5:46 AM GMT
BEIJING, March 7 (Reuters) - China's
export and import growth in the January-February period beat forecasts,
suggesting global trade is turning a corner in an encouraging signal for
policymakers as they try to shore up a stuttering economic recovery.
China's
improved export data joins those of South
Korea and Germany,
and Taiwan,
who all saw their shipments top expectations over the first two months of the
year, with the Asian economies benefiting from a surge in demand for
semiconductors.
Exports from the world's second-biggest economy in the two months were
7.1% higher than a year before, customs data showed on Thursday, beating a
Reuters a poll that expected an increase of 1.9%. Imports were up 3.5%,
compared with a poll forecast for growth of 1.5%.
"The better-than-forecast data echoes a recovery in global trade
driven by the electronics sector, but also benefits from a low base effect, as
export growth in January-February 2023 was -6.8%," said Xu Tianchen,
senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
The customs agency publishes combined
January and February trade data to smooth out distortions caused by the
shifting timing of the Lunar New Year, which this year fell in February.
Chinese
Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday announced a
2024 economic growth target similar to last year of around 5% and promised to
transform the country's development model, which is heavily reliant on exporting finished
goods and industrial overcapacity.
More
China's
exports top forecasts as global demand returns | Reuters
In other news, is Egypt the Argentina of Africa? More
unravelling of the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money.
Egypt hikes
interest rates by 600 basis points, pound crumbles to record low
Egypt’s pound hit a record low against the dollar on Wednesday after its
central bank hiked interest rates by 600 points and devalued the currency.
The steps were meant to facilitate an agreement with the
International Monetary Fund, which is expected to confirm the extension of its
current $3 billion financial support package for Egypt.
The Egyptian pound was trading at roughly 50 to the dollar
following the announcement, from 30.85 previously, according to LSEG data. The
country’s key interest rate now stands at 27.25%, the central bank said Wednesday.
The development “shows that policymakers are committed to the
turn back toward economic orthodoxy. This is likely to pave the way for an IMF
deal within hours,” James Swanston, a Middle East and North Africa economist at
London-based Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.
“This appears to be a positive step for Egypt on the path out
of its current crisis,” he wrote.
Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country at roughly 110
million people, is facing a protracted shortage of foreign currency. The
country’s moves suggest it is confident that hard currency inflows are on the
horizon, particularly from an investment deal signed last month with the United
Arab Emirates worth $35 billion and the expectation of an agreement with the
IMF for further support.
“The domestic economy has been recently weighed down by
foreign exchange shortages resulting in the existence of a parallel exchange
rate market and constraining economic growth,” Egypt’s central bank said in a
statement, following the meeting of its Special Monetary Policy Committee on
Wednesday.
Cairo has in previous instances pledged to let its currency
trade more freely, but would still step in to control the pound when it fell.
“The announced measures have been
adopted as part of a set of comprehensive economic reforms in coordination with
the Government, and backed by the steadfast support of multilateral and
bilateral partners,” the central bank said. “In preparation for the successful
implementation of these measures, sufficient funding has been secured to avail
foreign exchange liquidity.”
Analysts at S&P Global Market
Intelligence expect further monetary tightening in 2024 to combat inflation and
offset the price increases stemming from Egypt’s weakened pound. They forecast
inflation reaching around 30.3% this year, down slightly from 33.9% in 2023.
They anticipate the rate will ease into the teens in 2025, but only hit single
digits by 2027.
In its comments, Egypt’s monetary
policy committee said it “judges that this tightening brings the monetary
stance to a sufficiently restrictive level, to anchor inflation expectations,
and will be maintained for as long as necessary to achieve the desired
disinflation course.”
Egypt
hikes interest rates by 600 basis points, pound crumbles to record low
(cnbc.com)
Explainer:
How big are Egypt's economic challenges?
By Aidan Lewis and Patrick Werr
March
6, 2024 9:04 PM GMT
March 6 (Reuters) - Egypt has agreed an expanded $8
billion support programme with the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday,
letting its currency depreciate sharply
and announcing that it would allow the exchange rate to be determined by market
forces in a bid for economic stability.
Ahead of the move, Egypt secured a $35 billion
investment deal with Emirati sovereign fund ADQ for the development of a
peninsula on its Mediterranean coast and other projects, easing a long-running
foreign currency crunch.
WHAT CAUSED EGYPT'S ECONOMIC WOES?
Some causes date back decades, such as failed industrial
development due to poor planning and heavy bureaucracy, and export policies
that created a persistent trade deficit.
An over-valued currency, weak property rights and institutions,
and an overbearing state and military have deterred
investment and competition.
A borrowing spree under
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has left Egypt with heavy foreign debt. Foreign
creditors have been shying away, pushing the Cairo government to borrow
domestically even as interest rates surge, spawning bigger deficits.
This, and an expansion of
the money supply, have fuelled currency
depreciation and higher inflation.
Foreign investment outside the oil and gas sector has been
paltry. Remittances in 2022-23 fell 30% to $22 billion as workers abroad backed
away from transfers at the overvalued official exchange rate.
War in the Gaza Strip, on Egypt's northeastern border, has
brought risks to tourism and to Suez Canal
revenues; receipts from the waterway dropped by about 50% earlier this year.
Sisi often blames Egypt's
economic struggles on turmoil following a 2011 popular uprising, as well as annual population
growth that the World Bank put at 1.7% in 2021. Authorities have also pointed
to external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine.
More
Explainer: How big are Egypt's economic challenges? | Reuters
The stock market and economy are two different things.
Milton Friedman.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
What To Expect From February’s CPI Inflation Report
Mar 5, 2024,12:43pm EST
Consumer Price Index
data for February is expected to show relatively high monthly inflation on
nowcast estimates compared to recent data. If this forecast holds, that would
be similar to January, where inflation sees a relatively high monthly increase,
but stays close to 3% in terms of the annual inflation rate.
When Is The February CPI Report?
The U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics will release CPI data for the month of February 2024 on Tuesday, March 12 at 8:30 a.m.
ET. This will come roughly a week ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting on March 20.
Nowcast Estimates Of Inflation
The Cleveland Fed
maintains a nowcast estimate of inflation. These forecasts are not perfect but reasonably
accurate, on average. The models use currently observable market price trends
to estimate what upcoming inflation reports will be.
Currently, headline
CPI is estimated to rise 0.43% for February and 0.32% once food and energy are
stripped out — a measure termed “Core CPI”. For the month of
March, which will be reported in April, the Cleveland Fed’s model currently
estimates that monthly headline and Core CPI will trend lower to 0.25% and
0.3%, respectively. With more March data to come, that forecast will be
updated, though.
The Personal
Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the Fed generally prefers, is
released later in the month. It’s estimated to be 0.31% for February and 0.19%
for March on a headline monthly increase basis. The next PCE update will come
on March 29, after the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
After peaking sharply in mid-2022, the annual
rate of inflation fell abruptly to summer 2023. However, since then, the
decline in inflation has generally been more gradual and less pronounced. In
addition, compared to low monthly increases in the CPI series in late 2023 now.
Monthly inflation may be picking up in early 2024. The result is that inflation
is hovering closer to or above 3% depending on the series used when the Fed’s
goal is 2% annual inflation.
More
What To Expect From February’s CPI Inflation Report (forbes.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
What
happened to the guy who had 217 COVID vaccinations
Rich Haridy March 05, 2024
A man that police caught taking 217 doses
of COVID vaccine has offered himself up to researchers for a study looking into
what happens to the immune system after so many doses. The results offer
surprising insight into these new mRNA vaccines.
In March
2022 a 62-year-old man in Germany was caught by police getting multiple COVID
vaccine shots. It was suspected he had personally received more than 90 doses
as a way of accumulating vaccination cards to sell to people that were avoiding
the jab.
An investigation
ultimately led to no criminal charges, however, a team of researchers from
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg were fascinated by the case.
What exactly did this many COVID vaccinations do to a human immune system?
“We learned about
his case via newspaper articles,” said Kilian Schober, an author on the newly
published case study. “We then contacted him and invited him to undergo various
tests in Erlangen. He was very interested in doing so.”
In chronicling his case, the
man claimed to have received 217 COVID vaccinations, of which more than half
could be verified by clinical records. The vast majority were mRNA doses, with
a small amount of AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, and Sanofi also in the mix. All
the doses spanned a total period of 29 months but most were clustered in a
nine-month stretch from mid-2021.
One of the key things the
researchers set out to look at was whether the man was suffering from what has
been informally referred to as ‘immune exhaustion'. As people around the world
began to receive their third, fourth or fifth COVID vaccine dose, some
researchers emerged to suggest hitting the immune system with the same antigen
over short periods of time could actually be harmful. According to Schober,
this idea comes from observations in patients suffering from chronic viral
infections such as HIV.
“That may be the case in a
chronic infection such as HIV or Hepatitis B, that has regular flare-ups,”
noted Schober. “There is an indication that certain types of immune cells,
known as T-cells, then become fatigued, leading to them releasing fewer pro-inflammatory
messenger substances.”
----Looking at blood work
conducted both recently and over the last couple of years, the man showed
extraordinarily high levels of antibodies and T-cells targeting SARS-CoV-2.
Investigating more general T-cell responses to other antigens, the man’s immune
cells were as effective as any of the control cells. This suggests his immune
system was not fatigued or exhausted and could fight off pathogens as well as
any average person.
Perhaps even more
striking, the researchers report the man displayed no negative side effects
from any of his multiple vaccine doses – even when he was receiving them daily
for weeks on end. On top of that the man reported no history of ever being
infected with SARS-CoV-2.
During the study,
the man even received another COVID vaccine dose, at his insistence, in order
to examine his acute immune response following all of his previous shots. He
had an effective antibody response indicating the vaccine was still doing its
job.
More
What happened to the guy who had 217 COVID vaccinations (newatlas.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
US smashes solar power record but low prices cast a
shadow
Nation installs 32GW as grid-scale additions boom, says
industry body, but tumbling prices could undermine US manufacturing
UPDATED 6 March
2024 9:14 GMT
The US installed a
record 22.5GW of grid-scale solar capacity in 2023, up 77% from the previous
year, as fewer module supply chain constraints enabled completion of many
projects that had been delayed, according to a new report by Solar Energy
Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.
Over 10GW of capacity came online in the fourth quarter, which exceeded
the previous best for the period by more than 4GW.
Grid-scale is the largest US market segment and main industry driver
followed by residential, 6.8GW installed last year; commercial (1.8GW), and
community (1.1GW), noted the report, US solar Market Insight 2023.
Additions across the entire US market were 32.4GW, a 51% increase from
2022, and exceeding 30GW for the first time.
Module availability improved throughout 2023 as the industry imported
record volumes, mainly from four nations in Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Malaysia,
Thailand, and Vietnam.
Imports were at least three times US module manufacturing capacity,
underscoring how dependent the industry here, particularly the grid-scale
segment, is on Chinese-branded product.
---- The report notes that record-low
prices for modules and a tough economic environment could make it difficult for
US manufacturers to follow through on announced facilities. In 2023, prices for
monofacial and bifacial solar modules fell 26% and 31%, respectively.
More
US smashes solar power record but low prices cast a
shadow | Recharge (rechargenews.com)
We economists don't know much, but we do know how to create a shortage. If you want to create a shortage of tomatoes, for example, just pass a law that retailers can't sell tomatoes for more than two cents per pound. Instantly you'll have a tomato shortage. It's the same with oil or gas.
Milton Friedman.
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