Stocks, Bubble On. Inflation? What Inflation?

Baltic Dry Index. 2315 -62               Brent Crude  82.52

Spot Gold 2159                    US 2 Year Yield 4.58 +0.07

There have been unions based on gold or silver, but not on fiat money - money tempted to inflate - put out by politically independent entities.

Milton Friedman.

In the stock casinos, greed continues to trump fear. After all, this time it’s different, right?

We will all get stinking rich front running the coming central bank interest rate cuts, what could possibly go wrong?

After they cut interest rates, we can all sell out to the greater fool buyers who are sure to come rushing in at the top.

What’s not to like? It’s foolproof! Still, what message is the US yield curve sending?

 

Asia markets mixed after U.S. stocks jump on inflation data

UPDATED WED, MAR 13 2024 1:16 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed after Wall Street jumped overnight, following U.S. inflation data that largely met expectations.

The U.S. consumer price index in February climbed 0.4% on the month and 3.2% year over year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday.

Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast a 0.4% increase month on month and 3.1% year over year.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy from the headline reading, climbed 0.4% in February, compared to a forecast gain of 0.3%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended the day up 0.22% at 7,729.40, extending gains from Tuesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed gains to fall 0.13%, while the broad-based Topix also dropped 0.16% after logging gains early in the session.

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.27% after its February unemployment rate came in at 2.6%, down from January’s figure of 3%. The small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.26%, on pace to snap three days of gains.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.3% extending gains after notching a rise of over 3% on Tuesday, with the mainland CSI 300 also down 0.58%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes rose after the inflation readings, with the S&P500 gaining 1.12% and hitting a new record high of 5,175.27.

The Nasdaq Composite also saw a 1.54% gain as investors plunged back into tech names, sending shares of Nvidia and Oracle up 7% and 11% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.61%.

Asia markets live updates: U.S. CPI, South Korea unemployment (cnbc.com)

European markets head for mixed open as investors digest U.S. inflation report

UPDATED WED, MAR 13 2024 1:25 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a mixed open Wednesday as investors digested the latest U.S. inflation report.

Regional markets extended gains on Tuesday after U.S. inflation figures for February showed a rise of 0.4% for the month and an increase of 3.2% from a year ago. That was in line with economists’ monthly forecast but higher than the 3.1% they expected for the annual figure, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

U.S. stocks rallied after the data, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each gaining more than 1%. U.S. stock futures were calm on Tuesday evening after the gains on Wall Street. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight.

Earnings are due from Inditex, Adidas and VW in Europe on Thursday, and data releases include euro zone industrial production figures for January.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 closes at new record high: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, MAR 12 2024 7:47 PM EDT

Stock futures were calm on Tuesday evening after Wall Street saw the S&P 500 close at a fresh high.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 6 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also within 0.1% of the flat line.

The move in futures comes after a rally for stocks on Tuesday that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each gain more than 1%.

The rise for equities came despite a consumer price index that showed inflation was mildly higher than expected in February, further clouding the outlook for when the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates. Notably, stocks jumped even as bond yields moved higher.

“We don’t think it is going to be the Fed that kills this economic cycle. Ultimately what determines the end of this expansion is going to be based on whether we have some kind of shock … Otherwise, you can be in what we would consider late cycle for a considerable amount of time,” Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on “Closing Bell.”

The bull market for stocks has shown signs of broadening out in recent weeks, but chipmaker Nvidia still remains a key bellwether. Shares of Nvidia rose more than 7% on Tuesday, erasing nearly all of their losses from the prior two sessions and bringing the year to date gain to about 86%.

Earnings season is winding down, with Dollar Tree expected to report on Wednesday morning. Homebuilder Lennar is slated to post results after the close.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In commodities news, OPEC sees crude oil demand rising.

 

OPEC sticks to oil demand view, nudges up economic growth again

By Alex Lawler  March 12, 2024 12:32 PM GMT

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, and further raised its economic growth forecast for this year saying there was more room for improvement.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

OPEC's 2024 demand growth forecast is far above that of many other forecasters including the International Energy Agency. OPEC believes oil use will keep rising for the next two decades, while the IEA predicts it will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy.

In the report, OPEC said a "robust dynamic" for economic growth towards the end of 2023 was expected to extend into the first half of 2024 and raised its 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points, following a hike last month.

"While some downside risks persist, a continuation of the expected momentum from the beginning of the year could result in additional upside potential for global economic growth in 2024." OPEC said in the report.

"The 2024 and 2025 growth trajectories of India, China, as well as the United States, could exceed current expectations."

The OPEC report also said that OPEC oil production rose by 203,000 bpd in February to 26.57 million bpd led by Nigeria and Libya, despite a new round of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ alliance that started in January.

OPEC sticks to oil demand view, nudges up economic growth again | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago

PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 12 2024 8:31 AM EDT

Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.

While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.

A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.

The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain. Gasoline jumped 3.8% on the month while owners’ equivalent rent, a hypothetical gauge of what homeowners could get renting their properties, rose 0.4%.

“Inflation continues to churn above 3%, and once again shelter costs were the main villain. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn’t coming to the rescue any time soon,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Reports like January’s and February’s aren’t going to prompt the Fed to lower rates quickly.”

Airline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%. Medical care services, which helped feed a higher-than-expected CPI increase in January, decreased 0.1% last month.

The year-over-year increase for headline CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher than January, while core was one-tenth of a point lower.

Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.

While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.

Fed officials in recent weeks both have signaled that rate cuts are likely at some point this year and expressed caution about letting up too soon in the battle against high prices. The statement after the January meeting indicated that policymakers need “greater confidence” that inflation is moving back to target.

More

CPI inflation report February 2024: (cnbc.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Groundbreaking Vermont research could change how some people receive COVID-19 vaccines

March 12, 2024

Vermont researchers have discovered COVID-19 vaccines may not have been as effective in some people. As a result of research conducted in the Green Mountain State, changes could be made to COVID immunization administration to help the vaccines better protect some people.

The study conducted by the University of Vermont revealed people who produced fewer antibodies after receiving a COVID vaccine shared specific traits. Among a study sample size of 6,245 people, those who had a reduced immune response and, therefore, reduced protection from the virus, included men, persons over the age of 65, those with higher weight, diabetics, smokers and those with a history of emphysema.

On the other hand, some people had an increased amount of antibody production. Those who received the Moderna vaccine − as opposed to Pfizer − had a slightly better immune response. And, people who had previously had a serious bout of COVID that required hospitalization some time before receiving the vaccination, showed a significantly higher amount of antibody production.

The research took place between February 2021 and August 2022, analyzing twice-vaccinated patients across the U.S. UVM's Larner College of Medicine created a process for blood collection that had participants perform finger sticks and drip blood onto special paper and then mail the sample to Vermont.

----The findings mirrored a study conducted in the U.K. with those receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine that found males, older adults and those with underlying health conditions had decreased protection. The study from UVM, however, broadened the scope and included more ethnically diverse subjects and pre-existing medical conditions.

This information could lead to changes in vaccination administration to improve protection against the virus.

“Findings suggest the idea of a nuanced approach to vaccination, where certain population segments with weaker immune responses might need more frequent boosters or higher vaccine doses,” said Mary Cushman, UVM's co-director of the Vermont Center for Cardiovascular and Brain Health.

More

Groundbreaking Vermont research could change how some people receive COVID-19 vaccines (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

EVs have one third less range than advertised, magazine test finds

Official figures for miles on a single charge do not reflect real world conditions, according to tests conducted in Bedfordshire

11 March 2024 • 8:25pm

Electric cars have up to a third less range in reality than advertised, an investigation has found.

Official figures for how many miles an electric car can drive after one charge are based on a standardised test, done in warm conditions.

However, What Car magazine discovered that under real-world conditions, including at colder temperatures, cars perform much worse.

The magazine parked a dozen cars outside overnight to mimic how motorists use vehicles in the real world. Testers then drove them over a 60-mile loop on a test track in Bedfordshire until their batteries ran completely flat.

Steve Huntingford, the magazine’s editor, said its test schedule was a better representation of real-world EV range than official testing methods.

“We do it every summer [and] every winter because there is obviously a sizable difference in how battery efficiency works depending on cold weather,” he said.

“We leave them outside in the cold conditions [overnight] for the ambient temperature… so the batteries are subjected to falling down to a lower temperature and it’s the worst possible conditions to be tested in.”

Across the dozen EVs What Car tested, range was on average 29.9 per cent less than the official Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) figure which car makers are legally required to publish.

One vehicle’s range was more than a third lower than official range figures. The £57,000 Lexus UX 300e Takumi recorded a range 100 miles shorter than its advertised figure of 273 miles.

Its sibling, the Lexus RZ 450e Takumi, had the second-highest shortfall, with a range 92 miles shorter than the advertised 251.

The third biggest gap between official and real-world ranges in the EVs What Car tested was from Volkswagen’s ID 7 Pro Match. The vehicle’s tested range came in at 254 miles, a third lower than the approved figure of 383 miles.

Edmund King, the president of the AA, told The Telegraph that shorter-than-advertised EV ranges come as no surprise to the public.

Motorists, he said, know that driving style and weather conditions “can greatly affect range whether driving electric, petrol or diesel”.

“Most drivers are aware that the miles-per-gallon figures quoted for petrol and diesel cars fall short of real world driving by about 25 per cent,” said Mr King.

“Consumers should take these official figures with a pinch of salt as the most accurate test of charge or fuel efficiency is for drivers to take an extended test drive.”

More

EVs have one third less range than advertised, magazine test finds (telegraph.co.uk)

Rumour has it that Hollywood is considering making a 2024 remake of the classic 1964 film “A Fistful of Dollars,” starring an AI generated Clint Eastwood. 

Sadly, thanks to the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, President’s Carter, Clinton, G.W. Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden Joe Biden, assisted by the US Congress, the new film will now be called “A Boatload of Dollars.”

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)