Baltic Dry Index. 2196 -44 Brent
Crude 85.43
Spot Gold 2165 U S 2 Year Yield 4.59 -0.03
To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
As I write this weekend’s LIR update, news of the latest terrorist atrocity is still coming in from Moscow.
While this atrocity shouldn’t be a market
affecting event, I suspect it will become one next week and over the next few
months.
Gunmen kill more than 60 in concert attack near Moscow,
Islamic State claims responsibility
By Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn
March 23,
2024 4:26 AM GMT
MOSCOW, March 22 (Reuters) -
Camouflage-clad gunmen opened fire with automatic weapons at concertgoers near
Moscow on Friday, killing at least 60 people and injuring 145 in an attack
claimed by Islamic State militants.
In the deadliest attack in Russia
since the 2004 Beslan school siege, gunmen sprayed civilians with bullets just
before Soviet-era rock group "Picnic" was to perform to a full house
at the 6,200-seat the Crocus City Hall just west of the capital.
Verified video showed people taking their seats in
the hall, then rushing for the exits as repeated gunfire echoed above screams.
Other video showed men shooting at groups of people. Some victims lay
motionless in pools of blood.
"Suddenly there were bangs behind us - shots.
A burst of firing - I do not know what," one witness, who asked not to be
identified by name, told Reuters.
"A stampede began. Everyone ran to the
escalator," the witness said. "Everyone was screaming; everyone was
running."
Russian investigators said the death toll was more
than 60. Health officials said about 145 people were wounded, of which about 60
were in critical condition.
In the 2004 Beslan school siege, Islamist militants
took more than 1,000 people, including hundreds of children, hostage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was being updated
by security chiefs about the situation, including from Alexander Bortnikov, the
head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Kremlin said.
Russian investigators
published pictures of a Kalashnikov automatic weapon, vests with multiple spare
magazines and bags of spent bullet casings.
ISLAMIC STATE
Islamic State, the militant group that once sought control over
swathes of Iraq and Syria, claimed responsibility for the attack, the group's
Amaq agency said on Telegram.
A grainy picture was published by some Russian media of two of
the alleged attackers in a white car.
The fate of the attackers was unclear as firefighters battled a
massive blaze and emergency services evacuated hundreds of people while parts
of the venue's roof collapsed.
Islamic State said its fighters attacked on the outskirts of
Moscow, "killing and wounding hundreds and causing great destruction to
the place before they withdrew to their bases safely." The statement gave
no further detail.
The United States has intelligence
confirming Islamic State's claim of responsibility for the shooting, a U.S.
official said on Friday. The official said Washington had warned Moscow in
recent weeks of the possibility of an attack.
"We did warn the Russians appropriately," said the
official, speaking on condition of anonymity, without providing any additional
details.
Russia has yet to say who it thinks is responsible.
The attack on Crocus City
Hall, about 20 km (12 miles) from the Kremlin, comes just two weeks after the
U.S. embassy in Russia warned that
"extremists" had imminent plans for an attack in Moscow.
Hours before the embassy warning, the FSB said it had foiled an
attack on a Moscow synagogue by Islamic State's affiliate in Afghanistan, known
as ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K, and seeks a caliphate across Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran.
More
In stock casinos news:
Dow closes 300 points lower Friday, but notches best
week since December: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, MAR 22 2024 4:34 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
on Friday, but clinched its best week of the year after back-to-back
record-setting sessions.
The Dow dipped 305.47 points, or
0.77%, to close at 39,475.90. The S&P 500 inched
lower by 0.14% to end at 5,234.18. The Nasdaq Composite added
0.16% and closed at 16,428.82 for another record.
All three major averages notched
healthy gains this week, with the S&P 500 rising about 2.3%. The Dow was up
just shy of 2% for its best
week since December. The Nasdaq is the outperformer of the
three, jumping nearly 2.9%.
“It’s a digestion period after a
really strong week,” said Truist’s co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner of
Friday’s moves. “Our view is that the overall trend is still positive for the
market, especially when you see this breakout of new highs, on track for your
fifth consecutive month of gains.”
One reason for the market
optimism stems from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank left
rates unchanged, and commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced that
cuts are coming despite a recent bout of hot inflation readings that led some
investors to fear a postponed easing timeline.
“That was enough for this market
to move forward,” Lerner said.
FedEx rose
more than 7% after posting adjusted earnings that beat analyst estimates, while Nike sank
6.9% on disappointing
guidance and slowing China sales. Lululemon slid
15.8% on weak
guidance and slowing growth in North America, posting its worst
day since March 2020.
The major indexes closed at
record levels on Thursday for a second day, and hit all-time intraday highs.
Thursday was the fourth straight winning session for the three indexes, with
the Dow finishing close to the 40,000 level.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Fed's Bostic scales back
to single rate cut on inflation concerns
Reuters March
22, 2024 10:48 PM GMTU
ATLANTA, March 22 (Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President
Raphael Bostic said on Friday he now expects just a single quarter-point
interest rate cut this year instead of the two he had projected, citing
persistent inflation and stronger-than-anticipated economic data.
"I'm definitely less confident than I was in December" that
inflation will continue to fall towards the Fed's 2% target, Bostic told
reporters after a forum. Price pressure concerns led him to scale back this
year's rate-cut outlook and push back the likely start date, he added.
Bostic had previously said rate reductions might start as soon as this
summer. The Fed is widely expected to reduce rates beginning in June.
Bostic said the economy has proved more resilient than anticipated, with
recent data causing him to roughly double his 2024 U.S. economic growth
estimate to 2%. He saw little or no change in the current 3.9% unemployment rate,
a level considered inflationary not too long go, he added.
While he feels inflation is on an "arc" lower, it may be
moving slower, and he cited concern about the number of items still recording
outsized price increases.
The balance of risks has shifted towards waiting longer before easing
monetary policy, said Bostic, a voter this year on the U.S. central bank's
interest rate policy and its first official to speak publicly since the Federal
Open Market Committee meeting ended on Wednesday.
More
Fed's
Bostic scales back to single rate cut on inflation concerns | Reuters
In commodities news, will the scramble for
cocoa supplies make chocolate unaffordable to the poor? Plastic Easter eggs
next?
Cocoa prices rise to fresh record, nears $9,000 per
metric ton
Nvidia may
get most of the headlines, but the hottest trade of 2024 is shaping up to be a
commodity: cocoa.
Cocoa
futures have more
than doubled to records since the beginning of the year, with
prices now approaching $9,000 per metric ton. On Friday, they hit a fresh
all-time high, last up 4.4% at $8,940 per ton. Prices are also up more than 10%
for the week.
When 2024 began, cocoa was trading
below $4,200 per ton.
The reason for this massive surge in price goes
back to disruptions on both
supply and demand.
Severe El Niño-induced dry weather
conditions, reported wildfires and an outbreak of the cacao swollen shoot virus
have cut down cocoa supply. Demand has also remained strong in countries such
as the U.S., helping companies such as Hershey’s and Mondelez better offload
rising prices onto consumers.
It appears that these dry weather
conditions won’t be letting up anytime soon.
Rainy season in the Ivory Coast
typically runs from April to October, but the region is currently facing
hotter-than-usual temperatures, which could extend its lack of abundant
rainfall, Reuters reported. A lack of rain could lead to subpar beans in size
and quality, further limiting cocoa supply moving forward.
More
Cocoa
prices rise to fresh record, nears $9,000 per metric ton (cnbc.com)
Chocolate Panic Escalates as Cocoa Crunch Sparks
Scramble to Buy
March 22, 2024 at 12:00 PM GMT
Chocolate is hot right now, but not just because Easter is
coming.
It’s down to shortages and soaring prices of main
ingredient cocoa, and “everybody is panicking.” That’s how the head of Guan
Chong, one of the world’s biggest cocoa processors, summed up the situation in
the market right now.
Prices have skyrocketed, setting new records day after day.
They’ve already doubled so far this year to exceed $8,500 a ton, and $10,000
looks like a real possibility. The main reason is poor harvests in West Africa
— a result of drought and disease — but decades of
underinvestment and insufficient support for millions of impoverished farmers
have contributed too.
Malaysia’s Guan Chong is scouring the world for cocoa and paying premiums
to book beans from minor growers amid worries that some sellers in top growers
Ivory Coast and Ghana may default on supply contracts. It’s looking to buy from
countries such as Ecuador, Peru and Indonesia, CEO Brandon Tay Hoe Lian
told Bloomberg News’s Anuradha
Raghu.
Surging cocoa prices — as shown in these charts — are prompting candy manufacturers to
crank out new products with less of the pricey ingredient, or none at all. So far they’ve passed on higher costs to
consumers. But the breakneck rally shows no sign of easing any time soon, and
major chocolatier Barry Callebaut has warned that acute cocoa shortages will persist
into next season.
The crunch is being felt most in Europe, the world’s
biggest chocolate consuming region. Incoming EU regulations — aimed at stopping
products that destroy forests from being sold in shops — may make it even
harder for the bloc’s top chocolate makers to secure supplies.
Focus is now turning to the upcoming mid-crop, the smaller
of two annual harvests, and Ivory Coast’s regulator expects that to shrink this
season, Bloomberg reported this month. For the season as a whole,
the world is facing a third straight deficit.
A major worry is that harvest losses triggered by aging
trees and crop diseases may prolong the shortfall and turn into a structural
supply issue, keeping costs high, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts
including Diana Gomes said this week.
So you may say goodbye to any chance of cheaper chocolate
and Easter eggs for quite a while.
Global Food Roundup: Chocolate at Risk From Record
Cocoa Prices - Bloomberg
Finally,
is a nuclear banking war about to breakout?
Russia warns
Western banks of catastrophic consequences over asset confiscation
March 22, 2024
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Kremlin on Friday said Western banks' legal
departments understand the "catastrophic consequences" that would
follow should the EU proceed with plans to confiscate Russian assets.
Some western banks are lobbying against EU proposals to redistribute
billions of euros in interest earned on frozen Russian assets, senior industry
sources said, fearing it could lead to costly litigation.
European Union leaders on Thursday agreed to move ahead with work on a
plan to use up to 3 billion euros ($3.24 billion) a year to supply arms to
Ukraine as they try to bolster Kyiv's fight against Russia, which would still
own the underlying frozen assets. EU leaders said the proceeds could be used
within a few months.
"We have heard statements from Brussels that the proceeds of our
assets don't belong to anyone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told
reporters. "This is not so. They belong to the holders of the assets, the
owners of the assets."
Responding to Reuters' report that some banks fear that they might later
be held liable by Russia if they are involved in any transfer of money to
Ukraine, Peskov issued a thinly veiled warning.
"The legal department of any bank understands the catastrophic
consequences of such actions to expropriate assets, both for the bank, for the
country as a whole and for the European economy," Peskov said.
"If such decisions were realised, this would have very serious
consequences for those who took and implemented them."
Russia warns Western banks of catastrophic
consequences over asset confiscation (msn.com)
Politicians
are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle that
they can't bother about where they're going.
Joseph A. Schumpeter.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
The Fed should wait 'a couple years' before cutting
rates as inflation is too sticky, top economist says
Thu, March 21, 2024 at 11:29 PM GMT
The Federal Reserve should wait
much longer than markets are expecting to cut interest rates, according to top
economist Mohamed El-Erian.
Speaking to Bloomberg on Wednesday, the Allianz chief economic advisor
said he believed Fed officials should push back their timeline for rate cuts by
"a couple years." That's due to the sticky nature of inflation, he
said, suggesting that central bankers risk letting high prices flare up again
if they plan on cutting rates soon.
"The underlying inflation
rate that is consistent with economic well-being, for now, is somewhat higher
than 2%," El-Erian warned, pointing to supply-chain pressures, like the
green energy transition and a tight labor market, that are buoying prices in
the economy.
Consumer prices
rose 3.2% year-over-year in February. Though that's well above the Fed's target,
officials have projected three rate cuts by the end of the year, with markets
expecting the first cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
El-Erian has previously warned of
the dangers of the Fed cutting interest
rates too early. That could cause
inflation to spiral out of control and plunge the US into a 1970s-style
stagflation crisis, he previously warned.
But it's hard to know what the
Fed is truly thinking of inflation and its next policy move, El-Erian said.
Federal Open Market Committee members just reaffirmed the outlook for three
rate cuts in 2024, but the Fed
has traditionally been "so data dependent," he noted, referring to
the fact that real prices in the economy lag behind the official statistics.
"The market goes on a roller
coaster, and the Fed's role is to be looking at the rollercoaster, not being in
the rollercoaster," El-Erian said.
More
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Long Covid: Leeds patient left bedbound by disease
March
22, 2024
A Leeds man suffering with long Covid has said the disease can leave him bedbound for up to 20 hours a day.
Former IT architect Mike, 61, first caught the virus in October 2020 and then again in September 2022.
He told the BBC his ongoing symptoms included fatigue, brain fog, pain, breathlessness, light sensitivity and hearing loss.
Saturday marks four years since then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the first Covid lockdown.
Before Covid, Mike travelled widely for work, danced weekly and would go hill walking.
"My world has shrunk, literally, from the world to this house," he said.
"If a zoologist put one of those radio collars on me, what they would see is I go from here to the supermarket, to the GP, to hospital appointments and that's it, that's my life."
Most people recover quickly after a Covid infection and make a full recovery within 12 weeks.
For others the symptoms last longer and this is known as long Covid or Post Covid-19 Syndrome.
"I exist, I don't really have a life", Mike said.
---- In March 2023 the Office for National Statistics estimated 1.9m people in the UK had long Covid - but this data is no longer published.
Prof Stephen
Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said: "You can develop
long Covid after any severity of Covid infection, so we are pretty much at the
same level of risk as we were in terms of the number of cases that we're
seeing.
More
Long Covid: Leeds patient left bedbound by disease - BBC News
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Green EV madness puts NHS patients at
risk in GB. Approx. 6 minutes.
UK
EV Ambulances put GREEN ZEALOTRY ahead of PATIENT CARE | MGUY Australia
UK EV Ambulances put GREEN ZEALOTRY ahead of PATIENT
CARE | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
This weekend’s music diversion. This weekend Handel, in
honour of Palm Sunday, when Church music was Church music, before the happy
clappy vandals took over.
In this recording, the Taverners get conducted by A Parrott. Handel at 22 in 1707.
Dixit
Dominus Domino meo:
Sede
a dextris meis.
Donec ponam inimicos tuos,
scabellum pedum tuorum.
The
Lord said to my Lord,
"Sit
at My right hand,
until I make your foes
a stool beneath your feet."
Approx. 5 minutes.
Dixit
Dominus (opening chorus) by G.F. Handel
Dixit
Dominus (opening chorus) by G.F. Handel (youtube.com)
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 12 minutes.
11
Year Old Magnus' Out-Of-Nowhere Queen Sacrifice
11
Year Old Magnus' Out-Of-Nowhere Queen Sacrifice (youtube.com)
Finally, it’s back,
this weekend’s Math’s update. Approx. 31
minutes.
The
Oldest Unsolved Problem in Math
The
Oldest Unsolved Problem in Math (youtube.com)
The function of entrepreneurs is to reform or revolutionize the pattern of production by exploiting an invention or, more generally, an untried technological possibility for producing a new commodity or producing an old one in a new way, by opening up a new source of supply of materials or a new outlet for products, by reorganizing an industry and so on.
Joseph A. Schumpeter.
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