Baltic Dry Index. 1821 -24 Brent Crude 87.07
Spot Gold 2230 U S 2 Year Yield 4.59 +0.05
We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power.
Alan Greenspan.
Happy
Easter everyone.
Fed's balancing act could see June rate cut in play even with
sticky inflation
By Howard
Schneider March 29,
2024 10:08 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, March 29
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the central bank is not
growing more tolerant of higher inflation even though the latest policymaker
projections raised the inflation outlook for the year without triggering a
tougher monetary-policy response.
But former Fed officials and other analysts see Powell
nevertheless approaching a difficult moment trying to reconcile competing
economic risks, a divided group of Fed policymakers, and a public now expecting
interest rate cuts to start in June.
Upcoming data may well support a June rate reduction if
inflation declines convincingly towards the Fed's 2% target between now and
then, resuming a trend that encouraged policymakers last year to cap the
federal funds rate at the current 5.25%-5.50% and lay the groundwork for easing
to begin this year. Others see a slowing economy and weakening job growth on
the horizon, pushing the Fed to cut in order to support the labor market.
Yet even if inflation proves more persistent than expected in
coming weeks and the economy remains strong, the Fed could still proceed with a
June cut by framing it as a potentially one-off adjustment rather than the
locked-in beginning of a series of reductions, former Fed Vice Chair Richard
Clarida, now a global economic adviser to bond giant PIMCO, wrote this week in
assessing the pivotal moment central banks face in their policy communications.
The upfront justification of rate cuts expected to
start this summer, Clarida said, would be that policymakers are simply keeping
rates in step with the decline in inflation seen since last year, and could cut
further as long as inflation continued to fall.
But "if inflation...does not follow the
forecasts and becomes entrenched at a plausible 2.5%...the central banks would
likely pause their rate cut cycles," Clarida wrote, and depend "on
their belief that by keeping policy restrictive long enough, they can credibly
forecast inflation returning (eventually) to the 2% target."
An initial cut, explained with language that tilts towards
suspending further reductions if inflation does not behave as expected, would
hedge the risks facing both sides of the Fed's employment and inflation goals,
and assuage the concerns of Fed officials worried most about damaging the
current expansion as well as those worried most about embedded inflation.
It would also throw a kink
into expectations that
2024 will be the year when the Fed's record-setting inflation battle ends in a
steady succession of rate cuts and continued economic growth.
Recent comments from Fed officials have put divergent views on
display, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying Wednesday he would support
keeping policy tighter than expected if inflation data is not encouraging, and
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee saying earlier in the week recent high
inflation readings don't undercut the trend towards easing price pressures.
Powell will update his views in an appearance Friday at the San
Francisco Fed that will follow the release of new inflation data for February.
At his press conference after last week's policy
meeting, he said recent, more elevated price data "haven't really changed
the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a
sometimes-bumpy road toward 2%," comments that left expectations for a
June rate cut intact.
Part of that narrative appears driven by
policymakers' belief the economy is in a rare moment when the forces that can
sometimes disrupt central bankers' best laid plans have been working in the
Fed's favor.
Productivity has been growing at a surprising clip,
allowing the economy to grow fast without adding to price pressures; a jump in
the labor force has also helped the unemployment rate stay low without driving
up wages. The Fed's most recent set of economic projections continued that rosy
view of the world, with faster economic growth and a slightly lower
unemployment rate than anticipated as of December, and inflation still falling
to the 2% target over the next two years though at a slightly slower pace.
More
Fed's
balancing act could see June rate cut in play even with sticky inflation |
Reuters
Next, are
London’s top restaurant’s now better Paris’s?
“It’s the Champion’s League of food”: Why
one Parisian is all-in on London
THURSDAY 28 MARCH 2024 9:02 AM
LONDON’S hospitality scene is set for another vote
of confidence with the opening of a second site by iconic Parisian restaurant
group Moma, this time at the Langham Hotel.
Mimosa, opening in April, will follow the arrival
of Café Lapérouse in the capital, with MOMA founder Benjamin Patou keen to push
into the London restaurant scene.
“It is a dream to succeed in London. We are very
humble,” Patou told City A.M.. “You have so many good restaurants, it is like
the Champion’s League.”
MOMA now operates a portfolio of 30 venues across
the globe, largely located in Paris but with developments across France and
beyond including Athens, Doha and Saint-Barth.
That includes the well-reviewed Mimosa in Paris;
the London outpost will embody the same “vibrant spirit of the Mediterranean
with its fusion of French heritage and contemporary flair.”
Moma is majority owned by Patou, with annual
revenues reported to be north of £120m.
London’s restaurant
scene is increasingly regarded as one of the best in the world, a far cry from
the once-famous French view of British food best summed up by Jacques Chirac:
“You can’t trust people who cook as badly as that: after Finland, it’s the country
with the worst food.”
Restaurant groups are
increasingly involved in the launch of new hotels, with Moma’s first outpost in
London – Café Lapérouse – in the new Raffles Hotel at the
Old War Office.
For Patou, there was never a question as to whether
he would try to make it in London – and that it would remain a hospitality
hotspot – despite the challenges of Brexit and the pandemic.
“London is the Queen of the game. All the best restaurants
around the world are in London. My motivation is 100 per cent intact,” he
says.
Other restarauteurs opening up in the capital
agree.
“Post pandemic people have realised that where we
eat and drink is an extension of our own personal brand, so everyone is looking
for original concepts and ideas vs big casual dining concepts, right now London
is possibly culinary capital of the world,” reckons Markus Thesleff, the man
behind the Thesleff Group, which operates Sale e Pepe, Viajante87 and Los
Mochis Notting Hill – and soon to open Los Mochis City.
More
"It's the Champion's League of food": Why one Parisian is all-in on London (cityam.com)
Finally,
some insurance implications of the Baltimore Key Bridge disaster.
Baltimore
bridge collapse could lead to record insurance loss, says Lloyd’s boss
March
28, 2024
The collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge is likely to lead
to the largest single marine insurance loss ever, the chair of Lloyd’s of
London has said.
Bruce Carnegie-Brown said he expected to see insurers incur
multibillion-dollar losses after the disaster, which resulted in the deaths of
at least two people, with four others missing and presumed dead.
Early on Tuesday the 1.5-mile
bridge in the Maryland city collapsed after a
container ship heading to Sri Lanka hit one of its concrete columns.
The debris has blocked
shipping lanes in the Patapsco River and forced the indefinite closure of the
Port of Baltimore, one of the busiest ports on the US east coast.
Speaking
to Reuters, Carnegie-Brown said it was too soon to put a figure on the expected
losses but he would be “very surprised” if it did not result in
multibillion-pound losses for insurers.
He said: “The tragedy had the
capacity to become the largest single marine insurance loss ever.”
Lloyd’s, which runs the
world’s largest insurance market, has companies active in the property and
marine insurance markets among the 77 companies that operate within it.
On Wednesday, analysts at
Barclays estimated that insurers could face claims of as much as $3bn as
a result of the bridge collapse, with firms on Lloyd’s of London’s market the
most exposed.
Barclays said claims for damage to the bridge alone could reach $1.2bn,
and there could also be liabilities of between $350m and $700m for wrongful
deaths. Hundreds of millions of dollars more would probably have to be paid out
for business disruption caused by the port’s closure.
It said the significant involvement of Lloyd’s of London may make
smaller London market reinsurers comparatively more exposed.
Lloyd’s reported a pre-tax profit of £10.7bn for the year to 31
December, which included profits from underwriting growing from £3.3bn last
year to £5.9bn this year.
It said this was boosted by
lower costs from large risks and a fall in natural catastrophe claims.
According to the report, the number of major claims for the year dropped from
£4.4bn in 2022 to £1.3bn across 2023.
The major claims for the year
came from events such as wildfires in Hawaii, earthquakes in the Middle East,
floods in New Zealand, Cyclone
Gabrielle and Hurricane Idalia.
Baltimore bridge collapse could lead to record
insurance loss, says Lloyd’s boss (msn.com)
Massive crane put in place to clear Baltimore bridge debris as
crews assess damage
By Reuters March 30, 20241 2:52 AM GMT
March 29 (Reuters) - The biggest operational crane
on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard towered over Baltimore's port on Friday, ready to
begin clearing the wreckage of the Francis Scott Key Bridge days after a cargo
ship crashed into it, sending the span crashing into the harbor.
Crews were still surveying the damage as of midday
Friday. The crane, which can lift up to 1,000 tons, arrived late Thursday night
and will probably start hauling debris out of the water on Saturday morning,
according to U.S. Coast Guard spokesperson Carmen Carver.
A second crane is en
route and expected to arrive soon to assist the effort, she said.
----"The Dali is
almost as long as the Eiffel Tower, and the Dali has the Key Bridge on top of
it. We're talking 3,000 or 4,000 tons of steel that's sitting on top of that
ship, so we've got work to do," Moore said at Thursday's press conference.
Within hours of Moore's
request for emergency funds, the U.S. government on Thursday had awarded Maryland $60 million to
clear debris and begin rebuilding the bridge, a reflection of how critical the
infrastructure is to shipping and transportation industries along the Eastern
Seaboard.
Three days after the tragedy, the jobs of some 15,000 people
whose work revolves around daily port operation are on hold. Maryland lawmakers
are looking to pass emergency legislation to provide income replacement for
those affected, the state senate president said this week.
The situation poses a temporary risk to the area's
economy, since the port receives the greatest share of U.S. auto imports and is
one of just four on the U.S. east coast with the 50-foot channel needed for
larger cargo boats, bond rating agency Moody's Investors Service said.
Replacing the 47-year-old bridge will likely
require "years of work," but the port, whose operations recently
surpassed pre-pandemic levels, could reopen within weeks, "if debris is
rapidly removed," according to a Moody's report.
"As long as the port is closed, diversion of
automotive imports and other cargo to other East Coast ports will erode
Baltimore's advantage as the port closest to the Midwest, to the detriment of
terminal operators," the report said.
Massive
crane put in place to clear Baltimore bridge debris as crews assess damage |
Reuters
The number one problem in today's generation and economy is the lack of financial literacy.
Alan Greenspan.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8%
annually in February, as expected
PUBLISHED FRI,
MAR 29 2024 8:32 AM EDT
Inflation rose in line with expectations in
February, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold before it can start
considering interest rate cuts, according to a measure the central bank
considers its more important barometer.
The personal consumption expenditures price index
excluding food and energy increased 2.8% on a 12-month basis and was up 0.3%
from a month ago. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones estimates.
Including volatile food and energy costs, the
headline PCE reading was 0.3% for the month and 2.5% at the 12-month rate,
compared to estimates for 0.4% and 2.5%.
Both the stock and bond markets were closed in
observance of the Good Friday holiday.
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Heart Scarring Detected Over 1 Year After
COVID-19 Vaccination: Studies
Two
long-term studies found signs of fibrosis in patients who suffered heart
inflammation after getting a COVID-19 shot.
3/27/2024 Updated: 3/28/2024
Heart scarring was detected more than one year
after COVID-19 vaccination in some people who suffered myocarditis following
receipt of a shot, researchers reported in new studies.
A third of 60 patients with follow-up cardiac
imaging done more than 12 months after their myocarditis diagnosis had
persistent late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), which is, in the majority of
cases, reflective of heart scarring, Australian researchers reported in a
preprint of a new study, published on March 22.
Myocarditis is a form of heart inflammation.
The median
time from receipt of a vaccine to follow-up imaging was 548 days, with the
longest interval being 603 days.
“We found
that the incidence of persistent myocardial fibrosis is high, seen in almost a
third of patients at >12 months post diagnosis, which could have
implications for the management and prognosis of this predominantly young
cohort,” the researchers wrote.
“The long-term clinical implications of
LGE in this condition are as yet unknown, but LGE has been demonstrated to
confer worse prognosis in non-COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis,
especially if it persists beyond six months,” they added later, pointing to several previous papers.
Researchers in one of the previous papers, for
instance, found that LGE was a “powerful prognosticator” of adverse outcomes in
myocarditis patients.
Before the new testing, nine patients were
determined to definitely have myocarditis, and 58 patients were labeled as
probably having myocarditis. The findings of persistent LGE resulted in
reclassifying 16 of the cases from probable myocarditis to definite
myocarditis.
Exclusions included patients who were pregnant or
allergic to agents used in gadolinium testing.
Among
a subset of 20 patients who underwent imaging shortly after vaccination, 19 had
LGE. In follow-up imaging, LGE was no longer visible in 10 of those patients.
In five, it was reduced, but in four it was unchanged.
More
Heart Scarring Detected Over 1 Year After COVID-19
Vaccination: Studies | The Epoch Times
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Fuel-cell
train travels more than 1,700 miles on one tank of hydrogen
Paul Ridden March 27, 2024
A hydrogen
fuel-cell passenger train developed by Swiss rail vehicle maker Stadler Rail
has achieved a new Guinness World Record, traveling for almost two days around
the clock for a distance of 1,741.7 miles.
Efforts to
clean up dirty trains are already well underway, with heavy investment in
electrifying networks around the world as well as rolling out battery-electric
locomotives such as the FLXDrive, the Blues
train and the Flirt
Akku.
That last example is made by
Stadler Rail AG, and managed to achieve a Guinness World Record in 2021 for the longest per-charge battery-only
journey of 224 km (~140 miles), on a route between Berlin and Warnemünde during
a freezing local winter – not bad for a train that was designed with an
operational per-charge range of 80 km.
Not all rail networks can
support electrification and that battery range just won't be enough for
long-haul transportation of goods or people. That's where hydrogen could come
in, making extended
travel possible and only emitting
steam and water.
Stadler
first introduced its Flirt H2 passenger model at InnoTrans 2022 in Berlin, and
began testing in Switzerland. It's designed to replace diesel-powered trains on
non-electrified or partially electrified networks, and features two
motor-driven end cars with a hydrogen tank and fuel cells inbetween. The fuel
cells feed energy to an onboard battery, which powers the electric drive.
Originally built for California's San Bernardino
County Transportation Authority, it's reported top speed is 127 km/h (79 mph)
and it has a range of 460 km (286 miles) per refueling stop. However, that
range figure has just been blown out of the park at the ENSCO test circuit in
Pueblo, Colorado, to get Stadler into the record books again.
On the evening of March 20, the Flirt H2 set off on
its first lap of the track. Engineers then took it in turns to man the controls
for more than 46 hours, after which the train came to a stop having clocked up
2,803 km (1741.7 miles) on a single tank of hydrogen.
More
Fuel-cell train travels more than 1,700 miles on one
tank of hydrogen (newatlas.com)
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
This weekend’s music diversion. In honour of Easter,
Mozart at his best. Approx. 4 minutes.
Laudate
Dominum
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Magnus
Carlsen vs Ding Liren || Grenke Chess Classic (2024)
Magnus Carlsen vs Ding Liren || Grenke Chess Classic
(2024) (youtube.com)
This Easter weekend’s
Math’s update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Simple
yet 5000 years missed ?
Simple yet 5000 years missed ? (youtube.com)
The
abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to
use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. In the
absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from
confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. Deficit
spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands
in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property
rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the
statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan.
