Baltic Dry Index. 1094 +15 Brent Crude 75.49
Spot Gold 1955 US 2 Year Yield 4.62 -0.12
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 15/06/23 World 690,366,779
Deaths 6,891,513
With most countries now only reporting weekly or monthly or not updating at all, the LIR will drop the daily Covid update at the end of this week.
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
It is the summer silly season and our financialised, central bankster, fiat money fuelled stock casinos are in full new stocks bubble frenzy.
I suspect this will be the final stocks bubble of the present decade.
Our new age of higher interest rates has barely surfaced in the global economy, though not for much longer I suspect.
Much of the western economies, led by the USA have lately been functioning on increased massive consumer credit spending. That escape from reality will shortly come to its end.
In China, the world’s second largest economy, the Covid lockdown rebound already seems to have run out of steam. China’s property bust seems to be gaining momentum.
Elsewhere, the property bust from rising interest rates, rising mortgage rates, falling real estate prices, is just getting underway.
A reverse wealth effect comes next, just don’t let on to our new stock casinos bubble.
Asia markets
trade higher as Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, in line with expectations
UPDATED FRI, JUN 16 2023 12:26 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets are higher Friday, as the
Bank of Japan again left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
In Japan, stocks reversed earlier
losses and traded higher, with the Nikkei 225 up
by 0.18% and the Topix advancing marginally. Both indexes had snapped a five
day winning streak on Thursday.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained
0.75%, powered by utility and energy stocks, while South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.44%
and the Kosdaq rose 1.16%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
0.69%, extending its rally after gaining over 2% on Thursday, while mainland
Chinese stocks also were all higher. The Shanghai Composite was
up 0.37% and the Shenzhen
Component rose 0.55%.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached
their highest intraday levels since April 2022, with the S&P ending up
1.22% up and the Nasdaq gaining 1.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw
the largest gain, climbing 1.26%.
Bond yields were lower, while
tech stocks continued to lead the market upswing — in line with the trend on
Wall Street in 2023.
But in the real economy, more sign of that looming recession.
Oracle cuts hundreds of jobs, rescinds job offers in its
health unit - Insider
June 15, 202310:26
PM GMT+
June 15 (Reuters)
- Software firm Oracle (ORCL.N) on Thursday laid off hundreds of
employees, rescinded job offers and cut back open positions within its health
unit, the Insider reported, citing three people familiar with the matter.
The
layoffs follow thousands of cuts in corporate America as companies wrestle with
elevated levels of inflation and rising interest rates.
Oracle's
health unit includes electronic medical records firm Cerner which it acquired
for $28.3 billion, its biggest ever deal, in December last year.
The layoffs were
largely due to Cerner's challenged work with the U.S. Department of Veterans
Affairs, which hired Cerner to replace its homemade medical records with
Cerner's technology, the report said.
The
laid-off employees will receive severance pay equal to four weeks, plus one
additional week for every year of service and a payout of vacation days, the
report added.
Oracle
did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Oracle
cuts hundreds of jobs, rescinds job offers in its health unit - Insider |
Reuters
European Central Bank raises rates by 25 basis
points after Fed opts to pause
PUBLISHED THU, JUN 15 2023 8:16 AM EDT
The European
Central Bank on Thursday announced a
new rate increase of 25 basis points, taking its main rate to 3.5%.
The central bank has raised rates since July 2022
in an attempt to bring down record-high inflation across the region. The latest
inflation reading showed prices cooling down at
a faster-than-expected pace, with headline inflation coming in at 6.1% in May
and core inflation, which excludes volatile items, coming in at 5.3%. This
remains well above the ECB’s target of 2% headline inflation, however.
An additional challenge for the ECB is the
lackluster growth in the region. Data released earlier this month showed
the 20-member area entered a technical recession in the first quarter of this
year. Gross domestic product came in at -0.1% for the three-month period to
March, after a 0.1% contraction in the last quarter of 2022.
Poor economic
performance might limit the ECB’s ability to increase rates further to rein in
inflation. ECB officials have nevertheless previously suggested that it is more
important to bring down prices than to avoid an economic slowdown.
The latest ECB
decision followed an announcement stateside that the Federal Reserve decided to
leave rates unchanged. Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers needed more
information to decide next steps, but the central bank projected another two
quarter-percentage-point moves later in the year.
European Central
Bank raises rates by 25 basis points at June 2023 meeting (cnbc.com)
J.P.
Morgan now forecasts 4% peak for key ECB rate
June 16, 20235:03
AM GMT+1
June 16 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan said on
Friday it expected the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by another
25 basis points in September, taking its terminal rate forecast to 4% after the
central bank maintained its hawkish stance and signalled more hikes to come.
The brokerage
earlier expected the ECB's terminal rate to peak at 3.75%.
The European Central
Bank raised euro zone borrowing costs to
their highest level in 22 years on Thursday and said stubbornly high inflation
all but guaranteed another move next month and likely beyond that too.
J.P. Morgan now forecasts 4% peak for key ECB rate | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
New Zealand falls
into recession as high interest rates bite
June 15, 2023
New Zealand’s economy has
dipped into recession as higher interest rates take
their toll, new figures released on Thursday show.
Gross domestic product fell
by 0.1% in the March quarter, following a revised 0.7% fall in the previous
quarter, Statistics New Zealand said.
That fulfils the nation’s
definition of a recession, which is at least two consecutive quarters of
negative growth.
The slowdown comes after New
Zealand’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate 12 straight times to
5.5% as it tries to tame inflation.
The rate is at its highest
level since 2008, making it more expensive for people to borrow money for
homes, cars and other purchases. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has indicated
it does not plan to raise the rate any further for now and that its next move
will be a cut.
The downturn in growth was in
line with economists’ expectations, and the currency was little changed, with
one New Zealand dollar trading at around 49 pence.
Taken over the full year, the picture looked rosier. New
Zealand’s economy grew by 2.9% after strong growth in the first two quarters.
And with such a small dip in the March quarter, it is possible the recession
call could be reversed when the latest figures are revised next quarter.
Contributing to the drop in growth
was a series of deadly weather events, including flooding in Auckland and a
cyclone.
“The adverse weather and resulting
flooding caused significant damage and disruption, particularly across the
North Island,” Statistics New Zealand said.
The biggest drivers of the downturn
were business services, down 3.5%, and transport, postal and warehousing, down
2.2%. Going against the trend, media and telecommunications rose 2.7%.
One of the most notable affects of
higher interest rates has been on the housing market.
More
New Zealand falls
into recession as high interest rates bite (msn.com)
Asia inflation has peaked, region’s growth to
overtake U.S. and Europe, Morgan Stanley says
PUBLISHED WED, JUN 14 2023 11:06 PM EDT
Asia’s growth is set to outpace that of the U.S. and Europe’s by the end of the year
as the region has been largely spared from interest rate shocks, said Morgan
Stanley.
“By the fourth quarter of this year, we think
Asia’s growth will be outperforming U.S. and Europe by about 450 basis points,”
the investment bank’s Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a webinar on
Tuesday, hours before the U.S. released its inflation print for May.
Citing reasons for his optimism, he said Asia is
expected to deliver healthier growth rates while the West lags behind. On top
of that, China’s broad recovery could come in the second half of this year,
while three large Asian economies — India, Indonesia and Japan — are also
showing robust domestic demand.
Asia inflation ‘not
as intense’
“We’re definitely expecting growth in these two
economies to be constrained by the fact that they have had this significant
inflation problem,” Ahya said in reference to the U.S. and Europe.
Central banks in those markets are having to take
policy rates into restrictive territory to bring inflation under control, he
added.
“Asia has not had interest rate shock that U.S.
and Europe has had,” he said, adding that Asia’s inflation has been running
almost half the run rate compared to the other two regions.
The U.S. inflation rate has been holding well
above the Fed’s 2% annual target.
Inflation slowed to 4% in May — the lowest rate in two years, after peaking at 9.1% in June last year. The Federal Reserve skipped a rate hike this week, as the fight against inflation showed some
promise.
Just last month, the central bank implemented its 10th consecutive
interest rate hike in over a year,
marking the swiftest monetary policy tightening the Fed has undertaken since the 1980s.
Likewise in Europe, inflation in the euro zone fell to 6.1% in May, marking the lowest level since February 2022. The ECB
raised its benchmark rates from -0.5% a year ago to 3.25% in May, the highest since November 2008.
“Asia’s inflation problem has not been as intense.
And we think that region’s inflation has peaked,” he said. “By the time we are
in September [or] October, 80% of [the] region’s countries would have seen
inflation going back into central banks’ comfort zone.”
More.
Asia's growth will outperform the U.S. and Europe, Morgan Stanley says (cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid vaccine
compensation demanded by hundreds as BioNTech hit by lawsuits in Germany
June 14, 2023
Pharmaceuticals producer BioNTech is facing compensation claims in
Germany after two law firms claimed clients suffered lasting health problems as
a result of the company’s coronavirus jab.
BioNTech, which is based in Mainz, entered court this week in its first
German hearing.
The case has been brought against the German biotechnology company on
behalf of a middle-aged medical worker.
A woman is seeking €150,000 in damages after suffering from heart
arrhythmia and brain fog following her vaccination.
The case is
being heard in a regional court in Hamburg.
Her case is
one of several hundred brought against the company.
The total cost
of compensation being pursued by two law firms has topped €1million.
Dusseldorf-based
Rogert & Ulbrich and Wiesbaden-based Casar-Preller are heading the claims.
Tobias Ulbrich
controversially claimed American billionaire Bill Gates wanted to use Covid
jabs to reduce the German population to 27 million.
A spokesperson
from Gates’ foundation said the suggestion was “false”.
BioNTech
produced around 75 per cent of the 224 million vaccine doses administered
across Germany in collaboration with US firm Pfizer.
Despite legal
pressure, BioNTech is confident the cases will be dismissed.
It suggested
that it has decided not to set aside provisions to cover possible compensation
claims.
BioNTech said:
“Continuous monitoring of the vaccine’s safety profile and after more than 2.6
billion doses of [the Covid-19 jab] administered worldwide has to date not
identified potential side effects other than those already listed in the
respective product information.”
The pharmaceutical
company also warned the Hamburg case demonstrated a failure from the plaintiff
and lawyers to highlight a “causal relationship between the adverse events and
the vaccine”.
It instead
suggested the relationship was merely coincidental as it lamented the lawsuit
as being “without merit”.
Covid vaccine
compensation demanded by hundreds as BioNTech hit by lawsuits in Germany
(msn.com)
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
London's solar street
thrives on people power
June 15, 2023
LONDON (Reuters) - Sick
of eye-watering energy bills and keen to do what they can to fend off global
warming, two artists have shown their north London neighbours that collectively
they have the power to tackle both problems.
After raising 113,000 pounds ($141,000), partly through crowd-funding
publicised by sleeping on their roof for three cold, winter weeks, artist
couple Dan Edelstyn and Hilary Powell have arranged for solar panels to be
installed on dozens of houses on their street.
"If you can create
an offer where you actually are saying: 'Look, let's just bypass a broken
political system and let's do something directly ourselves together,' that's
quite an attractive offer to make to people," said Edelstyn. Together with
Powell, he spent a year convincing neighbours to join the project.
In Waltham
Forest, the London borough where the artist couple lives, fuel poverty -
meaning households cannot afford to keep their homes at an adequate temperature
- is at the third highest level in the capital.
That makes the
project particularly valuable for its residents, many of whom live in
Victorian-era housing that can be poorly insulated and use more energy.
----Households powered by solar panel-derived electricity draw less power
from the national grid, cutting energy bills, and they can also sell any excess
energy back.
Industry
analysts say community projects tend to be more efficient than individual solar
installations as costs fall with scale.
'BIG CHANGES
NEED TO HAPPEN'
The solar
panels are being installed by Octopus Energy, which says it is doing the work
at cost rather than at any profit, to help raise awareness of the need for
adaption to renewable energy, which is carbon-free but is intermittent, meaning
it can causes problems for the grid.
"It's not just a UK
problem. This is a global problem: how we move to renewables. Big changes need
to happen," Rebecca Dibb-Simkin, chief product officer at Octopus Energy,
said.
----Britain's energy regulator Ofgem said last month it was launching a
policy review to speed up the connection of low-carbon energy schemes to the
electricity transmission grid.
Edelstyn and
Powell said they want their street to inspire others, not just to bring down
bills and reduce carbon emissions, but to help drive community action, which in
Britain has lost momentum.
Community
projects growth slowed to 2.4% in 2022, after doubling in size each year
between 2014 and 2017, according to advocacy group Community Energy England.
"We just
want people to be able to access the finance that they need if they want to try
and retrofit their house and decarbonise their street, and we want it to be
simple and straightforward," Edelstyn said.
London's solar
street thrives on people power (msn.com)
Another weekend and the King’s official
birthday parade, aka Trooping the Colour. For the first time in about 20 years
the reigning monarch is about to attend seated on a horse. Merrie Olde Brexit England is happily back in
escapist Edwardian 1900s. Have a great escapist weekend everyone.
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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