Becalmed And Befogged Before What?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1020 +04           Brent Crude 76.75

Spot Gold 1947                 US 2 Year Yield 4.56 +0.05

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 08/06/23 World 689,320,285

Deaths 6,889,153

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.

In the stock casinos an uneasy, unexpected calm. The AI bubble already seems to have run out of steam.

Has the wider bullish bounce run out of funds, as the punters ready themselves for a trillion of new debt funding from Uncle Scam?

US Bills, Notes and Bonds are starting to look attractive to over priced dodgy stocks staring into a looming global recession.

A pause, a wobble, a final exit opportunity, or something more?

Even if the Fed skips an interest rate hike next week US rates are likely headed higher as the US Treasury scrambles to sell one trillion of debt, most of it between now and September into the summer doldrums.

Of course, the Fed could always just monetise the coming debt issues, but at what cost to the already wobbly Dollar Reserve Standard? What would the Saudis and OPEC+ think?

 

Asia markets slide further as market rally pauses on Wall Street

UPDATED THU, JUN 8 2023 12:44 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets slid as Wall Street saw a pause in its market rally and the broad market index fluctuated near its highest closing levels since August 2022. Investors in the region also further assessed economic data that has been released this week.

Australia stocks were down marginally, after the country’s trade surplus fell more than expected to 11.16 billion Australian dollars ($7.44 billion) in April.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 extended its slide from Wednesday in a volatile session and last fell 1.1%, leading losses in the region, while the Topix was down 0.75%

Japan’s annualized GDP for the first quarter was revised to 2.7%, higher than the 1.9% expected by economists polled by Reuters and the 1.6% posted in its preliminary figures.

South Korea’s Kospi inched down 0.59%, while the Kosdaq slipped 0.71%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed a brief rally on Wednesday and fell 0.29%, while mainland Chinese markets were also in the red. The Shanghai Composite was down 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component saw a larger loss of 0.27%.

India’s central bank has held rates at 6.5% for a second straight time, in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes ended mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.38% and 1.29% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27%.

Asia markets slide further as market rally pauses on Wall Street (cnbc.com)

 

European stocks head for a mixed open as global markets look for direction

UPDATED THU, JUN 8 2023 12:18 AM EDT

European stocks are heading for a mixed open as global markets appear hesitant and lacking in direction.

European stocks were mixed Wednesday, with sentiment downbeat, while Asia-Pacific markets slid overnight as Wall Street saw a pause in its market rally and U.S. stock futures were flat Wednesday evening.

Markets seem to be in a holding pattern while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on June 13 and 14. Economic signs suggest that inflation is inching downward, even though it remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

Markets are pricing about a 66% chance that the Fed keeps rates steady at the next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed on Wednesday night as rally hesitates: Live updates

UPDATED WED, JUN 7 2023 8:46 PM EDT

Stock futures were flat on Wednesday evening, as investors await the next market catalyst.

Futures linked to the S&P 500 ticked higher by 0.01%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched up by 0.01%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 12 points or 0.04%.

In after-hours action, GameStop shares tumbled roughly 19%. The video game retailer fired its CEO Matthew Furlong and appointed Ryan Cohen as its executive chairman.

During the regular session Wednesday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite appeared to take a breather from their recent rally. The broad-market index closed 0.38% lower, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.29%. The 30-stock Dow was the outlier, with a gain of 0.27% or 91.74 points.

“We’re in a bit of a news vacuum: Earnings are done, the debt ceiling is resolved, and we’re waiting for the Fed next week,” said Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners on “Closing Bell: Overtime” Wednesday. “It’s widely expected they will pause, but it’s really going to be important what their guidance is and what the [consumer price index] number on Tuesday will be and the [producer price index].”

Indeed, investors seem to be in a holding pattern while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting on June 13 and 14. Economic signs suggest that inflation is inching down, even as it remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Wage growth, for instance, is slowing. Wages rose 5.3% on an annual basis in May, down 0.4 percentage point from April, according to data from Indeed. Markets are pricing about a 66% chance that the Fed keeps rates steady at the next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

More economic data will arrive on Thursday morning, with weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories due.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Treasury’s $1 Trillion Debt Deluge Threatens Market Calm

U.S. government could face borrowing at rates near 6%, up from 0.1% less than two years ago

By Eric Wallerstein  Updated June 7, 2023 4:18 pm ET

Investors are bracing for a flood of more than $1 trillion of Treasury bills in the wake of the debt-ceiling fight, potentially sparking a new bout of volatility in financial markets. 

Some on Wall Street fear that roughly $850 billion in bond issuance that was shelved until a debt-ceiling deal was passed—sales expected between now and the end of September, according to JPMorgan analysts—will overwhelm buyers, jolting markets and raising short-term borrowing costs.

Few expect major upheaval, but many worry about the potential for unforeseen problems in the financial plumbing—where trillions of dollars worth of transactions occur daily—that could send tremors throughout markets. Many remember how money-market rates skyrocketed in 2019 during a period of low liquidity, necessitating intervention by the Federal Reserve.  

“When you dump a tremendous amount of debt into the market, it causes dislocation,” said Jon Maier, chief investment officer of Global X, an exchange-traded fund provider. “Investors are underestimating that.”

In recent months, markets have been relatively placid. The S&P 500 has gained 11% this year, buttressed by a resilient labor market, the AI-led tech stock rally, and signs that the Federal Reserve is entering the final stages of its interest-rate campaign. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge because it measures the price of options that investors often use to protect against stock declines, is now hovering at multiyear lows.

The calm comes even as short-term bond yields have already jumped in recent weeks, lifted by expectations for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. The two-year yield finished Wednesday at 4.548%, up more than 0.8 point from its year-to-date lows seen a month ago. The 10-year ended at 3.782%.

Now the Treasury Department is rapidly replenishing its coffers. A weaker-than-expected tax season, coupled with “extraordinary measures” enacted during the debt-ceiling fight to keep paying the government’s bills, has drained its checking account held at the Fed to below $50 billion as of the end of May. Officials last said it was targeting a balance of $600 billion for what’s known as the Treasury General Account, or TGA.

That could weigh on the large banks that are required to bid for Treasurys at auction through an agreement with the government as the so-called primary dealers could be effectively forced to finance the replenishment of the TGA. At the same time, regulators are seeking to boost banks’ cash buffers to avoid another banking crisis. Further draining liquidity from markets, the Fed is allowing its balance sheet to shrink. 

More

Treasury’s $1 Trillion Debt Deluge Threatens Market Calm - WS 

Finally in other sad news, Canada’s east coast wild fires are threatening more than the quality of life for millions. That this will have an economic drag effect on both the Canadian and US economies is a given, but it’s far too early to begin counting the economic and health cost impacts.

 

Smoke from Canadian wildfires engulfs East Coast, upending daily life

June 7, 2023

Smoke from hundreds of wildfires raging across Canada engulfed the eastern United States on Wednesday, upending the rhythms of daily life for tens of millions of Americans, creating a sea of “Code Red” air quality alerts as far south as the Carolinas and prompting widespread health worries.

Nowhere was the scene more haunting than in New York City, where a thick haze blanketed the Statue of Liberty, shrouded the skyscrapers of Manhattan, delayed a baseball game at Yankee Stadium and forced a temporary halt of flights into LaGuardia Airport due to low visibility. Mayor Eric Adams recommended people wear masks outdoors and canceled outdoor city events.

For the second day in a row, New York logged some of the worst air quality of any major city on the planet. But that was hardly the only place to experience the eerie, unsettling and throat-burning smoke that scientists say could become a more common occurrence in a warming world.

In Philadelphia, as elsewhere, schools canceled field trips, moved recess indoors and postponed athletic matches. In Washington, where monuments along the National Mall sat shrouded in the afternoon gloom, commuters donned masks that for the first time in years had nothing to do with a pandemic.

“It looks like Mars outside,” said Dennis Scannell, the co-owner of a typically bustling but now silent baseball and softball training facility in Syracuse. The city’s Air Quality Index — a measure of outdoor pollution — registered 402 late Wednesday morning. Healthy is considered below 50.

In Binghamton, N.Y., the National Weather Service office tweeted about the dimming sky just before 10 a.m. “Sun is no longer visible, everything’s orange, the parking lot lights have come on,” it read, alongside a photo of the otherworldly scene.

As of early Wednesday, Canadian officials reported more than 400 active fires, with roughly 240 listed as “out of control.” The worst-affected province is Quebec, where at least 154 fires have been recorded.

At the current pace, government officials said this week, Canada is on track to experience the worst wildfire season in its recorded history. Already this year, roughly 2,300 wildfires have burned roughly 9.4 million acres, according to government data. In the Atlantic province of Nova Scotia, unusually intense blazes this year have scorched more land than in the past 10 years combined.

Warm and dry conditions will increase wildfire risk in most of Canada this month, according to the Canadian government, which also expects “higher-than-normal fire activity” to continue throughout the wildfire season. The drier weather and high temperatures fueled by a warming atmosphere are exacerbating the damage, Canadian officials say.

More

Smoke from Canadian wildfires engulfs East Coast, upending daily life (msn.com) 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Is it a ‘skip’ or a ‘pause’? Federal Reserve won’t likely raise rates next week but maybe next month

June 7, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — When an increasingly fractious committee of Federal Reserve policymakers meets next week, Chair Jerome Powell will need to forge a consensus.

One group of Fed officials would like to pause their relentless campaign of rate increases after 10 straight hikes to allow time to look around and assess whether higher borrowing rates are slowing inflation.

But a second group worries that inflation is still too high and thinks the Fed should continue hiking at least once or twice more — beginning next week.

So how will Powell achieve an accord between the two?

By turning what might normally be considered a “pause” into a “skip.” Whereas a “pause” might suggest that the Fed won’t necessarily raise its benchmark rate again, a “skip” implies that it probably will — just not now. When Powell speaks at a news conference next week, he will likely make clear that the Fed’s key rate — which has elevated the costs of mortgages, auto loans, credit card and business borrowing — may go even higher.

One way the Fed may signal the likelihood of a future rate hike could come in the quarterly economic projections the policymakers will issue. The projections may show that the officials expect their key rate to rise a quarter-point by year’s end — to about 5.4%, above their estimate in March. This would illustrate their belief that next week’s rate decision isn’t so much a pause as a skip.

“That’s probably the only way to keep the committee cohesive in an environment where they have seem to have somewhat broadening disagreements,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

More

Is it a 'skip' or a 'pause'? Federal Reserve won't likely raise rates next week but maybe next month | AP News

Bank of Canada hikes rates to 4.75%, highest in 22 years

PUBLISHED WED, JUN 7 2023 10:23 AM EDT

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday hiked its key overnight benchmark rate to 4.75%, the highest level in 22 years, on increasing concerns that inflation could get stuck significantly above its 2% target amid persistently strong economic growth.    

The central bank had been on hold since January to assess the impact of previous hikes after raising borrowing costs eight times to a 15-year high of 4.50% - the fastest tightening cycle in the bank’s history.    

Surprisingly strong consumer spending, a rebound in demand for services, a pick-up in housing activity and a tight labor market show excess demand in the economy is more persistent than anticipated, the central bank said in a statement.    

Noting an uptick in inflation in April and the fact three-month measures of core inflation had run as high as 4% for several months, the Bank of Canada (BoC) said, “concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target”.   

Given this backdrop, the governing council determined “monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.”    

The last time the rate hit 4.75% was in April and May 2001.    

Both money markets and analysts had seen a chance for a rate increase, but many thought one more likely at the next meeting in July. About two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters last week expected the central bank to keep rates on hold through to end-2023.

More

Bank of Canada hikes rates to 4.75%, highest in 22 years (cnbc.com)

House prices: London and south east falling faster than rest of the country

WEDNESDAY 07 JUNE 2023 7:41 AM

London house prices have fallen 1.2 per cent in the last year in a sign that the brief upturn in the market is now slowly beginning to fade. 

According to figures by Halifax, homes across the south remain under the greatest pressure from falling prices – with homes in the South East now costing £385k  representing a -1.6 per cent annual decline. 

 

In the capital the average price of a home now costs £536k, down -1.2 per cent annually. 

 

“Property prices have now fallen by about £3,000 over the last 12 months and are down around £7,500 from the peak in August,” Kim Kinnaird, director, Halifax Mortgages, said. 

“But prices are still £5,000 up since the end of last year, and £25,000 above the level of two years ago,” she added. 

The average home has tipped into negative territory over the past year, at -1 per cent, according to the building society.

Despite a surge in sales in early spring, the market has struggled as a new economic environment make its presence felt.

Upward momentum on house prices has largely been bruised by the Bank of England’s decision to hike interest rates to 4.5 per cent, which in turn led lenders to raise rates on mortgages.

Since then approvals on mortgages have further dwindled and buyer confidence has been shattered. 

More

House prices: London and South East property falling faster than rest of the country (cityam.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

WHO Adopts European-Style COVID-19 Vaccine Passports as Part of New Global Digital Health Certificate

June 5, 2023 Updated: June 6, 2023

The World Health Organization (WHO) said it will take up the European Union’s digital COVID-19 vaccine passport framework as part of a new global network of digital health certificates.

The WHO said in a June 5 statement that it had entered into a “landmark digital health partnership” with the European Commission (EC), the European Union’s executive body.

As part of this new joint venture, Europe’s existing framework of digital vaccine passports will serve as the first building block of a global network of digital health products.

Dubbed the Global Digital Health Certification Network, the new vaccine passport framework has already drawn criticism, with Australian senator Alex Antic saying in a statement that the move is “just another conspiracy theory coming true.”

Vaccine passports—and various other forms of digital identity schemes—have been criticized as an invasion of privacy and as having the potential to enable governments and corporations to coerce human behavior by, for instance, denying access to infrastructure or services.

The WHO said in a statement that, as part of the new initiative, it will “take up the European Union (EU) system of digital COVID-19 certification to establish a global system that will help facilitate global mobility and protect citizens across the world from on-going and future health threats.”

The EU’s digital COVID-19 vaccine certificate entered into force in July 2021, with over 2.3 billion certificates issued.

As the pandemic has waned, the use of vaccine passports has seen limited use of late—and it has declined further since the WHO recently declared an end to COVID-19 as a global public health emergency.

While the EU Digital COVID Certificate Regulation is set to expire at the end of June 2023, the WHO sees potential in the bloc’s digital vaccine passport framework for additional use cases beyond COVID-19, such as by digitizing the International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis.

Critics have denounced vaccine passports as discriminatory for facilitating denial of access to public services to the unvaccinated or paving the way for more intrusive health-based surveillance.

More

WHO Adopts European-Style COVID-19 Vaccine Passports as Part of New Global Digital Health Certificate (theepochtimes.com)

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene Sensors May Help to Detect Sepsis Earlier in Critically Ill Patients

June 7, 2023

A new study from the University of Bath has shown that graphene-based biosensors, designed by Integrated Graphene, have the potential to play a major role in detecting increased levels of lactate, an important biomarker for the treatment of critically ill patients.

The research, published in Sensor and Actuators: B.Chemical, shows that Integrated Graphene’s Gii-Sens™ electrochemical sensor can improve accuracy in the diagnosis of hyperlactatemia, a common complication in intensive care units.

Hyperlactatemia results from a lack of oxygen reaching tissues or as a result of an underlying condition, such as advanced liver disease. Untreated hyperlactatemia can lead to lactate acidosis, which causes severe illness and can be fatal. Reliable real-time lactate detection through single-point or continuous monitoring could help to improve the outcomes of patients in critical care and could hasten the diagnosis of sepsis in critically ill patients.

Based in Stirling, Integrated Graphene’s flagship product, Gii-Sens™ is a biosensing electrode for diagnostics which outperforms traditional sensing materials by 10-100 times, allowing for cost effective, lab precision testing within minutes at the point of need. Other applications of the technology include quality control in the food production industry, and wearable lactate sensors which can be used to monitor an athlete’s performance in real time.

Dr Marco Caffio, Integrated Graphene’s Co-Founder and CSO, said: “Lactate is a naturally occurring biomarker which everyone produces as a byproduct of exercising. For most people it is easily processed by the body and will cause no major harm, apart from a little cramp if you overexert yourself.

“However, for some critically ill patients and those with underlying conditions it can be a sign of a range of other issues, some of which, like sepsis, can be fatal. Having a robust way of monitoring lactate levels is important in ensuring the best possible outcomes for these patients. The findings of this study demonstrate Gii’s reliable performance and potential to save lives.”

Source: https://www.integratedgraphene.com/

Graphene Sensors May Help to Detect Sepsis Earlier in Critically Ill Patients (azonano.com)

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz.