Baltic Dry Index. 1233 -07 Brent Crude 74.58
Spot Gold 1929 US 2 Year Yield 4.65 -0.06
"I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think."
Warren Buffett.
In the stock casinos, it’s time to dump losers, rotate into safety
ahead of a very iffy H2 23 and generally dress up the portfolio ahead of the
end of quarter and half year.
In H2 23, a commercial real estate bust looks to be arriving just
when the global economy seems to be hitting the lagged effect of all the global
interest rate hikes. Our inept central banksters are still promising even more
interest rate hikes to come. What planet are they living on?
H2 23 is starting to look very ugly and that’s before Russia became
a new unstable problem at the weekend.
Adding extra tension to the mix, a growing political corruption
scandal in Washington, District of Crooks.
All in all, a good time to hedge risk with a little fully paid up
physical gold and silver, preferably held out of the larcenous reach of Uncle
Sam and John Bull.
Asia markets
mixed after Wall Street sees tech sell-off
UPDATED MON, JUN 26 2023 10:15 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed on Tuesday, after
Wall Street’s tech sell-off which saw Tesla tumbling 6% after Goldman
Sachs downgraded the electric car maker, citing pricing
headwinds.
Other major tech names like Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta Platforms also lost
more than 3% each.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 opened
0.66% higher ahead of tomorrow’s inflation figures for May, which will give a
clue to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate moves in August.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 extended
its losses after three straight days of declines, falling 0.78%, with the Topix
seeing a smaller loss of 0.53%.
South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq
also saw declines, and fell 0.1% and 0.75% respectively.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rebounded
from its five-day losing streak and opened 1.58% up. Mainland Chinese markets
were also in positive territory, with the Shanghai Composite up
0.19% and the Shenzhen
Component 0.49% higher.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes fell, with the
tech heavy Nasdaq Composite leading losses and shedding 1.16%, the S&P 500 lost 0.45%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped marginally.
Asia
markets mixed after Wall Street sees tech sell-off (cnbc.com)
Stock futures rise slightly as investors await
economic data in run-up to month, quarter end
UPDATED MON, JUN 26 2023 8:12 PM
EDT
Stock futures were modestly higher Monday night
as investors looked toward the next batch of economic data and readied for the
end of June and the second quarter.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 41 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100
futures each also gained around 0.2%
Those moves follow a
losing day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq Composite led
the way down, dropping nearly 1.2% as investors took profits on some technology
stocks. Tesla slid
6%, while Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta Platforms all
finished more than 3% lower.
The S&P 500 closed
down by about 0.5%, while the Dow was
finished slightly below flat. It was the sixth consecutive negative session for
the 30-stock Dow, its longest losing streak since September 2022.
Despite Monday’s leg down, the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on pace to finish June more than 3% higher,
while the Dow is poised for a monthly advance of nearly 2.5%.
Friday’s close will mark the end
of the second quarter and first half of 2023. The Nasdaq has gained more than
9% in the quarter, while the S&P 500 and Dow are on track to finish the
period up more than 5% and 1%, respectively.
“It’s not unusual to see those
trends that have persisted all the way through the quarter start to kind of
reverse themselves a little bit at the very end,” said Scott Ladner, CIO at
Horizon Investments. “The fact that small caps are doing well today and the
Nasdaq is doing poorly today is probably as much a reflection on just that
portfolio rebalancing effect at the end of the quarter than anything else.”
Indeed, the Russell 2000 ended
Monday with a marginal gain of 0.09%.
Investors will be watching
Tuesday for a crop of morning data that includes home sales, durable goods and
consumer confidence. Walgreens is
slated to report quarterly earnings before the bell.
They will also watch for any
developments out of Russia following the brief rebellion seen
over the weekend.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other real economy news, in Euroland, it’s all going/gone
horribly wrong. Grexit anyone?
Not that things are much better in China.
Commercial real estate heads out of boom times into a new bust.
German business
sentiment falls further in June
June
26, 2023
BERLIN
(Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in
June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces
an uphill battle to shake off recession.
The Ifo
institute said its business climate index stood at 88.5 following a reading of
91.5 in May. A Reuters poll of analysts had predicted a fall to 90.7 in June.
"Sentiment
in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president
Clemens Fuest said.
Expectations
were significantly more pessimistic, falling to 83.6 in June from 88.3 in May.
Companies also assessed their current situation more poorly, with the sentiment
evaluating current conditions falling to 93.7 from 94.8.
German business sentiment falls further in June
(msn.com)
Sharp slowdown in
growth of bank lending for euro zone and Germany forecast
June 26, 2023
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - High interest rates will keep a lid on the pace of bank lending in
Europe this year and next, with a particular slowdown in growth in Germany as
demand for loans tails off, according to a study by consulting firm EY.
Lending to
businesses and households in the 20-nation euro zone will expand 2.1% in 2023
and 1.7% in 2024, muted increases after a 14-year high of 5% in 2022, EY said
in its lending forecast published Monday.
The European
Central Bank last year began raising interest rates in response to the highest
inflation in decades, with a recent move in its key rate to a 22-year high and
signals of more to come. The euro zone meanwhile dipped into recession earlier
this year.
"While
the downturn is expected to be very shallow and short-lived, European markets
continue to face high inflation and an unprecedented rise in interest rates. As
a result, lending volumes are expected to be challenged by a fall in loan
demand, at least for the next two years," EY said.
The slowdown
in Germany, the region's largest economy, was forecast to be especially
pronounced, with growth of 2.8% in 2023 and 0.3% in 2024, a big drop from 6.9%
in 2022.
Mortgage
lending is a particular area of weakness, with lending set to grow 1.4% in
2023, down from 4.9% in 2022.
The ECB's
latest lending survey, published in May, also found that lending growth to
businesses and households slowed.
Sharp slowdown in growth of bank lending for euro zone
and Germany forecast (msn.com)
German central bank
risks bailout after money printing spree
June 26, 2023
Germany’s central bank may need a
bailout to cover losses on the debt it hoovered up as part of the European
Central Bank’s (ECB) massive bond-buying programme, the country’s federal
auditor has warned.
The Bundesrechnungshof said losses
faced by the Bundesbank on more than €650bn (£570bn) of bond purchases were
“substantial” and “could necessitate a recapitalisation with budgetary funds”.
The critical report of the
ECB’s so-called public sector purchase programme (PSPP) – akin to quantitative easing in the
UK and US – throws future
bond-buying sprees to prop up the single currency bloc in doubt.
Economists have blamed
bond-buying programmes for stoking inflation amid a series of negative supply
shocks that have increased the risk of economies overheating.
Steep rate hikes by the ECB meant that the Bundesbank suffered a €1bn hit to
its bond holdings last year alone.
This is because the central
bank is now paying more in interest to commercial banks on deposits at the
Bundesbank than the interest it earns on its stockpile of bonds. The ECB
started reducing the size of its balance sheet this spring.
The losses are similar to those
seen in the UK, where the
Bank of England has estimated that transfers between the Treasury and the Bank
will amount to around £30bn annually over the next three years alone.
Unlike in
Germany, losses on the Bank’s stockpile of bonds are automatically covered by
the taxpayer under a deal struck by former Chancellor Alistair Darling to
indemnify the Bank when bond-buying during the financial crisis.
Joachim
Nagel, president of Germany’s central bank, warned back in March that the
“burdens on the Bundesbank’s profit and loss account are likely to increase
considerably in the years to come”.
German central bank risks bailout after money printing
spree (msn.com)
China Slowdown
China’s consumer-driven recovery is showing more
signs of losing momentum as
spending slows on everything from holiday travel to cars and homes, adding to
expectations for more stimulus to support the economy.
Domestic travel spending during the recent
holiday for the dragon-boat festival was lower than pre-pandemic
levels, according to official data released this weekend. Home sales figures
are below the level in previous years, while estimates for
June car sales showed a drop from a year ago.
The rebound in consumption after China shed its
Covid controls has propelled growth so far this year, but confidence is weak
and evidence is mounting that the economy may need more help.
Stock Markets
Today - Bloomberg
Analysis: HSBC dumps London tower for smaller office as real
estate reckoning unfolds
June
27, 202312:41 AM GMT+1
LONDON, June 27
(Reuters) - HSBC's (HSBA.L) move to ditch its 45-floor
Canary Wharf tower in favour of a much smaller development in central London is
one of the most visible examples yet of an office downsizing trend that's
rocking commercial real estate markets globally.
Europe's
largest bank told staff on Monday that it planned to
quit the skyscraper that bears its name in the east London financial district
and move some 8,000 workers to a redeveloped office complex overlooking St
Paul's Cathedral.
A recent spate of
downsizing moves by major employers comes as landlords and real estate
developers already face a crunch from soaring financing costs, adding to
pressure on the sector.
Companies globally
are ditching large office buildings at an unprecedented rate as home working takes
hold after the COVID-19 pandemic and as businesses opt for greener offices to
meet testing sustainability targets.
It's a trend that's
already challenging the business models of large office landlords and has the
potential to reshape cities, property analysts and experts say.
"Home working
has shrunk the amount of space HSBC need. That won't be unique to them,"
said Tony Travers, director of the London School of Economics' London research
group.
London's
traditional financial hub the City of London and Canary Wharf have competed for
company headquarters since the 1980s, but competitive rents may lure companies
that had previously balked at the cost back to city centres, Travers added.
Around half of
the world's largest employers plan to reduce office space in the next three
years, typically by 10% to 20%, a survey by property agent Knight Frank
last month found.
The
ripple effects of so many companies slashing office space has significantly
impacted wider markets.
Real
estate came top of an index of Europe's most distressed sectors for the
first quarter of 2023, according to data compiled by law firm Weil Gotshal
& Manges, driven by a squeeze on valuations, liquidity and investment.
More
Analysis:
HSBC dumps London tower for smaller office as real estate reckoning unfolds |
Reuters
Finally, more on so you really, really,
really want to drive an EV.
EV Range Dips Nearly 25 Percent While Carrying Load: AAA
EVs
fail to perform in adverse climatic conditions and when carrying heavy loads,
giving credence to consumers’ range anxiety
Updated: June 16, 2023
The range of electric vehicles can fall by up to a
quarter when made to carry heavy loads, according to a study conducted by the
American Automobile Association (AAA) on Ford’s EV pickup truck F-150 Lightning.
In an unloaded state, the 2022 Lightning had a
driving range of 278 miles. However, with a payload of 1,400 pounds, the
driving range dropped to 210 miles, a decline of 68 miles or 24.5 percent from
the unloaded range, according to the June 13 study.
Such payloads are equivalent to hauling around 20 bags of concrete mix. AAA
advised that prospective buyers of EVs who are likely to carry heavy loads
regularly should “consider the impact this can have to their driving range.”
“This study is important for broadening our
understanding of the limitations of electric vehicles,” said Adrienne Woodland,
spokesperson for AAA, according to a June 13 post.
“Range anxiety remains a top reason consumers are hesitant to switch from
gasoline-powered vehicles to EVs.”
Greg Brannon, director of AAA Automotive Engineering,
pointed out that though the test revealed a “significant range reduction,” it
was done with the EV loaded near its maximum capacity.
More
EV Range Dips Nearly 25 Percent While Carrying Load: AAA (theepochtimes.com)
The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion — policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners — had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.
Solemn pledges were broken, retroactive laws were promulgated, provisions of constitutions and bills of rights were openly defied. And hosts of servile writers praised what the governments had done and hailed the dawn of the fiat-money millennium.
Ludwig von Mises.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
In reality,
there is no such thing as an inflation of prices, relatively to gold. There is such
a thing as a depreciated paper currency.
Lysander
Spooner.
State handouts and
money printing responsible for inflation crisis, says top central banker
June 26, 2023
Massive
taxpayer handouts and a money-printing spree helped stoke inflation in Britain
and around the world, with years of interest rate pain now needed to get the
crisis under control according to a top central banker.
Agustin
Carstens, head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), said that
governments and central banks went too far in dishing out cash during Covid.
The
authorities now face a battle to bring inflation under control that could last
until 2027 according to the institution, which is known as the central bank of
central banks.
In comments
that will be regarded as critical of the policies pursued by the Treasury
and Bank of England after the pandemic struck, Mr Carstens said: “While
understandable as the Covid crisis broke out, with the benefit of hindsight, it
is now clear that the fiscal and monetary policy support was too large, too
broad-based and too long-lasting.”
In Britain,
the Bank of England cut interest rates to 0.1pc when lockdown was imposed
and launched two vast waves of quantitative easing, printing money and pumping
it into the economy by buying bonds.
This
support only came to an end in December 2021, when policymakers were
forced to raise rates to tackle rising inflation that they had initially
dismissed as transitory.
Mr Carsten’s
comments contradict claims by the Bank, made at a select committee hearing in
May, that the idea quantitative easing caused double-digit inflation “is not
well supported”.
More
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging
– here’s why
PUBLISHED SAT, JUN 24 2023 8:00 AM EDT UPDATED SUN, JUN 25 2023 9:17 AM
EDT
The Federal Reserve plans to keep
hiking interest rates to stem inflation, which means an increase in corporate
default rates is likely in coming months.
The corporate default rate rose in May, a sign
that U.S. companies are grappling with higher interest rates that make it more
expensive to refinance debt as well as an uncertain economic outlook.
There have been 41 defaults in the U.S. and one in
Canada so far this year, the most in any region globally and more than double
the same period in 2022, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said
to expect more interest rate increases this year, albeit at a slower rate, until more progress is made on
lowering inflation.
Bankers and analysts say high interest rates are
the biggest culprit of distress. Companies that are either in need of more
liquidity or those that already have hefty debt loads in need of refinancing
are faced with a high cost of new debt.
The options often include distressed exchanges,
which is when a company swaps its debt for another form of debt or repurchases
the debt. Or, in dire circumstances, a restructuring may take place in or out
of court.
“Capital is much more expensive now,” said Mohsin
Meghji, founding partner of restructuring and advisory firm M3 Partners. “Look
at the cost of debt. You could reasonably get debt financing for 4% to 6% at
any point on average over the last 15 years. Now that cost of debt has gone up
to 9% to 13%.”
Meghji added that his firm has been particularly
busy since the fourth quarter across numerous industries. While the most
troubled companies have been affected recently, he expects companies with more
financial stability to have issues refinancing due to high interest rates.
Through June 22, there were 324 bankruptcy
filings, not far behind the total of 374 in 2022, according to S&P Global
Market Intelligence. There were more than 230 bankruptcy filings through April
of this year, the highest rate for that period since 2010.
---- In many cases, these defaults are months, if not quarters,
in the making, said Tero Jänne, co-head of capital transformation and debt
advisory at investment bank Solomon Partners.
“The default rate is
a lagging indicator of distress,” Jänne said. “A lot of times those defaults
don’t occur until well past a number of initiatives to address the balance
sheet, and it’s not until a bankruptcy you see that capital D default come into
play.”
Moody’s expects the
global default rate to rise to 4.6% by the end of the year, higher than the
long-term average of 4.1%. That rate is projected to rise to 5% by April 2024
before beginning to ease.
More
Corporate
bankruptcies surge on high interest rates, uncertainty (cnbc.com)
Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible — forms which only the precious metals provide.
Elgin Groseclose.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Dominican basketball
player 'suffers fatal heart attack during stress test after claiming compulsory
COVID-19 vaccine gave him myocarditis and caused him to collapse in 2021'
·
A Dominican basketball player
died this week from an apparent heart attack
·
The 28-year-old previously said
he contracted myocarditis from COVID vaccine
A Dominican basketball
player died this week from an apparent heart attack after previously blaming a
case of myocarditis on two 'compulsory' doses of the Pfizer vaccine he received during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Óscar Cabrera Adames, 28,
was battling myocarditis – an inflammation of the heart – prompting a stress
test in Santo Domingo this week, where he suffered a heart attack and died,
according to multiple reports. It is not clear if the stress test caused the
heart attack. Dominican sports writer Hector Gomez was among the first to report on his
passing.
Myocarditis reduces the heart's ability to pump blood, making strenuous exercise potentially fatal, according to the American Heart Association.
After his death,
Cabrera Adames' old social media posts resurfaced, showing him blaming the rare
disease on the COVID vaccine.
'I got a damn
Myocarditis from taking a f***ing vaccine (I got 2 doses of Pfizer),' read a
portion of his translated social media post from January. 'And I knew it! Many
people warned me. But guess what? It was compulsory or I couldn't work. I am an
international professional athlete and I am playing in Spain. I have no health
problem, nothing, not hereditary, no asthma, NOTHING!'
Cabrera Adames was
playing in a Spanish amateur league in 2021 when he fainted during a game.
'I suddenly
collapsed to the ground in the middle of a match and almost died,' read his
social media post. 'I'm still recovering and I've had 11 different cardiology
tests done and guess? They find nothing.'
There have only been around 1,000 cases of myocarditis
among people who received the vaccine, according to WebMD. Most who have
contract myocarditis did so within several days of getting the vaccine, and
recovered quickly.
'Most cases of myocarditis
are self-resolving,' read an article by Johns
Hopkins Medicine, a hospital
affiliated with one of the country's top medical schools. 'Other cases recover
several months after you receive treatment. In some cases, this condition can
recur and can cause symptoms related to inflammation such as chest pain or
shortness of breath.'
There may also be a connection between COVID-19 infection
and myocarditis.
In one
study, 43 million cases were
analyzed by the American Heart Association, which found that the risk of
myocarditis was substantially higher after being infected with COVID rather
than being vaccinated against the virus.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists rubbish 'gobbledygook'
document falsely linking Covid vaccines and graphene
Published on Monday 26 June 2023 at 06:59
Multiple social media posts have shared a purported laboratory report that falsely claims several Covid vaccine brands contain graphene -- a substance frequently mentioned in posts that promote anti-vaccine misinformation. Scientists have repeatedly said graphene is not an ingredient of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca or Moderna vaccines. The contents of the purported laboratory report are "gobbledygook", a virology professor told AFP.
"This report is the result of a collaboration between EbMCsquared CiC and UNIT in an effort to identify the undeclared contents of vaccines being given to the public in the UK, causing a high number of side effects and deaths," reads the Malay-language caption of a Facebook post shared on June 12, 2023.
"The types of vaccines involved in this investigation are Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna," it adds.
"An independent laboratory in the UK has analyzed the sample using RAMAN spectroscopy and found the presence of GRAPHENE."
The post shares a link to a lenghty document which says the alleged study was a product of a "joint cooperation between EbMCsquared CiC and UNIT".
The logo of an entity called "Global Humanitarian
Crisis Prevention and Response Unit" appears in the document.
It goes on to say the vaccine monitoring systems in the
United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union have all shown
"the rates of increase of death and significant harm are increasing"
as Covid jabs are rolled out.
Similar posts also circulated on Facebook here, here and here since at least February 2022.
The claim also also appeared in English and French.
'Gobbledygook
However, AFP has not found any credible website or social
media page for EbMCsquared CiC, UNIT or the Global Humanitarian Crisis
Prevention and Response Unit, the alleged entities responsible for the report.
Ian Jones, a professor of virology at Britain's Reading
University, described the document as "gobbledygook" (archived link).
"It has pieced together buzz words to sound alarmist
but in fact contains no scientifically accurate information," he told AFP
on June 20, 2023.
More
We have gold because we cannot
trust governments.
Herbert Hoover.
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