Baltic Dry Index. 1240 +24 Brent Crude 73.85
Spot Gold 1921 U S 2 Year Yield 4.71 -0.06
"I
see you don't understand, and I must explain it to you. Well, very long ago, on
the spot where the Wild Wood waves now, before ever it had planted itself and
grown up to what it now is, there was a city--a city of people, you know. Here,
where we are standing, they lived, and walked, and talked, and slept, and
carried on their business. Here they stabled their horses and feasted, from
here they rode out to fight or drove out to trade. They were a powerful people,
and rich, and great builders. They built to last, for they thought their city
would last for ever."
Kenneth
Grahame. The Wind in the Willows.
Wagner head suggests his mercenaries headed for Moscow to
take on army leadership
June 24, 20235:35 AM GMT+1
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin
appeared to suggest he had sent an armed convoy on a 1,200-km (750-mile) charge
towards Moscow on Saturday in an unlikely attempt to topple the military
leadership.
Russian local officials said a military convoy was on the main motorway
linking the southern part of European Russia, bordering Ukraine, with Moscow,
and warned residents to avoid it.
Hours earlier, the Russian authorities had accused Prigozhin of staging
an armed mutiny after he alleged, without providing evidence, that the military
leadership had killed a huge number of his fighters in an air strike, and vowed
to punish them.
The FSB domestic security service said it had opened a criminal case
against Prigozhin for armed mutiny, a crime punishable with a jail term of up
to 20 years.
The dramatic turn of events, with many details unclear, looked like the
biggest domestic crisis President Vladimir Putin has faced since he ordered a
full-scale invasion of Ukraine - something he called a "special military
operation" - in February last year.
Prigozhin, whose Wagner militia spearheaded the capture of the Ukrainian
city of Bakhmut last month, has for months been openly accusing Defence
Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of rank
incompetence and of denying Wagner ammunition and support in its battles in
Ukraine.
As their feud appeared to come to a head, the ministry issued a
statement saying Prigozhin's accusations were "not true and are an informational
provocation".
More
Wagner
head suggests his mercenaries headed for Moscow to take on army leadership | Reuters
Ukraine
war live updates: Russian intelligence service calls for Wagner chief’s arrest
after he vowed to ‘punish’ military leaders
UPDATED FRI, JUN 23 20237:50 PM
EDT
Tensions continue to rise between Russian military
leaders and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company.
Prigozhin accused the Kremlin of deliberately bombing Wagner troops. The
Russian Ministry of Defense denied the accusations, calling the mercenary
chief’s messages on Telegram ‘informational provocation.’
Earlier, Prigozhin alleged that the Kremlin’s
justification for invading Ukraine was based on lies.
Ukraine’s military said it shot down 13 Russian
cruise missiles headed for a military airfield in the western region of
Khmelnitskyi. In the areas of intense combat, Ukraine reported its forces
advanced in the south and stopped a Russian offensive toward the eastern cities
of Lyman and Kupiansk.
Russian authorities denied the claims of Ukrainian
progress, and Russia’s forces still hold a large amount of territory in
Ukraine’s east and south. Ukrainian military leaders admit that the most
difficult fighting is yet to come as the country’s long-awaited
counteroffensive has yet to make significant gains.
“We still have the main events ahead of us,”
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar told media. “And the main blow
is still to come. Indeed, some of the reserves - these are staged things - will
be activated later.”
Meanwhile, the EU has adopted its 11th sanctions
package against Russia.
Live
updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com)
Europe
stocks close lower at end of gloomy week; Siemens Energy down 37%
UPDATED FRI, JUN 23 2023 11:52 AM EDT
European stock markets closed lower Friday after
four sessions of declines.
The Stoxx 600 index
closed 0.3% lower, with most sectors in negative territory. Oil and gas stocks
fell 2.2% as oil prices traded
lower, and mining stocks dropped 1.7%. Health care and telecoms stocks led
modest gains, each closing 0.7% higher respectively.
Siemens
Energy,
the spinoff of the German conglomerate, plunged 37% after ditching
its profit outlook for the year because of issues in its wind
turbine division.
Downbeat market sentiment has been reflected
globally, with Wall
Street heading for a losing week and Asia-Pacific markets
largely lower, as investors process a variety of interest rate decisions from
central banks and what they mean for growth.
The Bank of England delivered a hawkish
surprise Thursday, hiking by 50 basis points after both wage
growth and inflation figures
came in hotter than expected.
It comes after the European
Central Bank enacted a
25 basis point rate rise, while the U.S. Federal Reserve opted for a pause —
though it stressed more
hikes are likely.
China’s central bank last week lowered lending
rates as the economy’s much-anticipated post-Covid rebound stutters.
Oil prices are on course for a
more than 3% drop this week, according to Reuters, pulled down by
demand concerns and the economic growth outlook.
On the data front, U.K. consumer confidence as
measured in a GfK survey ticked higher for a fifth consecutive month and by
more than expected despite intense cost-of-living pressures and concerns over a
coming mortgage
crunch.
Also out of the U.K., retail
sales figures showed a 0.3% rise in May, following a 0.5% uptick in April.
In the euro zone, flash purchasing managers’ index data showed a
fall from 52.8 to 50.3, representing a near-stalling of growth. A reading below
50 indicates a contraction.
European
markets live updates: BOE fallout, UK consumer confidence (cnbc.com)
Eurozone economy slows sharply amid fresh recession fears
The eurozone economy has
slowed sharply and will struggle to break out of recession, according to a
closely watched survey of businesses.
Output
across the bloc stagnated in June, according to the latest Purchasing
Manufacturers’ Index (PMI) survey from S&P Global, driven by a sharp
slowdown in France after the European Central Bank raised interest
rates to their highest level since 2001.
The
PMI reading came in at 50.3 – a steep drop from 52.8 in May and its lowest
elvel in five months. Anything below 50 signals that private sector
activity is declining.
Economists
said that the data suggests the single currency area could shrink again this
quarter.
It
comes after official figures showed the 20-nation bloc slipped into a technical
recession at the start of 2023, contracting by 0.1pc in the first
three months of the year following a similar decline in the final quarter of
2022. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, also fell into recession at the start
of the year.
Carsten
Brzeski, an economist at ING, said: “This is a severe slowdown. We are clearly
heading for another weak quarter, with a possible flirtation with recession
again.”
Chris
Hare, an economist at HSBC, said: “The PMIs don’t always deliver a perfect
steer on near term growth.
“But if these headwinds do prove to be having a material impact,
that raises questions around the scope for a recovery from the eurozone’s mild
winter recession in Q2 and beyond.”
S&P Global said the French economy was most at risk
of shrinking in the current quarter, even though energy and
supply chain worries have eased. Confidence across the bloc also deteriorated,
with expectations for the year ahead declining markedly to a seven-month
low in June.
Michael Kirker, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said the bloc was
likely to stagnate for the foreseeable future.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Deepening economic pain leaves ECB in policy dilemma
June 23, 2023 10:04 AM GMT+1
LONDON/FRANKFURT, June 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business growth stalled
this month as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient
services sector barely grew, leaving the European Central Bank in a policy
dilemma as it presses ahead with rate hikes to fight inflation.
HCOB's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the 20 nations
sharing the euro currency, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge
of overall economic health, sank to a five-month low of 50.3 in June from May's
52.8.
That was barely above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and
below all forecasts in a Reuters poll that saw a modest decline to 52.5.
The figures suggest that the bloc's economy is at best stagnating after
a recession in the previous two quarters and a recovery is nowhere on the
horizon, even if robust holiday bookings suggest that the tourism sector could
keep the bloc afloat in the near term.
"This speaks against a recovery of the economy in the coming
months, which is expected by many," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil
said. "We see our assessment confirmed that the euro area economy will
contract again in the second half of the year."
"The so far 400 basis points of ECB rate hikes are increasingly
slowing down the economy," he added.
For the ECB, the data deepen a dilemma.
Inflation at just over 6% is far too high and the labour market is
running hot, suggesting more price pressures ahead as workers enjoy improved
bargaining power.
But economic activity is weak and the ECB has clearly failed in its goal
of tightening policy just enough to contain price pressures without pushing the
bloc into recession.
Another issue is that a recession would normally push up unemployment,
making the bank's job easier.
But firms appear to be hoarding labour, keenly remembering how difficult
it was to hire back workers after the pandemic and offering the ECB little
relief.
Indeed, the jobless rate is at a historic low and nominal wage growth is
at its highest in decades, even if wages are just catching up after inflation
eroded their real value.
Friday's PMI data only confirm this trend, as firms still increased
headcount this month, with the employment index at 54.1, somewhat below May's
54.6.
For now, policy hawks who fear inflation more than a recession, appear
to be in a majority.
----The ECB has de facto promised a rate hike in
July and quite a few policymakers have also put one more move, to 4%, on the
table for September or October.
Friday's real surprise was that PMI data covering the services industry
slumped to 52.4 from 55.1, well below a median forecast of 54.5.
While Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, outperformed on services,
France was a big drag with a services PMI at 48.
More
Deepening economic
pain leaves ECB in policy dilemma | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Federal Agency Issues Advisory on Symptoms Linked to ‘Long COVID’
June 22, 2023
The U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS) issued an advisory Wednesday about mental health symptoms
linked to “long COVID,” or suspected long-lasting symptoms caused by COVID-19.
Long COVID occurs when people
recover from the COVID-19 virus but then experience symptoms that last more
than three months, including fatigue, headaches, sleep problems, coughing, and
cognitive impairment. While some medical professionals believe it’s largely exaggerated, HHS has signaled
that it’s a real phenomenon.
“Long COVID has a range of burdensome physical symptoms, and can take a toll on a person’s mental health. It can be very challenging for a person, whether they are impacted themselves, or they are a caregiver for someone who is affected,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a release on June 21. “This advisory helps to raise awareness, especially among primary care practitioners and clinicians who are often the ones treating patients with Long COVID.”
Another HHS
official, Miriam E. Delphin-Rittmon, said that individuals with “long
COVID” should be “properly identified” and referred for treatment. They should
be screened for “mental health conditions” along with their physical symptoms,
she said.
According to the HHS news release, about 10 percent of all people who have previously come down with COVID-19 have suffered at least one symptom of long COVID. But the HHS advisory found mental health symptoms and conditions linked to long COVID such as anxiety, psychosis, depression, and other mental issues.
“Long COVID can have
devastating effects on the mental health of those who experience it, as well as
their families, due to a number of factors, including chronic illness (both
physical and mental), social isolation, financial insecurity, caregiver
burnout, and grief, according to the advisory issued today,” the release says.
More
Federal Agency
Issues Advisory on Symptoms Linked to ‘Long COVID’ (theepochtimes.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Siemens Energy scraps profit outlook as wind turbine troubles
deepen
June 22, 2023
FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Siemens Energy, which supplies
equipment and services to the power sector, scrapped its 2023 profit outlook
after a review of its wind turbine unit exposed deeper than expected problems
that could cost more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion).
Issues at the company's Siemens Gamesa unit have
been a drag on the parent, and the announcement marks the latest blow to
Siemens Energy's efforts to get these under control following a full takeover
of the business.
Frankfurt-listed Siemens Energy shares were down
12.8% at 1849 GMT after the announcement, which follows the initial discovery
of faulty components at Siemens Gamesa in January that caused a charge of
nearly half a billion euros.
Siemens Energy said that an extended technical
review of Siemens Gamesa's installed turbine fleet and product designs was
launched following that is says was a substantial increase in failure rates of
components.
The company, which was
spun off from Siemens, said the review suggests that it will be significantly
more expensive than initially thought to reach the desired product quality of
certain onshore turbines.
This, it said, would incur costs of more than 1
billion euros.
"We are also reviewing assumptions critical to
the existing business plans given productivity improvements are not
materializing to the extent previously expected," Siemens Energy said.
"In addition, we continue to experience ramp
up challenges in Offshore."
Problems at Siemens Gamesa had already caused
Siemens Energy to tone down its profit outlook last month, expecting its profit
margin before special items at the lower end of its 1%-3% target range for the
fiscal 2023 year.
However, the company, which makes and services gas
turbines and builds large power transmission stations, kept its sales outlook,
which forecasts revenues to grow by 10%-12%.
Siemens Energy
scraps profit outlook as wind turbine troubles deepen (msn.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. This
weekend, a long forgotten, once famous Austrian court composer, as famous as
the baroque greats, who manages to cram 21 individual pieces into just over 16
minutes. Maybe not quite as good as the last three weekends, but you be the
judge?
Johann
Joseph Fux: 'Concentus Musico-Instrumentalis' Op.1 Serenada in C major K.352
Johann Joseph Fux:
'Concentus Musico-Instrumentalis' Op.1 Serenada in C major K.352 - YouTube
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13
minutes.
2
Queens Can't Stop Gukesh!
2 Queens Can't
Stop Gukesh! - YouTube
No weekend maths update this week.
This weekend, the strange case of China’s abandoned EVs. Approx. 10 minutes.
China
is Throwing Away Fields of Electric Cars - Letting them Rot!
China is Throwing
Away Fields of Electric Cars - Letting them Rot! - YouTube
“It was all down, down, down,
gradually--ruin and levelling and disappearance. Then it was all up, up, up,
gradually, as seeds grew to saplings, and saplings to forest trees, and bramble
and fern came creeping in to help.”
Kenneth Grahame. The Wind in the
Willows.
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