Thursday, 29 June 2023

More Rate Hikes? Global Economy Slowing.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1138 -45              Brent Crude 73.62

Spot Gold 1905                   US 2 Year Yield 4.71 -0.03

“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”

John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1920.)

In the stock casinos, more month-end, quarter-end, half year-end, optimism and nervousness. Why do the central banksters junketing in tony Sintra, Portugal, keep talking up more interest rate hikes to come in H2 23?

Asia markets mixed as Fed hints of more rate hikes ahead

UPDATED WED, JUN 28 2023 10:52 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific shares traded mixed Thursday, as investors continue to parse comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who indicated there could be multiple rate hikes ahead.

The Nikkei 225 was up 0.9% while the Topix traded 0.37% higher as Japanese retail sales rose 5.7% year-on-year in May, official data showed.

South Korea’s Kospi inched up 0.4%, while the Kosdaq slipped 0.18% lower. Japan and South Korea are slated to discuss a currency swap deal in what would be their first bilateral finance meeting in seven years, according to Reuters.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.62% in the first hour of trade. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.11% and the Shenzhen Component was higher by 0.13%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.22% higher.

Markets in Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia are closed for the Eid al-Adha holidays.

Overnight in the U.S., major benchmarks were trading near the flatline.

Powell on Wednesday said more restrictive policy is to come as the Fed continues its fight against inflation, warning of the likelihood of interest rate hikes at subsequent meetings. He is slated to speak at a conference in Madrid on Thursday.

Asia markets mixed as Fed hints of more rate hikes ahead (cnbc.com)

Stock futures rise slightly as the market nears the end of quarter and first half: Live updates

UPDATED WED, JUN 28 2023 8:17 PM EDT

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Wednesday as the market approaches the end of the second quarter and the first half of 2023 with solid gains.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 70 points. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.3%.

Micron Technology shares ticked up 2% in extended trading after the chipmaker posted revenue that came in higher than expected for its latest quarter, citing higher industry demand. JPMorgan and Bank of America both gained more than 1% in after-hours trading as the country’s biggest lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test.

The stock market is nearing the end of the first half of 2023 with strong performance. The S&P 500 is up 14% this year. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has climbed nearly 30% — heading toward its best first half since 1983 — as rising optimism around artificial intelligence pushed up a slew of tech names and chipmakers. The blue-chip Dow is the relative underperformer, up just 2% this year. Many on Wall Street are expecting a volatile second half.

“The Fed, the data, and the AI story all having to go right for equities to go higher, since the S&P 500 is already priced for a near-perfect landing, while anything going wrong could lead to a downturn,” Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed near the flatline as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments about the tightening cycle. Speaking at a forum sponsored by the European Central Bank, Powell said more restrictive policy is still to come as the Fed continues to fight inflation. This includes the prospect of interest rate hikes at consecutive meetings, he added.

Investors will monitor more of the Fed chair’s comments Thursday as Powell is slated to speak at a conference in Madrid, where he will have a discussion with Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos. The event will take place at 2:30 a.m. ET.

Traders will also keep an eye on the weekly jobless claims data Thursday morning to gauge the health of the labor market.

For the month of June, the S&P 500 is up 4.7%, on pace for its best monthly performance since January. In the second quarter, the equity benchmark has gained 6.5%, on track for its third positive quarter in a row.  

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Sintra

Sintra (/ˈsɪntrə, ˈsiːntrə/,[1][2][3] Portuguese: [ˈsĩtɾɐ] ( listen)) is a town and municipality in the Greater Lisbon region of Portugal, located on the Portuguese Riviera. The population of the municipality in 2021 was 385,654,[4] in an area of 319.23 square kilometres (123.26 sq mi).[5] Sintra is one of the most urbanized and densely populated municipalities of Portugal. A major tourist destination famed for its picturesqueness, the municipality has several historic palaces, castles, scenic beaches, parks and gardens.

The area includes the Sintra-Cascais Nature Park through which the Sintra Mountains run. The historic center of the Vila de Sintra is famous for its 19th-century Romanticist architecture, historic estates and villas, gardens, and royal palaces and castles, which resulted in the classification of the town as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Sintra's landmarks include the medieval Castle of the Moors, the romanticist Pena National Palace and the Portuguese Renaissance Sintra National Palace.

Sintra is one of the wealthiest municipalities in both Portugal and the Iberian Peninsula as a whole.[6][7][8][9] It is home to one of the largest foreign expat communities along the Portuguese Riviera[10][11][12][13][14] and consistently ranks as one of the best places to live in Portugal.[15][16]

The ECB Forum on Central Banking, an annual event organised by the European Central Bank, is held in Sintra.[17]

Sintra - Wikipedia

China's factory activity seen contracting for third month in June: Reuters poll

BEIJING, June 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a marginally slower pace, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring the need for further policy stimulus to counter weak demand at home and abroad.

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to have edged up to 49.0 in June from 48.8 in May, according to the median forecast of 27 economists in a Reuters poll.

An index reading above 50 indicates expansion activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction.

While economic growth beat expectations in the first quarter, analysts are now downgrading their forecasts for the rest of the year, following May industrial output and retail sales data missing forecasts and indicating that policymakers will need to do more to shore up a shaky post-pandemic recovery.

Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%, adding in a note that its new forecast took account of anticipated stimulus measures.

The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal.

China's cabinet on Friday pledged to "take more effective measures to enhance the momentum of development, optimise the economic structure, and promote the sustained recovery of the economy", and to do so "in a timely manner".

---- The highest reading in the poll was 49.7, still short of breaking into expansion territory, while the lowest reading was 48.0.

The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Friday.

China's factory activity seen contracting for third month in June: Reuters poll | Reuters

Finally, Euroland opts for a digital euro, Fintech future. What could possibly go wrong?

EU proposes payments sector shake-up, legal backing for digital euro

LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The European Union on Wednesday proposed injecting more competition into the payments sector, giving legal backing to a digital euro, and preserving the role of cash as fewer people use coins and notes.

The package of European Commission reforms, which update decade-old rules, seek to prise open a payments market long dominated by banks and U.S. duo Visa and Mastercard that are now being challenged by 'fintechs' offering rival services.

"In practice, this proposal will lead to more innovative financial products and services for users and it will stimulate competition in the financial sector," the Commission said in a statement.

EU states and the European Parliament have the final say on the package, with some changes likely.

The reforms aim to make it harder for banks to stop fintechs from opening an account with them, and give fintechs access to payments infrastructure in the same way as banks.

"We are going to clearly identify the obstacles that the fintechs should never have been encountering," an EU official said.

Electronic payments in the EU has grown from 184.2 trillion euros ($201.7 trillion) in 2017 to 240 trillion euros in 2021, accelerated by COVID-19.

More

EU proposes payments sector shake-up, legal backing for digital euro | Reuters

"We decide on something, leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back."

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. Ex-European Commission President. Scotch connoisseur.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Is it a ‘richcession’? Or a ‘rolling recession’? Or maybe no recession at all?

Published 3:25 AM GMT+1, June 28, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — The warnings have been sounded for more than a year: A recession is going to hit the United States. If not this quarter, then by next quarter. Or the quarter after that. Or maybe next year.

So is a recession still in sight?

The latest signs suggest maybe not. Despite much higher borrowing costs, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive streak of interest rate hikesconsumers keep spending, and employers keep hiring. Gas prices have dropped, and grocery prices have leveled off, giving Americans more spending power.

The economy keeps managing to grow. And so does the belief among some economists that the United States might actually achieve an elusive “soft landing,” in which growth slows but households and businesses spend enough to avoid a full-blown recession.

“The U.S. economy is genuinely displaying signs of resilience,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, a tax and consulting firm. “This is leading many to rightly question whether the long-forecast recession is really inevitable or whether a soft-landing of the economy” is possible.

Analysts point to two trends that may help stave off an economic contraction. Some say the economy is experiencing a “rolling recession,” in which only some industries shrink while the overall economy remains above water.

Others think the U.S. is experiencing what they call a “richcession”: Major job cuts, they note, have been concentrated in higher-paying industries like technology and finance, heavy with professional workers who generally have the financial cushions to withstand layoffs. Job cuts in those fields, as a result, are less likely to sink the overall economy.

Still, threats loom: The Fed is all but certain to keep raising rates, at least once more, and to keep them high for months, thereby continuing to impose heavy borrowing costs on consumers and businesses. That’s why some economists caution that a full-blown recession may still occur.

“The Fed will keep pushing until it fixes the inflation issue,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.

Here’s how it could all play out:

More

Is it a 'richcession'? Or a 'rolling recession'? Or maybe no recession at all? | AP News

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Millions Don’t Regain Senses of Smell and Taste After COVID: Clinicians Share Validated Approaches


Jun 26 2023

Of the 36 million Americans who contracted COVID-19 in 2021, an estimated 800 thousand and 540 thousand did not regain their sense of smell or taste, respectively, after recovering from the infection, according to a recent study published in The Laryngoscope.

The study’s data further suggests that 5.2 million and 4.2 million people experienced only a partial recovery in their taste or smell, post-infection.

 

“Losing your sense of smell or taste isn’t as benign as you may think,” Dr. Neil Bhattacharya, a professor of otolaryngology at Mass Eye and Ear and the senior author of the study, said in a press release. “It can lead to decreased eating for pleasure and, in more extreme cases, it can lead to depression and weight loss.”

 

Sense of smell is intricately connected to emotions and memories, providing individuals with a sense of security that is often taken for granted. It enables the detection of stale food, smoke, and other environmental chemicals. Furthermore, the senses of smell and taste play a crucial role in the enjoyment of food.

 

Although most people regain their sense of smell upon recovery from COVID-19, some may experience persistent symptoms. Notably, even vaccinated individuals have reported persistent symptoms following COVID-19 vaccination.


Loss of Smell and Taste: Long COVID Versus Vaccine Injury

Reports have indicated anosmia (loss of smell) and ageusia (loss of taste) following COVID-19 vaccination. The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) has received over 5,000 cases of anosmia and over 6,000 cases of ageusia (pdf).

There have also been numerous reports of parosmia (distorted sense of smell) and taste disorders after vaccination.

Although the symptoms may appear similar, the underlying mechanisms might differ, according to Dr. Jeffrey Nordella, a family physician.

In long-COVID patients, smell and taste impairment is frequently associated with damage to the cells responsible for detecting smells that occurs during the acute stage of COVID-19.

COVID-19 mRNA vaccines deliver lipid nanoparticles into the arm muscle and bloodstream. These lipid-coated nanoparticles can enter cells more efficiently than the COVID-19 virus. Once inside cells, mRNA molecules instruct the cells to produce spike proteins. The released spike proteins can trigger inflammatory and oxidative stresses in nearby cells and tissues, potentially contributing to long-COVID symptoms and vaccine-related effects.

More

Millions Don’t Regain Senses of Smell and Taste After COVID: Clinicians Share Validated Approaches (theepochtimes.com)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, something different. What could possibly go wrong?

Regulators begin final safety inspection before treated Fukushima wastewater is released into sea

Published 3:20 AM GMT+1, June 28, 2023

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese regulators began a final inspection Wednesday before treated radioactive wastewater is released from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean.

The inspection began a day after plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings installed the last piece of equipment needed for the release — the outlet of the undersea tunnel dug to discharge the wastewater 1 kilometer (a thousand yards) offshore.

TEPCO said the Nuclear Regulation Authority inspectors will examine the equipment related to the treated water discharge and its safety systems during three days of inspections through Friday. The permit for releasing the water could be issued about a week later, and TEPCO could start discharging the water soon after, though an exact date has not been decided.

The plan has faced fierce protests from local fishing groups concerned about safety and reputational damage. The government and TEPCO promised in 2015 not to release the water without consent from the fishing groups, but many in the fishing community say the plan was pushed regardless. Neighboring South Korea, China and some Pacific Island nations have also raised safety concerns.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters Wednesday that the government “abides by its policy of not carrying out a release without the understanding” of fishing groups in Fukushima. He said the government will continue to communicate closely with them and others involved, while ensuring safety and addressing the issue of reputational damage. Fishing groups fear the wastewater release will cause consumers to stop buying seafood from the area.

Government and utility officials say the wastewater, currently stored in about 1,000 tanks at the plant, must be removed to prevent any accidental leaks and to make room for the plant’s decommissioning. They say the treated but still slightly radioactive water will be diluted to levels safer than international standards and will be released gradually into the ocean over decades, making it harmless to people and marine life.

More

Regulators begin final safety inspection before treated Fukushima wastewater is released into sea | AP News

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, ex-president of the European Commission. Scotch connoisseur.

 

 

 

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