Baltic Dry Index. 919 -18 Brent Crude 76.13
Spot Gold 1948 U S 2 Year Yield 4.50 +0.17
Predictably,
the US stock casinos liked the new 4 trillion of new US debt financing to come
over the next two years. Who doesn’t like a new credit card?
More
almost free fiat money for all. Will the EU and UK get the message and turn
loose their electronic computer printing presses too?
With
the fiat dollar set to devalue, why not devalue in lockstep?
If
they do, a race to the fiat currency bottom is about to get underway.
If
that happens, a return to the 1970s on steroids comes next.
Stock
market today: Wall Street leaps, nearly escapes its bear market after strong
jobs report
June
3, 2023
NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rushed higher Friday after a strong report on
the U.S. job market suggested a recession may not be as close
as Wall Street had feared.
The S&P 500 leaped 1.5% for
the latest surge in a rally that’s vaulted it nearly 20% since mid-October.
That put Wall Street’s main measure of health on the edge of entering what’s
called a “bull market” despite a long list of challenges.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
rallied 701 points, or 2.1%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 1.1%.
The indexes got a boost after a
report showed employers unexpectedly accelerated their hiring last month. It’s
the latest signal that the job market remains remarkably solid despite much
higher interest rates, and it offers a hefty pillar of support for an economy
that’s begun to slow.
Areas of the market that do best
when the economy is healthy led a widespread rally, including stocks of
industrial companies, energy producers and banks. Exxon Mobil rose 2.3% as
prices for crude oil climbed on hopes that a resilient economy would burn more
fuel.
Perhaps more importantly for markets, the Labor
Department’s monthly jobs report also showed a slowdown in increases for
workers’ pay even as hiring strengthened.
While that may discourage workers
trying to keep up with prices at the register, investors believe slower wage
gains will mean less upward pressure on inflation across the economy.
That in turn could allow the Federal
Reserve to take it easier on its hikes to interest rates meant
to lower inflation. High rates do that by slowing the economy and hurting
investment prices, and they’ve already caused pain for the banking and
manufacturing industries.
The unemployment rate also rose
by more than expected last month, moving up to 3.7% from a five-decade low.
That implies a bit more slack in the job market and seems to conflict with the
gangbusters hiring numbers, whose data comes from a separate survey.
----“One thing that is striking is that if you compare aggregate payrolls
today to the pre-COVID trend, we still have more than a four million job hole
to fill-in,” he said. “COVID led to strange times, a strange recovery and an
even stranger slowdown.”
Following the report, traders were largely
expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting in two
weeks. If it does, that would be the first time it hasn’t hiked rates in more
than a year.
A pause on rate hikes would offer some breathing
room for an economy that’s already seen manufacturing contract sharply for
months. Higher rates have also hurt many smaller and mid-sized banks, in part
because customers have pulled deposits in search of higher interest at
money-market funds.
Several high-profile bank
failures since March have shaken the market, leading Wall
Street to hunt for other possible weak links. Several under the heaviest
scrutiny rallied following the jobs report. PacWest Bancorp leaped 14.1%, for
example, to trim its loss for the year to 66.6%.
But Fed officials have also
warned recently that a pause on rate hikes in June wouldn’t necessarily mean
the end to hikes.
Traders are increasingly
expecting the Fed to follow up a June pause with a July hike to interest rates,
according to data from CME Group. That helped push Treasury yields higher.
More
Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected
in resilient labor market
The U.S. economy continued to crank out jobs in
May, with nonfarm payrolls surging more than expected despite multiple
headwinds, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Payrolls in the public and private
sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones
estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
The
unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in May against the estimate for 3.5%, even
though the labor force participation rate was unchanged. The jobless rate was
the highest since October 2022, though still near the lowest since 1969.
Average
hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, which was
in line with expectations. On an annual basis, wages increased 4.3%, which was
0.1 percentage point below the estimate. The average workweek fell by 0.1 hour
to 34.3 hours.
Markets reacted positively after the
report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 400 points in early
trading. Treasury yields rose as well as markets digested both the strong jobs
numbers and a debt deal in Congress.
“The U.S. labor
market continues to demonstrate grit amid chaos – from inflation to
high-profile layoffs and rising gas prices,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president
and chief commercial officer of Manpower Group. “With 339,000 job openings,
we’re still rewriting the rule book and the U.S. labor market continues to defy
historical definitions.”
May’s hiring jump
was almost exactly in line with the 12-month average of 341,000 in a job market
that has held up remarkably well in an economy that has been slowing.
Professional and business services led job
creation for the month with a net 64,000 new hires. Government helped boost the
numbers with an addition of 56,000 jobs, while health care contributed 52,000.
Other notable
gainers included leisure and hospitality (48,000), construction (25,000), and
transportation and warehousing (24,000).
Despite the big jobs gain, the unemployment rate
increased due in large part to a sharp decline of 369,000 in self-employment.
That was part of an overall drop of 310,000 counted as employed in the
household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and
generally is considered more volatile than the survey of establishments used
for the headline payrolls number.
“The upshot is that the only genuine sign of
weakness in the report was the decline in average weekly hours worked to 34.3,
from 34.4, which left them at the lowest level since the Covid nadir in April
2020,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital
Economics.
An alternative measure of unemployment that
encompasses discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic
reasons edged higher to 6.7%.
May’s jobs numbers come amid a challenging time for
the economy, with many experts still expecting a recession later this year or
early in 2024.
More
Jobs report
May 2023: Payrolls rose 339,000 (cnbc.com)
But, in a
worrying development, US labour is getting more militant. This either dies over
the weekend or surges out across the whole west coast of the USA.
West Coast ports shut down as union workers ‘no show’
after breakdown in wage negotiations
West Coast ports are shutting down as union workers
“no show” after a breakdown in negotiations with port management.
The Port of Oakland was shut down Friday morning
due to insufficient labor for terminal operations, a stoppage that is expected
to last at least through Saturday. A source close to the situation told CNBC
the port shutdowns are expected to spread across the West Coast as a result of
lack of sufficient labor as workers protest over wage negotiations in contract
talks with port management.
Two of the Oakland port marine terminals — SSA, its
largest, and TraPac — were closed as of the morning shift on Friday, said
Robert Bernardo, spokesman for the Port of Oakland. The majority of imports and
exports are processed through those terminals, he said.
While the actions taken by workers are not a
formal strike, the source told CNBC to expect stoppages at other West Coast
ports as union workers refuse to report for assignments, with operations also
reportedly stopping at the port hub of Los Angeles, including Fenix Marine, the
APL terminal, and Port of Hueneme, which processes automobiles and perishables
— bananas the largest import in that category. The situation remains fluid,
with truck drivers being turned away at Los Angeles sites.
In an ILWU press release,
International President Willie Adams said talks have “not broken down” and
added “we aren’t going to settle for an economic package that doesn’t recognize
the heroic efforts and personal sacrifices of the ILWU workforce that lifted
the shipping industry to record profits.”
The stoppages come at a time when
activity at West Coast ports had picked up again after losing
volume to the East Coast ports due to concerns about the
volatile labor situation.
At the Port of Oakland, total
container volume increased for two consecutive months, with port officials
optimistic about the upswing. It is the eighth-largest port in the country,
importing a wide range of items, from Australian wine and meat, to aluminum
from South Korea, and
clothing, electronics and furniture
from China.
More
West
Coast ports shut after union workers walk off job over wages (cnbc.com)
Finally,
is weaponizing the dollar starting to sink in in America? But can anyone there
do anything about it or is it already to late?
Your Evening
Briefing: Is the Backlash Against the Dollar Finally Here?
2 June 2023 at 22:24 BST
All around the world, a backlash is brewing against the hegemony of the US
dollar. Brazil
and China recently struck a deal to settle trade in their local
currencies, seeking to bypass the greenback. India and Malaysia signed an
accord to ramp up usage of the rupee in cross-border business.
Even US ally France is starting to
complete transactions in yuan. Currency experts are leery of sounding like
the Cassandras who have wrongly predicted the dollar’s imminent demise on any
number of occasions over the past century. And yet, in observing this sudden
wave of agreements aimed at sidestepping the dollar, they detect the sort of
gradual, meaningful action that was typically missing in the past.
For many global leaders, their rationales for
taking these measures are strikingly similar. The greenback, they say, is being weaponized, used to push America’s foreign-policy
priorities—and punish those that oppose them. “Countries have chafed for
decades under US dollar dominance,” said Jonathan Wood, principal for global issues at
consultancy Control Risks. “More aggressive and expansive use of US sanctions
in recent years reinforces this discomfort—and coincides with demands by major
emerging markets for a new distribution of global power.”
----May saw another massive
upward surprise in US payroll gains, with
employers adding 339,000 jobs versus the expected 195,000. The increases were
widespread, with notable upticks in professional and business services,
government and health care. Plus the large April gains were revised even
higher. Still, the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.7% from
a decades-low 3.4% in April. That was at least in part driven by more prime-age
workers entering the labor force.
More
Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Is the Backlash Against the Dollar Finally Here? - Bloomberg
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Macy’s and Costco sound a warning
about the economy
Updated 1:41 PM EDT, Thu June 1, 2023
Macy’s,
Costco and other big chains say shoppers are pulling back at their stores and
changing what they buy. That could be a red flag for the US economy.
Macy’s (M) on
Thursday cut its annual profit and sales forecast after customer demand slowed.
“The
US consumer, particularly at Macy’s, pulled back more than we anticipated,”
Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette said on an earnings call Thursday. Customers
“reallocated” spending to food, essentials and services, he said.
Gennette
said Macy’s would increase its promotions to clear out unsold merchandise.
Same-store
sales at Macy’s sank 8.7% last quarter, while higher-end department store
Bloomingdale’s dropped 3.9%.
--- t’s the latest retailer to highlight shifts in
customer demand.
Costco (COST) finance
chief Richard Galanti said last week that some customers were switching from
pricier steaks and beef for cheaper meats like pork and chicken. This is a
trend that has been common in previous recessions, he said.
Macy’s
and Costco appeal to middle- and higher-income shoppers, and their results show
a pullback among that demographic.
These
shoppers have bought most of the clothing, electronics, furniture and other
goods they want over the past three years during the pandemic.
---- “Macy’s significant earnings guidance reduction
underscores the challenges facing retailers given a softening consumer spending
environment and shifts in budgets toward services,” said David Silverman, a
senior director at Fitch Ratings.
Lower-income
shoppers also have less money to spend on discretionary purchases and are
slowing down.
Dollar
General (DG) said
its core lower-income customers were passing up discretionary products like
home goods and clothing.
The
company slashed its outlook on weak customer demand, sending its stock falling
20% during early trading Thursday.
“The
macroeconomic environment is more challenging than the [company] had previously
anticipated,” Dollar General said in a statement. It’s “having a significant
impact on customers’ spending levels and behaviors.”
More
Macy's and Costco have a warning about the economy |
CNN Business
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Repeated
COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study
Jun 1 2023
Repeated
COVID-19 vaccination weakens the immune system, potentially making people
susceptible to life-threatening conditions such as cancer, according to a new
study.
Multiple doses of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines lead to higher levels of antibodies called IgG4, which can provide a protective effect. But a growing body of evidence indicates that the “abnormally high levels” of the immunoglobulin subclass actually make the immune system more susceptible to the COVID-19 spike protein in the vaccines, researchers said in the paper.
They pointed to experiments performed on mice that found multiple boosters on top of the initial COVID-19 vaccination “significantly decreased” protection against both the Delta and Omicron virus variants and testing that found a spike in IgG4 levels after repeat Pfizer vaccination, suggesting immune exhaustion.
Studies have detected higher
levels of IgG4 in people who died with COVID-19 when compared to those who
recovered and linked the levels with another known determinant of
COVID-19-related mortality, the researchers also noted.
A review of the literature also
showed that vaccines against HIV, malaria, and pertussis also induce the
production of IgG4.
“In sum, COVID-19 epidemiological
studies cited in our work plus the failure of HIV, Malaria, and Pertussis
vaccines constitute irrefutable evidence demonstrating that an increase in IgG4
levels impairs immune responses,” Alberto Rubio Casillas, a researcher with the
biology laboratory at the University of Guadalajara in Mexico and one of the
authors of the new paper, told The Epoch Times via email.
The paper was published by the journal
Vaccines in May.
Pfizer and Moderna officials didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Both companies utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in their vaccines.
Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the technology, said the paper illustrates why he’s been warning about the negative effects of repeated vaccination.
“I warned that more jabs can result in what’s called high zone tolerance, of which the switch to IgG4 is one of the mechanisms. And now we have data that clearly demonstrate that’s occurring in the case of this as well as some other vaccines,” Malone, who wasn’t involved with the study, told The Epoch Times.
“So it’s basically
validating that this rush to administer and re-administer without having solid
data to back those decisions was highly reductive and appears to have resulted
in a cohort of people that are actually more susceptible to the disease.”
More
Repeated COVID-19
Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study (theepochtimes.com)
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate
vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
This
weekend, something
very
different. How not to build a new airport, the wrong sort of airport, in Germany.
What
a Disaster! The Story of Berlin Brandenburg Airport.
What a Disaster! The Story of Berlin Brandenburg Airport. - YouTube
This weekend’s music diversion.
Another forgotten German maestro. Approx. 13 minutes.
Johann
Samuel Endler (1694-1762) - Sinfonia D-Dur, Nr.11
Johann
Samuel Endler (1694-1762) - Sinfonia D-Dur, Nr.11 - YouTube
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14
minutes.
Hikaru,
Magnus and King's Gambit || Mortaaaaal Kombaaaaaat!!!
Hikaru,
Magnus and King's Gambit || Mortaaaaal Kombaaaaaat!!! - YouTube
This weekend’s maths update. Approx. 10 minutes.
Cuneiform
Numbers – Numberphile
Cuneiform
Numbers - Numberphile - YouTube
There came the awful day of reckoning for the bulls and the
optimists and the wishful thinkers and those vast hordes that, dreading the
pain of a small loss at the beginning, were now about to suffer total
amputation – without anaesthetics. A day I shall never forget, October 24 1907.
That was the day I remember most vividly of all the days of my life as a stock
operator. It was the day when my winnings exceeded one million dollars.
Jesse Livermore.
No comments:
Post a Comment