Monday, 5 June 2023

OPEC+. 2 Trillion In New Spending. China Property Bust?

Baltic Dry Index. 919 -18           Brent Crude 77.12

Spot Gold 1946            US 2 Year Yield 4.50  +0.17

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 05/06/23 World 689,905,362

Deaths 6,887,328

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

OPEC+ met and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut oil output again next month, with more “voluntary” cuts to come next year.

With global recession looming for later this year and next, crude oil prices rose slightly, but the stock casinos largely yawned, more impressed that Uncle Scam will not now default this month, not that I think that was ever likely, and instead go on spending like a drunken sailor, although that’s grossly unfair to drunken sailors.

Almost unnoticed in mainstream business media, China’s mainland property sector is in deep trouble again, not that it ever left deep trouble, but for now in the stock casinos, we’re all going to get rich frontrunning Uncle Scam’s two trillion dollar spending spree, plus hyping Artificial Intelligence companies into the next Dot Con Bubble.

Asia markets rise after Biden signs debt ceiling bill; oil surges on OPEC+ cuts

UPDATED SUN, JUN 4 2023 11:09 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets are largely higher after U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law a debt ceiling bill that allowed the U.S. to avert defaulting on its financial obligations over the weekend.

The compromise debt ceiling bill passed the Senate by a 63-36 margin Thursday evening, winning enough support from both parties to overcome the chamber’s 60-vote threshold to avoid a filibuster. On Wednesday, it moved through the House after about 72 hours, passing 314-117.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index saw a 0.26% gain on Monday, extending its rally from the 4% gain recorded in Friday’s session. Mainland China markets bucked the trend, with the Shanghai Composite fell marginally and the Shenzhen Component declined 0.25%.

Oil futures also surged as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kingpin Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut oil production by another million barrels per day.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose further after leading its global peers for the month of May, gaining 1.67%, while the Topix opened 1.4% higher. The next level to watch for investors will be the 32,644 mark which would breach its highest since July 1990.

South Korea Kospi inched up 0.32% and the Kosdaq was up marginally. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.07%, ahead of the country’s central bank rate decision tomorrow.

In the U.S. on Friday, all three major indexes gained over 1%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 2.12% for its best day since January.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07%, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.

Hong Kong’s China mainland property stocks fall 3% at open

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Mainland Properties index (HSMPI) fell 3% at the open and last traded 2.5% lower as markets corrected the rally from speculations that Chinese policymakers will roll out stimulus to boost the industry.

The HSMPI was down nearly 30% year-to-date and fell 20% quarter-to-date. Over a one-year period, the index fell 53.03%, according to Refinitiv data.

Real estate stocks were among the major decliners in the wider Hang Seng index alongside basic materials stocks on Monday morning’s trade.

Industrials stocks were the leading sector for the index, alongside utilities, financials, and technology.

Asia markets rise after Biden signs debt ceiling bill; oil surges on OPEC+ cuts (cnbc.com)

Saudi pledges big oil cuts in July as OPEC+ extends deal into 2024

VIENNA, June 4 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will make a deep cut to its output in July on top of a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 as the group seeks to boost flagging oil prices.

Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years.

"This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told a news conference. "We wanted to ice the cake. We always want to add suspense. We don't want people to try to predict what we do... This market needs stabilisation".

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, pumps around 40% of the world's crude, meaning its policy decisions can have a major impact on oil prices.

A surprise decision to cut supply in April briefly sent international benchmark Brent crude around $9 higher, but prices have since retreated under pressure from concerns about the weakness of the global economy and its impact on demand.

On Friday, Brent ended trade for the week at $76.

Saudi Arabia is the only member of OPEC+ with sufficient spare capacity and storage to be able to easily reduce and increase output.

More

Saudi pledges big oil cuts in July as OPEC+ extends deal into 2024 | Reuters

Up next, trouble at Goldman and Apple? Surely not! Still, better put JP Morgan on standby for Goldie and Elon Musk on standby for Apple just in case.

Apple Customers Say It’s Hard to Get Money Out of Goldman Sachs Savings Accounts

June 3, 2023 Updated: June 3, 2023

Some Apple customers have found it difficult to access their savings from a new account program in partnership with Goldman Sachs.

After the new Apple savings account was launched in April to great fanfare, the system has been facing serious teething problems, according to customers.

The annual yield on an Apple savings account offers a generous 4.15 percent interest rate, dwarfing the current savings account yield of 0.39 percent, according to Bankrate.

The account’s interest rate is about ten times the average yield offered by mainstream banks, making it attractive to new customers and falls well below the Federal Reserve’s borrowing rate of between 5 percent and 5.25 percent.

This allows users to earn a sizeable amount in interest over the course of a year.

Some reports suggest that the launch had already attracted as many as $1 billion in deposits within four days of launch.

Goldman is the primary issuer of Apple’s new credit card, which is the only way a customer can open a savings account with the tech giant.

---- After signing up for the credit card, Apple users can open an account in less than a minute from their iPhones, with no minimum balance requirement.

The accounts have zero deposit fees and offer a maximum balance of $250,000.

Depositors are free to access their money at any time, unlike many normal bank accounts, which limit customers to six major cash withdrawals a year.

New Apple Accounts Face Severe Teething Issues

However, some customers have faced delayed money transfers, while others reported having trouble transferring money from their new Apple accounts, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A few are even reported having trouble accessing their funds or even seeing them vanish during transfers from Apple to another bank.

Nathan Thacker, a resident of Georgia, told The Wall Street Journal he had trouble transferring $1,700 from his Apple account to JPMorgan Chase since May 15.

After contacting Goldman Sachs’ customer service department multiple times, he was told to wait a few days.

The money only arrived in Thacker’s account after The Wall Street Journal contacted the bank about his problem and similar experiences from other customers.

Stories on social media are filled with similar experiences from customers unable to access their Apple savings accounts.

More

Apple Customers Say It’s Hard to Get Money Out of Goldman Sachs Savings Accounts (theepochtimes.com)

Finally, more on so you really, really, really want an electric vehicle.

I love electric vehicles – and was an early adopter. But increasingly I feel duped

Rowan Atkinson  Sat 3 Jun 2023 08.00 BST

Sadly, keeping your old petrol car may be better than buying an EV. There are sound environmental reasons not to jump just yet

Electric motoring is, in theory, a subject about which I should know something. My first university degree was in electrical and electronic engineering, with a subsequent master’s in control systems. Combine this, perhaps surprising, academic pathway with a lifelong passion for the motorcar, and you can see why I was drawn into an early adoption of electric vehicles. I bought my first electric hybrid 18 years ago and my first pure electric car nine years ago and (notwithstanding our poor electric charging infrastructure) have enjoyed my time with both very much. Electric vehicles may be a bit soulless, but they’re wonderful mechanisms: fast, quiet and, until recently, very cheap to run. But increasingly, I feel a little duped. When you start to drill into the facts, electric motoring doesn’t seem to be quite the environmental panacea it is claimed to be.

More

I love electric vehicles – and was an early adopter. But increasingly I feel duped | Rowan Atkinson | The Guardian

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

IMF chief says there’s no significant slowdown in lending and the Fed may need to do more

The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to change course with its rate-hiking cycle.

“We don’t yet see a significant slowdown in lending. There is some, but not on the scale that would lead to the Fed stepping back,” the IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC’s Karen Tso Saturday in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

The Federal Reserve in a May banks report warned that lenders are worried about conditions ahead, as trouble in mid-sized financial institutions in the U.S. caused banks to tighten lending standards for households and businesses.

The Fed’s loan officers added that they expect the issues to continue over the next year due to lowered growth forecasts and concerns over deposit outflows and reduced tolerance for risk.

Georgieva told CNBC: “I cannot stress enough that we are in an exceptionally uncertain environment. Therefore pay attention to trends and be agile, adjusting  should the trends change.”

The IMF’s commentary on the pace of a slowdown in global lending comes after its Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC in April that banks are now situated in a “more precarious situation” that would pose a risk to the international organization’s world growth forecast of 2.8% for this year.

More

Kristalina Georgieva: IMF chief says there's no slowdown in US lending (cnbc.com)

Billionaire investor Cliff Asness talks stocks, recession, Warren Buffett, and commercial real estate in a new interview. Here's the 8 best quotes.

Sat, 3 June 2023 at 7:45 pm BST

Buoyant stocks may have lost touch with economic reality, bond markets are screaming recession, and commercial real estate could be in trouble, Cliff Asness has warned.

The billionaire investor and AQR Capital Management founder is also fearful of a financial crisissees parallels between Warren Buffett and quantitative traders, and expects cheap stocks to outperform in the years ahead.

He made the comments during a recent episode of "Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein."

Here are Asness' 8 best quotes, lightly edited for length and clarity:

-----3. "My biggest concern is stocks and bonds seem to be taking a very, very different view. Bonds are pricing in multiple, severe cuts over the next year to two years. That is a forecast for a recession, and not a mild one. Equities are whistling past the graveyard."

4. "If inflation stays sticky, or it comes down because we enter a non-trivial recession, it's equities that I think are a scary place. They're not priced very consistently with bonds, and we're going to find out who's right in the next year."

5. "I worry about a financial crisis because they're very unpredictable. I don't think anyone wants a financial crisis. You think you'll do well, and something happens that boomerangs, and you don't."

6. "Commercial real estate, and banks that deal in that, may be a more nerve-wracking place — how that shakes out in cities. I'm worried enough to put it on my worry list."

More

Billionaire investor Cliff Asness talks stocks, recession, Warren Buffett, and commercial real estate in a new interview. Here's the 8 best quotes. (yahoo.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Hmm. Now who would benefit from discrediting Hydroxychloroquine?

Study Linking Hydroxychloroquine to Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction

Jun 2 2023

An investigation has found that among the hundreds of COVID-19 research papers that have been withdrawn, a retracted study linking the drug hydroxychloroquine to increased mortality was the most cited paper.

 

With 1,360 citations at the time of data extraction, researchers in the field were still referring to the paper “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis” long after it was retracted.

 

Authors of the analysis involving the University of Wollongong, Linköping University, and Western Sydney Local Health District wrote (pdf) that “most researchers who cite retracted research do not identify that the paper is retracted, even when submitting long after the paper has been withdrawn.”

 

“This has serious implications for the reliability of published research and the academic literature, which need to be addressed,” they said.

 

“Retraction is the final safeguard against academic error and misconduct, and thus a cornerstone of the entire process of knowledge generation.”

 

Scientists Question Findings

Over 100 medical professionals wrote an open letter, raising ten major issues with the paper.

 

These included the fact that there was “no ethics review” and “unusually small reported variances in baseline variables, interventions and outcomes,” as well as “no mention of the countries or hospitals that contributed to the data source and no acknowledgments to their contributions.”

Other concerns were that the average daily doses of hydroxychloroquine were higher than the FDA-recommended amounts, which would present skewed results.

They also found that the data that was reportedly from Australian patients did not seem to match data from the Australian government.

Eventually, the study led the World Health Organization to temporarily suspend the trial of hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19 patients and to the UK regulatory body, MHRA, requesting the temporary pause of recruitment into all hydroxychloroquine trials in the UK.

France also changed its national recommendation of the drug in COVID-19 treatments and halted all trials.

 

Currently, a total of 337 research papers on COVID-19 have been retracted, according to Retraction Watch.

 

Further retractions are expected as the investigation of proceeds.

Study Linking Hydroxychloroquine to Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction (theepochtimes.com) 

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Light-Speed Advances: Graphene Nanoprocessing With a Femtosecond Laser

By  

Researchers at Tohoku University used a femtosecond laser to successfully micro/nanofabricate graphene films, creating multi-point holes without damage and removing contaminants. The technique could replace traditional, more complex methods, offering potential advancements in quantum materials research and biosensor development.

Discovered in 2004, graphene has revolutionized various scientific fields. It possesses remarkable properties like high electron mobility, mechanical strength, and thermal conductivity. Extensive time and effort have been invested in exploring its potential as a next-generation semiconductor material, leading to the development of graphene-based transistors, transparent electrodes, and sensors.

But to render these devices into practical application, it’s crucial to have efficient processing techniques that can structure graphene films at micrometer and nanometer scale. Typically, micro/nanoscale material processing and device manufacturing employ nanolithography and focused ion beam methods. However, these have posed longstanding challenges for laboratory researchers due to their need for large-scale equipment, lengthy manufacturing times, and complex operations.

 

Back in January, Tohoku University researchers created a technique that could micro/nanofabricate silicon nitride thin devices with thicknesses ranging from 5 to 50 nanometers. The method employed a femtosecond laser, which emitted extremely short, rapid pulses of light. It turned out to be capable of quickly and conveniently processing thin materials without a vacuum environment.

By applying this method to an ultra-thin atomic layer of graphene, the same group has now succeeded in performing a multi-point hole drilling without damaging the graphene film. Details of their breakthrough were reported in the journal Nano Letters on May 16, 2023.

“With proper control of the input energy and number of laser shots, we were able to execute precise machining and create holes with diameters ranging from 70 nanometers – much smaller than the laser wavelength of 520 nanometers – to over 1 millimeter,” says Yuuki Uesugi, assistant professor at Tohoku University’s Institute of Multidisciplinary Research for Advanced Materials, and co-author of the paper

More

Light-Speed Advances: Graphene Nanoprocessing With a Femtosecond Laser (scitechdaily.com)

Solar panels - an eco-disaster waiting to happen?

4 June, 2023

While they are being promoted around the world as a crucial weapon in reducing carbon emissions, solar panels only have a lifespan of up to 25 years.

 

Experts say billions of panels will eventually all need to be disposed of and replaced.

 

"The world has installed more than one terawatt of solar capacity. Ordinary solar panels have a capacity of about 400W, so if you count both rooftops and solar farms, there could be as many as 2.5 billion solar panels.," says Dr Rong Deng, an expert in solar panel recycling at the University of New South Wales in Australia.

 

According to the British government, there are tens of millions of solar panels in the UK. But the specialist infrastructure to scrap and recycle them is lacking.

 

Energy experts are calling for urgent government action to prevent a looming global environmental disaster.

 

"It's going to be a waste mountain by 2050, unless we get recycling chains going now," says Ute Collier, deputy director of the International Renewable Energy Agency.

 

"We're producing more and more solar panels - which is great - but how are we going to deal with the waste?" she asks.

 

It is hoped a major step will be taken at the end of June, when the world's first factory dedicated to fully recycling solar panels officially opens in France.

 

ROSI, the specialist solar recycling company which owns the facility, in the Alpine city of Grenoble, hopes eventually to be able to extract and re-use 99% of a unit's components.

 

As well as recycling the glass fronts and aluminium frames, the new factory can recover nearly all of the precious materials contained within the panels, such as silver and copper, which are typically some of the hardest materials to extract.

More

Solar panels - an eco-disaster waiting to happen? - BBC News

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

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