Friday, 23 June 2023

Central Banks, The Last Round? Bonds v Stocks.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1216 +78             Brent Crude 42.68

Spot Gold 1917                   US 2 Year Yield 4.77 +0.09

Common sense is very uncommon.

Horace Greeley.

The stock casinos latest high risk bubble came under intense attack from the massed ranks of central banksters yesterday, a fight according to the central banksters, likely to go on all summer.

With money now leaving the stock casinos for the safety of higher yielding government bonds and a new global recession looming, the stock casinos are cruising towards a new 2008 comeuppance.

Although I think yesterday’s central bank actions is probably the top of this round of interest rate hikes for the G-7 central banks, that’s only because what unfolds next is a global recession and a bloodbath in  commercial and residential real estate.

Not to worry though, we have team Biden, Trudeau, Sunak, Macron, and Scholtz on the case, what could possibly go wrong?


Asia markets fall across the board; Japan inflation eases but stays above BOJ target

UPDATED THU, JUN 22 2023 10:48 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were all lower Friday as investors look to inflation data out of Japan and Singapore, as well as flash estimates from the au Jibun bank on Japan’s manufacturing and services activity.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 tumbled 1.63%, while the Topix also fell 1.5%. Japan’s core inflation rate in May eased slightly to 3.2% year-on-year, lower than April’s 3.4% but still above the BOJ’s 2% target. The May core inflation rate was slightly above the 3.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.71%, with the Kosdaq also seeing a loss of 0.12%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 1.03% lower, after two straight days of losses and following its largest one-day fall in June on Thursday.

Separately, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 1.68% on its open as it comes back from a public holiday, dragged by health-care and tech stocks. Mainland Chinese markets are closed for a public holiday Friday.

Overnight in the U.S., both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak and finished higher, with the Nasdaq up by 0.95% and the S&P 0.37% higher. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly, extending its losing streak to four days.

Asia markets fall across the board; Japan inflation eases but stays above BOJ target (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are flat on Thursday evening as Wall Street heads for losing week: Live updates

UPDATED THU, JUN 22 2023 7:02 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Thursday as Wall Street headed for a losing week.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 inched up by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained about 0.1%. Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 29 points, or 0.08%.

Investors bought up technology stocks during Thursday’s session after a three-day breather from the market rally, pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 0.95% and shares of Apple to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 added 0.37%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.81 points, pressured by shares of Boeing.

All three major averages are set to break multi-week win streaks. The Dow and S&P 500 have lost 1% and 0.6%, respectively, since the start of the week. The Nasdaq is down 0.4%, on pace to snap an eight-week win streak and post its worst weekly stretch since April.

“The markets have been under a bit of pressure since the press conference and news release of the Fed the other week stating that they are not going to increase interest rates at this time, but are likely to increase rates again 1-2 times later this year,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.

These developments have given the market a “breather” as investors “come to terms” with the ongoing outlook for the central bank’s hiking campaign, he added.

---- Nasdaq on pace for its worst week since April

Thursday’s tech turnaround – propelled by the likes of Amazon – came too late to avert the Nasdaq Composite’s decline on the week. The tech-heavy index is now on pace for its worst week since April.

The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.4% for the week through Thursday’s close – a slip that will snap its run of eight positive weeks. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are also down for the week, off 0.6% and 1%, respectively. Those declines would end a 5-week win streak for the S&P 500 and a 3-week run of gains for the Dow.

In the grand scheme of things, the three indexes are still enjoying a strong June. The Nasdaq is up 5.4% for the month, while the S&P 500 has gained 4.8%. The Dow is up more than 3% for the month.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Bank of England surprises with 50-basis-point rate hike to tackle persistent inflation

PUBLISHED THU, JUN 22 2023 7:04 AM EDT

LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its 13th consecutive increase as policymakers grapple with persistently high inflation.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the half-percentage-point increase, which takes the Bank’s base rate to 5%. The move defied market expectations, which had priced in around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike.

Fresh data on Wednesday showed annual U.K. consumer price inflation was 8.7% in May, unchanged from the previous month, cementing market expectations that the MPC would opt for another hike. Economists also upped their expectations for further monetary tightening in the future.

Most worryingly for the central bank, core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — was 7.1% year-on-year in May, up from 6.8% in April and marking its highest rate since March 1992.

Policymakers are walking a tightrope as they attempt to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to quell inflationary pressures without triggering a full-scale mortgage crisis and recession.

Bank of England June decision: 50-basis-point rate hike to tackle persistent inflation (cnbc.com)

Swiss central bank raises rates again, signals may need to do more

June 22, 2023

ZURICH (Reuters) -The Swiss National Bank raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday as the central bank pressed ahead with its campaign to dampen stubborn inflation and left the door open for more tightening.

The increase, in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll, meant Swiss interest rates were now at their highest level since April 2002.

Chairman Thomas Jordan pointed to rising inflationary pressures and the danger of price increases becoming entrenched.

Although inflation has declined compared with a year earlier, there was still more work to be done, Jordan told reporters.

"The marked decline in recent months is very welcome," Jordan said. "This is also the result of our monetary policy which is now significantly more restrictive than one year ago.

"Nevertheless the underlying inflationary pressure has risen further," He added. "We are therefore observing persisting second-round effects in many domestic goods and services."

As a result, Jordan said he could not rule out further increases.

On Thursday the SNB increased its policy rate and the rate it charges on sight deposits to 1.75% from the 1.5% level set in March.

The increase, in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll, meant Swiss interest rates were now at their highest level since April 2002.

Jordan acknowledged that higher interest rates were leading to higher rents, with the knock-on effect of adding to inflation.

Still, he said this would not deter the SNB from hiking again.

More

Swiss central bank raises rates again, signals may need to do more (msn.com)

Norway central bank raises rate to 15-year high, with more to come

June 22, 2023

OSLO (Reuters) - Norway's central bank raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% on Thursday in a bid to curb inflation, more than expected by a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters, and said it aimed for another hike in August.

Of the 32 economists polled in advance, 24 had anticipated an increase of 25 bps on Thursday while eight had bet on an increase of 50 bps.

The central bank predicted the policy rate would rise to 4.25% during the autumn.

"If we do not raise the policy rate, prices and wages could continue to rise rapidly and inflation become entrenched," Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement.

The Norwegian currency, the crown, strengthened to 11.55 against the euro at 0807 GMT from 11.69 just before the announcement.

In May, Norges Bank said it would "most likely" hike again in June, and official data has since shown higher-than-expected growth in consumer prices and a brighter outlook for many Norwegian companies.

"Today's hawkish decision shows that Norges Bank means business and is concerned about inflation becoming entrenched," analysts at Nordea said in a note to clients.

"The decision is justified given that inflation has come in markedly higher than anticipated," Nordea added.

The hike raises the policy rate to its highest level since the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008.

More

Norway central bank raises rate to 15-year high, with more to come (msn.com)

 

Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate to 15% in dramatic U-turn to tackle 40% inflation

PUBLISHED THU, JUN 22 2023 7:17 AM EDT

Turkey’s central bank jacked up the country’s key interest rate Thursday, almost doubling it from 8.5% to 15% as the new economic administration of recently re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a dramatic monetary policy U-turn.

The bank said that there will be further gradual monetary tightening until the inflation picture in the country improves.

The whopping 650-basis-point rate rise is the country’s first since March 2021, but was below analyst expectations of a 1,150-basis-point hike to 20%.

“The Committee decided to begin the monetary tightening process in order to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor inflation expectations, and to control the deterioration in pricing behavior,” the central bank, led by newly-appointed Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, said in a statement.

Some analysts criticized the central bank’s move as not going far enough, however.

“Ouch — disappointing. Not enough,” Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in an note via email. “They needed to front load hikes. Market won’t like that.”

The lira weakened to around 24.1 against the dollar following the news, from 23.54 before the decision was announced — a record low, according to Reuters data.

More

Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate to 15% in dramatic U-turn to fight inflation (cnbc.com)

In other news, was this week a good week to bury bad Biden news?

Distraction? Questions Swirl Over Timing Of Sub Story As Biden Bombshells Hit Target

FRIDAY, JUN 23, 2023 - 02:20 AM

As two IRS whistleblowers prepared to go public with more damning information implicating the Biden administration in a scheme to bury evidence of Hunter Biden's tax crimes - as well as the revelation that Joe Biden was 'in the room' when Hunter shot a threatening message to a Chinese business associate demanding payment, a story which some have called "the biggest political scandal this country has ever seen", another story captivated the nation: the deaths of missing submarine passengers who set off last weekend to see the Titanic, only to lose contact shortly into the trip.

Late Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported that "A top secret military acoustic detection system designed to spot enemy submarines first heard what the U.S. Navy suspected was the Titan submersible implosion hours after the submersible began its voyage," and that "the U.S. system detected what it suspected was the sound of an implosion near the debris site discovered Thursday."

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