Baltic Dry Index. 977 -146 Brent Crude 72.66
Spot Gold 1964 US 2 Year Yield 4.40 -0.06
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 01/06/23 World 689,608,538
Deaths 6,884,924
This is the way
things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will
get more and more successful until it stops being successful.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money
Game. 1968.
To no one’s surprise, the US debt ceiling bill was voted through the US House of Representatives.
The US soap opera, opera buffa, now moves over to the very elderly US Senate where it is expected to pass and reach President Biden for signature into effect at the weekend.
In the stock casinos, no one had bet on any other outcome.
Back in the real global economy though, it
looks to me that the global economy is going into a stall. Can a crash landing
be averted?
Debt ceiling bill
passes in the House, advances to the Senate days ahead of default deadline
WASHINGTON — A bill to raise the debt
limit and cap government spending passed in the House by a wide
margin late Wednesday, sending the bill to the Senate just days before Monday’s
U.S. default deadline.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act passed 314-117,
with support from both Democrats and Republicans.
It was a dramatic conclusion to
weeks of tense
negotiations between the White House and Republican House
Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
That drama now moves to the Democrat-controlled Senate, where
leaders on both sides want to pass it in 48 hours. Late Wednesday night,
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., stood up in a nearly empty Senate
chamber to formally place the bill on the calendar for Thursday.
---- Yet amid the celebration, some Republicans
were left fuming. “The disastrous debt ceiling deal just passed with more
Democrat votes than Republican votes,” said GOP Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia,
an outspoken opponent of the bill. “Tells you everything you need to know,” he
said, calling the bill “shameful” in a tweet late Wednesday.
The fact that
McCarthy’s bill passed with 165 Democratic votes, yet only 149 from
Republicans, came as a surprise to many. Earlier in the day, just 29
Republicans had voted against a measure to begin debate on the bill, a final
procedural step that often serves as a litmus test for the final tally.
More
Debt
ceiling deal: House passes bill, sends to Senate (cnbc.com)
Dow futures inch
lower after House passes debt ceiling bill: Live updates
UPDATED WED, MAY 31 2023 10:59 PM EDT
Stock futures inched lower Wednesday after the U.S.
House advanced the debt ceiling bill in a crucial step to avoid
a U.S. default, advancing it to the Senate just days ahead of the default
deadline.
Futures on the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 31 points, or 0.09%, erasing earlier gains. S&P 500
futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.16%.
The market wrapped the month of
May, marked by a dramatic rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks.
Nordstrom jumped
7% in extended trading after its fiscal first-quarter sales beat
Wall Street’s expectations. Salesforce shares
fell about 6% after the software company bumped up its full-year forecast but reported
higher capital expenses than expected.
The Nasdaq Composite ended
May with a 5.8% gain as enthusiasm around AI continued to boost related stocks.
Chipmaker Nvidia jumped
36% in May, briefly touching a $1 trillion market cap this week. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon all
rose at least 10% during the month.
Outside of tech, gains were hard
to come by, however. The S&P 500 inched
up 0.3% in the month, while the blue-chip Dow fell
almost 3.5%, dragged down by Nike, Walt Disney and Chevron.
“We have been impressed by the
resilience of this market since the March low, absorbing a relentless onslaught
of negative sentiment and headlines,” said Craig Johnson, chief market
technician at Piper Sandler.
Beyond the debt ceiling battle,
investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s June 13-14 policy meeting
as another possible market catalyst. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
said Wednesday that he’s leaning toward skipping a rate hike at the upcoming
gathering. However, he added that Friday’s payrolls report could change his
mind.
A slew of economic data is set
for release Thursday, including weekly jobless claims and the purchasing
managers’ index.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Asia markets
mostly higher as U.S. debt ceiling bill passes House vote
UPDATED WED, MAY 31 2023 11:53 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly higher on Thursday after the bill
to raise the U.S. debt ceiling was passed in the House of Representatives,
advancing it to the Senate just days ahead of the default deadline.
The House passed the bill with
support from both Democrats and Republicans, a dramatic conclusion to weeks of
tense negotiations between the White House and Republican House Speaker Kevin
McCarthy.
Private surveys for factory
activity data for China, Japan, South Korea as well as several Asean
countries will be released later today.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 saw
a 0.3% gain after it retreated from the 31,000 mark on Wednesday, with the
Topix also up by 0.46%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rebounded
and gained 0.26%, although South Korea was more mixed. The Kospi was down
0.42% and the Kosdaq was up 0.58%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rebounded
after
touching bear market territory, with the HSI rising 0.48%. Mainland
Chinese markets were also higher, with the Shanghai Composite higher
by 0.14% and the Shenzhen
Component up by 0.54%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes slipped as investors kept an eye on
the federal debt ceiling debate in Washington in the final trading day of May,
with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.41% and the S&P 500 falling 0.61%. The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest loss, shedding 0.63%.
Asia markets mostly higher as U.S. debt ceiling bill passes House vote (cnbc.com)
In other news, more worrying news on China’s
economy.
China Manufacturing
Slump Heightens Risk of ‘Downward Spiral’
May 31, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- China’s economic
recovery weakened in May, raising fresh fears about the growth outlook and
prompting calls for more central bank action to counter the downturn.
Manufacturing activity contracted at
a worse pace than in April, while services expansion eased, official data
showed Wednesday, suggesting the post-Covid rebound had lost momentum.
Investors sold off everything from Chinese shares and the yuan to copper and
iron ore.
China’s economic recovery from the pandemic has been led by consumer spending on services, such as travel and eating out, while manufacturing has lagged. The latest figures from the purchasing managers surveys underscore that uneven pattern, while also raising questions about the strength of consumption in the economy.
“The sharper contraction in the
manufacturing PMI suggests that the risk of a downward spiral, especially in
the manufacturing sector, is becoming more real,” Lu Ting, chief China
economist at Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., and his colleagues wrote in
a note.
Calls are getting louder for the
central bank to take action, including cutting interest rates or the reserve
requirement ratio for banks. While that may give financial markets a lift, it’s
unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to consumer and business confidence,
which remains subdued. Industrial company profits continue to plunge and global
demand is weak.
More
China
Manufacturing Slump Heightens Risk of ‘Downward Spiral’ (msn.com)
China's markets for obscure commodities point to a
sluggish economy and a weak rebound
Tue, 30 May 2023 at 10:25 pm BST
China's
economic rebound isn't panning out as well as expected, and weak demand is
showing up across obscure corners of its commodities market, according to Bloomberg data.
For example,
glass futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have declined almost 20% in
the past month.
China
accounts for over half of the world's plate glass production, which has
declined over recent months amid low margins, oversupply, and a faltering property
market.
Styrene, a
material used for the plastics in home appliances, has also suffered from a
weak housing market and retail sales of appliances. China has offered the
world's fastest growing styrene market over the last decade.
And pulp
has seen prices decline. The packaging commodity, for which China is the
biggest producer and consumer, saw futures plunge in February after a sharp
recovery in production that domestic demand couldn't match.
Meanwhile,
prices on trucked liquefied natural gas — which covers the last few miles of
consumer delivery for the key fuel — have tumbled to their lowest mark in
nearly two years. Demand has weakened to such an extent that top importers for
seaborne LNG have started to offer to resell shipments overseas, Bloomberg reported.
And corn
starch, too, has faced headwinds. China produces almost 50 million tons of the
commodity per year. Since it's used in baby food, falling demographic numbers
have weighed on corn starch demand and prices.
High
expectations for a robust post-COVID rebound have largely failed to
materialize, and financial markets have been raising red flags in the stock,
currency and metals markets.
More
China's markets
for obscure commodities point to a sluggish economy and a weak rebound
(yahoo.com)
Dimon calls for
Washington-Beijing engagement in first China visit since 2021 controversy
JPMorgan
Chase & Co CEO
Jamie Dimon on Wednesday called for “real engagement” between policymakers in
Washington and Beijing, as Sino-U.S. relations continue to fray.
Speaking at the JPMorgan Global
China Summit in Shanghai — in his first visit to China since his 2021 apology
for joking that JPMorgan would outlast the Chinese Communist Party — Dimon said
that security and trade disputes between the world’s two largest economies over
are “resolvable.”
“You’re not going to fix these
things if you are just sitting across the Pacific yelling at each other, so I’m
hoping we have real engagement,” Dimon said, according to Reuters.
He advocated for a “de-risking” of the economic
ties between the East and West rather than for a full-scale decoupling, as the
Wall Street giant seeks to boost its presence in China.
In November 2021, Dimon
expressed “regret” over remarks that JPMorgan would outlast
China’s ruling party, seeking to limit damage to the bank’s growth ambitions in
the country. The comments that invoked Beijing’s ire came shortly after
JPMorgan won regulatory approval to become the first
foreign company to establish full ownership of a securities
brokerage in China.
Top U.S. and Chinese commerce
officials met last week for “candid
and substantive discussions” surrounding bilateral trade and commercial
relations, in the first cabinet-level exchange between Washington and
Beijing in months.
National security concerns also
underpin a souring of relations between the two superpowers. The U.S.
on Tuesday accused a Chinese fighter jet of engaging in an
“unnecessarily aggressive maneuver” while intercepting a U.S. military
reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace over the South China Sea.
Dimon
calls for Washington-Beijing engagement in first China visit since 2021
controversy (cnbc.com)
Asia's
factories struggle for momentum amid patchy recovery
June
1, 20234:03 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, June 1
(Reuters) - Factories in Asia's largest economies stepped up a gear in May as
supply chain problems eased, business surveys showed on Thursday, but sluggish
global demand remained a major challenge for many of the region's big
exporters.
Purchasing
managers' indexes (PMIs) for China and Japan showed swings in factory activity
to growth in the month, in contrast to weak indicators from South Korea,
Vietnam and Taiwan where declines continued.
The patchy set of
PMIs pointed to an uneven recovery from the pandemic, particularly in China,
the world's second-largest economy, and clouds the outlook for growth in the
region, but still provided some cause for optimism.
"The PMI
surveys suggest that China's economic recovery was still ongoing in May, albeit
at a slower pace. Waning fiscal support weighed on construction activity,"
said Julian Evans-Pritchard, analyst at Capital Economics.
"But
manufacturing output ticked up and the service sector is still seeing decent
gains, suggesting that Q2 GDP growth may not be as bad as many fear."
China's
Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April,
above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction.
The reading
surpassed expectations of 49.5 in a Reuters poll, a stark contrast to a deeper
contraction activity seen in the official PMI released on Wednesday.
"Current
economic growth lacks internal drive and that market entities lack sufficient
confidence, highlighting the importance of expanding and restoring
demand," said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.
But China's
business confidence for the coming 12 months fell to a seven-month low amid
concerns over global economic prospects, the Caixin survey showed.
More
Asia's
factories struggle for momentum amid patchy recovery | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Shock as inflation goes up in Australia in April despite 11 interest rate hikes
May
31, 2023
·
Inflation went up in April by 6.8 per cent
·
This was more than March rise of 6.3 per cent
Inflation has
gone up despite the Reserve Bank hiking interest rates 11 times in a year -
stirring fears of another hike next week.
The official monthly measure for April showed a
reading of 6.8 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent in March, the Australian Bureau
of Statistics revealed on Wednesday.
Economist
Warren Hogan, the managing director of EQ Economics, said the bad news could
see the Reserve Bank raise interest rates again on Tuesday next week.
'Bottom line
is inflation down from peak but not looking like coming down quickly,' he
tweeted.
'Confirms
strong tightening bias. Can't rule out a hike next week.'
This would
mark the 12th hike since May 2022, with rates already surging at the steepest
pace since 1989 - causing monthly, variable rate mortgage repayments to climb
by 56 per cent.
The 11th
increase in a year, this month, took the cash rate to an 11-year high of 3.85
per cent.
ANZ senior
economist Adelaide Timbrell said the Reserve Bank of Australia could now raise
rates again in June or July, followed by more increases because of this
inflation data.
'The risk
around our forecast of a 4.1 per cent cash rate in August has been tilted
toward earlier and/or more action from the RBA,' she said.
Staple food prices are still surging
with bread and cereal prices soaring by 11.4 per cent in a year, as dairy
product prices went up by 14.5 per cent.
Food in
general was 11.7 per cent more expensive compared with a year earlier.
Electricity
bills rose by 15.2 per cent but this covered the period before Treasurer Jim
Chalmers announced $500 in energy bill relief in the May Budget.
The latest
inflation numbers were revealed shortly after Reserve Bank of Australia
Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary hearing in Canberra that inflation
could still stay high.
More
Shock
as inflation goes up in Australia in April despite 11 interest rate hikes
(msn.com)
Treasury yet to ‘wargame’ stagflation scenario,
downplays risks
30 May 2023
The department has not stress tested a stagflation scenario, the
Treasury secretary has told the Senate, despite persistently high inflation and
a looming economic downturn.
Annualised
inflation remains well above the 2–3 per cent target range, closing the March
quarter at 7 per cent.
This was
despite aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA), which has lifted the cash rate by a cumulative 375 bps since
May 2022.
The latest
economic indicators also point to deteriorating economic conditions, with the
unemployment rate increasing beyond market expectations to 3.7 per cent.
Consumer
spending has also eased, with retail sales flat in April and slowing to 4.2 per
cent in annual terms.
“Sticky”
inflation and mounting evidence of a looming economic downturn have rekindled
stagflation speculation.
In his
appearance before the Senate economics legislation committee on Tuesday (30
May), Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy was asked if the department had
formally assessed stagflation risks via a “wargaming” exercise.
But Dr Kennedy
revealed Treasury has not sought to replicate a 1970s-style stagflation crisis
to assess the economy’s subsequent response.
More
Treasury yet to ‘wargame’ stagflation scenario, downplays risks - InvestorDaily
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, what good is a Covid “vaccine” that doesn’t stop you catching Covid? Well the CDC spin is that it prevented any of them going to the hospital or dying.
While that weak spin may or may not be true, we will never know, natural immunity after Omicron infection it could be argued, does exactly the same but without vaccine risks.
All Infected in COVID Outbreak
at CDC Conference Were Vaccinated, Agency Confirms
May 29, 2023 Updated: May 30, 2023
A COVID-19 outbreak unfolded at a conference held by the U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) despite most attendees being
vaccinated.
About 1,800 CDC staffers and others gathered in April in a hotel in
Atlanta, where the CDC is headquartered, for a conference focused on epidemiological
investigations and strategies.
On April 27, the last day of the conference, several people notified
organizers that they had tested positive for COVID-19. The CDC and the Georgia
Department of Public Health worked together to survey attendees to try to
figure out how many people had tested positive.
“The goals were to learn more about transmission that occurred and add
to our understanding as we transition to the next phase of COVID-19
surveillance and response,” the CDC said in a May 26 statement.
Approximately 80 percent of attendees filled out the survey. Among
those, 181 said they tested positive for COVID-19.
Every person who reported testing positive was vaccinated, a CDC
spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email.
Nearly all respondents—99.4 percent—to the survey had received at least
one COVID-19 vaccine dose. And “there were very few unvaccinated attendees in
general,” the spokesperson said.
Officials did not break down the vaccinated between those who had
received a dose of the updated bivalent vaccines and those who had not. They
were also not able to say how many people among those who tested positive work
for the CDC.
“The survey did not ask about place of employment and responses were
anonymous, so we are not able to answer this question,” the CDC spokesperson
said.
About 360 people did not respond to the survey, so the actual outbreak
may have been larger.
Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational
Institute, said on Twitter that the numbers made the conference a
“superspreader event.”
Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Bloomberg School of Public
Health’s Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, added that the outbreak
shows COVID-19 is “still capable of causing big outbreaks and infecting many.”
A Georgia Department of Public Health spokesperson told The Epoch Times
in an email that many people who attended the conference were not residents of
Georgia, and that many used tests at home.
There were no mask or vaccine mandates at the conference, though many
attendees wore masks anyways, according to the CDC.
More
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene-based
breakthrough in hydrogen peroxide production
30
May 2023
New
research led by the University of Bath has shown that surface-modified graphene
could transform the production of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) for industrial use
as a bleaching agent or disinfectant.
The new graphene-based process produces higher
yields with the potential to be more cost-effective and environmentally
friendly than current methods.
Hydrogen
peroxide is a critical component in a wide range of disinfection and chemical
processes. It can release chemical energy to break down pollutants. The market
for electronic grade hydrogen peroxide is estimated to grow to $2.2Bn by 2032.
The
research, published in Electrochemistry Communications, shows that Gii-based
electrodes, developed by Integrated Graphene, can effectively produce four
times the rate of H2O2 with the addition of a microporous polymer
(PIM-1) to aid the catalytic surface process.
This
electricity-based process is both more cost-effective and more environmentally
sustainable than more commonly used methods which regularly require hazardous
chemicals. Over 95% of hydrogen peroxide is currently produced through the
Anthraquinone process, which frequently requires the use of harmful chemicals,
resulting in toxic waste. Whilst the alternative electrolytic process is more
sustainable, it has – until now – been dogged by high energy consumption and
low yields.
The
research shows that combining graphene foam and PIM-1 can transform the
viability of the electrolytic process – opening the door to the process
becoming the leading production method for electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide
in the future.
Dr Marco
Caffio, Integrated Graphene’s Co-Founder and CSO, said “alongside a growing
global demand for hydrogen peroxide, there is a clear requirement by industry
for a more sustainable means of production. Combining our Gii™ technology with
PIM-1 is a giant leap forward in developing an alternative process which is
greener and more effective than current methods.”
Profesor
Frank Marken, Department of Chemistry, University of Bath said “the improved
hydrogen peroxide production is great. Next, we want to go a step further
by combining simultaneous anode and cathode processes, both producing hydrogen
peroxide to achieve even higher efficiency”.
Integrated
Graphene has developed a unique breakthrough process to produce a pure
sponge-like carbon 3D scaffold (Gii™) that has all the desired properties of
graphene yet does not suffer any of its scale-up issues. Gii has potential
applications for multiple industries including biosensors, internet of things
(IOT), energy storage, pressure and gas sensors.
Eureka -
Graphene-based breakthrough in hydrogen peroxide production
(eurekamagazine.co.uk)
NOT even a decade ago, everybody believed. Events did seem under control. Inflation would creep, not gallop; the New Economics would fine-tune the economy; productivity would increase; wars would be fought, but not by us—we were the mediators, understanding but tough; problems would be articulated, and that articulation was half the solution; we would begin upon the solutions. Kennedy rhetoric: let us begin; let the word go forth; let us never negotiate from fear, nor fear to negotiate; let anybody call upon us. Confident, ambitious, optimistic, even naïve—the very best of the American tradition. Hail Columbia, happy land.
Then, one thing and another, the John Philip Sousa
music faded a bit. Could rational men make events behave rationally? Maybe they
couldn’t.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, Supermoney, 1972.
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