Baltic Dry Index. 1055 +15 Brent Crude 73.81
Spot Gold 1959 US 2 Year Yield 4.59 +0.07
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 12/06/23 World 690,155,987
Deaths 6,890,222
Interest rates are the most important prices in the economy,
according to Nobel laureate F.A. Hayek, because they reflect the collective
time preference of individuals to consume either now or later. Accordingly,
interest rates co-ordinate allocation of capital across the economy by
signalling to businesses whether they should invest. Distortions in interest
rates can cause “clusters of errors” in which large swathes of businesses
unwittingly miscalculate at the same time.
Caitlin Long, August
11, 2010
https://www.ft.com/content/2838c142-a560-11df-a5b7-00144feabdc0
This week, it’s all about the Federal Reserve and inflation.
Will the Fed fuel the new stock casinos bull market by leaving interest rates unchanged?
How will China’s and the US inflation numbers turn out?
In the real global economy, not a stock casino
focus for now, it’s more about what damage the interest rate hikes have already
done to global real estate markets, property
companies, mortgages, over leveraged US regional banks and CMBS troubles.
Asia markets mixed ahead of crunch central bank
meetings
UPDATED SUN, JUN 11 2023 11:13 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets are trading mixed as investors return from a strong week and look
forward to major central bank meetings scheduled ahead.
The U.S. Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) takes place on June 13-14, the European Central Bank meets on
Thursday, and the Bank of Japan’s meeting will conclude on Friday.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose
0.68% and continued to hover near 33-year highs, while the Topix was up 0.7%.
South Korea’s markets were all
lower, with the Kospi sliding
0.48% and the Kosdaq saw a smaller loss of 0.13%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index started
the week 0.43% lower, while mainland Chinese markets were more mixed. The Shanghai Composite was
down 0.45%, but the Shenzhen
Component saw a gain of 0.2%. Australia’s markets are closed
for a holiday.
On Wall Street last week, the S&P
500 posted its fourth straight week of gains, and brushed its
highest point since August.
All three major U.S. indexes
ended the week higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.13%
higher, and the Nasdaq
Composite climbing 0.16%.
Asia markets mixed ahead of crunch central bank meetings (cnbc.com)
S&P 500 futures are little changed as
traders look ahead to key inflation data, Fed meeting: Live updates
UPDATED SUN, JUN 11 2023 7:01 PM
EDT
S&P 500 futures were little changed Sunday
night as traders looked ahead to the latest inflation data and the Federal
Reserve policy meeting this week.
S&P 500 futures added 0.14%.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 19 points, or 0.06%, while Nasdaq
100 futures advanced 0.27%.
Investors are coming off a
positive week for markets, with the S&P
500 posting its fourth straight week of gains, and brushing its
highest point since August. On Friday, the broader market index added 0.11%,
closing at 4,298.86. The Dow
industrials rose 43.17 points, or 0.13%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed
0.16%.
Many investors point to the lack
of participation outside of some mega-cap tech stocks as a reason to distrust
the recent stock market rally. However, signs of easing inflation have some
investors hoping the momentum can continue.
“I think [this week] is almost
one of these big comeuppance moments because if the Fed essentially
acknowledges that there’s been progress on inflation, we have a June pause and
maybe even a July pause, I think it’s going to be a green light for some of
those groups to finally get a bid,” Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said Friday on CNBC’s
“Closing Bell.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood that the Fed
will pause rate hikes in its June meeting currently stands at about 70%.
Investors will also be watching
for Tuesday’s consumer price index, as well as monitoring the Federal Open
Market Committee meeting.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other
news.
Andreessen
Horowitz to open its first international office in London
June 12, 2023 3:46
AM GMT+1
June 11 (Reuters)
- U.S. venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, a major cryptocurrency
investor, said on Sunday it will set up its first international office in
London, at a time when U.S. regulators have increased scrutiny of the
cryptocurrency sector.
The
London office, set to open later this year, will work with universities in the
UK and support the development of blockchain technologies and startups, the
company said in a statement, adding that it will be led by one of the firm's
general partners, Sriram Krishnan.
The move by
Andreessen comes at a time when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) has been cracking down on the crypto industry, suing cryptocurrency
exchanges Coinbase (COIN.O) and Binance last week for
allegedly breaching its rules.
"We're
thrilled to open our first international office in a jurisdiction that welcomes
blockchain technology and is committed to creating a predictable business
environment by pursuing regulations that both embrace Web3 and protect
consumers," said Chris Dixon, founder and managing director of
Andreessen's a16z crypto fund, which is setting up the office.
More
Andreessen
Horowitz to open its first international office in London | Reuters
UBS
to impose restrictions on Credit Suisse bankers after takeover complete, FT
says
June 11, 2023 9:33
PM GMT+1
June 11 (Reuters)
- UBS AG (UBSG.S) is set to impose tight
restrictions on Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) bankers, including a ban on new
clients from high-risk countries and on complex financial products, the Financial Times said on Sunday, citing
people with knowledge of the matter.
Bloomberg
News reported on Saturday that the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS will close on Monday.
UBS
has come up with a list of nearly two dozen "red lines" that prohibit
Credit Suisse staff from a range of activities, which include taking on clients
from countries such as Libya, Russia, Sudan and Venezuela and launching new
products without approval from UBS managers, the FT report added.
Ukrainian
politicians and state-owned enterprises will also be blocked to prevent
potential money laundering, the report said.
The Swiss government agreed on Friday to
guarantee up to 9 billion Swiss francs ($9.96 billion) of losses UBS may incur
from the sale of its rival's assets beyond 5 billion francs the lender is due
to cover itself.
Credit
Suisse declined to comment, while UBS did not immediately respond to a Reuters
request for comment.
UBS
to impose restrictions on Credit Suisse bankers after takeover complete, FT
says | Reuters
Discounted CMBS Sell-Offs Reflect a Struggling Commercial
Real Estate Market
June 8, 2023 2:00 PM
MyEListing.com,
an entirely free-to-use commercial real estate (CRE) data, listing, and
research platform, recently published a report that illustrates a struggling commercial mortgage-backed securities
(CMBS) market. Principals, or those who hold CMBS investments, are
under pressure to liquidate these assets at discounted rates.
As a direct result of economic
turbulence and a commercial mortgage market wounded from rising delinquencies
and tighter lending standards, commercial mortgage-backed securities are
falling into a downward spiral.
“A
confluence of factors is responsible for the current sell-off of CMBS,” reads
the report. “The ongoing fallout from global economic crises, persistent
operational disruptions, and shifts in commercial real estate demand are all
driving this trend.”
Supply chain disruptions and the
notably persistent work-from-home trend continue to plague the commercial real
estate market, eroding the viability of keeping commercial property leases on
balance sheets. According to the report’s research, this is especially true for
the retail and office space sectors.
“Shifts
in commercial real estate demand, especially in sectors like retail and office
space, have put additional downward pressure on the value of these securities,”
says the report. “With fewer tenants and lower rental income, the underlying
mortgages that these securities are based on become riskier, thus reducing the
attractiveness of CMBS to investors.”
However, while declining prices
and higher commercial mortgage delinquency rates present challenges for both
CRE investors and CMBS issuers, they also present opportunities for those
looking to buy at a discount and take on the associated risk in anticipation of
market recovery.
“It is more crucial than ever for
both investors and issuers to closely monitor these trends, adjust their strategies
accordingly, and make informed decisions based on a thorough understanding of
the risks and opportunities presented by the CMBS market,” says the report.
Discounted CMBS Sell-Offs Reflect a Struggling Commercial Real Estate Market - Benzinga
In cryptoland news, unsurprisingly, last
week’s SEC lawsuits continue to roil the markets.
Crypto prices stabilize after
plunging on SEC crackdown jitters
Crypto prices are showing signs of stabilizing
Monday after a sharp market sell-off last week sparked by the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission suing Coinbase and
Binance for securities violations.
Over the last 24 hours, some tokens
have continued dropping but at a much slower pace, while some are recovering at
single-digit percentages, signaling that prices are firming at the start of the
new week.
Cardano’s coin, the world’s seventh most valuable cryptocurrency, rose
more than 1% in the last 24 hours while Ripple’s XRP, ranked sixth, is up
almost 1%, according
to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, Binance’s BNB token and Solana’s SOL
are still down 4% over the last day. Bitcoin and ether were relatively flat.
In the past week, four
of the 10 most valuable coins plunged in value by at least 15%.
Cardano’s coin took a massive beating in the last seven days, plunging more
than 28%. Binance’s BNB token slid 25% and Polygon’s MATIC tumbled more than
29% in the same period.
The SEC sued Coinbase and Binance last
week, accusing both of selling unregistered securities, among other charges. On
Tuesday, the U.S. regulator alleged
that Coinbase was operating as an unregistered exchange and broker,
and that 13 assets listed on its platform were considered crypto asset
securities. These assets included Solana’s SOL token, Cardano’s ADA and
Polygon’s MATIC.
On Monday, it also accused
Binance of inflating trading volumes, diverting customer funds and misleading
customers about its controls, among others.
More
Crypto
prices stabilize after plunging on SEC crackdown jitters (cnbc.com)
Crypto tokens plunged this week after Gensler
stepped up SEC crackdown
PUBLISHED FRI, JUN 9 2023 4:08 PM
EDT UPDATED FRI, JUN 9 2023 7:30 PM EDT
SEC Chair Gary
Gensler stepped up his attack on the
crypto industry this week, suing Coinbase and Binance for securities violations and casting
doubt on the future of token trading.
Crypto investors took the hint. Four of the 10
most valuable coins plunged in value by at least 15% this week, according to
CoinMarketCap, a sell-off sparked by the lawsuits and Gensler’s interview with
CNBC on Tuesday, in which he said “we don’t need more digital currency.”
In alleging that
Coinbase was acting as an unregistered broker and exchange, the Securities and
Exchange Commission said at least 13 crypto assets available to the company’s
customers were considered “crypto asset securities.” They include Solana’s SOL token, Cardano’s ADA token, Polygon’s MATIC coin and Protocol
Labs’ Filecoin token (FIL).
Trading app Robinhood followed on Friday by announcing that, starting June
27, it will no longer support trading of coins from Cardano, Polygon and Solana.
The company said “no other coins are affected.” Also on Friday, Crypto.com said it will shut down its U.S. institutional
exchange.
“No other coins are affected and your crypto is
still safe on Robinhood,” the company said in a post.
Cardano’s coin, the seventh-most valuable
cryptocurrency, according to CoinMarketCap, tumbled 20% in the past week.
Solana, ranked ninth, dropped 18%. Polygon, ranked 10th, also slid 18%.
Filecoin, which is further down the list, dropped 19%. Binance’s BNB token,
ranked fourth, fell 16%.
Bitcoin and ethereum,
the two most popular cryptocurrencies, were more stable, each declining less
than 5%.
More
Crypto tokens
plummeted on concern Gensler is expanding SEC crackdown (cnbc.com)
Nigeria
regulator says local Binance operations 'illegal'
June 10, 202312:25 PM GMT+1
LAGOS, June 10 (Reuters) - Nigeria's
markets regulator has ordered the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange
Binance to halt its operations in the country, saying a local unit that courted
Nigerian investors through a website was illegal.
"Binance Nigeria Limited is hereby
directed to immediately stop soliciting Nigerian investors in any form
whatsoever," the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in a
statement dated June 9. It said the company was not registered or regulated,
making it illegal.
Binance could not be immediately
reached for comment.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission this week sued
Binance and Coinbase for allegedly breaching its rules.
Last year, Nigeria's SEC published
a set of regulations for digital assets, signalling Africa's most
populous country was trying to find a middle ground between an outright ban on
crypto assets and their unregulated use.
That was after Nigeria's central bank
in 2021 banned banks and financial institutions from dealing in or facilitating
transactions in digital currencies.
Nigeria's young, tech-savvy population has
eagerly adopted cryptocurrencies, for example using peer-to-peer trading
offered by crypto exchanges to avoid the financial sector ban.
Nigeria regulator says local Binance operations 'illegal' | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Japan's
wholesale inflation eases, goods close to consumers continue to rise
June 12, 20232:29 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - Japan's
wholesale inflation slowed for a fifth consecutive month in May because of
sliding fuel and commodity prices, data showed on Monday, a sign cost-push
pressure that has driven up consumer inflation may be subsiding.
The data underscores
the central bank's view that consumer inflation will slow in coming months as
global commodity prices slide from last year's peak levels.
The Bank of Japan
(BOJ) is expected to maintain ultra-loose policy this week and stick with its
forecast for a moderate economic recovery, as robust corporate and household
spending cushion the blow from slowing overseas demand, sources have told Reuters.
The corporate goods price index (CGPI),
which measures the price companies charge each other for goods and services,
rose 5.1% in May compared with a year earlier, BOJ data showed, slower than the
median market forecast for a 5.5% gain.
The rise came after
a revised 5.9% increase in April and was well off the peak of 10.6% hit in
December last year, as prices of electricity, fuel, nonferrous metals and
chemical goods fell, data showed.
But prices of
beverage and food goods rose 7.9% in May from a year earlier and those of
electric equipment were up 5.5%, the data showed, a sign cost pressures for
sectors close to households such as retailers and restaurants were showing
little signs of abating.
Japan's
core consumer inflation hit 3.4% in April as companies continued to raise
prices, casting doubt on the BOJ's view that inflation will slowly move back
below 2% toward the latter half of the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.
Japan's
wholesale inflation eases, goods close to consumers continue to rise | Reuters
Swiss
National Bank Chairman hints at rate rises to tackle inflation
June 10, 2023
ZURICH (Reuters) -
The Swiss National Bank could raise interest rates to tackle inflation which
remains above target, Chairman Thomas Jordan said in an interview published on
Saturday,
Jordan defended
the central bank's commitment to price stability, which he defined as inflation
below 2% but in positive territory, in the article in Swiss newspaper Corriere
del Ticino.
"Most central
banks have an inflation target of about 2%, the SNB is slightly more
conservative," Jordan said. "The 2% target is not a dogma, nor the
will of a particular interest group.
"Of course if
inflation is higher than the target, monetary policy must be restrictive,"
Jordan told the newspaper.
Swiss annual
inflation dipped to 2.2% in May, government data showed on Monday, but has
remained above the 0-2% range targeted by the SNB since February 2022.
Despite a recent
easing in price rises in Switzerland, the SNB is expected by analysts and the
market to raise interest rates at its meeting on June 22.
Earlier this week
Jordan in a separate public appearance, said he could not rule out tightening
monetary policy to tackle stubborn Swiss inflation.
In the newspaper
interview Jordan said price stability created the best environment for economic
growth, and was important for social stability and fairness.
"When
inflation is above 2%, people with lower incomes especially suffer,"
Jordan told the newspaper. "It is therefore a matter of social
justice."
Swiss National Bank Chairman hints at rate rises to tackle inflation (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19
cases continue gradual increase around nation
By MIREI JINGUJI/
Staff Writer June 10, 2023 at 18:26 JST
COVID-19 cases are continuing to
creep up around the nation, according to health ministry figures for the week
of May 29 through June 4.
On June 9, the ministry released the
number of cases reported at 5,000 select medical institutions nationwide. The
total came to 22,432.
The average number of patients per
medical institution was 4.55, up from the 3.63 average of the previous week.
Motoi Suzuki, director for the
Infectious Disease Surveillance Center of the National Institute of Infectious
Diseases, noted that numbers were not at the level of the eighth wave of
COVID-19 infections from autumn 2022.
However, he cautioned there was “an
increasing trend around the nation” and said “attention should focus on Okinawa
Prefecture, where the figure is approaching that during the epidemic.”
Okinawa Prefecture had the highest figure
of the 47 prefectures with 15.8 patients per medical institution, a 1.53-fold
increase over the previous week.
The number of COVID-19 patients newly
hospitalized between May 29 and June 4 was 4,003, a 1.2-fold increase over the
previous week. There were 61 patients on average over the week with serious
symptoms, up from 58 previously.
The health ministry moved to weekly
announcements of COVID-19 cases instead of daily tallies from May 8.
Downgrading
of COVID-19 did not boost return to office working
By TORU NAKAGAWA/
Senior Staff Writer June 8, 2023 at
17:03 JST
The percentage of employees working
in offices in major cities in Japan didn’t increase in May, when COVID-19 was
downgraded, a survey by private companies found.
The disease was downgraded to a
less-severe category 5, the same level as seasonal influenza, under the
infection diseases prevention law.
“People are gradually returning to
offices, but how and where they work has diversified,” said Makoto Sakuma from
NLI Research Institute. “The rate of people working at an office also varies
depending on the area. Such differences might affect the property market in the
future.”
The NLI Research Institute and
X-Locations Inc., a data analysis company, jointly calculated the percentage of
people working in offices using data on the locations of their mobile phones.
They recently surveyed the flow of
people between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays in major business areas.
They found that in Tokyo in May, the
percentage of people working at an office stood at 66 percent of the average
seen on weekdays in January and February of 2020, when the pandemic had yet to
hit Japan.
The percentage has remained almost
the same as in September 2022, when it was 68 percent.
The figure was 41 percent in May
2020, when the government declared a state of emergency for the first time to
prevent the spread of COVID-19.
After that, the number has fluctuated
depending on the waves of infections.
Experts say even with restrictions on
people's movements and actions being relaxed, it’s not clear how widespread
employees returning to offices will become partly because teleworking is now a
common way of working.
Other cities--Sapporo, Sendai,
Nagoya, Osaka and Fukuoka--saw the same trend as Tokyo, meaning the percentage
of people working in offices in these cities didn’t rise in May.
However, the percentages are several
points higher in these cities than in Tokyo.
Experts believe many people in these
cities simply live closer to their offices. Teleworking is more common for
those who live far from their offices.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
A Chinese startup says its electric-car battery can
charge in 6 minutes — even in extreme cold
Fri, 9 June 2023 at 2:41 pm BST
Chinese
startup Greater Bay Technology says its new "phoenix" cell can charge
from 0% to 80% in six minutes regardless of the outside temperature thanks to
its ability to heat the battery pack, according to a
Bloomberg report.
That's a
massive potential breakthrough, given the wear-and-tear
temperature differences can have on batteries and their charging times. Cold
weather can slow charging and drain battery range — meaning drivers have to
charge up more often, and it takes longer to get to a full charge.
While most EV
manufacturers have some form of battery conditioning built in to aid in
charging times and battery health, that's not always the case.
Insider found
Toyota's newest bZ4X EV, for instance, charged particularly slowly during a
test drive. The company said the slow charging was designed to increase battery
longevity.
Frequent fast charging —
versus hours-long charging at home — can degrade battery life over the long term. Of
course, battery swapping
is more popular in China and hasn't yet caught on in the US. The practice could help solve
battery degradation by moving slow charging outside of the vehicle and letting
a driver replace it with a fresh battery within minutes.
"We all
know the range of EVs is greatly affected in cold regions, making it a terrible
user experience," Greater Bay's cofounder, Huang Xiangdong, said in a press release. "The Phoenix battery not only
addresses the long charging time for EVs, but other pain points. It doesn't
matter if it's a hot day or a cold day, the Phoenix battery's range won't be
affected."
That's one
feather in the cap for mass EV adoption — at least if the battery can make it
from lab testing to the real world.
17 fatalities, 736
crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot
Tesla’s driver-assistance system, known as
Autopilot, has been involved in far more crashes than previously reported
June 10, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
----The crash in
North Carolina’s Halifax County, where a futuristic technology came barreling
down a rural highway with devastating consequences, was one of 736 U.S. crashes
since 2019 involving Teslas in Autopilot mode — far more than previously reported, according to a Washington
Post analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. The
number of such crashes has surged over the past four years, the data shows, reflecting
the hazards associated with increasingly widespread use of Tesla’s futuristic
driver-assistance technology as well as the growing presence of the cars on the
nation’s roadways.
The number
of deaths and serious injuries associated with Autopilot also has grown
significantly, the data shows. When authorities first released a partial
accounting of accidents involving Autopilot in June 2022, they counted only
three deaths definitively linked to the technology. The most recent data
includes at least 17 fatal incidents, 11 of them since last May, and five
serious injuries.
More
Tesla
'Autopilot' crashes and fatalities surge, despite Musk's claims - The
Washington Post
Hayek observed that “clusters of errors” tended to happen after monetary
stimulus sparked an investment boom. When boom turned to bust he urged quick
recognition of losses to free capital trapped in bad investments so markets
could redeploy it to better uses. Any further rounds of monetary stimulus to
cushion the bust would only prolong the inevitable adjustment and distort
economic calculation anew.
Caitlin Long, August 11, 2010
https://www.ft.com/content/2838c142-a560-11df-a5b7-00144feabdc0
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