Baltic Dry Index. 1760 +03 Brent Crude 87.96
Spot Gold 1661 U
S 2 Year Yield 4.22 +0.06
Dow tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down
nearly 9%
UPDATED FRI, SEP 30 2022 5:59 PM
EDT
Stocks fell
in choppy trading Friday as Wall Street closed out a terrible week, month and
quarter that brought the S&P 500 to
a new 2022 low.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
closed below 29,000 for the first time since November 2020. The index fell
500.10 points, or 1.71%, to 28,725.51. The Nasdaq Composite was 1.51% lower,
ending the day at 10,575.62.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was
down 1.51% on Friday, falling to 3,585.62. The index closed out its worst month
since March 2020.
Friday marked the last day of the
month and the third quarter. For September, the Dow tumbled 8.8%, while the
S&P 500 fell 9.3%. The Nasdaq lost 10.5%
---- An inflation report closely watched by the
Federal Reserve released Friday showed that prices
continued to increase at a rapid pace.
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on
Friday underscored
the need to bring down inflation, saying the central bank is
“committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely” on restrictive monetary
policy.
Nike fell
sharply after reporting that sales
increased, but supply chain and inventory issues hampered the bottom line in
its fiscal first quarter. The stock closed down 12.8%.
Quarter to date, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrapped
up their first three-quarter losing streak since 2009, losing 5.3% and 4.1%,
respectively. The Dow dropped 6.7% in the third quarter and saw a
third-straight losing quarter for the first time since 2015.
For the week, the major averages posted sharp
losses. The S&P 500 slid 2.9% for the week. The Dow tumbled 2.9%, and the
Nasdaq fell 2.7%.
Dow
tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down nearly 9% (cnbc.com)
Fed’s preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even
more than expected in August
Inflation in August was stronger than expected
despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring down prices, according to data
Friday that the central bank follows closely.
The personal consumption expenditures price index
excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July.
That was faster than the 0.5% Dow Jones estimate and another indication that
inflation is broadening.
On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 4.9%,
more than the 4.7% estimate and up from 4.7% the previous month.
Including gas and energy, headline PCE increased
0.3% in August, compared with a decline of 0.1% in July. It rose even with a
sharp decline in gas prices that took the cost at the pump well below the
nominal record above $5 a gallon earlier in the summer.
The Fed generally favors core PCE
as the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for
consumer behavior. In the case of either core or headline, the data Friday from the Commerce Department shows
inflation running well above the central bank’s 2% long-run target.
Outside the inflation data, the numbers showed that
income and spending continues to grow.
Personal income rose 0.3% in August, the same as
July and in line with the estimate. Spending rose 0.4% after declining 0.2% the
month before, beating the 0.3% expectation. After-tax income increased just
0.1% after rising 0.5% the previous month, while inflation adjusted spending
rose 0.1%.
The inflation data reflected the shift in spending
from goods back to services, which saw respective gains of 0.3% and 0.6% on the
month. Food prices rose 0.8% while energy prices slid 5.5%. Housing and
utilities prices were up 1% while health care rose 0.6%.
More
PCE
inflation August 2022: Inflation accelerated even more than expected in August
(cnbc.com)
Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors
expect no peace in U.S. stocks until bond gyrations subside
September
30, 2022 10:38 PM GMT+1
NEW YORK, Sept 30
(Reuters) - Investors believe the feedback loop between U.S. stocks and bonds
will likely be a key factor in determining whether the gyrations that have
rocked markets this year continue into the last months of 2022.
With
the third quarter over, both assets have seen painful sell-offs - the S&P
500 (.SPX) is down nearly 25% year-to-date
and the ICE BofA Treasury Index has fallen by around 13%. The twin declines are
the worst since 1938, according to BoFA Global Research.
Yet many investors say bonds have led the dance,
with soaring yields slamming stock valuations as market participants
recalibrated their portfolios to account for stronger-than-expected monetary
tightening from the Fed.
The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio
fell from 20 in April to its current level of 16.1, a move that came alongside
a 140 basis point surge in the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury ,
which moves inversely to prices.
"Interest rates are at
the core of every asset in the universe, and we won’t have a positive repricing
in equities until the uncertainty of where the terminal rate will settle is
clear,” said Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at
Nomura.
----
Many investors believe the wild moves will continue until there is evidence
that the Fed is winning its battle against inflation,
allowing policymakers to eventually end monetary tightening. For now, more
hawkishness is on the menu.
Investors
on Friday afternoon were pricing in a 57% chance that the U.S. central bank
hikes rates by 75 basis point rates at its Nov. 2 meeting, up from a 0% chance
one month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Markets see rates hitting a
peak of 4.5% in July 2023, up from 4% a month ago.
Next
week’s U.S. employment data will give investors a snapshot of whether the Fed’s
rate hikes are starting to dent growth. Investors are also looking to earnings
season, which starts in October, as they gauge to what degree a strong dollar
and supply chain snafus will affect companies’ profits.
For
now, investor sentiment is largely negative, with cash levels among fund
managers near historic highs as many increasingly choose to sit out the market
swings. Retail investors sold a net $2.9 billion of equities in the past week,
the second largest outflow since March 2020, data from JPMorgan showed on
Wednesday.
More
Recession Signals Intensify as
Key Economic Gauge Drops for 6th Straight Month
'Economic
activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy':
Conference Board
By September
26, 2022 Updated: September 26, 2022
The
recessionary drums beat louder in August as a key U.S. economic gauge from the Conference Board dropped for the
sixth consecutive month, with a “major driver” being the Federal Reserve’s
aggressive rate increases.
The
Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is a forward-looking gauge that includes 10
individual indicators, fell by 0.3 percent in August, the Conference
Board said on Sept. 22. The latest reading brings the total six-month drop
to 2.7 percent in the LEI measure, which is designed to predict business cycle
shifts, including recessions.
“The
US LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month, potentially signaling a recession,” Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director for economics at
the Conference Board, said in a statement.
While
the U.S. economy met the common rule-of-thumb definition for a
recession when gross domestic product (GDP) printed negative for two quarters
in a row earlier this year, recessions are formally called by a panel of
economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). They use a
broader definition than the two-quarter rule, relying on a wide range of
indicators, including the labor market, which has remained on relatively solid
footing.
There
are signs, however, that the tight labor market is starting to loosen.
The most
recent U.S. government jobs report showed moderate wage growth and a rise in
the unemployment rate to 3.7 percent in August from 3.5 percent in July. At the
same time, the average workweek dipped to 34.5 hours in August from 34.6 hours
in July.
More
Recession Signals
Intensify as Key Economic Gauge Drops for 6th Straight Month
(theepochtimes.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Inflation in eurozone soars to new record high - and is now
worse than it is in Britain
30 September 2022
Inflation in the eurozone
has soared to a new record high – and is now worse than it is in Britain.
In a report that piles
pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to push ahead with aggressive
interest rate rises, official statistics agency Eurostat said inflation in the
single currency bloc hit 10 per cent in September.
That eclipses the 9.9 per
cent rate seen in the UK and 8.5 per cent in the US, underlining how countries
around the world are in the grip of a cost of living crisis.
Households and businesses have been clobbered by the
escalating price of everything from gas and electricity to fuel and food
in the wake of the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine.
European countries in particular are suffering as Russia cuts off
gas supplies while it wages war.
Within the eurozone, inflation is highest in
Estonia, at 24.2 per cent, and lowest in France, at 6.2 per cent,
thanks to large subsidies on energy bills. In Germany it is at a 70-year
high of 10.9 per cent, while in the Netherlands it is 17.1 per cent.
The figures will pile pressure on the ECB to continue raising rates in
the coming months to bring inflation back under control.
It hiked rates for the first time in over a decade in July, taking them
from minus 0.5 per cent to zero, before increasing them again to 0.75 per cent
in September. Another bumper 0.75 percentage point increase is expected this
month.
More
Inflation
in eurozone soars to new record high - and is now worse than it is in Britain
(msn.com)
Currys raises pay for third time
in 13 months amid staff shortage
30
September, 2022
Currys has raised pay for the third time in 13
months to attract and retain workers amid a labour shortage and rise in the
cost of living.
The electrical goods retailer
said that from 30 October it was increasing rates by 3.5% to a minimum of
£10.35 an hour (£11.43 in London), only a month after a previous rise came into
effect.
The announcement follows a
review by Currys’ cost of living group, set up earlier this year, which is made
up of senior managers from across the business.
Related: M&S raises staff pay for second
time this year to help with living costs
The company joins a string of
other retailers to have raised pay twice in the past year amid a battle for
workers and a rate of inflation that has hit 9.9%, eroding living standards.
The Bank of England governor,
Andrew Bailey, has cautioned against large pay
increases that could lead to
inflation becoming “embedded” in the economy. Unions dismissed his argument as
“a call for a national pay cut”.
More
Currys raises pay
for third time in 13 months amid staff shortage (msn.com)
Average house cost jumped 10 per cent
this year
FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2022 7:25 AM
The average cost of a home jumped 10 per cent in the year to August,
according to the latest figures.
Prices rose to £273,751 in the 12-months to August, Nationwide’s House
Price Index revealed this morning.
It equates to a nearly £50,000 jump in house prices over the past two
years.
As the cost of living crisis weighs on Brits’ savings and earnings,
buyer enquires are falling.
The economic crunch also risks upending the steady house price growth
recorded in recent years.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said: “There are signs
that the housing market is losing some momentum, with surveyors reporting fewer
new buyer enquiries in recent months and the number of mortgage approvals for
house purchases falling below pre-pandemic levels.“
However, the slowdown to date has been modest, and combined with a
shortage of stock on the market, has meant that price growth has remained
firm.”
Average house cost
jumped 10 per cent this year (cityam.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Mandatory COVID-19 isolation
periods scrapped from October 14, emergency response 'finished' says national
cabinet
30 September, 2022
Rules forcing people to isolate for five days if
they test positive to COVID-19 will end from October 14 for everyone, with
support for some workers to be able to continue isolation if needed.
States will determine how to
implement the change, but national cabinet agreed to continue targeted
financial support for casual workers in aged care, disability care, Aboriginal
health care and hospital care.
Support payments for people infected
with COVID-19 who are not in those sectors will also end from October 14, with
payments that continue to be funded equally by the Commonwealth and
individual states or territories.
Scrapping mandatory
isolation marks the end of one of the last remaining pandemic
restrictions.
Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said
he was asked to provide advice on whether isolation periods should be scrapped,
and said he recognised there were low rates of COVID-19 transmission and high
vaccination rates.
"It does not in any way
suggest that the pandemic is finished," he said.
"We will almost certainly see
future peaks of the virus into the future, as we have seen earlier in
this year.
"However, at the moment, we
have very low rates of … cases, hospitalisations, intensive
care admissions, aged-care outbreaks and various other measures that
we have been following very closely."
Professor Kelly's advice to national
cabinet noted that "continued capacity to surge the response if
required" remained a necessary consideration.
More
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Breedon Group, First Graphene and others to develop
graphene-enhanced cement
29 September 2022
UK: Breedon Group,
together with Australia-based First Graphene, Morgan Sindall Construction &
Infrastructure and the University of Manchester, is developing a new reduced-CO2 graphene-enhanced
cement. The consortium is currently formulating the cement using varying doses
of First Graphene’s PureGRAPH graphene-enhanced grinding aid. The project
received a research grant from the UK government earlier in 2022. First
Graphene says that the study involves one of the largest commercial trials of
its kind to date globally. It is simultaneously collaborating on another
similar trial with a Europe-based speciality chemicals producer.
On 29 September 2022,
First Graphene launched its latest range of graphene-enhanced cement grinding
aids and concrete additives. These join recent launches PureGRAPH AM, an
admixture developed in collaboration with South Africa-based Nanoproof/Glade
Chemicals, and HexMortar, a dry mortar mix which will be distributed by New
Zealand-based GtM Action.
First Graphene says that
its cement and concrete segment’s order pipeline totals US$113m in value.
Managing director and CEO Michael Bell said “It is pleasing to see our efforts,
and those of our collaboration partners, coming to fruition at a commercial
scale. One of the primary drivers for the adoption of graphene solutions in
this segment is the reduction of CO2 emissions. We’re seeing
considerable benefits both in the immediate reductions that can be achieved
through the use of graphene-enhanced grinding aids, as well as the potential
reductions in concrete usage because of the enhanced physical properties these
products provide.” Bell concluded “Working with industry-focused partners such
as Nanoproof/Glade Chemicals, GtM Action, Breedon Cement and Fosroc opens the
way to an estimated addressable market of more than 12,000t of PureGRAPH across
the medium to long term.”
This weekend’s music diversion, Handel
again. This time with his finest Organ concerto. The one with the genius
opening and ending. The picture is from the Nymphenburg Palace,
Munich. Approx. 10 minutes.
G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in B flat major Op.4/2 HWV 290, La Divina Armonia - YouTube
Nymphenburg
Palace
Nymphenburg Palace - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.
Magnus:
Arjun Erigaisi is Amazingly Strong
(2) Magnus: Arjun Erigaisi is Amazingly Strong - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 6 minutes.
Infinite
Fractions – Numberphile
(2) Infinite Fractions - Numberphile - YouTube
Those who have an interest in keeping the machinery of war going will stop at nothing to make public opinion subservient to their murderous ends.
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