Saturday 8 October 2022

Special Update 08/10/22 Jobs Sink Stocks, Bonds.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1961 -31   Brent Crude 97.92

Spot Gold 1695       U S 2 Year Yield 4.30 +0.07

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 21/09/22 World 626,106,260

Deaths 6,559,595

I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.

Jesse Livermore.

The US employment report came in slightly better than expected and that was enough to convince the punters in the stock casinos that the US central bank is far from moving away from raising interest rates.

US bond yields surged higher. The inverted yield curve continues to signal recession ahead. Not a good sign for stocks.

In commodities, crude oil also surged ahead of next month’s OPEC crude oil production cuts.

The good news, well sort of, next week we all get to focus on China and President Xi's coronation and promotion up to President for Life, or at least until he tires of the job.

Nasdaq plunges nearly 4% as US stocks sell off after strong jobs report solidifies outlook for another big rate hike

October 7, 2022

US stocks plunged on Friday after a stronger-than-expected September jobs report all but solidified another outsized interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November.

The US economy added 263,000 jobs last month, ahead of consensus expectations for 255,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from its prior month reading of 3.7%. Expectations were for the rate to remain unchanged.

Much of the job gains were in healthcare as well as leisure and hospitality, with average hourly earnings also moving higher in September. The report gave credence to the Fed's continued resistance to calls that policymakers should pivot away from interest rate hikes. The CME Fed Watch Tool put the odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at 82%, a 7% jump from yesterday's expectations.

"Today's job report indicates the job market keeps chugging along - and the Fed has more work to do," CIBC Private Wealth's David Donabedian told Insider. "This is not good news for the Fed which wants to see a slowing in the jobs market to ease wage growth and inflation pressure... The Fed is not done tightening the screws on the economy, creating persistent headwinds for the equity market."

Nasdaq plunges nearly 4% as US stocks sell off after strong jobs report solidifies outlook for another big rate hike (msn.com)

Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs report

UPDATED FRI, OCT 7 2022 5:28 PM EDT

Stocks fell Friday as traders evaluated September’s jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate continuing to decline and sparked an increase in interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, to 29,296.79. The S&P 500 lost 2.8% to 3,639.66. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.8% to 10,652.41, which is less than 1% above its low of the year.

Friday’s losses trimmed the gains for what started out as a big comeback week for stocks. The major averages still ended the week higher but gave back most of the gains from the rally that kicked it off. The Dow rose 2% for the week, while the S&P added 1.5%. The Nasdaq eked out a 0.7% gain.

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slightly below a Dow Jones estimate of 275,000, the government said Friday. However, the unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, down from the 3.7% in the previous month in a sign that the jobs picture continues to strengthen even as the Federal Reserve tries to slow the economy with rate hikes to stem inflation.

---- The falling unemployment rate sparked a jump in rates, in turn weighing on stocks. The 2-year year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.316%. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

Advanced Micro Devices’ stock tumbled after the chipmaker warned its third-quarter revenue would be lower than anticipated. Levi Strauss shares slipped following a cut to the company’s guidance.

“The conclusion many we have spoken with have reached is that not only will the Fed not help markets, but in their dogged pursuit of price stability keep going until something breaks in the capital markets,” said Christopher Harvey, an equity analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. “What appears to be their increasingly singular focus — price stability — will likely help catalyze the dislocation.”

Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs report (cnbc.com)

Markets are starting to act super strange

October 6, 2022

Investors are tightening their neck braces as US stocks soar upwards, plummet back down and then do it all over. Stock market volatility is at its bumpiest level since July.

The whiplash-inducing ride comes as conflicting data paints a cloudy picture about the state of the US economy. Investors have been reading economic reports as tea leaves, searching for signs that the Federal Reserve could soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes to fight inflation, and reacting accordingly.

What’s happening: The S&P 500 just printed its worst performance through the first nine months of any year since 2002. September was particularly rough – with all three major US indexes falling into a bear market.

October brought more vertigo as stocks quickly recovered. The S&P 500 gained 5.7% on Monday and Tuesday, its biggest two-day increase since April 2020. On Wednesday, stocks plunged once more before quickly bouncing back slightly. They ended the day slightly lower.

This week’s strange swings correspond with two new data points that buoyed the possibility of a Fed pivot.

Markets surged on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by just a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday. That’s half the amount analysts had expected.

The move led to speculation that the Fed could jump on the bandwagon and dial back its own rates.

That seems unlikely. “We’re starting to see some things the doves can hang their hat on, but I don’t think it will be enough to stop another 75 basis-point move in November,” wrote Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research in a note Tuesday.

Then, September job vacancy numbers dropped sharply, falling below analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

A weakening labor market puts downward pressure on wages and inflation. So while fewer job openings appear bad at face value, they indicate that the Fed’s tightening regimen is working.

The Fed will see this as “an encouraging development,” wrote analysts at Barclays, but they cautioned that it’s just one piece of data among many. The labor market is still tight with about 1.7 job openings for every unemployed worker in the US.

The hope appeared to be fleeting, anyway. New private employment data on Wednesday by payroll services firm ADP suggested that the labor market isn’t losing any steam. Businesses beat estimates with 208,000 jobs added in September. They added 185,000 jobs in August.

More

Markets are starting to act super strange (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.     

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.


German retail sales, industrial output fall as inflation tightens grip

7 October, 2022

BERLIN (Reuters) - Data on Friday showed inflation's tightening stranglehold on the German economy, with a surge in import prices and falls in industrial output and retail sales adding to signs that Europe's biggest economy is heading for recession.

Import prices for energy were up 162.4% in August compared with the same month in 2021, with prices of natural gas up a whopping 306.3% year-on-year as the fallout from Russia's war on Ukraine continued to upend European energy markets.

Data last month showed German inflation was at its highest in more than a quarter of a century in September, driven primarily by high energy costs.

That is disrupting activity in an industrial sector already grappling with supply chain problems and pushing up costs for retailers, which are struggling to pass them on to cash-strapped shoppers.

Industrial output in August saw a month-on-month drop of 0.8%, the sharpest fall since March, the first full month of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the statistics office said.

Meanwhile, consumers were particularly reluctant to spend on food in August, the office said, with retail food sales down 1.7% on the month and down 3.1% on the year - the lowest in more than five years.

"When looking into their wallets, many consumers will continue to put the brakes on spending," said Alexander Krueger, economist at private bank Hauck Aufhaeuser.

With sky-high energy prices weighing on both consumers and industry, an economic recession seems inevitable, said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

"The only question is how severe such a contraction or recession will be," he said.

The German government expects the economy to shrink 0.4% next year, sources told Reuters on Thursday, citing provisional figures. The government is due to release forecasts on Wednesday.

German retail sales, industrial output fall as inflation tightens grip (msn.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Mouthwashes may suppress SARS-CoV-2

by Hokkaido University  OCTOBER 6, 2022

 

Commercially available mouthwashes contain a number of antibiotic and antiviral components that act against microorganisms in the mouth. One of these, cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC), has been shown by a team of researchers led by Professor Kyoko Hida at Hokkaido University to reduce the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in the mouth, primarily by disrupting the lipid membrane surrounding the virus. While there are other chemicals with similar effects, CPC has the advantage of being tasteless and odorless. Their findings were published in the journal Scientific Reports.

The researchers were interested in studying the effects of CPC in Japanese mouthwashes. Mouthwashes in Japan typically contain a fraction of the CPC compared to previously tested mouthwashes. They tested the effects of CPC on cell cultures that express trans-membrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2), which is required for SARS-CoV-2 entry into the cell.

They found that, within 10 minutes of application, 30–50 µg/mL of CPC inhibited the infectivity and capability for cell entry of SARS-CoV-2. Interestingly, commercially available mouthwashes that contain CPC performed better than CPC alone. They also showed that saliva did not alter the effects of CPC. Most significantly, they tested four variants of SARS-CoV-2—the original, alpha, beta and gamma variants—and showed that the effects of CPC were similar across all strains.

This study shows that low concentrations of CPC in commercial mouthwash suppress the infectivity of four variants of SARS-CoV-2. The authors have already begun assessing the effect on CPC-containing mouthwashes on viral loads in saliva of COVID-19 patients. Future work will also focus on fully understanding the mechanism of effect, as lower concentrations of CPC do not disrupt lipid membranes.

Mouthwashes may suppress SARS-CoV-2 (medicalxpress.com)

 

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Winds that slow down the Earth’s rotation unravel mystery of long-range weather forecasts

4 October, 2022

Faster atmospheric winds extend the length of day on Earth and can trigger long-term changes in weather and climate, scientists have found, in a breakthrough that could improve forecasts. 

Strong winds in the atmosphere are known to slow down the Earth’s 24-hour rotation by around one millisecond a day, as the planet compensates for the extra momentum. 

But a team at the Met Office has found that when the phenomenon occurs, it sets off a wave of atmospheric fluctuations that migrate slowly towards the poles, impacting important air currents, such as the jet stream.

Researchers found that the day slows down around a year before the atmospheric winds reach the jet stream - giving an early warning system of what to expect.

The finding could help forecasters make predictions about cold winters or flooding far earlier than they can currently achieve using traditional methods. 

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “The interesting bit for climate prediction is that these signatures in the atmosphere are very long-lived as they move outwards towards the mid-latitudes on the timescale of about a year, which gives us some long-range predictability.

“If you talk to anyone in this field, they will say the atmosphere only has a short memory and if you want to do a long-term forecast you have to do it using the ocean. 

“But It turns out that the jet stream in the mid-latitudes is affected with a lag of about a year after the length of day first changes in the tropics.

“This suggests there is long-term memory in the atmosphere, and you can use it to give an indication what the jet stream is going to be doing a year ahead.”

More

Winds that slow down the Earth’s rotation unravel mystery of long-range weather forecasts (msn.com)

This weekend’s music diversion Vivaldi again, but what an again! Widely hailed as Vivaldi’s best and most famous andante. Approx. 15 minutes. The andante starts at 5.28 and ends at 10.25.

Vivaldi : Concerto a 2 cori con violino discordato RV 583

Vivaldi : Concerto a 2 cori con violino discordato RV 583 - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 10 minutes.

Hans Niemann's Spectacular Mate in 9

Hans Niemann's Spectacular Mate in 9 - YouTube

This week’s maths update. Approx. 17 minutes.

Ramanujan's infinite root and its crazy cousins

Ramanujan's infinite root and its crazy cousins - YouTube


You cannot always sell out when you wish or when you think it wise. You have to get out when you can; when you have a market that will absorb your entire line. Failure to grasp the opportunity to get out may cost you millions.

Jesse Livermore.

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