Baltic Dry Index. 1961 -31 Brent Crude 97.92
Spot Gold 1695 U S 2 Year Yield 4.30 +0.07
I learned early that
there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as
old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened
before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.
Jesse
Livermore.
The US employment report came in slightly
better than expected and that was enough to convince the punters in the stock
casinos that the US central bank is far from moving away from raising interest
rates.
US bond yields surged higher. The inverted
yield curve continues to signal recession ahead. Not a good sign for stocks.
In commodities, crude oil also surged ahead
of next month’s OPEC crude oil production cuts.
The good news, well sort of, next week
we all get to focus on China and President Xi's coronation and promotion up to
President for Life, or at least until he tires of the job.
Nasdaq plunges nearly 4% as US stocks sell off after strong
jobs report solidifies outlook for another big rate hike
October 7, 2022
US stocks plunged on Friday
after a stronger-than-expected September jobs report all but solidified another
outsized interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November.
The US economy added 263,000 jobs
last month, ahead of consensus expectations for 255,000. The
unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from its prior month reading of 3.7%.
Expectations were for the rate to remain unchanged.
Much
of the job gains were in healthcare as well as leisure and hospitality, with
average hourly earnings also moving higher in September. The report gave
credence to the Fed's continued resistance to calls that policymakers should
pivot away from interest rate hikes. The CME Fed Watch Tool put
the odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at 82%, a 7% jump from yesterday's
expectations.
"Today's job report indicates the job market keeps
chugging along - and the Fed has more work to do," CIBC Private Wealth's
David Donabedian told Insider. "This is not good news for the Fed which
wants to see a slowing in the jobs market to ease wage growth and inflation
pressure... The Fed is not done tightening the screws on the economy, creating
persistent headwinds for the equity market."
Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates
pop after September jobs report
UPDATED FRI, OCT 7 2022 5:28 PM
EDT
Stocks fell
Friday as traders evaluated September’s jobs report, which showed the
unemployment rate continuing to decline and sparked an increase in interest
rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, to 29,296.79. The S&P 500 lost 2.8% to
3,639.66. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.8% to 10,652.41, which is less than 1%
above its low of the year.
Friday’s losses trimmed the gains
for what started out as a big comeback week for stocks. The major averages
still ended the week higher but gave back most of the gains from the rally that
kicked it off. The Dow rose 2% for the week, while the S&P added 1.5%. The
Nasdaq eked out a 0.7% gain.
The
U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slightly below a Dow
Jones estimate of 275,000, the government said Friday. However, the
unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, down from the 3.7% in the previous month in
a sign that the jobs picture continues to strengthen even as the Federal
Reserve tries to slow the economy with rate hikes to stem inflation.
---- The falling unemployment rate sparked a
jump in rates, in turn weighing on stocks. The 2-year year Treasury yield rose
6 basis points to 4.316%. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)
Advanced Micro Devices’ stock tumbled after
the chipmaker warned
its third-quarter revenue would be lower than anticipated. Levi
Strauss shares slipped following a cut to the company’s guidance.
“The conclusion many we have
spoken with have reached is that not only will the Fed not help markets, but in
their dogged pursuit of price stability keep going until something breaks in
the capital markets,” said Christopher Harvey, an equity analyst at Wells Fargo
Securities. “What appears to be their increasingly singular focus — price
stability — will likely help catalyze the dislocation.”
Dow
drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs
report (cnbc.com)
Markets are starting to act super
strange
October 6, 2022
Investors
are tightening their neck braces as US stocks soar upwards, plummet back down
and then do it all over. Stock market volatility is at its bumpiest level since
July.
The whiplash-inducing
ride comes as conflicting data paints a cloudy picture about the state of the
US economy. Investors have been reading economic reports as tea leaves,
searching for signs that the Federal Reserve could soon pivot to a slower pace
of rate hikes to fight inflation, and reacting accordingly.
What’s happening: The S&P 500 just printed its worst performance through the
first nine months of any year since 2002. September was particularly rough –
with all three major US indexes falling into a bear market.
October brought more vertigo as stocks quickly recovered. The S&P
500 gained 5.7% on Monday and Tuesday, its biggest two-day increase since April
2020. On Wednesday, stocks plunged once more before quickly bouncing back
slightly. They ended the day slightly lower.
This week’s strange swings correspond with two new data points that
buoyed the possibility of a Fed pivot.
Markets surged on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised
interest rates by just a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday. That’s half
the amount analysts had expected.
The move led to speculation that the Fed could jump on the bandwagon and
dial back its own rates.
That seems unlikely. “We’re starting to see some things the doves can
hang their hat on, but I don’t think it will be enough to stop another 75
basis-point move in November,” wrote Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research
in a note Tuesday.
Then, September job vacancy numbers dropped sharply, falling below
analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.
A weakening labor market puts downward pressure on wages and inflation.
So while fewer job openings appear bad at face value, they indicate that the
Fed’s tightening regimen is working.
The Fed will see this as “an encouraging development,” wrote analysts at
Barclays, but they cautioned that it’s just one piece of data among many. The
labor market is still tight with about 1.7 job openings for every unemployed
worker in the US.
The hope appeared to be fleeting, anyway. New private employment data on
Wednesday by payroll services firm ADP suggested that the labor market isn’t
losing any steam. Businesses beat estimates with 208,000 jobs added in
September. They added 185,000 jobs in August.
More
Markets are starting to act super strange (msn.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
German retail
sales, industrial output fall as inflation tightens grip
7
October, 2022
BERLIN (Reuters) - Data on
Friday showed inflation's tightening stranglehold on the German economy, with a
surge in import prices and falls in industrial output and retail sales adding
to signs that Europe's biggest economy is heading for recession.
Import prices for energy were up 162.4% in August compared with the same
month in 2021, with prices of natural gas up a whopping 306.3% year-on-year as
the fallout from Russia's war on Ukraine continued to upend European energy
markets.
Data last month showed German inflation was at its highest in more than
a quarter of a century in September, driven primarily by high energy costs.
That is disrupting activity in an industrial sector already grappling
with supply chain problems and pushing up costs for retailers, which are
struggling to pass them on to cash-strapped shoppers.
Industrial output in
August saw a month-on-month drop of 0.8%, the sharpest fall since March, the
first full month of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the statistics office said.
Meanwhile, consumers were particularly reluctant to spend on food in
August, the office said, with retail food sales down 1.7% on the month and down
3.1% on the year - the lowest in more than five years.
"When looking into their wallets, many consumers will continue to
put the brakes on spending," said Alexander Krueger, economist at private
bank Hauck Aufhaeuser.
With sky-high energy prices weighing on both consumers and industry, an
economic recession seems inevitable, said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.
"The only question is how severe such a contraction or recession
will be," he said.
The German government expects the economy to shrink 0.4% next year,
sources told Reuters on Thursday, citing provisional figures. The government is
due to release forecasts on Wednesday.
German retail
sales, industrial output fall as inflation tightens grip (msn.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Mouthwashes may suppress SARS-CoV-2
by Hokkaido University OCTOBER
6, 2022
Commercially
available mouthwashes contain a number of antibiotic and antiviral components
that act against microorganisms in the mouth. One of these, cetylpyridinium
chloride (CPC), has been shown by a team of researchers led by Professor Kyoko
Hida at Hokkaido University to reduce the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in the mouth, primarily by disrupting the lipid membrane surrounding
the virus. While there are other chemicals with similar effects, CPC has the
advantage of being tasteless and odorless. Their findings were published in the
journal Scientific Reports.
The
researchers were interested in studying the effects of CPC in Japanese
mouthwashes. Mouthwashes in Japan typically contain a fraction of the CPC
compared to previously tested mouthwashes. They tested the effects of CPC
on cell
cultures that express
trans-membrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2), which is required for SARS-CoV-2
entry into the cell.
They
found that, within 10 minutes of application, 30–50 µg/mL of CPC inhibited the
infectivity and capability for cell entry of SARS-CoV-2. Interestingly,
commercially available mouthwashes that contain CPC performed better than CPC
alone. They also showed that saliva did not alter the effects of CPC. Most
significantly, they tested four variants of SARS-CoV-2—the original, alpha,
beta and gamma variants—and showed that the effects of CPC were similar across
all strains.
This
study shows that low concentrations of CPC in commercial mouthwash suppress the
infectivity of four variants of SARS-CoV-2. The authors have already begun
assessing the effect on CPC-containing mouthwashes on viral loads in saliva of
COVID-19 patients. Future work will also focus on fully understanding the
mechanism of effect, as lower concentrations of CPC do not disrupt lipid
membranes.
Mouthwashes may suppress SARS-CoV-2
(medicalxpress.com)
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Winds that slow down the Earth’s rotation unravel mystery of
long-range weather forecasts
4 October, 2022
Faster atmospheric winds extend the length of
day on Earth and can trigger long-term changes in weather and climate,
scientists have found, in a breakthrough that could improve forecasts.
Strong winds in the atmosphere are known to
slow down the Earth’s 24-hour rotation by around one millisecond a day, as the
planet compensates for the extra momentum.
But a team at the Met Office has found that
when the phenomenon occurs, it sets off a wave of atmospheric fluctuations that
migrate slowly towards the poles, impacting important air currents, such as the
jet stream.
Researchers found that the day slows down
around a year before the atmospheric winds reach the jet stream - giving an
early warning system of what to expect.
The finding could help forecasters make
predictions about cold winters or flooding far earlier than they can currently
achieve using traditional methods.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range
prediction at the Met Office, said: “The interesting bit for climate
prediction is that these signatures
in the atmosphere are very long-lived as they move outwards towards the
mid-latitudes on the timescale of about a year, which gives us some long-range
predictability.
“If you talk to anyone in
this field, they will say the atmosphere only has a short memory and if you
want to do a long-term forecast you have to do it using the ocean.
“But It turns out that the jet stream in the mid-latitudes is
affected with a lag of about a year after the length of day first changes in
the tropics.
“This
suggests there is long-term memory in the atmosphere, and you can use it to
give an indication what the jet stream is going to be doing a year ahead.”
More
Winds that slow
down the Earth’s rotation unravel mystery of long-range weather forecasts
(msn.com)
This weekend’s music diversion Vivaldi
again, but what an again! Widely hailed as Vivaldi’s best and most famous andante. Approx.
15 minutes.
The andante starts at 5.28 and ends at 10.25.
Vivaldi : Concerto a 2
cori con violino discordato RV 583
Vivaldi : Concerto a 2 cori con violino discordato RV 583 - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 10 minutes.
Hans
Niemann's Spectacular Mate in 9
Hans Niemann's Spectacular Mate in 9 - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 17 minutes.
Ramanujan's
infinite root and its crazy cousins
Ramanujan's
infinite root and its crazy cousins - YouTube
You
cannot always sell out when you wish or when you think it wise. You have to get
out when you can; when you have a market that will absorb your entire line.
Failure to grasp the opportunity to get out may cost you millions.
Jesse Livermore.
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