Baltic Dry Index. 1818 -55 Brent Crude 94.67
Spot Gold 1668 US 2 Year Yield 4.47 +0.19
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 14/10/22 World 628,929,447
Deaths 6,568,233
The Battle of Old Byland (also known as the Battle of Byland Moor and Battle of Byland Abbey) was a significant encounter between Scots and English troops in Yorkshire in October 1322, forming part of the Wars of Scottish Independence. It was a victory for the Scots, the most significant since Bannockburn, though on a far smaller scale.
Date: 14 October 1322 Result: Scottish victory. England forced to recognise independent Scotland. England’s world turned upside down.
In the stock casinos, more mistaken hopium exit rally. I think stock buyers here are making a giant misreading of current conditions and our new era of rising interest rates plus soaring inflation.
Look away from that rising oil price and US yield curve now.
What comes next is a giant debt and currency crisis, followed in all likelihood by massive social unrest, populist socialism making things even worse, and a very high probability that the Ukraine proxy war on Russia expands into a much wider European war of mass destruction.
Hong Kong, Japan
stocks up more than 3%, Asia markets gain after Wall Street’s rally
UPDATED FRI, OCT 14 2022 12:42 AM
EDT
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific jumped on Friday, taking the lead from Wall Street overnight
as investors shook off a strong inflation report.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan was 3.46% higher, while the Topix gained 2.69%. Japan’s yen plunged to
its lowest levels against the U.S. dollar since 1990 overnight before paring
losses, and is
still trading at 147-levels.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong gained 3.37%, with the Hang Seng Tech index gaining 3.94%. In
mainland China, the Shanghai
Composite was up 1.57% and the Shenzhen Component rose
2.12%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained
1.91%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced
2.53% and the Kosdaq climbed 4.28%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan was 2.69% higher.
Singapore’s GDP grew 4.4% in the
third quarter and is expected to further tighten its monetary policy.
In the U.S., inflation data showed consumer
prices increased more than expected in September, with CPI
rising 0.4% from August, and 8.2% from September last year. Core inflation
accelerated even faster in September.
Stocks had a volatile session but ultimately
rebounded to close higher, with each major index gaining more than
2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,500 points from its lows to the
highest level on Thursday in the U.S.
“Equity investors seemingly
decided that a stronger U.S. inflation [report] today still doesn’t negate
expectations of a sharp declines in prices ahead,” Rodrigo Catril, currency
strategist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note Friday. He added that
the rally could have been a result of short-covering.
Asia markets: Stocks climb after Wall Street rallies, Singapore GDP (cnbc.com)
But….
World set for first
'significant destruction' of wealth since 2008 financial crisis, says Allianz
In
real terms, households could lose a tenth of their wealth
Publishing
date: Oct 12, 2022
Global financial assets are set to fall by more than two per cent this year in the “first significant destruction” of wealth since the 2008 financial crisis, a new report by financial services giant Allianz SE said.
In real terms, households could lose a tenth of their wealth, according to Allianz’s 2022 global wealth report that studies the assets and debt of households in almost 60 countries.
Unlike the
financial crisis, which was followed by a fairly swift rebound, the recovery
this time, at least in the mid-term, looks “rather bleak,” Allianz said.
It expects average
nominal growth of financial assets to remain at 4.6 per cent until 2025, less
than half the 10.4-per-cent growth during the past three years.
“2022 marks a
turning point. The war in Ukraine choked the recovery post COVID-19 and turned
the world upside down: Inflation is rampant, energy and food are scarce, and
monetary tightening squeezes economies and markets. Households’ wealth will
feel the pinch,” the report said.
In retrospect, 2021
is looking like the “last hurrah” for global wealth, with its bull stock market
powered by monetary policy, Allianz said.
During the three
years ending in 2021, global financial assets grew by US$58 trillion to reach
US$225 trillion, which Allianz said is akin to adding two eurozones to the
global financial pile.
North America’s
wealth growth of 12.5 per cent led the way, followed by Eastern Europe (12.2
per cent) and Japan (11.3 per cent). The stock-market boom contributed about
two-thirds of this growth.
However, debt also
grew during these heady years. At the end of 2021, global household debt was
about US$50 trillion. The 7.6 per cent increase from 2020 is the biggest spike
since 2006.
Allianz
said the geographical allocation of debt has also changed since 2008, with the
share declining in advanced markets and increasing in emerging markets.
Excluding Japan, Asia’s share of global debt has doubled over the past decade
to 27.6 per cent.
“The sharp increase
in debt at the onset of a global recession is worrying,” Allianz said.
Household debt in
emerging markets over the past decade has ballooned at five times the speed of
advanced economies.
Overall debt levels
still appear manageable, but the report said “given the strong structural
headwinds these markets are facing, there is a real threat of a debt crisis.”
World
faces first 'significant' wealth destruction since 2008: Allianz | Financial
Post
Billionaire investor
Ray Dalio warns the US faces a 'perfect storm' of problems - and predicts more
pain for markets and the economy
October 12, 2022
Ray Dalio has warned
the US faces a rare combination of challenges, and has predicted the Federal
Reserve's inflation battle will cause further pain for markets and the economy.
The billionaire investor
flagged the vast amounts of debt and cash in the US economy, raging political
conflicts between Democrats and Republicans, and Russia's ongoing invasion of
Ukraine as key concerns.
"Those three things are
the perfect storm," he said at the Greenwich Economic Forum on Tuesday.
Dalio complained that
"ridiculously stupid" interest rates and a flood of cheap money have
inflated US asset prices and overstimulated the economy in recent years. He
cautioned the comedown would be deeply unpleasant.
"The Fed and the
government together gave an enormous amount of debt and credit, created a giant
lurch forward, and created a bubble," he said.
"They
will raise interest rates to the point that there's enough economic pain and
financial market pain to deal with that," he said. "They're putting
on the brakes, so we're going to create a giant lurch backward."
Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, recently stepped down as the hedge
fund's co-chief investor, and now serves as a mentor to its bosses. He
explained that inflation only falls when people lose buying power and start
spending less, which requires rates to increase enough to reduce demand for
credit in the private sector.
The
investor predicted yearly inflation between 4% and 5% in the medium term, and
suggested rates would have to increase from about 3% today to over 4.5% in
response.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
We're Heading for a
Stagflationary Crisis Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen
Opinion by
Nouriel Roubini October 13, 2022
Inflation is back, and it is rising sharply,
especially over the past year, owing to a mix of both demand and supply
factors. This rise in inflation may not be a short-term phenomenon: the Great Moderation of the past
three decades may be over, and we may be entering a new era of Great
Stagflationary Instability.
Unless you are middle-aged and gray-haired, you
probably hadn’t heard about the term stagflation until very recently. You may have barely
heard about inflation. For a long time, until 2021, inflation—the increase in
prices year to year—was below the advanced economies’ central banks’ target of
2%. Usually inflation is associated with high economic growth. When aggregate
demand for goods, services, and labor is strong, coupled with positive animal
spirits, optimism about the future, and possibly loose monetary and fiscal
policies, you get stronger than potential economic growth and higher than
target inflation. Firms are able to set higher prices because demand outstrips
supply, and workers receive higher wages given a low unemployment rate. In
recessions, on the other hand, you have low aggregate demand below the
potential supply of goods, which leads to a slack in labor and goods markets,
with ensuing low inflation or even deflation: prices go down as consumers’
spending declines. Stagflation is a term that refers to high inflation that
happens at the same time as stagnation of growth or outright recession.
But sometimes the shocks hitting the economy,
rather than coming from changing demand, can come from the supply side: an
oil-price shock, say, or a rise in food or other commodity prices. When that
happens, energy and production costs rise, contributing to lower growth in
countries that import that fuel or food. As a result, you can get a slowdown of
growth, or even a recession, while inflation remains high. If the response to
this negative supply shock is loose monetary and fiscal policy—banks setting
low interest rates to encourage borrowing—to prevent the slowdown in growth,
you feed the inflation flames by stimulating rather than cooling demand for
goods and labor. Then you end up with persistent stag-flation: a recession with
high inflation.
In the 1970s we had
a decade of stagflation as two negative oil shocks and the wrong
policy response led to inflation and recession. The first shock was triggered
by the oil embargo against the U.S. and the West following the 1973 October War
between Israel and the Arab states. The second shock was triggered by the 1979
Islamic revolution in Iran. In both cases a spike in oil prices caused a spike
in inflation and a recession in the oil-importing economies of the West. The
inflation was fed by the policy response to the shock because central banks did
not rapidly tighten and impose strong monetary and fiscal policy to contain the
inflation. So we ended up with double-digit inflation and a severe recession
that doomed the presidencies of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. It took a painful
double-dip recession in 1980 and again in 1981–1982 to break the back of
inflation when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised the interest rates to
double-digit levels.
Coming after the stagflation of the
1970s and early 1980s, the Great Moderation was characterized by low inflation
in advanced economies; relatively stable and robust economic growth, with short
and shallow recessions; low and falling bond yields (and thus positive returns
on bonds), owing to the secular fall in inflation; and sharply rising values of
risky assets such as U.S. and global equities.
This extended period of low inflation
is usually explained by central banks’ move to credible inflation-targeting
policies after the loose monetary policies of the 1970s, and governments’
adherence to relatively conservative fiscal policies (with meaningful stimulus coming
only during recessions). But more important than demand-side policies were the
many positive supply shocks, which increased potential growth and reduced
production costs, thus keeping inflation in check.
More, Much, much more.
We're Heading for a Stagflationary Crisis Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen (msn.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.
Viral transmission not tested in Pfizer trials
(4) Viral
transmission not tested in Pfizer trials - YouTube
Paxlovid
may interact with common heart drugs, including some statins, study warns
OCT. 12, 2022 / 6:30 PM
Oct. 12 (UPI) -- People taking common medications for heart disease, including some
statins, may be risking dangerous interactions if they use Paxlovid to treat
viral symptoms arising from a COVID-19 infection.
So warns
a review paper published Wednesday in Journal of the
American College of Cardiology.
In
December 2021, the Food and Drug Administration granted
emergency use authorization for Paxlovid, a five-day oral antiviral medication,
composed of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir, to treat symptomatic, non-hospitalized
adults with mild to moderate COVID-19 infection who are at high risk of ending
up with severe disease.
Dr. Sarju
Ganatra, the paper's senior author, told UPI that the overarching aim of the
paper is to heighten awareness, not to deter clinicians from prescribing
"a very useful drug" for high-risk patients.
Specifically, the researchers
highlighted five of the most important cardiovascular drug interactions with
Paxlovid of which to be aware: antiarrhythmic agents; antiplatelet agents and
anticoagulants; certain statins; ranolazine, used to treat chronic stable
angina, and immunosuppressive agents prescribed for heart transplant patients.
With
respect to statins, the scientists warned in a news release that simvastatin
and lovastatin should be halted before taking Paxlovid, since the combination
can lead to increased plasma levels and subsequent muscle weakness, called
myopathy, and rhabdomyolysis, a condition in which the breakdown of muscle
tissue releases a damaging protein into the bloodstream.
They
said it would be reasonable to reduce the dose of atorvastatin and rosuvastatin
when they are administered with Paxlovid -- and that the other statins are
considered safe when given alongside the antiviral drug.
More
Paxlovid may
interact with common heart drugs, including some statins, study warns - UPI.com
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Record energy haul: Offshore prototype operates over
capacity for 24 hrs
Loz Blain October 11, 2022
A prototype
wind turbine has recorded an extraordinary single-day renewable energy
production total, bringing in a massive 359 megawatt-hours in a 24-hour time
period. To get there, it had to operate over its rated capacity, essentially
all day long.
The Siemens
Gamesa SG 14-222 DD is one of the world's biggest wind turbines, equalling the
14-MW nominal capacity of GE's
biggest Haliade-X turbines, and only
just trailing behind the giant 15-MW
Vestas rigs and the world's outright offshore
champion, the monstrous
MingYang 16 MW.
Slated for serial production
in 2024, the SG 14-222 DD uses three colossal 108-meter (354-ft) blades,
creating a 39,000-sq-m (420,000-sq-ft) swept circle. And while it's nominally
rated at a 14 MW capacity, it offers a "power boost" function that
can take energy production up to 15 MW.
This power boost
function, according to Siemens Gamesa Senior Product Manager Peter Esmann, monitors site-specific conditions and stays active
about 98% of the time, only shutting down in storm-force winds or excessive
turbulence, at which point the turbine's capacity drops back to 14 MW. While
it's designed for offshore deployment, this prototype was built on land, at the
end of 2021 in Østerild, Denmark, and that's where it's achieved its production
record.
The
reported daily total is just 1 MWh short of the theoretical maximum 360 MWh
this turbine would harvest if it ran at its peak capacity for 24 hours
straight. So it must've been an absolutely perfect day. The 359 MWh it managed
would supply the daily energy used by 12,414 average US homes.
Record energy
haul: Offshore prototype operates over capacity for 24 hrs (newatlas.com)
Another weekend and another weekend
closer to the start of the northern hemisphere winter, stagflation turning into
the next recession, the west’s proxy war on Russia expanding, [China next?] and a currency/debt crisis. Have a great
weekend everyone. After all, we’ve got team Biden, Trudeau, Truss, Macron in
charge, what could possibly go wrong, as King Edward II said.
The Declaration
of Arbroath (Latin: Declaratio
Arbroathis; Scots: Declaration o Aiberbrothock; Scottish
Gaelic: Tiomnadh Bhruis) is the name usually given to a letter,
dated 6 April 1320 at Arbroath, written by Scottish barons and
addressed to Pope John XXII.[1] It constituted King Robert I's response to his excommunication for disobeying the pope's demand in
1317 for a truce in the First War of Scottish Independence.[2] The letter asserted the antiquity
of the independence of the Kingdom of Scotland, denouncing English attempts to
subjugate it.
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