Baltic Dry Index. 1760 +03 Brent Crude 87.29
Spot Gold 1663 US 2 Year Yield 4.22 +0.06
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 03/10/22 World 623,474,912
Deaths 6,550,694
“Under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the
protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth... The abandonment of
the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking
system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit... In the absence of the
gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through
inflation”
Alan Greenspan
The big questions of this week are will the global stock casinos stabilise this week, or will the last quarters bear market decline start to accelerate in October?
The other big question of the week is will OPEC cut production to firm up the price of Crude oil and if so, by how much.
A lesser question for the week, how much can
the dollar keep strengthening before the fragile global economy as we knew it
prior to the covid pandemic breaks?
European stocks
set to slump at the open, following gloomy sentiment in Asia-Pacific
UPDATED MON, OCT 3 2022 12:36 AM
EDT
European
stocks are heading for a lower open on Monday as markets enter the last quarter
of the year.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is expected
to open 73 points lower at 6,825, Germany’s DAX 202 points lower at 11,897,
France’s CAC 40 down 94 points at 5,663 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 292 points lower
at 20,182, according to data from IG.
The lower open expected in Europe
this morning comes after a gloomy trading session in Asia-Pacific markets, with
sharp moves in the price of oil. Brent crude futures
and West Texas
Intermediate futures
jumped after reports
that OPEC+ is considering an oil output cut of more than a
million barrels per day, citing sources.
Such a move would be the biggest
taken by the organization to address weakness in global demand.
ANZ sees significant
chance of an OPEC+ cut as large as 1 million barrels per day
Ahead of an OPEC+
meeting on Oct. 5, ANZ sees a “significant chance of a cut” as large as 1
million barrels per day, analysts at the firm said in a note.
That move is likely
to be made “to counteract the excessive bearishness in the market.”
The note added that
any production cuts below 500,000 barrels per day, however, would be “shrugged
off by the market.”
European
stocks, markets, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)
Asia-Pacific
markets mixed, Hang Seng index at lowest levels in 11 years; oil rises
UPDATED MON, OCT 3 2022 12:32 AM
EDT
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific mostly fell on Monday as markets enter the last quarter of the
year.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
1.19% down, reaching the lowest levels since October 2011, according to
Refinitiv Eikon data. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gave
up early gains to fall 0.12%.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan fell more than 1% in early trade, but recovered slightly and was last up
0.5%, while the Topix index was 0.1% higher. MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.8%.
Brent
crude futures
and West Texas
Intermediate futures jumped
on reports of a possible OPEC+ supply cut.
Later in the week, Australia’s
central bank will announce its interest rate decision, while several countries
in Asia will report inflation data.
China markets are closed for the
Golden Week holiday, and South Korea’s market is also closed.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fall; oil pops on possible OPEC+ supply cut (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
mixed after Dow, S&P 500 cap worst month since March 2020
UPDATED MON, OCT 3 2022 12:29 AM
EDT
Stock futures were mixed on Monday morning after
Wall Street wrapped up another negative quarter and both the S&P 500 and
Dow Jones Industrial Average finished
their worst month since March 2020.
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.52%
while futures tied to the S&P 500 lost 0.14%. Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures rose 0.07% or 21 points.
Friday capped off a negative
month and quarter for all the major averages, with the Dow falling 500.10
points, or 1.71%, to close below 29,000 for the first time since November 2020.
For the quarter, the Dow fell
6.66% to notch a three-quarter losing streak for the first time since the third
quarter of 2015. Both the S&P and Nasdaq Composite fell 5.28% and 4.11%,
respectively, to finish their third consecutive negative quarter for the first
time since 2009.
The Dow shed 8.8% in September,
while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 9.3% and 10.5%, respectively.
All the major averages also recorded their sixth negative week in seven.
Heading into the new quarter, all
S&P 500 sectors sit at least 10% off their 52-week highs. Nine sectors
finished the quarter in negative territory. Consumer discretionary was the best
performer, gaining more than 4.1%.
In the fourth quarter, elevated
inflation and a Federal Reserve intent on bringing surging prices to a halt
regardless of what it means for the economy will likely continue to weigh on
markets, said Truist’s Keith Lerner. Oversold conditions, however, also make
the market vulnerable to a sharp short-term bounce on good news, he added.
“I think we could be set up for
some type of reprieve but the underlying trend at this point is still a downward
trend and choppy waters to continue,” Lerner said.
On the economic front, Markit PMI
and ISM manufacturing data are slated for release on Monday along with
construction spending.
Stock
futures mixed after Dow, S&P 500 cap worst month since March 2020
(cnbc.com)
Investors hope to turn a page on a brutal September with the calendar turning to October. Looking to next week's highlights, there is a full roster of Federal Reserve Bank speakers, although the general expectation is that the central bankers will reiterate the goal to not pull back prematurely on restrictive monetary policy and higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the economic calendar is headlined by the September jobs report at the end of the week. For stock pickers, the flurry of investor events include presentations by Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI), Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) and Box (NYSE:BOX). Also watch for news from Google (GOOGL) with a Pixel hardware event on the calendar.
Seeking Alpha Market News | Seeking Alpha
Asia's
factory activity weakens on global slowdown, cost pressures
October
3, 2022 4:15 AM GMT+1 Last Updated 2 hours ago
TOKYO, Oct 3
(Reuters) - Asia's factory output mostly weakened in September as slowing
demand in China and advanced economies added to the pain from persistent cost
pressures, surveys showed on Monday, clouding the region's economic recovery
prospects.
Manufacturing
activity shrank in Taiwan and Malaysia, and grew at a slower pace in September
compared with August in Japan and Vietnam, as rising raw material costs and the
darkening global outlook weighed on corporate sentiment.
The surveys came
after China's factory and services activity data on Friday pointed to further
cooling in the world's second-largest economy as strict COVID lockdowns
disrupted production and dampened sales. read more
"We're
seeing economic conditions deteriorate in China, the United States and Europe.
That's definitely weighing on Asian manufacturing activity," said Toru
Nishihama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.
"While
supply disruptions may have run its course, Asia is now suffering from slumping
global demand."
The
au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slumped to
50.8 in September from 51.5 in the prior month, marking the weakest growth rate
since January last year.
New
orders shrank at the fastest rate in two years, while output posted its
sharpest decline in a year due to weakening demand from China and other trading
partners, Japan's PMI survey showed. read more
More
Asia's
factory activity weakens on global slowdown, cost pressures | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
'Everything from beer
to bacon': Cost of groceries could go up by £1.7bn as carbon dioxide price
surges
3
October 2022
The price of groceries could surge by £1.7bn due to the cost of carbon
dioxide rising by as much as 3000%, new analysis has shown.
The UK's food and drink
sector could end up footing the mammoth extra bill for liquid CO2 if gas prices
remain high, according to research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit
(ECIU).
The gas is used in a
raft of sectors but particularly in food and drink, including in the slaughter
of pigs and chickens, to add fizz to beer and soft drinks, and in packaging
foods safely.
Rampant inflation amid the cost of
living crisis has caused production of carbon dioxide to be disrupted, leaving
industries reliant on the gas impacted by heavy ramifications.
Commercial energy prices across the
country have also rocketed over the past year, with the war in Ukraine pushing
up costs.
The price of a tonne of liquid CO2 is
up to 3000% higher than it was a year ago, currently as much as £3000 per
tonne, compared to just £100 per tonne one year ago, the ECIU said.
As a result, production at a key
ammonia site, where CO2 is created as a by-product, was temporarily halted in
August.
More
Column:
Global contagion risks should put G7 on standby
September
30, 202212:15 AM GMT+1
ORLANDO, Fla.,
Sept 29 (Reuters) - Two G7 countries' financial market conditions have
deteriorated so much that their central banks have been forced to intervene to
stop the rot, stabilize prices, and restore order.
While the Bank of
Japan's first yen-buying intervention in 24 years and the Bank of England's
remarkable bond-buying foray seem separate and uniquely domestic issues, they
are linked by a common thread that poses growing risks to global financial
stability.
The Fed's
relentless interest rate-raising campaign, and resulting worldwide surge in the
dollar, is tightening global financial conditions at an alarming pace.
The degree to
which this is behind the Japanese yen and UK gilt market turmoil, specifically,
is open to question, but it helped expose their fragility.
It is undeniably
the biggest single driver of the intense selling and volatility sweeping world
markets, and shows little sign of dissipating.
Many feel this
should put global financial leaders on the highest contagion alert. Which
market might succumb next to evaporating liquidity, forced selling, and gapping
prices? Is the mighty U.S. Treasury market immune?
"All
markets, even the deepest and most liquid, can be challenged by a loss of
confidence in a world in which securities holdings are so widely
dispersed," said Willem Buiter, a former BoE rate-setter.
"Collective
action is needed rather than individual action. This is a global issue now,
requiring a collective response."
Buiter reckons a
joint G7 and China statement outlining their commitment to global financial
stability, and a course of potential coordinated actions across all key markets
if needed, would be ideal.
It may prove
politically difficult, however, to get the United States or G7 to sign off on
anything with China. Next best would be a stand alone G7 statement or
communique as a shot across world market bows.
China's central bank has
asked major state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars overseas to stem
the yuan's descent. Could that involve selling U.S. Treasuries? If so, some
kind of coordinated action later would seem likely.
More
Column: Global contagion risks should put G7 on
standby | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Covid-19: How to prepare
for a possible winter wave
2 October 2022
Covid infection rates have
fallen considerably since the summer but experts are warning of a potential
wave as winter approaches.
A vaccination
booster campaign is under way for vulnerable groups.
The latest
Department of Health statistics for Northern Ireland show one person in 80 is
infected.
During the most
recent week for which figures are available, 14-20 September, it is estimated
that 23,100 people had Covid-19.
This equates to
1.26% of the population.
Positive tests have decreased
Modelling suggests
the percentage of people testing positive in Northern Ireland decreased in the
two weeks up to 20 September 2002
As the chart below shows, there has been a marked decline in the number of people in NI hospitals with Covid.
Despite the current
low figures, Dr Joanne McClean from the Public Health Agency told the BBC's
Good Morning Ulster: "We expect to have a further wave of Covid this
winter."
Last week
saw the
first rise in Covid infections in England and Wales since July.
NHS director
for vaccinations and screening Steve Russell said: "This winter could be
the first time we see the effects of the so-called twin-demic with both Covid
and flu in full circulation.
"It is vital
that those most susceptible to serious illness from these viruses come forward
for vaccines in order to protect themselves and those around them."
More
Covid-19: How to
prepare for a possible winter wave - BBC News
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
TAGENERGY’S BATTERY STORAGE FACILITY COMES ONLINE
30
Sep 2022
TagEnergy's first UK battery storage
facility has commenced operations following completion of construction at the
20MW/40MWh Hawkers Hill Energy Park near Shaftesbury in Dorset.
The milestone makes Hawkers Hill the
first TagEnergy renewable energy project to go online from among its growing
portfolio of more than 3GW in five countries - the UK, Spain, Portugal, France
and Australia.
The new-build project has just been
exported to the grid, a year after TagEnergy and project partner Tesla
commenced construction of the £16m facility in September 2021.
The project's development was
supported by a £6.4m funding package from Santander UK.
Franck Woitiez, chief executive of
TagEnergy, said: "Hawkers Hill Energy Park was the first investment we
announced when we entered the UK market in 2021. Its completion is a key
milestone in the advancement of our strategy to accelerate the energy
transition in the UK renewables market.
"We are proud to be delivering
clean power to support the national grid at this critical time and will
continue to leverage our battery storage expertise and flexible supply to
optimise the market, help stabilise the grid and increase renewables' share of
it."
TagEnergy’s
battery storage facility comes online | South West Business News | Insider
Media
“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that
can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”
“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.
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