Thursday, 27 October 2022

Will The Central Banksters Rescue Stocks?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1706 -49      Brent Crude 95.89

Spot Gold 1666           US 2 Year Yield 4.39 -0.03

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 27/10/22 World 634,239,155

Deaths 6,587,835

In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results far much less.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

In the stock casinos, optimism that the Fed and other central banks are close to ending their inflation fighting interest rate hikes.

Well maybe, but I think maybe not. Letting inflation loose again just as it was starting to come under control would be a major long term blunder to say the least.

Our global central banksters have managed to position themselves into a corner with no good outcomes for stocks, bonds and the US, EU and global economy. Just don’t let on the anyone peddling stocks and stock advice.

 

Stock futures rise as investors look past disappointing tech earnings, Meta shares crater

UPDATED WED, OCT 26 2022 11:24 PM EDT

Stock futures rose in overnight trading Wednesday as investors seemed to brush off disappointing results from Meta Platforms.

Shares of the Facebook parent company plummeted 18% in extended trading on a weak fourth-quarter forecastServiceNow shares, meanwhile, surged more than 10% after an earnings beat.

Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 traded 0.13% higher, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.21%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112 points, or 0.35%.

Stocks were mixed in Wednesday’s regular trading session as traders digested disappointing quarterly reports from Alphabet and Microsoft, and assessed what that means for future Federal Reserve rate hikes and economic growth.

Both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 snapped three-day win streaks, closing 2.04% and 0.74% lower, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished marginally higher, gaining 2.37 points to 31,839.11 and capping off its fourth consecutive positive session since September.

For the week, all the major averages remain in positive territory, with the Dow and S&P up more than 2% and Nasdaq roughly 1% higher. The Dow is on pace for its fourth positive week in a row since its five-week streak ended in November 2021.

“Investors are still struggling for direction and want clarity with respect to earnings and what the Fed will do going forward,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. “Remember, the market is a forward-looking mechanism and the earnings reports tell us what happened in the past. Investors want clarity and certainty. Right now, we still have a lot of uncertainty on multiple levels.”

Big technology earnings continue Thursday with results from Amazon and Apple. Earnings from Intel, McDonald’s, Merck and Caterpillar are also on deck.

Along with earnings, investors have their sights on an advanced reading of third-quarter gross domestic product expected to offer further clues into the state of the U.S. economy.

Weekly initial jobless claims and September durable goods are also slated for Thursday.

Stock futures rise as investors look past disappointing tech earnings, Meta shares crater (cnbc.com)

 

Hang Seng index jumps 2% in Asia session; South Korea grows slowest in year

UPDATED WED, OCT 26 2022 11:27 PM EDT

Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed Thursday as investors digest economic data in the region.

The Hang Seng index jumped more than 3% in early trade before paring gains to about 2.4%, boosted by tech stocks. The Hang Seng Tech index rose more than 4%.

Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite inched 0.33% higher, and the Shenzhen Component was up 0.291%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.69% and the Kospi added 1.53%. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose1.55%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was just below the flatline while the Topix lost 0.35% — bucking the trend in the region.

South Korea’s third-quarter GDP grew 0.3% from the previous quarter, according to official advance data — the slowest growth since the third quarter of 2021. China’s industrial profits for January to September fell 2.3% compared to a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics reported.

The Bank of Japan begins its two-day meeting on monetary policy Thursday. In corporate news, Samsung Electronics announced its third quarter earnings after releasing estimates earlier this month.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Nasdaq fell 2.04% to close at 10,970.99. The S&P 500 shed 0.74% to 3,830.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.37 points, roughly flat for the day and ending at 31,839.11.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed; South Korea GDP grows slowest in year (cnbc.com)

 

ECB to hike interest rates, likely to trim bank subsidies

FRANKFURT, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will raise interest rates again on Thursday and likely reel in a key subsidy to commercial banks, taking another huge step in tightening policy to fight off a historic surge in inflation.

Fearing that rapid price growth is becoming entrenched, the ECB has already raised rates at the fastest pace on record, and there is little let-up in sight as unwinding a decade worth of stimulus could take it well into next year and beyond.

The ECB is almost certain to raise its 0.75% deposit rate by 75 basis points - for a cumulative 2 percentage-point increase in three meetings - and signal that it is not yet done, even if the size of subsequent moves remains open to debate.

But in a potentially more important decision, the bank is also likely to take the first steps in reducing its 8.8 trillion euro balance sheet, bloated by years of debt purchases and ultra cheap loans extended to banks.

"The ECB is still in catch-up mode," BNP Paribas said. "We think there is now a comfortable majority for taking rates into restrictive territory."

But the rate decision is likely to be the easy part of Thursday's meeting.

Unlike in September, no policymaker has openly opposed the idea of a 75 basis-point hike on Thursday, and markets have fully priced in such a move, suggesting an easy unanimity, especially since the U.S. Federal Reserve has also hinted at a similar increase.

---- The ECB's rate decision is due out at 1215 GMT, followed by Lagarde's news conference at 1245 GMT.

The real battle is likely to be over how to reduce the ECB's balance sheet.

The most pressing issue is dealing with some 2.1 trillion euros worth of ultra-cheap loans handed out to commercial banks, which are now causing both a political and financial headache.

Having borrowed at zero or even negative rates, banks can now simply park this cash back at the ECB for a positive, risk-free return, which rises with each deposit rate hike.

More

ECB to hike interest rates, likely to trim bank subsidies | Reuters

In other news, the USA moves closer to a nationwide rail strike. If it were to happen and last more than a day or two, it would represent a major drag on the US economy.

A second railroad union votes down labor deal needed to avoid nationwide strike

The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen is the second union to vote down the tentative agreement between rail unions, freight rail companies and the Biden administration that was reached on September 15 and critical to avoiding a nationwide rail strike.

The BRS, which represents over 10,000 rail workers and is one of the last three unions at the bargaining table, overwhelmingly rejected the deal, with 39.23% of members approving and 60.57% voting not to approve.

“For the first time that I can remember, the BRS members voted not to ratify a National Agreement, and with the highest participation rate in BRS history,” said BRS president Michael Baldwin in a statement. “I have expressed my disappointment throughout the process in the lack of good-faith bargaining on the part of the NCCC [National Carriers Conference Committee], as well as the part PEB [Presidential Advisory Board] 250 played in denying BRS members the basic right of paid time off for illness. The NCCC and PEB also both failed to recognize the safety-sensitive and highly stressful job BRS members perform each day to keep the railroad running and supply chain flowing.”

The rejection of the National Tentative Agreement begins a “status quo” period during which the union will reengage with the NCCC until December 4.

A spokesperson for the Association of American Railroads tells CNBC, “Parties have agreed to maintain the status quo so discussions about next steps can progress.”

The AAR spokesperson cited the fact that half of all rail unions have ratified agreements based upon President Biden’s PEB recommendations, which includes the largest wage increases in nearly five decades and would lead to immediate payouts averaging more than $11,000 per railroader ahead of the holidays.

“Once in place, contracts crafted in partnership with the most labor friendly administration ever will allow railroads and railroaders to thrive into the future and deliver for both our customers and our families,” the railroad spokesperson said.

The railroads have estimated that a rail strike could cost the economy $2 billion per day.

More

Second railroad union rejects deal needed to avoid national strike (cnbc.com)

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Who knew it was a bad idea to start a war in the Ukraine?

Top brewer warns average cost of a pint may now exceed £7

WEDNESDAY 26 OCTOBER 2022 7:16 AM

 A top Brewer has said the average cost of a pint could cost reach £7 due to the cost of living. 

Scottish beer-maker Brewgooder’s chief executive Alan Mahon said the cost of raw ingredients were reaching “eye-watering” levels, pushing up the cost of a cold brew. 

Mahon said C02 was now costing 3,000 per cent more than a year ago, while the war in Ukraine has put up the price of other ingredients, such as wheat and barley, are increasing quicker than inflation.

Inflation is now at 10.1 per cent.

This comes as a major survey from the ONS found the average cost of 30 usually low-cost staple items like bread, oil and meat had increased in price by 17 per cent. 

Speaking to the BBC, Mahon said:  “I used to think ‘perfect storm’ was a cliché until we found ourselves slap bang in the middle of what the industry is facing right now.

“It is perhaps a greater long-term challenge than that created by rolling Covid lockdowns.

“From what we are seeing, the pressures on the industry with cost price inflation challenges and the chancellor’s scrapping of the alcohol duty freeze might make a £7 pint the norm rather than the exception in many places – particularly in bigger cities.”

Top brewer warns average cost of a pint may now exceed £7 (cityam.com)

U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

Oct 26 (Reuters) - The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2001 as tightening financial conditions weigh on the housing sector, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.

The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 22 basis points to 7.16% for the week ended Oct. 21 while the MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell 1.7% from a week earlier. Mortgage application activity is at its slowest pace since 1997.

Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, as the Federal Reserve pursues an aggressive path of interest rate hikes to rein in stubbornly high inflation.

The central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time at the conclusion of its next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2.

Those actions, designed to cool the economy sufficiently to curb price pressures, have weighed heavily on the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector as expectations for Fed tightening have led to a surge in Treasury yields.

The yield on the 10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.

U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 | Reuters

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end. 

Please share! This Dangerous Research must be stopped.

Due to its importance, we will leave this YouTube clip up all week.

New Boston [SARS] virus  Approx. 19 minutes.

[Kills 80 percent of humanised mice.]

New Boston virus - YouTube

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

"Cosmic magnet" recreated in lab as alternative to rare earths

Michael Irving  October 25, 2022

Rare earth elements are a key part of electronic and mechanical devices, but they’re in short supply. Now, scientists have found a way to recreate a promising alternative – a “cosmic magnet” that normally takes millions of years to form in meteorites can now be cooked up in the lab in seconds.

Many of our electronic devices and mechanical components rely on rare earths. That’s especially true for greener technologies – high-performance magnets, which are vital for everything from wind turbines to electric cars, require these elements. But unfortunately, although not actually rare in the Earth's crust, they’re difficult to mine and their production is currently concentrated in China, leading to supply concerns.

“Rare earth deposits exist elsewhere, but the mining operations are highly disruptive: you have to extract a huge amount of material to get a small volume of rare earths,” said Professor Lindsay Greer, lead researcher on the study. “Between the environmental impacts, and the heavy reliance on China, there’s been an urgent search for alternative materials that do not require rare earths.”

As such, scientists have been investigating ways to recycle rare earths from old batteries and electronics, extract them from new sources like wastewater, and find more common minerals that could perform similar functions.

In the new study, researchers from Cambridge investigated a promising alternative called tetrataenite. This mineral is an alloy of iron and nickel arranged in a stacked crystalline structure, which gives it magnetic properties similar to those of rare earth magnets. The advantage of course is that iron and nickel are much easier to come by.

The problem is, tetrataenite is tricky to find – it mostly shows up in meteorite samples, where it’s thought to have taken millions of years to form. Previous attempts to produce it artificially in the lab have shown some success, but the techniques aren’t scalable.

On closer inspection of meteorite samples of tetrataenite, the team found that phosphorus was in the mix, helping to speed up the arrangement of the iron and nickel atoms into the stack structure. So, they mixed iron, nickel and phosphorus together in specific quantities, and found that tetrataenite formed up to 15 orders of magnitude faster – essentially, in seconds.

“What was so astonishing was that no special treatment was needed: we just melted the alloy, poured it into a mold, and we had tetrataenite,” said Greer. “The previous view in the field was that you couldn’t get tetrataenite unless you did something extreme, because otherwise, you’d have to wait millions of years for it to form. This result represents a total change in how we think about this material.”

The team says this discovery could lead to a viable alternative to rare-earth magnets – although more work will be required to check whether tetrataenite created this way will work in these magnets.

The research was published in the journal Advanced Science.

"Cosmic magnet" recreated in lab as alternative to rare earths (newatlas.com)

"In economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."

John Kenneth Galbraith.

 

 

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