Baltic Dry Index. 1706 -49 Brent Crude 95.89
Spot Gold 1666 US 2 Year Yield 4.39 -0.03
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 27/10/22 World 634,239,155
Deaths 6,587,835
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
In the stock casinos, optimism that the Fed and other central banks are close to ending their inflation fighting interest rate hikes.
Well maybe, but I think maybe not. Letting inflation loose again just as it was starting to come under control would be a major long term blunder to say the least.
Our global central banksters have managed to
position themselves into a corner with no good outcomes for stocks, bonds and the
US, EU and global economy. Just don’t let on the anyone peddling stocks and
stock advice.
Stock futures
rise as investors look past disappointing tech earnings, Meta shares crater
UPDATED WED, OCT 26 2022 11:24 PM
EDT
Stock
futures rose in overnight trading Wednesday as investors seemed to brush off
disappointing results from Meta Platforms.
Shares of the
Facebook parent company plummeted 18% in extended trading on a weak
fourth-quarter forecast. ServiceNow shares,
meanwhile, surged
more than 10% after an earnings beat.
Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100
traded 0.13% higher, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.21%. Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112 points, or 0.35%.
Stocks were mixed in Wednesday’s
regular trading session as traders digested disappointing quarterly reports
from Alphabet and Microsoft,
and assessed what that means for future Federal Reserve rate hikes and economic
growth.
Both the Nasdaq Composite and
S&P 500 snapped three-day win streaks, closing 2.04% and 0.74% lower,
respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished marginally higher,
gaining 2.37 points to 31,839.11 and capping off its fourth consecutive
positive session since September.
For the week, all the major
averages remain in positive territory, with the Dow and S&P up more than 2%
and Nasdaq roughly 1% higher. The Dow is on pace for its fourth positive week
in a row since its five-week streak ended in November 2021.
“Investors are still struggling
for direction and want clarity with respect to earnings and what the Fed will
do going forward,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. “Remember, the
market is a forward-looking mechanism and the earnings reports tell us what
happened in the past. Investors want clarity and certainty. Right now, we still
have a lot of uncertainty on multiple levels.”
Big technology earnings continue
Thursday with results from Amazon and Apple. Earnings from Intel, McDonald’s,
Merck and Caterpillar are also on deck.
Along with earnings, investors
have their sights on an advanced reading of third-quarter gross domestic
product expected to offer further clues into the state of the U.S. economy.
Weekly initial jobless claims and
September durable goods are also slated for Thursday.
Stock
futures rise as investors look past disappointing tech earnings, Meta shares
crater (cnbc.com)
Hang Seng index
jumps 2% in Asia session; South Korea grows slowest in year
UPDATED WED, OCT 26 2022 11:27 PM
EDT
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific were mixed Thursday as investors digest economic data in the
region.
The Hang Seng index jumped
more than 3% in early trade before paring gains to about 2.4%, boosted by tech
stocks. The Hang Seng Tech index rose more than 4%.
Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite inched
0.33% higher, and the Shenzhen Component was
up 0.291%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.69% and the Kospi added
1.53%. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
rose1.55%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
just below the flatline while the Topix lost 0.35% — bucking the trend in the
region.
South Korea’s
third-quarter GDP grew 0.3% from the previous quarter, according to official
advance data — the slowest growth since the third quarter of 2021. China’s
industrial profits for January to September fell 2.3% compared to a year ago,
the National Bureau of Statistics reported.
The Bank of Japan
begins its two-day meeting on monetary policy Thursday. In corporate news,
Samsung Electronics announced its third quarter earnings after releasing
estimates earlier this month.
Overnight on Wall Street,
the Nasdaq fell 2.04% to close at 10,970.99. The S&P 500 shed 0.74% to
3,830.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.37 points, roughly flat for
the day and ending at 31,839.11.
Asia-Pacific
markets mixed; South Korea GDP grows slowest in year (cnbc.com)
ECB
to hike interest rates, likely to trim bank subsidies
October 27, 2022 1:50
AM GMT+1
FRANKFURT, Oct 27
(Reuters) - The European Central Bank will raise interest rates again on
Thursday and likely reel in a key subsidy to commercial banks, taking another
huge step in tightening policy to fight off a historic surge in inflation.
Fearing
that rapid price growth is becoming entrenched, the ECB has already raised
rates at the fastest pace on record, and there is little let-up in sight as
unwinding a decade worth of stimulus could take it well into next year and
beyond.
The ECB is almost
certain to raise its 0.75% deposit rate by 75 basis points - for a cumulative 2
percentage-point increase in three meetings - and signal that it is not yet
done, even if the size of subsequent moves remains open to debate.
But
in a potentially more important decision, the bank is also likely to take the
first steps in reducing its 8.8 trillion euro balance sheet, bloated by years
of debt purchases and ultra cheap loans extended to banks.
"The
ECB is still in catch-up mode," BNP Paribas said. "We think there is
now a comfortable majority for taking rates into restrictive territory."
But the rate
decision is likely to be the easy part of Thursday's meeting.
Unlike
in September, no policymaker has openly opposed the idea of a 75 basis-point
hike on Thursday, and markets have fully priced in such a move, suggesting an
easy unanimity, especially since the U.S. Federal Reserve has also hinted at a
similar increase.
---- The ECB's
rate decision is due out at 1215 GMT, followed by Lagarde's news conference at
1245 GMT.
The real battle
is likely to be over how to reduce the ECB's balance sheet.
The
most pressing issue is dealing with some 2.1 trillion euros worth of
ultra-cheap loans handed out to commercial banks, which are now causing both a
political and financial headache.
Having
borrowed at zero or even negative rates, banks can now simply park this cash
back at the ECB for a positive, risk-free return, which rises with each deposit
rate hike.
More
ECB
to hike interest rates, likely to trim bank subsidies | Reuters
In other news, the USA moves closer to a nationwide rail strike. If it were to happen and last more than a day or two, it would represent a major drag on the US economy.
A second railroad
union votes down labor deal needed to avoid nationwide strike
The Brotherhood of
Railroad Signalmen is the second union to vote down the tentative agreement
between rail unions, freight rail companies and the Biden administration that
was reached on September 15 and critical to avoiding a nationwide rail strike.
The BRS, which
represents over 10,000 rail workers and is one of the last three unions at the
bargaining table, overwhelmingly rejected the deal, with 39.23% of members
approving and 60.57% voting not to approve.
“For the first time
that I can remember, the BRS members voted not to ratify a National Agreement,
and with the highest participation rate in BRS history,” said BRS president
Michael Baldwin in a statement. “I have expressed my disappointment throughout
the process in the lack of good-faith bargaining on the part of the NCCC
[National Carriers Conference Committee], as well as the part PEB [Presidential
Advisory Board] 250 played in denying BRS members the basic right of paid time
off for illness. The NCCC and PEB also both failed to recognize the
safety-sensitive and highly stressful job BRS members perform each day to keep
the railroad running and supply chain flowing.”
The rejection of the
National Tentative Agreement begins a “status quo” period during which the
union will reengage with the NCCC until December 4.
A spokesperson for
the Association of American Railroads tells CNBC, “Parties have agreed to
maintain the status quo so discussions about next steps can progress.”
The AAR spokesperson
cited the fact that half of all rail unions have ratified agreements based upon
President Biden’s PEB recommendations, which includes the largest wage
increases in nearly five decades and would lead to immediate payouts averaging
more than $11,000 per railroader ahead of the holidays.
“Once in place,
contracts crafted in partnership with the most labor friendly administration
ever will allow railroads and railroaders to thrive into the future and deliver
for both our customers and our families,” the railroad spokesperson said.
The railroads have
estimated that a rail strike could cost the economy $2 billion per day.
More
Second
railroad union rejects deal needed to avoid national strike (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Who
knew it was a bad idea to start a war in the Ukraine?
Top
brewer warns average cost of a pint may now exceed £7
WEDNESDAY 26 OCTOBER 2022 7:16 AM
A top Brewer has said the average
cost of a pint could cost reach £7 due to the cost of living.
Scottish beer-maker Brewgooder’s
chief executive Alan Mahon said the cost of raw ingredients were reaching
“eye-watering” levels, pushing up the cost of a cold brew.
Mahon said C02 was now costing 3,000
per cent more than a year ago, while the war in Ukraine has put up the price of
other ingredients, such as wheat and barley, are increasing quicker than
inflation.
Inflation is now at 10.1 per cent.
This comes as a major survey from the
ONS found the average cost of 30 usually low-cost staple items like bread, oil
and meat had increased in price by 17 per cent.
Speaking to the BBC, Mahon
said: “I used to think ‘perfect storm’ was a cliché until we found
ourselves slap bang in the middle of what the industry is facing right now.
“It is perhaps a greater long-term
challenge than that created by rolling Covid lockdowns.
“From what we are seeing, the
pressures on the industry with cost price inflation challenges and the
chancellor’s scrapping of the alcohol duty freeze might make a £7 pint the norm
rather than the exception in many places – particularly in bigger cities.”
Top brewer warns
average cost of a pint may now exceed £7 (cityam.com)
U.S.
mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001
October 26, 2022
12:25 PM GMT+1
Oct 26 (Reuters)
- The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its
highest level since 2001 as tightening financial conditions weigh on the
housing sector, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on
Wednesday.
The average
contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 22 basis points to 7.16%
for the week ended Oct. 21 while the MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of
mortgage loan application volume, fell 1.7% from a week earlier. Mortgage
application activity is at its slowest pace since 1997.
Mortgage rates
have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, as the Federal Reserve
pursues an aggressive path of interest rate hikes to rein in stubbornly high
inflation.
The central bank
is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time at the
conclusion of its next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2.
Those actions,
designed to cool the economy sufficiently to curb price pressures, have weighed
heavily on the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector as expectations for Fed
tightening have led to a surge in Treasury yields.
The yield on the
10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.
U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 | Reuters
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Please share! This Dangerous Research must
be stopped.
Due to its importance, we will leave this YouTube clip up all week.
New
Boston [SARS] virus Approx. 19 minutes.
[Kills
80 percent of humanised mice.]
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
"Cosmic
magnet" recreated in lab as alternative to rare earths
Michael Irving October 25, 2022
Rare earth
elements are a key part of electronic and mechanical devices, but they’re in
short supply. Now, scientists have found a way to recreate a promising
alternative – a “cosmic magnet” that normally takes millions of years to form
in meteorites can now be cooked up in the lab in seconds.
Many of our electronic devices and mechanical components rely
on rare earths. That’s especially true for greener technologies –
high-performance magnets, which are vital for everything from wind turbines to
electric cars, require these elements. But unfortunately, although not actually
rare in the Earth's crust, they’re difficult to mine and their production is
currently concentrated in China, leading to supply concerns.
“Rare
earth deposits exist elsewhere, but the mining operations are highly
disruptive: you have to extract a huge amount of material to get a small volume
of rare earths,” said Professor Lindsay Greer, lead researcher on the study.
“Between the environmental impacts, and the heavy reliance on China, there’s
been an urgent search for alternative materials that do not require rare
earths.”
As
such, scientists have been investigating ways to recycle rare earths from old
batteries and electronics, extract them from new sources
like wastewater, and find more common
minerals that could perform similar functions.
In the new study, researchers from Cambridge investigated a promising
alternative called tetrataenite. This mineral is an alloy of iron and nickel
arranged in a stacked crystalline structure, which gives it magnetic properties
similar to those of rare earth magnets. The advantage of course is that iron
and nickel are much easier to come by.
The problem is, tetrataenite is tricky to find – it mostly shows up in
meteorite samples, where it’s thought to have taken millions of years to form.
Previous attempts to produce it artificially in the lab have shown some
success, but the techniques aren’t scalable.
On closer inspection of meteorite samples of tetrataenite, the team
found that phosphorus was in the mix, helping to speed up the arrangement of
the iron and nickel atoms into the stack structure. So, they mixed iron, nickel
and phosphorus together in specific quantities, and found that tetrataenite
formed up to 15 orders of magnitude faster – essentially, in seconds.
“What
was so astonishing was that no special treatment was needed: we just melted the
alloy, poured it into a mold, and we had tetrataenite,” said Greer. “The
previous view in the field was that you couldn’t get tetrataenite unless you
did something extreme, because otherwise, you’d have to wait millions of years
for it to form. This result represents a total change in how we think about
this material.”
The
team says this discovery could lead to a viable alternative to rare-earth
magnets – although more work will be required to check whether tetrataenite
created this way will work in these magnets.
The
research was published in the journal Advanced
Science.
"Cosmic
magnet" recreated in lab as alternative to rare earths (newatlas.com)
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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