Baltic Dry Index. 1838 +20 Brent Crude 91.63
Spot Gold 1644 U S 2 Year Yield 4.48 +0.01
BBC Michael Fish 15th October 1987 hurricane forecast full
version!
Dow closes 400 points lower to end a wild week of
trading
UPDATED FRI, OCT 14 2022 5:22 PM EDT
Stocks slumped
Friday, capping off a volatile week of trading, a day after posting a historic
turnaround rally as investors digested inflation expectations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 403.89
points, or 1.34%, to end the day at 29,634.83. Still, the index was up 1.15% on
the week. The S&P 500 shed 2.37% to 3,583.07 and notched its seventh
negative close in eight days. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.08%, ending the
day at 10,321.39, weighed down by losses in Tesla and Lucid Motors, which
declined 7.55% and 8.61%, respectively.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended the week
lower, falling 1.55% and 3.11%, respectively.
Stocks fell to session lows after a consumer
survey from the University of Michigan showed inflation expectations were
increasing, a sentiment that the Federal Reserve is likely watching closely.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq led declines as growth companies are most sensitive to
interest rate hikes.
At the same time, bond yields
spiked, with the rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury topping 4% for the second
time in two days as investors react to higher inflation expectations.
Markets whipsawed throughout the
week as investors weighed new inflation data that will inform the Fed as it
continues to hike interest rates to cool off price increases. On Thursday,
stocks staged a major turnaround. The Dow ended Thursday’s session up 827
points after being down more than 500 points at the intraday low. The S&P
500 rose 2.6% to break a six-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped
2.2%.
Thursday marked the fifth largest
intraday reversal from a low in the history of the S&P 500, and it was the
fourth largest for the Nasdaq, according to SentimenTrader.
The moves followed the release of the
consumer price index, a key U.S. inflation reading that came in
hotter than expected for the month of September. Initially, this weighed on
markets as investors braced themselves for the Federal Reserve to continue with
its aggressive rate-hiking plan. Later, however, they shrugged off those
worries.
Still, persistent inflation
remains a problem for the Fed and for investors’ worries around the central
bank’s policy tightening.
“With core CPI still moving in
the wrong direction and the labor market strong, the conditions are not in
place for a Fed policy pivot, which would be one of the conditions for a
sustained rally in the equity market,” wrote UBS global wealth management chief
investment officer Mark Haefele in a Friday note.
“Moreover, as inflation remains
elevated for longer and the Fed hikes further, the risk increases that the
cumulative effect of policy tightening pushes the US economy into recession,
undermining the outlook for corporate earnings,” he added.
British government performs major U-turn on tax cuts.
But markets are far from convinced
LONDON — A
major reshuffle and the scrapping of a key tax-cutting pledge by U.K. Prime
Minister Liz Truss on Friday wasn’t enough to placate markets
with the pound and government bonds continuing to sell off.
At a hastily-arranged news
conference, Truss reversed plans to scrap an increase in U.K. corporation tax —
the second backtrack on her controversial “mini-budget” which has roiled
markets since it was announced on Sept. 23.
Hours before Friday’s announcement, Truss sacked her finance minister,
Kwasi Kwarteng, and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt, making Kwarteng the second
shortest-serving chancellor on record.
U.K. government bonds — known as gilts — rallied
sharply ahead of Truss’ news conference. The long-dated 30-year yield briefly
touched 4.261% during morning trade. Yields move inversely to prices.
But they gave back gains after the
conference, with the 30-year yield returning to around 4.819% by around 5 p.m.
U.K. time.
Sterling whipsawed
during a volatile session and fell around 1.1% against the dollar after
Truss’ speech, trading at around $1.1205.
It seems that Truss’s speech did little to reassure
markets, or to convince analysts that Britain’s financial storm has passed.
Rather than settling the waters, Truss’s U-turn on
tax decisions will leave investors cautious of future political upheaval,
according to Mike Owens, a U.K. sales trader at Saxo.
“This historic U-turn could bring some joy to the
market, though act as a warning and increase uncertainty over further
short-term change of hearts, which will continue to see the economy travel down
Liz Truss’ political helter skelter,” Owens said in an analysis note.
The announcements Friday may have come too late,
suggested Ben Laidler from investment company eToro. “There is a feeling that
the horse may have bolted,” Laidler said in a note released just before Truss’s
statement.
“The costs of the mini-budget horror show have
already been high and it’s not clear that the expected corporation tax U-turn
will sustainably calm markets,” he said.
“It remains to be seen if any announcement will be
enough to underpin markets, after today’s end to the Bank of England’s
emergency support of the UK bond market,” Laidler concluded.
Corporation tax was set to increase
from 19% to 25% under Truss’ predecessor, Boris Johnson, but that was scrapped
by Truss during the mini-budget on Sept. 23. The tax will now increase as
originally planned.
“It is clear that parts of our
mini-budget went further and faster than markets were expecting so the way we
are delivering our mission must change,” Truss told a press conference on
Friday.
The end of Truss?
Berenberg Bank described the policy
U-turn as “a major humiliation for Truss” and suggested her days as prime
minister may be numbered.
“It is not easy to see how Truss –
whose personal mandate is now in tatters – can continue as PM for long,” the
bank’s analysis read.
“We would not be surprised if
Conservative MPs pressure Truss to resign in coming days. With more than two
years to go until a general election needs to be held (January 2024), the
Conservative Party may decide its best shot to stay in power is to quickly move
on with a new leader,” it concluded.
Citi Bank went one step further and
questioned whether the Conservative Party more widely was capable of navigating
the current economic situation.
“The fundamental question here is
whether any Conservative leader can offer credible economic direction. We are
increasingly unsure,” an analysis note from the bank said.
“The implication is PM Truss now
faces a squeeze between her Parliamentary party on the one hand and markets on
the other. We do not expect financial concerns to abate as a result of today’s
action,” Citi Bank said.
“Instead we believe further market
instability likely lies ahead,” it said.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Wall St drops as consumer data stokes
inflation worry
October 14, 2022 9:28 PM GMT+1
NEW YORK, Oct 14
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks dropped on Friday as worsening inflation expectations
kept intact worries that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike path could
trigger a recession, while investors digested the early stages of earnings
season.
In
the last session of a volatile week, equities opened higher, then reversed
course after data from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved in October
but inflation expectations worsened as gasoline prices moved higher. Retail
sales data also indicated resilience among consumers.
"The main thrust for the
market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is
going to continue to move its fed funds target higher," said Anthony
Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.
"The
narrative that we’ve seen peak inflation is not evident yet and that’s
depressing the market."
On
Thursday, a reading on consumer prices (CPI) showed inflation remained
stubbornly high.
Fed officials have been largely in sync when commenting on the
need to raise rates and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview the recent CPI data warrants a continued
"frontloading" through larger three-quarter-percentage point steps,
although that does not necessarily mean rates need to be raised above the
central bank's most recent projections.
More
Wall St drops as consumer data stokes inflation worry | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The
Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
CDC Announces Major Shift, Will
Stop Reporting Daily COVID Cases
By October 9, 2022 Updated: October
9, 2022
The
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
announced that it will publish COVID-19 cases
and deaths on a weekly basis, marking a major shift in its reporting since the
start of the pandemic.
“To allow for additional
reporting flexibility, reduce the reporting burden on states and jurisdictions,
and maximize surveillance resources, CDC is moving to a weekly reporting
cadence,” the federal agency said in
a statement last week.
Local and state health
departments, under the new guidance, will have to report new COVID-19 deaths
and cases to the CDC every week on Wednesdays. The new change will go into
effect starting Oct. 20, according to the agency.
“Data processing cutoffs for
jurisdictions will be every Wednesday at 10 A.M. ET for line level case and
death data, and Wednesday at 5 P.M. ET for aggregate case and death data,” the
CDC said.
Daily data on COVID-19
hospitalizations will still be provided, according to the CDC, and it will use
information from the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
White House
COVID-19 coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said on Oct. 7 that a number of states have
shifted away from daily reporting to a weekly reporting system. Jha said that
daily reporting has become unreliable
---- A similar move was
made several months ago when the CDC shifted from daily to weekly reporting of
COVID-19 vaccinations. New data is published only on Thursdays now.
Other Changes
And earlier this month, the CDC announced it will no
longer be reporting country-by-country COVID-19 travel advisories until there
is a significant development, such as the emergence of a new variant, officials
said. And in June, the federal government ended its requirement for
international travelers coming to the United States to provide a COVID-19 test.
As recently as March, the CDC
recommended against travel to about 120 countries and territories worldwide or
more than half of all destinations.
More
CDC
Announces Major Shift, Will Stop Reporting Daily COVID Cases (theepochtimes.com)
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Hmmm?
U.S. to probe Samsung, Qualcomm, TSMC
over semiconductors, circuits
October
14, 2022 4:43 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON,
Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators will investigate units of Samsung (005930.KS), Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Co. (2330.TW) (TSMC) over certain
semiconductor devices and integrated circuits and mobile devices using those
components, the U.S. International Trade Commission said on Friday.
The
USITC will probe certain semiconductors manufactured by Samsung and TSMC, and
certain integrated circuits from Samsung and Qualcomm following a complaint
filed last month by New York-based Daedalus Prime LLC, it said in statements
following voted to take up the probes.
U.S.
to probe Samsung, Qualcomm, TSMC over semiconductors, circuits | Reuters
This weekend’s music diversion. Handel again. Probably his finest organ concerto. Approx. 10 minutes.
Organ
Concerto in B flat major Op.4/2 HWV 290, La Divina Armonia
(2) G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in B flat major Op.4/2 HWV 290, La Divina Armonia - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 7 minutes.
No
Way a Grandmaster Loses in 10 Moves, Right?
(2) No Way a Grandmaster Loses in 10 Moves, Right? - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 12 minutes.
The
letter that revealed Ramanujan's genius
The
letter that revealed Ramanujan's genius - YouTube
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