Baltic Dry Index. 1992 -04 Brent Crude 94.28
Spot Gold 1711 US 2 Year Yield 4.23 +0.08
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 07/10/22 World 625,572,491
Deaths 6,557,776
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
Today it’s all about today’s latest US employment figures and whether they will force the Fed to stop raising interest rates to put an end to soaring US inflation.
My guess is that good, bad or indifferent, the Fed will keep raising interest rates into early 2023. Look away from that two year yield now.
The bear has more rampaging still to do.
OPEC’s production cut starting next month is likely to last longer than most expect, I think, as OPEC+ will game the market against when the US Strategic Oil Reserve needs to be restocked.
If Biden and the US Congress go ahead with their threatened NOPEC sanctions, get ready for the biggest dollar currency crisis of all times.
Time to add a little more fully paid up physical gold and silver I think.
Asia-Pacific
markets fall ahead of U.S. jobs report
UPDATED FRI, OCT 7 2022 12:28 AM EDT
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific fell on Friday ahead of the monthly
U.S. jobs report, which is likely to guide the Federal
Reserve’s monetary decision in November.
Payrolls are expected to increase
275,000 in September, and unemployment is predicted to be steady at 3.7%,
according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost
1.13% and the Hang Seng Tech index shed 2.8%. The Nikkei 225 in
Japan fell 0.6% and the Topix index slipped 0.66%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.57%.
South Korea’s Kospi gained
fractionally while the Kosdaq dropped 0.38%. MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell around 1%. Markets in mainland China
remain closed for a holiday.
Overnight in the
U.S., major indexes fell — the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 346.93 points,
or 1.15%, to 29,926.94. The S&P 500 declined 1.02% to 3,744.52, while the
Nasdaq Composite was 0.68% lower at 11,073.31.
“Equities struggled
as markets await the much-anticipated U.S. payrolls data … and as comments from
Fed officials maintained a ‘more is needed’ vibe,” ANZ Research analysts wrote
in a Friday note.
Asia-Pacific markets fall ahead of U.S. jobs report (cnbc.com)
Stock futures little
changed ahead of September’s jobs report
UPDATED FRI, OCT 7 2022 12:29 AM EDT
Stock
futures were flat on Friday morning as investors looked ahead to September’s
jobs report for further clues into the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average shed 12 points, or 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures dipped
0.09%. Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.07%.
Advanced Micro Devices’ stock
fell in overnight trading after the chipmaker warned
its third-quarter revenue would be lower than anticipated. Levi
Strauss shares slipped following a cut to its guidance.
Major averages closed lower
during regular trading but are on pace to cap their best week since June 24 and
finish about 4% higher. The Dow fell 346.93 points, or 1.15%, to 29,926.94,
while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 1.02% and 0.68%, respectively.
All major S&P sectors
finished the session in negative territory, with the exception of energy. The
sector rose 1.8% as oil prices gained and is on pace to close out the week
14.7% higher.
Thursday’s downdraft comes as
investors remain on edge ahead of September’s jobs report slated for release
Friday. The findings could offer further certainty into the Fed’s tightening
cycle, with a strong
jobs market or upside surprise signaling that the Fed may need
a tougher stance to slow the economy and tame surging prices. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones expect the data to show a 275,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls
and unemployment to hover at 3.7%.
“The environment is
ripe for a crisis and if the Fed keeps its hawkish communication up I think
we’re quite likely to have something break in the financial markets,” Scott
Minerd, Guggenheim’s global chief investment officer said on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime” on Thursday.
Minerd said the
pace of tightening is beginning to create cracks in the financial markets and
could force a Fed pivot in the coming weeks.
“All the signs are
there,” he said. “I can’t tell you exactly what will cause it, but the
environment is ripe and when the Fed pivots, they’re not going to preannounce
it, they’re not going to ring a bell.”
More
Stock futures litte changed ahead of September's jobs report (cnbc.com)
Gas
crisis set to worsen after Europe burns through winter stocks
October
5, 2022 5:56 PM GMT+1
HELSINKI/BRUSSELS,
Oct 5 (Reuters) - Europe may face an even more acute energy crunch next year
after draining its natural gas tanks to get through the cold of this winter,
the head of the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, as the EU looks
for ways to ease the crisis.
European
countries have filled storage tanks to around 90% of their capacity after
Russia cut gas supplies in response to Western sanctions imposed over its
invasion of Ukraine.
Gas prices ,
which surged in the months after the invasion in February, have retreated. But
that could be short-lived as countries compete to buy liquefied natural gas
(LNG) and other alternatives to Russian pipeline deliveries.
To help tackle
the pain, the European Union is considering a gas price cap, an
issue that has divided the 27-nation bloc as some countries worry it could make
securing supplies harder.
"With gas
storages almost at 90%, Europe will survive the coming winter with just some
bruises as long as there are no political or technical surprises," said
Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA.
The real
challenges facing Europe, which had historically relied on Russia for around
40% of its natural gas, will begin in February or March when storage needs to
be refilled after high winter demand has drained them to 25%-30%.
"This winter
is difficult but next winter may also be very difficult," Birol told
journalists in Finland.
European
governments have moved to cushion consumers from the impact of higher prices
and on Wednesday, Germany said it will subsidise power bills next year by paying just under 13 billion euros
($12.8 billion) towards the usage fees charged by the four high-voltage
transmission grid companies (TSOs).
More
Gas crisis set to worsen after Europe burns through winter stocks | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Dutch
inflation hits record in Sept as energy prices soar
October
6, 2022 7:05 AM GMT+1
Oct 6 (Reuters) -
Inflation in the Netherlands shot to a record high in September mainly due to
higher energy prices, the Dutch statistics agency, CBS, said on Thursday.
The consumer
price index (CPI) rose to 14.5% in September year-on-year, from 12% percent in
August.
Energy was 200%
more expensive in September than in the same month last year, the CBS said,
adding that in August the increase was 151%.
The agency noted
that the inflation rate excluding energy and motor fuels picked up from 6% in August
to 6.5% in September.
The prices of
education also contributed to higher inflation as a government discount on
tuition and course fees introduced during the COVID-19 crisis will no longer be
available in the current academic year, the CBS said.
Clothing prices
were 8% higher in September than one year earlier, compared to a 3.3% rise in
August, the agency added.
The consumer
price index, harmonised to be comparable with inflation data from other
European Union countries (HICP), rose to 17.1% in September after an August
jump to 13.7%, CBS said last week.
Dutch inflation hits record in Sept as energy prices
soar | Reuters
Housing Market Collapse
Could Push Home Prices Down 20% In Major Markets Like Dallas And Los Angeles,
Experts Predict
Jonathan Ponciano, Forbes Staff October 5, 2022
As mortgage demand plummets to the lowest level
in 25 years, some experts believe the housing market decline will hit a cadre
of regions especially hard—pushing prices down as much as 20% in pandemic-era
hotspots and other areas where affordability has plunged—even if the broader
housing market remains afloat.
Mortgage applications plummeted 14.2% from one
week prior in the seven days ending Friday, pushing overall applications to
their lowest level since 1997, according to data released Wednesday by the
Mortgage Bankers Association.
Surging
rates have tacked on
$337, or 15%, to the typical monthly mortgage payment over the past six weeks
alone and pummeled housing demand nationwide as a result—so much that prices
have started to slip from record highs in some markets over the past few weeks.
According to
real estate brokerage Redfin, the median home sales price has climbed 7% to
$369,250 over the past year, but prices in San Francisco have ticked down 4%,
while those in neighboring Oakland, Calif. and New Orleans have fallen 0.5% and
11%, respectively.
Though he's
not expecting a nationwide correction, Tejas Joshi, a director at investment
firm Yieldstreet, expects home prices could face 20% decline in some regional
markets where new home construction will bolster supply— builders will be
forced to slash prices
"aggressively" in the coming months in areas like Dallas, Austin and
Boise, Idaho.
He also expects the correction will be worse for pandemic-era hotspots like Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas that have seen an influx of new residents over the past two years, exacerbating affordability concerns that have made some markets—including a high concentration in the western U.S.—vulnerable to a housing market correction, according to Goldman Sachs.
Goldman notes that 9% of active listings have
cut prices on Zillow (mainly in areas that saw a sharp run-up in prices during
the pandemic), which suggests that less affordable areas—such as Western cities
like Seattle, San Diego and Los Angeles—are most susceptible to a correction,
while more-affordable metros in the South are likely better positioned to avoid
one.
More
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Covid-19: hospital cases rise sharply over
three weeks
Number of hospital cases increases by 74 per cent to 405
confirmed infections since September 14th
Wed
Oct 5 2022 - 13:56
There are 405 confirmed cases of Covid-19 cases in hospital after an
increase of 74 per cent over the past three weeks, the State’s new chief
medical officer has said.
In a statement offering public health advice, Dr Breda Smyth urged people
to “stay well by being prepared for winter” amid an increase in the number of
Covid-19 infections in the community.
There have been an average of 60 new Covid-19 hospitalisations per day recorded
over the last seven days with a 23 per cent increase in the number of hospital
cases since 329 last week. This figure stood at 233 cases three weeks ago.
“Not all Covid-19 cases in hospital have
been admitted due to their infection, but every additional Covid-positive
patient adds to the strain on our hospital system as we enter what is expected
to be an extremely busy period,” said Dr Smyth.
As of September 27th, about 70 per cent of cases of hospitalised for
Covid-19 were people aged 65 years and older. Of these, more than one in four
had not completed their primary two-dose Covid-19 vaccine course and about two
in five had not yet received a booster dose.
“The scientific data tells us that the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines
wanes over time. It is important to keep up to date with your vaccine schedule
and make sure to receive a booster dose as soon as you are eligible,” said Dr
Smyth.
---- Amid concerns about the impact of a rise in Covid-19
cases coinciding with a challenging flu season, the HSE has begun to administer
Covid-19 booster vaccines and flu vaccines.
The public health advice remains that if people have symptoms of Covid-19
they should self-isolate until 48 hours after their symptoms have substantially
or fully resolved.
Symptomatic people are asked not to attend any social events, work,
school or college.
More
Covid-19: hospital
cases rise sharply over three weeks – The Irish Times
Covid-19: Further waves to
come this winter, warns chief medical officer
5
October 2022
This winter will see further
waves of Covid-19, Northern Ireland's chief medical officer has warned.
Prof Sir
Michael McBride said a recent analysis had indicated there had been an increase
in transmission.
He added that
Covid-19 and flu vaccines are the best way to protect vulnerable people and the
health system.
It comes as the
Royal College of Emergency Medicine warns lives are being lost as staff struggle to deal with health
pressures.
Over one
million people in Northern Ireland are being offered vaccines against the
viruses.
The programme
began on 20 September, earlier than in previous years.
England and
Wales are already seeing an increase in community transmission.
Sir Michael
said the public can anticipate seeing that same pattern over coming weeks.
Vaccines are being delivered through GP and community pharmacies as well as trust clinics and schools.
Sir Michael said public concern about Covid is at an all time low, but that should not become complacency.
"Immunity to
Covid declines over time so we must top up, we haven't seen flu in the last few
years so we need to take the vaccine to protect each other and hospitals,"
he said.
More
Covid-19: Further
waves to come this winter, warns chief medical officer - BBC News
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene:
Building the future military
October 4, 2022
Graphene, which is two-dimensional carbon, is
being touted as the next big thing that will change every aspect of complex
military hardware in the near future. This revolutionary graphene which has
most commonly been used in pencil is set to make revolutionary changes in the
different military platforms and equipment like protection armour.
Kanpur based MKU confirmed to
Financial Express Online that they are using this in the body armour they are
making. “The company has started using Graphene in the body armour for our
customers,” said a top company official.
In an earlier conversation, Neeraj
Gupta, Managing Director, MKU had said that his company has been investing a
lot in R&D and product upgrade, “This is important as the focus is on making
the body armour easier for soldiers to carry and be comfortable.”
One square metre of graphene is hardly 0.77 mg
in weight. Yet, it is 200 times stronger than steel, but its density is akin to
carbon fibre, which is five times lighter than steel. Military applications are
one of the most extreme, owing to the harshest and difficult terrains in the
world. Since the soldiers in the middle are performing extraordinary operations
to protect them, military research globally is the most expensive endeavour. And
graphene seems the perfect candidate for more research to understand its usage
in the military.
According to the information
available in the public domain, the strength and density characteristics of
graphene make it the ideal candidate for personal protection, especially
ballistic protection applications. A Spanish research team has created a
nano-composite material reinforced with graphene that has improved it to
withstand the impact of military ammunition.
While graphene was strengthening the
impact resistance in Spain, in the United Kingdom, graphene and silk are being
tested to reduce the weight of personal protective armour. They successfully
added graphene to silk, creating a lightweight, transparent yet sturdy
material. The team believes that their silk graphene can also be used in space
and medicine beyond the military.
“Graphene is set to aid military
aviation majorly. Its robust properties make it ideal for components like the
aircraft fuselage that sustains extreme temperatures. It can also be used in
de-icing technologies. We have already seen graphene composites offer better
impact resistance, making them ideal for helicopter and aircraft structures.
Specifically for fighter aircraft, graphene-based paints can keep them off
enemy radars by decreasing the radar footprint,“ Girish Linganna, Aerospace
& Defence Analyst explained to Financial Express Online.
More
Graphene:
Building the future military (msn.com)
Another weekend and another weekend
closer to our northern hemisphere winter. Another weekend closer to NOPEC
forcing OPEC to dump vulnerable to seizure dollar assets. Forcing everyone to
repatriate gold and other assets from America and GB.
How much physical gold and silver does
London really have rather than paper gold and silver? With NOPEC, I expect we will all soon find
out. Have a great weekend everyone.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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