Special Update 21/03/2026 The Global Economy, How Long Have We Got Left?

Baltic Dry Index. 2056 +01    Brent Crude 112.19

Spot Gold 4492                           Spot Silver 67.81

U S 2 Year Yield 3.88 +0.09

US Federal Debt. 39.016 trillion

US GDP 31.255 trillion

Few policies are more calculated to destroy the existing basis of a free society than the debauching of its currency. And few tasks, if any, are more important to the champion of freedom than creation of a sound monetary system.

Hans F. Sennholz

Going down. How did the Israeli-USA Trump bear market start, slowly then suddenly.

As the increasingly unhinged Trump calls his NATO allies “COWARDS” for not bailing him out of his foolish arbitrary  war in the Persian Gulf, the US and global economy is now starting to crash.

How long before global unemployment seriously rises, the velocity of money stalls, private credit crashes, my guess is just another seven to ten days unless Caesar  declares victory, ends the war and opens up the Strait of Hormuz.

The likelihood of that happening in my opinion, less than ten percent.

In my other ninety percent, Trump’s Great Global Depression 2.0.

Hoping to be very wrong, dinosaur Graeme.

Stocks tumble Friday as losses mount from Iran war impact, Dow and Nasdaq near correction: Live updates

Updated Fri, Mar 20 2026 4:32 PM EDT

Stocks tumbled in volatile trading Friday as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran showed no sign of abating and oil prices continued their ascent.

The Dow Jones Industrial average shed 443.96 points, or 0.96%, ending at 45,577.47. The S&P 500 fell 1.51% and closed at 6,506.48, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.01% and settled at 21,647.61. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined more than 2% and slipped into correction territory — that is, a 10% decline from its latest high. At their lows of the day, the Dow and Nasdaq traded in correction territory, but ultimately closed shy of the 10% threshold.

The moves come after Iran and Israel exchanged strikes overnight, while the former also launched new attacks against energy sites in the Persian Gulf region. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials, that the Pentagon is sending thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East. CBS News said “heavy preparations” were being made for sending ground troops to Iran, citing multiple sources.

The selling ramped up in the afternoon, after Reuters reported that Iraq has declared force ‌majeure on all oilfields ​operated ​by foreign ⁠companies. This caused oil prices to climb, with Brent crude topping $113 a barrel at its high of the day and WTI oil trading over $98 a barrel.

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.”

Meanwhile, fears that inflation is reigniting and that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are off the table pushed Treasury yields higher on Friday, further contributing to the stock market’s weakness.

The major averages posted their fourth losing week in a row. The S&P 500 has held up better than the other benchmarks, down just 7% from its recent high.

“It’s not unusual in the environment we’re in, with the amount of uncertainty we have, to have a 10% correction in any index,” said B. Riley’s Art Hogan. “So, to the extent that the S&P is broader and more diverse, it’s probably going to be the last to fall. But it’s also indicative of the fact that we’re in a very uncertain time.”

The selling was broad on Friday with tech leaders of the bull market seeing the biggest losses. Nvidia and Tesla lost 3% apiece. Few sectors were safe as rising yields also hit normally staid utilities.

Stock market today: Live updates

Three Weeks of War in the Middle East

March 20, 2026 at 9:49 PM GMT

Three weeks after the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran amid ongoing negotiations over its nuclear program, President Donald Trump has found himself in a situation very different from his earlier effort at regime change.

With thousands dead, a widening war, spiking oil prices and now destroyed energy infrastructure, he is seeking $200 billion from Congress to continue a conflict which Democrats and some Republicans are quick to note was one of choice, since there is no public evidence the US faced an imminent threat. The funding request also comes as the US surpasses $39 trillion in debt, with the latest $1 trillion added in the past five months.

Trump has nevertheless pledged to continue attacking, and left open the possibility of ground forces. (Late Friday, he said almost the opposite in a new turnabout.) But with none of his various stated goals reached—denuclearization, total defeat of Iran’s military or a popular uprising against a regime that’s killed thousands of its citizens in recent months—Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are left with an energy crisis, and one that appears to be getting worse. Iran, as it turns out, is not Venezuela. —David E. Rovella

Three Weeks of War in the Middle East: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

War’s Second Order Effects Are Starting to Slam the Economy

March 20, 2026 at 5:02 PM GMT

Almost three weeks into the war on Iran, markets are starting to price in the second order effects of entropy spreading through the world’s energy system. Investors have been underestimating the commodity shock rippling through the economy. Now, some are forecasting a stock rout. 
Take the knock-on effects from rising diesel fuel prices. Some truckers tell us they’re already adding a 5% transport surcharge to deliver consumer goods. That kind of inflationary activity has central bankers on edge and bond traders already forecasting a higher price on debt later in the year. It also raises the possibility of stagflation, as energy demand collides with physical shortages of feedstock and fuel. 

To be sure, policy makers are trying to react. We’re told Italy is attempting to purchase more natural gas from Algeria. Spain approved a €5 billion ($5.8 billion) aid package to ease the economic effects of the war. Refineries are paying huge premiums so they can continue making critical products like fertilizer. 

US President Donald Trump thought he could fight wars without becoming trapped by them, writes Becca Wasser in our Weekend Essay. Frustration with this situation boiled over today when Trump called his NATO allies “COWARDS’ in a social media post. As Iran continues to fight back, prolonging the conflict by lashing out against Gulf Arab states, the US president is learning the old Prussian military maxim: “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” --Jonathan Tirone

War’s Second Order Effects Are Starting to Slam the Economy - Bloomberg

Iran's blockade shakes global markets with $1 trillion supply shock

20 March 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important waterways, and a critical chokepoint for the world's energy supply. But three weeks since war engulfed the Middle East, the battered Iranian regime still maintains its iron grip on this 24–mile–wide maritime corridor. Now, a group of Austrian researchers have revealed how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could devastate global supply chains. According to their simulations, exports worth up to $1.2trillion (£893.5billion) could be affected if Iran keeps the Strait closed for an extended period. While short disruptions of around two weeks would have limited consequences, blockages longer than four weeks could trigger 'cascading issues'.

----The Energy Artery Severed

The study focused on five Gulf countries – Iran, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain – that ship entirely through the Strait. Using a simulation, the researchers modelled how a blockage would affect 10,000 tankers travelling between 1,315 ports around the world. Co–author Dr Jasper Verschuur, of Delft University of Technology, told the Daily Mail: 'What is unique about the Strait is that there are no alternatives to reroute goods. 'This makes it distinct from other strategic maritime passages like Suez, Malacca and Taiwan that "handle" large volumes, but have rerouting alternatives.' Currently, about 20 per cent of the world's oil is shipped through this narrow gap, making it the 'energy artery' for many countries. However, after Israel and the US began their aerial bombardment, Iran has brought this traffic to a standstill.

Iran's blockade shakes global markets with $1 trillion supply shock

Days after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran declared control of the Strait, trapping hundreds of ships in the Gulf. Since the start of the war, only a handful of vessels have managed to slip through, with at least 16 ships coming under attack, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO). This has already triggered spiking oil prices and sent shockwaves through the global economy, but the researchers warn that the situation could get worse. Dr Verschuur says that their modelling had pointed to the risk of a closure, but they 'certainly did not expect something so quickly and escalating as we see now'. The longer that Iran keeps the Strait closed, the deeper and more complex the disruption to supply chains will become.

More

Iran's blockade shakes global markets with $1 trillion supply shock

The Strait of Hormuz must be opened in days, not weeks, to avoid global recession risks – BofA head of research

Mar 19, 2026, 11:25 AM ET

The current Middle East conflict could escalate rapidly, potentially driving oil prices (CO1:COM), (CL1:COM) above $200 per barrel if disruptions persist for multiple months, according to Francisco Blanch, head of Commodities and Derivatives Research at Bank of America Global Research.

In an interview with CNBC, Blanch emphasized that high energy prices and supply disruptions are creating significant risks of a global recession, with current estimates showing an eight-percentage-point gap in global energy supplies.

Blanch identified two critical factors that must be addressed to prevent a global economic downturn: protecting critical energy infrastructure from further strikes and immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

“When I say quickly, I mean days, not weeks or months,” Blanch said, underscoring the urgency of the situation. He noted that roughly one percentage point of energy is needed for every percentage point of global GDP, making the current supply gap particularly alarming.

The analyst explained that soaring commodity prices are essentially forcing what he called “demand destruction” across the global economy.

“Demand destruction is essentially another term for economic activity contraction or recession, whichever way you want to call it,” Blanch stated.

Prices, he said, are serving as a signal to effectively force people and businesses out of their normal consumption patterns.

The crisis is already triggering widespread industrial and agricultural fallouts beyond the oil markets. Blanch pointed to factories in Asia shutting down on the petrochemical front, the Philippines moving to a four-day work week, and Thailand instructing workers to stay home, while overnight strikes at a GTL plant connected to fertilizer production are putting additional pressure on agriculture. Aluminum (SPGSIA), the most energy-intensive metal, is particularly vulnerable to the energy price surge.

While the U.S. is somewhat more insulated as a net energy exporter, Blanch cautioned that the situation remains “frail” for American consumers. Dubai crude has already spiked to $170 per barrel, and Japanese natural gas has reached $26 per MMBtu, though domestic measures like waiving the Jones Act are being implemented to mitigate impacts on U.S. consumers.

Blanch’s baseline scenario assumes a relatively quick resolution to the conflict, but he warned that a prolonged crisis would push prices even higher.

“We can see prices spiking over $200 a barrel as soon as the market believes that this can be a multi-month operation,” he said, adding that without the return of disrupted supplies, very high prices will be necessary to continue rationing global demand.

Strait of Hormuz must be opened in days, not weeks, to avoid global recession risks – BofA head of research | Seeking Alpha

Saudi Arabia Sees a Spike to $180 Oil if Energy Shock Persists Past April

Prices at such a level could trigger a recession or consumer changes that crush demand

March 19, 2026 9:00 pm ET

Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon—and they don’t like what they are seeing.

The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf’s biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April.

While that would sound like a bonanza for a kingdom still heavily leveraged to oil revenue, it is deeply concerning. Prices that high could push consumers into habits that slash their oil use—potentially for the long term—or trigger a recession that also hurts demand. They also would risk casting Saudi Arabia in the role of profiteer in a war it didn’t start.

“Saudi Arabia generally does not like too-rapid increases in oil, because that then creates long-term market instability,” said Umer Karim, an analyst of Saudi foreign policy and geopolitics with the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. “For Saudis, the ideal equation is a relatively modest increase in prices while their market share remains stable.”

Saudi Aramco, the country’s national oil company, which handles production, sales and pricing, declined to comment.

This week’s strikes targeting energy facilities have pushed oil prices higher. In retaliation for an Israeli strike Wednesday on Iran’s South Pars gas field, Tehran hit facilities in Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and attacked other Gulf infrastructure including Saudi facilities at Yanbu, the Red Sea end of a pipeline that can take crude around the chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran also continued to hit ships in the Gulf, extending a string of attacks that have all but shut the strait, the narrow conduit for 20% of the world’s oil shipments.

Attacks sent benchmark Brent futures as high as $119 a barrel before easing back Thursday. The contract’s all-time high, reached in July 2008, was $146.08. 

“$200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026,” analysts at energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie said.

Gulf futures tied to Oman crude, which are less liquid but which quickly reflect local supply disruptions, shot past $166 a barrel. Oman is a benchmark for much of the oil sold by Middle East producers such as Saudi Arabia, with tankers of physical crude priced at a fixed spread to the benchmark, which floats up and down each day with the market.

More

Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Sees a Spike to $180 Oil if Energy Shock Persists Past April - WSJ

This is an energy emergency: entire countries may run out of oil

The optimistic view is that Trump will chicken out and leave the Gulf to put out the fire that he has ignited

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard  Published 19 March 2026 6:11pm GMT

It is hard to decide which is the bigger disaster: the unfolding car crash in the global gas market or the mounting danger that entire countries will run out of oil.

The benchmark TTF contract for gas in Europe was €29 (£25) per megawatt-hour (MWh) in mid-February. Bank of America says it could reach €500 this winter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 10 weeks, as it may well do.

That would blow through the record high seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amount to a full-blown economic emergency for Europe, the UK, Japan, South Korea and South Asia.

The picture is dramatically worse after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, adding upstream gas and oil infrastructure to the menu of targets on both sides of the Gulf.

Iran’s missile retaliation on Qatar’s Ras Laffan has inflicted serious damage to the giant complex, which alone produces a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG).

It will be months before shipments start again. Qatar Energy says 17pc of production is lost for three to five years. It will have to declare force majeure on LNG supplies to Italy, Korea, China and Belgium.

It is just as bad for oil. The paper market that we all follow does not capture the drama. Physical deliveries are under far greater stress than Brent futures, at about $113, would suggest.

Actual barrels of the Dubai basket and Oman’s Murban are fetching close to $170 a barrel as Asian refiners scramble to buy anything they can. Jet fuel deliveries have hit $210 in Rotterdam and $240 in Singapore.

Kurt Barrow, the vice-president of oil at S&P Global Energy, says it may become physically impossible to obtain supplies. “If the Strait stays closed for two months, you’ll have plants without feedstock and we’ll get real rationing. We’ll have panic buying and hoarding,” he said.

More

This is an energy emergency: entire countries may run out of oil

'I predicted the 2008 financial crash - something worse could be coming'

20 March 2026

The 2008 financial crisis was among the most catastrophic and wide-reaching economic calamities in living memory. Sparked in early 2007 by irresponsible lending in the US housing market, it spread globally, intensifying an already severe recession and forcing government bailouts of financial institutions worldwide. Now former hedge fund employee Richard Bookstaber - who authored A Demon of Our Own Design, which forecast the impending crash in 2007 - suggests something more severe may be looming.

"We have returned to a period of risk," he writes in the New York Times, "one rife with the sort of pressures that have led to major financial crises. This time, the risks are spread across industries, markets and nations: artificial intelligence, the roughly $2 trillion private credit industry, stock markets, Taiwan and now Iran." Richard highlights that many of the borrowers underpinning the lending sector are software and technology firms - precisely the types of businesses, he argues, whose services could soon be superseded by AI.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, coupled with a long-threatened confrontation between the US and China in the South China Sea, will only further destabilise these sectors, he cautions.

"Take Iran," Richard writes. "An energy shock from the conflict that raises the cost of power or constrains its supply directly affects data centres and AI production." This will drive up costs for the AI infrastructure that increasing numbers of businesses are becoming reliant on, he warns.

There is also a mounting risk that China could act against Taiwan. The Chinese government has long maintained that Taiwan is its territory, and only a strong US military presence in the region has so far prevented action.

With the US potentially entangled in a protracted and costly conflict in Iran, Xi Jinping could decide that the moment is opportune to blockade or even invade the island.

That would have a catastrophic impact on AI-dependent businesses: a single Taiwanese company supplies more than 50% of the world's computer chips.

This would have "inevitable knock-on effects," Richard warns, noting that simultaneous conflicts in the Middle East - disrupting global oil supply - and in Taiwan - crippling the West's AI infrastructure - could inflict unprecedented damage on the global economy.

It is the growing interconnectedness of the world's economies, he says, that makes a fresh financial crisis more dangerous: "Our current financial system fails not because any one thing goes wrong. It fails because different shocks propagate through the same structure and in ways that are hard to anticipate," he writes.

"When something eventually goes wrong, it spreads faster than it can be contained."

Richard suggests that today's financial system could be even more vulnerable than in 2008: "The physical risks of Iran, Taiwan and the A.I. boom are supplanting the types of financial risks that preceded 2008," he stated. "I'd take financial risk any day. Financial risk moves just prices. Physical risk moves the world."

'I predicted the 2008 financial crash - something worse could be coming'

In other news, Iran.  88 million people, the 17^th largest country on planet Earth. Is America really ready to put troops into Iran to try to occupy it? How many and for how long? Approx. 28 minutes.

The Geography of Iran Explained.

The Geography of Iran Explained.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Recession fears grip markets as energy facilities come under fire in Middle East

March 19, 2026

Risk-off mode takes hold as attacks bring crisis to 'a more dangerous level for the global economy', analyst says

A recession mindset took hold among global investors after strikes on energy infrastructure in the Middle East heightened fears that disruption to production and distribution would keep oil prices elevated for longer, darkening the global economic outlook.

Crude prices staged a comeback on Thursday after Iran attacked a liquefied petroleum gas site in Qatar in retaliation for Israel's strikes on its South Pars gas field. Brent futures surged 5.5 per cent to US$113.53 a barrel in London, and contracts for West Texas Intermediate jumped 1 per cent to US$97.44.

"The attack on Qatari gas fields has taken the Gulf crisis to a more dangerous level for the global economy," said Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office, which advises family offices and ultra-high-net-worth investors. "Disruption to both oil and gas supplies is pushing prices higher and raises the risk of genuine fuel shortages that could materially crimp global growth."

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The outlook triggered a broad risk-off mode among investors, as the narrative following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz quickly shifted from energy shortage to supply disruption.

The US dollar index held up firmly at around 100, indicating investors were looking for safe havens, while stock markets saw sell-offs. After the S&P 500 sank 1.4 per cent overnight, the Hang Seng Index slid 2 per cent on Thursday, while the Shanghai Composite Index of yuan-denominated stocks closed 1.4 per cent lower after briefly dropping below the 4,000-point threshold.

Meanwhile, the yield on longer-dated US Treasuries edged higher, reflecting fears of resurgent inflation. Gold also retreated, with investors taking profits to cover margin calls linked to other asset classes.

Investors had barely priced in the threat of global recession before the escalation. Risk assets had remained relatively resilient on expectations that the US-Israel assault against Iran would end quickly. Even after Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz - a marine corridor responsible for about a fifth of the world's oil flows - investors stayed upbeat that it was simply a logistics snarl and would not evolve into a true energy crisis.

The attack on infrastructure facilities changed that mindset, forcing investors to take risks off the table as the challenge changed from re-routing ships to repairing physical damage, which could take weeks or even months, according to Stephen Innes, a managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

"The moment upstream Iranian energy assets were hit, the entire pricing framework flipped from logistics to geology," he said. "You can hedge a tanker delay, but you cannot hedge a wounded gas or oilfield. Tankers can be re-routed, and pipelines can become larger conduits for flow, but damaged production capacity has to be rebuilt, not redirected."

With oil trading above US$100 a barrel, global growth could be shaved by 0.4 percentage points while inflation could surge by 0.7 percentage points, according to economists.

The recession risk also increased after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled that a prolonged war would add more uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policies. Rates traders dialled back bets on the number of interest-rate reductions expected this year - to one from two - after the Fed stood pat on borrowing costs at the year's second policy meeting.

"Should the significant risk that the conflict drags on materialise, and oil remain well above US$100 per barrel for longer, the inflationary effects will feed through into a wider basket of goods, and we could be looking at the next Fed move being a hike later this year, not a cut," said Jon Butcher, an economist at Aberdeen Investments.

Recession fears grip markets as energy facilities come under fire in Middle East

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Ye olde English way of measuring alcohol content by “proof,” explained. Pour out a glass of scotch, gin, rum or brandy and start, you’ll probably need a stiff one.

Understanding British Imperial Proof Strength

February 13, 2022

I see a lot of questions about the old British “imperial proof” system. It confuses a lot of folks, which is understandable. Here’s an example: someone recently posted a picture of an old bottle. The label says “75% proof” as well as “43% ABV.”

In the American definition, the “proof” is twice the alcoholic strength by volume. In the case of the above bottle, twice 43% ABV is 86 proof.

Yet the label ways 75% proof. What gives?

This particular bottle was old enough that it used the imperial proof system. Let’s take a look at that system.

The Gravity of the Situation

The imperial proof system is one of those things that seems super complicated until you understand it, then it’s incredibly easy.

Rather than jump straight into proof math, let’s understand it conceptually. To do that, let’s momentarily look at something completely unrelated yet quite instructive.

Let’s talk about gravity. Scientists have technical terms and units to describe it, but we’re going to keep it simple. The earth we all live on has a gravitation pull downward. The gravitational pull is essentially the same anywhere we go on the earth’s surface. Let’s give that amount of gravity a name: “standard gravity.”

Now, if we teleport to the moon, we know the gravitational pull is less. But how can we describe how much less? Perhaps we might describe it as a percentage of the Earth’s standard gravity. A quick look at Wikipedia shows that the moon’s gravity is 16.5 percent of the Earth’s standard gravity.

Next, let’s zoom off to Jupiter, where we’ll weigh much more because Jupiter has a higher gravity than earth. How much more? Again, Wikipedia has the answer: 265% more than the earth, so 2.65 Earth standard gravities.

The important point here is that we’ve chosen a unit of measurement—the gravity of the earth—and we’ve expressed the gravity of other celestial bodies in units of that measurement.

With this in mind, we’re now better prepared to understand the imperial proof system.

What Your Proof?

Clear your mind of anything you know about the alcoholic strength of spirits. Forget about ABV; forget about “proof.”

Now, imagine that some global authority decides that their favorite spirit is the standard by which all other spirits should be measured. We shall call it the “reference spirit.” We have no idea what its alcoholic strength is, so we can only say it’s of “reference strength” — whatever that means.

Next, think about how we might describe the strength of another spirit. Luckily, we have a magic measuring device that can tell us the strength of any spirit relative to this reference strength.

With one spirit, our magic measuring device says that it’s 10% more than the reference spirit. We could say that spirit is “110% reference strength.”

For another spirit, the device declares it to be 70% of the reference strength. We could put “70% reference strength” on the label.

The parallels between units of gravity and units of “reference strength” are very simple to grasp.

As it just so happens, centuries ago, the British government actually declared a “reference strength.”

They called it “Proof strength.”

Understanding Proof Math

Without going deep into the history of British excise law, the British government didn’t use ABV way back in the day. Instead, they defined what “proof” meant. In modern terms, it was equivalent to 57.14% ABV.

Terms like “underproof” and “overproof” were percentages and relative to proof strength.

Let’s look at some examples:

10% overproof

110% of 57.14% ABV = 62.8% ABV.

75% Proof

75% of 57.14% ABV = 42.9% ABV

Navy Strength

Navy strength was defined as “4.5 percent (“degrees”) under proof”

100% – 4.5% = 95.5%

95.5% of 57.14% ABV = 54.5% ABV.

Yes, navy strength is not 57% ABV. Many brands have this wrong. Nor is it overproof. Technically, it was underproof.

Doing it the other way – 151 Rum

“151” strength rum is popular in cocktails. The “151” refers to its strength in the American proof system.

It’s also a great example for doing the math backward to convert from American proof or ABV to imperial proof.

151 American proof = 75.5% ABV.

75.5 is 32% more than 57.14: 75.5 / 57.14 = 1.32. Or 132%, if you prefer.

Thus, “151 rum” would be 132 imperial proof, or “32 percent overproof,” if you prefer.

Let’s Talk About “Overproof”

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Understanding British Imperial Proof Strength - Cocktail Wonk

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten Italian great.  Approx. 25 minutes but the opening 12 minute allegro is enough.

Gaetano Pugnani (1731-1798) - Concerto in re maggiore per due violini

Gaetano Pugnani (1731-1798) - Concerto in re maggiore per due violini - YouTube

Next, how Iran got a coup.  Approx.19 minutes.

How the US Turned Iran Into a Dictatorship: The 1953 Coup (Documentary)

How the US Turned Iran Into a Dictatorship: The 1953 Coup (Documentary) - YouTube

Finally, how the UAE plans to bypass the Strait of Hormuz once and for all.  Approx. 21 minutes.

UAE Is Wiping the Strait of Hormuz Off the Map and Building Its Own Secret Bypass

UAE Is Wiping the Strait of Hormuz Off the Map and Building Its Own Secret Bypass - YouTube

The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.

Murray Rothbard

US Diesel $5.00+ The Giant Global Bust Next.

Baltic Dry Index. 2057 -07      Brent Crude 107.60

Spot Gold  4707                           Spot Silver 73.30

US 2 Year Yield 3.79 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 39.011 trillion

US GDP 31.252 trillion.

In the Great Depression in which I grew up and remember vividly, unemployment was over 25 percent, and over 35 percent where I lived. A grown man would work all day, 16 hours, for a dollar. I remember hundreds of people walking by, people who had come down from the North just to get warm. They would come to our house as beggars even though they might have a college education. People didn't have money. They bartered; they'd trade eggs or pigs. It was just completely different.

Jimmy Carter

Who’s running the Gulf war? Donald Trump by his own admission says it’s not him.

Does it matter anyway? This unnecessary war has already gone on so long that a giant economic sell off is underway.

A global economic collapse is just getting started. Before it’s all over, a giant wave of business failures and 1930s style unemployment lies directly ahead.

Forget the private credit and commodity prices collapse now rolling through the global economy, we haven’t seen anything yet.

Asia markets trade mixed after Wall Street losses as Iran war dents risk sentiment

Published Thu, Mar 19 2026 7:56 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday, following volatile trading on Wall Street overnight, as the Middle East war and disruptions to energy supply keep investors jittery.

Iran attacked the world’s largest gas plant in Qatar on Thursday, causing damage to the energy supply for the next several years, in retaliation against Israel’s strikes on its South Pars gas field. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said the Iranian attacks had wiped out 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity for three to five years.

The tit-for-tat attacks on key oil and gas infrastructures across the Middle East sent energy prices soaring.

U.S. natural gas prices were last seen 1.5% higher, trading at $3.112 per million British thermal units. Front-month Nymex RBOB gasoline for April delivery, meanwhile, rose almost 1% to $3.13 and hit a nearly four-year high.

Oil prices retreated with the international benchmark Brent crude futures declining 2% to $106.45 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.56% to $94.64.

Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, expects prices to soar past $180 a barrel if the supply disruption persists until late April, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing country officials.

The market fallout from the regional war has also extended to metals, with gold and silver shedding around 5% and 10%, respectively, before paring losses.

“The recent drop in gold spot price on high volume suggests panic selling,” Ed Yardeni, veteran investor and president of Yardeni Research, said in a note Friday, expecting a bottom in the recent sell-off soon.

Signaling efforts at calming concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he was not deploying ground troops, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would refrain from repeating attacks on Iranian energy facilities.

U.S.-aligned countries, including Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Japan issued a joint statement expressing “our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait” of Hormuz.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 widened losses to 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.61% while mainland China’s CSI 300 index edged up 0.41%.

The Hang Seng tech index dropped 1.7%, with Xiaomi Corp as the largest dragger, falling as much as 6.8%. The sell-off came a day after the company launched an updated electric vehicle model and announced plans to invest over $8.7 billion in artificial intelligence development over the next three years.

China’s central bank held its benchmark lending rates steady for a 10th month on Monday, with the five-year loan prime rates at 3.5% and the one-year rate at 3%.

South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi rose 0.64% while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 1.68%. Japan’s markets were closed for a public holiday.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.44% to 46,021.43 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.27% to end the session at 6,606.49 points, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.28% to 22,090.69.

Futures tied to the 30-stock index were up 111 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures gained roughly 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2%, after Wall Street fell overnight.

The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged earlier this week, with Chair Jerome Power cautioning that the economic outlook remains uncertain as hostilities continued in the Middle East.

Asia markets trade mixed after Wall Street losses as Iran war dents risk sentiment

Government bonds face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles Europe’s central banks

Published Thu, Mar 19 2026 12:03 PM EDT Updated Thu, Mar 19 2026 12:30 PM EDT

Europe’s sovereign bonds are facing “a perfect storm” after new inflation fears sparked by the Iran conflict forced the region’s central banks to signal a new course for interest rates on Thursday, sending yields soaring.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, with the European Central Bank also holding steady on borrowing costs, as the economic impact of soaring energy costs hangs over rate-setters.

Yields on 10-Year Gilts, the benchmark for U.K. government debt, rose more than 13 basis points to 4.871% — a new 52-week high on Thursday — before easing.  The yield on 2-Year Gilts, which are typically more sensitive to rates decisions, immediately surged 39 basis points in the biggest rise since former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ‘Mini Budget’ in September 2022.  They were last seen 27 basis points higher, at 4.378%.

French, German and Italian bonds saw less severe selling pressure, but yields rose across the continent.

Market strategists say the BoE’s move — a unanimous call by its nine-member monetary policy committee — effectively ends hopes of any further rate cuts this year and dramatically shifts the policy outlook from where it was just two weeks ago.

Tactical trading

Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors, said that the chances of a rate hike from the BoE over the coming months have increased.

“With this in mind, from an asset allocation perspective, we could start to see investors tactically adding overweights in gilts in the short-term, with at least one hike expected later in the year as of today,” Hutchings said.

Matthew Amis, investment director, rates management at Aberdeen Investments, described the unfolding environment as a “perfect storm” for Europe’s sovereign bond markets.

“Energy prices spiking higher and the Bank of England opening the door to potential rate hikes have seen gilts spike higher. German bunds are the relative calm in this storm but are still pushing 3% due to similar inflation fears,” Amis told CNBC via email.

“Gilts and bunds are pricing in a much longer conflict than other markets, focusing on the inflation surge with markets yet to focus on the potential negative impact on growth.”

Meanwhile, the ECB’s next move will now likely be a hike, according to Simon Dangoor, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income and head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

More

Bond markets face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles central banks

Qatar Assesses Damage as Energy Strikes Escalate

March 19, 2026 at 5:27 PM GMT

Iran’s attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas field will have repercussions for energy supplies, Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said during a presser in Doha.

The damaged facilities produce about 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas export capacity. It will take three to five years to repair the damage, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said in an interview with Reuters. The LNG plant had already halted production after a previous drone strike but the subsequent attacks dealt more damage.

Iran stepped up attacks on energy assets after US President Donald Trump called for restraint. The price of oil and natural gas jumped amid the escalating attacks that are leading to long-term damage to major energy facilities.  

Israel came in for a rare public rebuke from Trump over an airstrike yesterday on Iran’s South Pars gas field. In a social media post, he asserted that Israel acted without Washington’s knowledge. 

The UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands issued a joint statement calling on Iran to stop attacks on energy sites and other civilian infrastructure. They also called for an end to the shipping gridlock in the Strait of Hormuz.  

Speaking at the White House this afternoon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is looking to remove sanctions on Iranian oil as part of efforts to reduce energy prices. It would be a stunning reversal of US policy that used sanctions as a way to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. — Jennifer Duggan

Qatar Assesses Damage as Energy Strikes Escalate - Bloomberg

Targeting of Gas Fields Escalates Iran War

After Israel targeted an Iranian gas field, Iran responded by targeting one in Qatar, further destabilizing the energy landscape.

March 19, 2026 at 10:13 PM GMT

The Iran war has begun to escalate in recent days after Israel targeted an Iranian gas field and Iran responded by targeting one in Qatar, further destabilizing the global energy landscape.

The Iranian missile strike on the Ras Laffan complex caused extensive damage to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant. Two facilities that produce 17% of the country’s LNG exports, or about 13 millions tons a year, were affected and it will take three to five years to repair them, QatarEnergy Chief Executive Officer Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said his country would avoid future attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, after a fissure appeared to open up between him and Donald Trump, with the US president saying he had no prior knowledge of the attack. Israeli officials reportedly said he did. —David E. Rovella

Gas Field Targeting Escalates War: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

European Central Bank holds rates steady, warns outlook is ‘significantly more uncertain’

Published Thu, Mar 19 2026 2:00 AM EDT Updated Thu, Mar 19 2026 10:24 AM EDT

The European Central Bank opted to keep interest rates on hold at its latest monetary policy meeting, saying the war in Iran has made the outlook “significantly more uncertain”.

Policymakers said the conflict had created “upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth,” prompting traders to up bets on potential ECB rate hikes later this year.

The ECB said the ongoing conflict “will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices”, while its medium-term implications would depend “both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.”

Regional central banks, the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and Swiss National Bank, also opted to keep rates on hold on Thursday, as the war continues to cloud the outlook for inflation and growth.

Before the war on Iran began in late February, Europe’s central banks enjoyed a more benign inflation outlook as interest rates looked set to remain stable or keep falling across the region.

But the conflict has upset the economic equilibrium, threatening Europe’s energy supplies, growth and the outlook for consumer prices. Expectations for interest rates across the continent have been upended.

The ECB was not expected to change stance on its benchmark interest rate even before the war began, with euro zone inflation data remaining near the central bank’s 2% target. The latest flash data from Eurostat showed inflation in the euro zone rose to 1.9% in February, up from 1.7% in January.

The central bank on Thursday revised medium-term inflation expectations upwards. Headline inflation is now expected to average 2.6% in 2026, 2% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. It blamed a rise in energy prices for the revisions. In December, the ECB had said it expected headline inflation to be just shy of 2% in 2026 and 2027, before increasing to its target of 2% in 2028.

At the central bank’s last meeting in February, ECB President Christine Lagarde had repeated a mantra that the euro zone’s economic outlook was “in a good place” but warned against complacency. Her caution now appears to be well-founded. Addressing reporters at the post-announcement press conference, Lagarde rowed back on her previous “good place” comments.

“We are starting from a good base, so I’m not saying we are in a good place, [I’m saying] we are both well-positioned and well-equipped to deal with the development of a major shock that is unfolding,” she told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.

Bank of England

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted “unanimously” keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 3.75% on Thursday.

Before the war in Iran erupted in late February, the BOE had been expected to cut its key interest rate, known as ‘Bank Rate,’ at its March meeting, but the conflict has sent global energy prices soaring,

“Conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in global energy and other commodity prices, which will affect households’ fuel and utility prices and have indirect effects via businesses’ costs,” the BOE said in a statement.

“Prior to this, there had been continued disinflation in domestic prices and wages. CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the new shock to the economy,” the BOE warned.

The BOE said its policymakers are “alert to the increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures through second-round effects in wage and price-setting, the risk of which will be greater the longer higher energy prices persist.”

The MPC said it was also assessing the implications for inflation, which prior to the war it had expected to decline toward its 2% target, and of the weakening in economic activity that is likely to result from higher energy costs.

London’s FTSE 100 extended losses following the decision, and was down 2.5% at midday London time.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt, or bond, was up 14 basis points at 4.874%, while the interest rate on the 2-year gilt was 20 basis points higher at 4.31%.

“Most central banks are facing the same challenging backdrop, but the trade-offs are not equal. The Bank of England’s are uniquely British: stubborn inflation, a weakening jobs market, and little fiscal wiggle room,” Madison Faller, Global Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. commented Thursday.

“Unlike the U.S., buoyed by solid growth, or Europe, which has made real progress on disinflation, the BOE is walking a tightrope between supporting a sluggish economy and not letting inflation run amok.”

Just weeks ago, markets were betting on two rate cuts; now, they’re bracing for up to two hikes this year, Faller added.

Swiss National Bank

The Swiss National Bank kept its main policy rate on hold at 0.00% on Thursday, with the central bank stating that its “willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased” in the context of the Middle East conflict.

Doing so, if necessary, would counter any “rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardize price stability in Switzerland,” the SNB said.

Asked if there was a “trigger point” at which the SNB would intervene in FX markets, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel told CNBC Thursday that policymakers were “looking at monetary policy every quarter, and there we decide on the use of our tools, which is the interest rate and also FX interventions.”

More

ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank interest rate decisions

Government bonds face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles Europe’s central banks

Published Thu, Mar 19 2026 12:03 PM EDT

Europe’s sovereign bonds are facing “a perfect storm” after new inflation fears sparked by the Iran conflict forced the region’s central banks to signal a new course for interest rates on Thursday, sending yields soaring.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, with the European Central Bank also holding steady on borrowing costs, as the economic impact of soaring energy costs hangs over rate-setters.

Yields on 10-Year Gilts, the benchmark for U.K. government debt, rose more than 13 basis points to 4.871% — a new 52-week high on Thursday — before easing.  The yield on 2-Year Gilts, which are typically more sensitive to rates decisions, immediately surged 39 basis points in the biggest rise since former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ‘Mini Budget’ in September 2022.  They were last seen 27 basis points higher, at 4.378%.

French, German and Italian bonds saw less severe selling pressure, but yields rose across the continent.

Market strategists say the BoE’s move — a unanimous call by its nine-member monetary policy committee — effectively ends hopes of any further rate cuts this year and dramatically shifts the policy outlook from where it was just two weeks ago.

Tactical trading

Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors, said that the chances of a rate hike from the BoE over the coming months have increased.

“With this in mind, from an asset allocation perspective, we could start to see investors tactically adding overweights in gilts in the short-term, with at least one hike expected later in the year as of today,” Hutchings said.

Matthew Amis, investment director, rates management at Aberdeen Investments, described the unfolding environment as a “perfect storm” for Europe’s sovereign bond markets.

“Energy prices spiking higher and the Bank of England opening the door to potential rate hikes have seen gilts spike higher. German bunds are the relative calm in this storm but are still pushing 3% due to similar inflation fears,” Amis told CNBC via email.

“Gilts and bunds are pricing in a much longer conflict than other markets, focusing on the inflation surge with markets yet to focus on the potential negative impact on growth.”

Meanwhile, the ECB’s next move will now likely be a hike, according to Simon Dangoor, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income and head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

“The governing council is clearly sensitive to upside inflation risks, but will likely look to assess potential second-round effects before making a move,” Dangoor said. “A hike is therefore possible later in 2026; however, the ECB stands ready to act sooner if the situation deteriorates.”

‘An economic Dunkirk’

Energy prices continued their upward advance Thursday, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, hitting $111.10, a 3.5% rise, while natural gas prices also traded higher.

Europe has sought to diversify its energy mix following 2022′s price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the continent remains a net importer of both oil and gas.

“Yields are waking up to the economic Dunkirk that faces the global economy thanks to the war in Iran,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, told CNBC via email. “Investors will demand higher borrowing costs from countries throughout Europe as the outlook darkens. And this is just with Brent at $110.”

More

Bond markets face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles central banks

In other news, is WW3 next? As the USA and Britain help Ukraine kill Russians in Ukraine and in Russia via missiles, intelligence and sea drones, Russia repays in kind in the Persian Gulf war. Who’d have thought it?

Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran

Moscow has expanded intelligence sharing and military cooperation to help keep Tehran in the fight against U.S. and Israeli military might

Updated March 17, 2026 4:07 pm ET

Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of U.S. forces in the region, people familiar with the matter said.

Russia is trying to keep its closest Middle Eastern partner in the fight against U.S. and Israeli military might and prolong a war that is benefiting Russia militarily and economically.

The technology provided includes components of modified Shahed drones, which are meant to improve communication, navigation and targeting, the people said. Russia has also been drawing on its experience using drones in Ukraine, offering tactical guidance on how many drones should be used in operations and what altitudes they should strike from, said the people, who included a senior European intelligence officer.

Russia has been providing Iran with the locations of U.S. military forces in the Middle East as well as those of its regional allies, The Wall Street Journal has reported. That cooperation has deepened in early days of the war, with Russia recently providing satellite imagery directly to Iran, said two of the people, the officer and a Middle Eastern diplomat.

The assistance is similar to intelligence the U.S. and European allies have given to Ukraine in recent years, analysts say. 

More

Exclusive | Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran - WSJ

How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive

From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support

March 18, 2026 10:08 am ET

China is a longstanding friend of Iran that has helped sustain the Islamic Republic through decades of sanctions and international isolation. 

Since the U.S. and Israeli militaries began striking Iran late last month, Beijing has offered Tehran limited public support, condemning the killing of the Iranian leadership while calling on all sides to stop fighting. But its longstanding support for Iran could grow increasingly critical as the war continues.

Here’s a look at how Beijing has sustained Tehran in recent years.

Oil sales to China

China is Iran’s most important economic partner. Roughly 90% of Iran’s 1.6 million barrels a day of crude oil exports are sold to China, providing Tehran with the equivalent of tens of billions of dollars of revenue each year.

China buys Iranian crude to support its ally and because it gets the oil at a market discount. Analysts estimate Iranian oil makes up 12% of China’s total oil imports. The crude is mostly bought by small, independent Chinese refineries known as “teapots,” whose import quotas are regulated by Beijing.

China doesn’t accept the legitimacy of U.S. sanctions but wants to maintain plausible deniability since Beijing fears its companies could be subject to U.S. penalties should they engage publicly with sanctioned oil.

Beijing encourages the purchase of Iranian oil by the independent refineries, rather than its state-owned oil giants, since the smaller companies are unconnected to international financial markets and would thus be unaffected by potential U.S. sanctions. The origin of the crude is often masked by brokers.

Shadow banking

Iran manages a complex, clandestine shadow-banking network globally that is facilitated by China, U.S. officials allege. China’s teapot refiners pay for Iranian oil in the Chinese currency, the yuan, and Tehran uses some of the money to buy products in China that are then shipped to Iran.

Some of the oil revenue is used as part of a barter-like system in which Chinese oil buyers shift money to state-backed Chinese companies to build infrastructure in Iran. Money from oil sales also moves through a web of front companies, often routed through Chinese financial institutions, to Hong Kong, before it is then converted into other currencies.

Much of the cash from oil sales to China remains in bank accounts abroad, in financial hubs such as Hong Kong, Dubai and Singapore, according to U.S. officials. Iranian importers and exporters then trade foreign currency among their various front companies on ledgers maintained in Iran. Hong Kong has denied it is used for sanctions evasion.

Weapons and rocket fuel

China was once an important supplier of arms to Iran during its war with Iraq in the 1980s, but it ceased approving weapons deals shortly before Beijing joined U.N. sanctions on Iran in 2007, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

According to U.S. officials, Chinese companies continued, however, to be a critical supplier of goods with potential military applications, such as motors that have been used in Iran’s Shahed drones, chemicals for rocket fuels and electronics for an array of weapons. China-based commercial satellite firms have participated in business exchanges with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Pentagon said in December.

Last year, two ships linked to an Iranian state company left China loaded with 1,000 tons of a material that could be used to make a main ingredient for a solid propellant of some 260 midrange missiles, The Wall Street Journal has reported. In mid-2025, Iran ordered thousands of tons of missile fuel ingredients from China, according to Journal reporting. The Chinese government has said it is unaware of specific orders but maintains strict control on so-called dual-use items that have both civilian and military applications.

More

How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive - WSJ

This Emirati billionaire put a voice to Gulf anger over Trump’s war in Iran

March 18, 2026

DUBAI — Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor, a 77-year-old billionaire, says his staff think he talks too much.

Sitting outside a cafe in Al Habtoor City, the luxury waterfront complex in Dubai that is home to three of his five-star hotels, he laughed a little and looked at his personal assistant sitting next to him. She nodded, offering something between a smile and a grimace.

Al Habtoor, an eccentric, outspoken businessman whose net worth Forbes puts at $2.3 billion, went viral the week before with a public letter that lambasted President Donald Trump for his “dangerous decision” to “drag our region into a war.”

“Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? And on what basis did you make this dangerous decision?” Al Habtoor wrote in a lengthy post on X. “Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger? And did you consider that the first to suffer from this escalation will be the countries of the region itself!”

The post ricocheted around the internet, racking up millions of views and thousands of shares, was featured on CNN and earned Al Habtoor praise across the world. “Literally, everyone in the Gulf is asking this question, quietly,” wrote Middle East expert Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies.

Al Habtoor’s post captured the frustrations of an awkward and frightening inflection point for Persian Gulf nations that have built reputations of wealth and stability. Dragged into a conflict they sought to avoid, they are now trying to fend off drones and missile attacks by Iran but are uncomfortable being too closely aligned with Israel or the United States. Publicly, officials in the largely repressive Gulf monarchies blame Iran. Privately, many rail against Washington for unleashing chaos but see no other power able to provide the same security benefits.

In the weeks since the war on Iran started, retaliatory airstrikes by Tehran have rained fire on these normally tranquil, sun-soaked nations. The United Arab Emirates has experienced the biggest barrage, with luxury hotels, the Dubai International Airport and oil infrastructure all coming under attack in the days before Al Habtoor’s team hit send on the letter to Trump.

Within days, however, the post, which went live on March 5, disappeared.

More

This Emirati billionaire put a voice to Gulf anger over Trump’s war in Iran

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75%published at 12:00

12:00Breaking Archie Mitchell Business reporter

The Bank of England has voted to hold interest rates at 3.75%.

This decision was widely expected since war broke out in Iran.

As recently as February, economists had widely expected further cuts to interest rates this year amid falling inflation.

But fears the conflict will drive a renewed period of higher inflation in the UK prompted the Bank to put any further cuts on hold.

What an interest rate hold means for your financespublished at 12:03

12:03 Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

Rate-setters at the Bank of England have adopted a wait and see approach with a hold in the benchmark rate. Many people may take the same approach with their own finances.

Before the Iran war, analysts had expected the Bank rate to have been cut this time. The economic impact of the war has changed all that.

So, borrowing money is not now getting cheaper for individuals. In terms of mortgages, rates on news fixed deals have been rising as lenders reassess the situation and their own funding costs go up.

For savers, a few better deals have emerged. But, ultimately, caution dominates, so there is not much competition.

With millions facing the prospect of higher energy prices this summer, experts say it is ever more important to seek guidance, be clear about your own budget, and to make considered decisions.

Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% - live updates - BBC News

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

With the Gulf war heating up and the price of energy soaring again, time to look into solar panels?

How much money can solar panels really save on my energy bills?

18 March 2026

If you are trying to work out whether solar panels are worth it for your home, the answer depends on more than the headline price of a system. For most households, the appeal is clear: lower electricity costs, less reliance on the grid and, over time, a chance to generate a meaningful return on the upfront investment. But calculating those savings is not always straightforward.

How much you save will depend on several factors, including the cost of solar panels, how much electricity your home uses, when you use it, and whether you are paid for exporting surplus power back to the grid. Any solar panel grants or financing support can also affect the overall picture.

In general, UK homeowners can expect solar panels to pay for themselves in around 8 to 13 years, depending on system size, roof orientation, local sunlight levels, and how much electricity they use during the day. After that, a well-performing system can continue to deliver years of significantly lower electricity costs, making solar one of the more compelling long-term home energy upgrades.

How much can solar panels save on energy bills?

How much energy your solar panels generate depends on the size of the system you install, but the table below shows typical outputs for various system sizes.

There are a lot of variables to account for. In the table, we use an address in London, assuming a family of three and typical use (no heat pumps, high daytime usage or electric car charging).

Other assumptions include no shading on the panels, someone at home using electricity for roughly half the day, and an export rate such as Octopus’s 15p per kilowatt hour Outgoing Octopus tariff. Other than a new inverter, no other maintenance costs are assumed, and the use of savings rather than a loan is factored in. The roof is roughly south-east facing.

Much will depend on what price you get for your exported electricity. Tariffs vary widely. If you keep on top of things, however, you should be able to get the 15p per kilowatt hour rate we use below.

---- As you can see, with a bigger system you can be making instant savings. When calculating how much solar panels can save there are, of course, a number of variables to consider, but with a 5.4kW system you could potentially cover most of your annual electricity usage and even generate a modest surplus — around £70 per year, under ideal conditions.

Naturally these numbers will vary from year to year. Sunny years where you use more of your own power will see better returns. Less sunny periods and using more grid power mean it will take longer to recoup your money.

So, how much do solar panels save in real terms? It depends on your usage, location and how much energy you’re able to consume during the day.

These numbers also rely on there being no downtime. If your inverter breaks and you don’t notice for a few days, those are lost days with no power being used or stored.

Luckily the Energy Saving Trust has a neat tool you can use to work out how much you could save and how long it will take to recoup your investment.

More

How much money can solar panels really save on my energy bills?

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

In the weekend LIR, how the UAE and the Saudis intend to by-pass the Strait of Hormuz once and for all. But it’s likely too little too late.

Another weekend and another unnecessary Gulf war weekend at that. Time to reopen the UK’s North Sea sector for oil and gas exploration. Have a great weekend everyone.

No one can possibly have lived through the Great Depression without being scarred by it. No amount of experience since the depression can convince someone who has lived through it that the world is safe economically.

Isaac Asimov