Baltic Dry Index. 2079 + 60 Brent Crude 67.03
Spot Gold 3644 US 2 Year Yield 3.54 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 37.461 trillion
US GDP 30.256 trillion.
A US official told Axios that the Trump administration was only notified after the Israeli attack was launched and missiles were in the air – leaving the US no opportunity to weigh in.
----The extent of the
damage and the number of casualties are not yet clear. It is the first known
Israeli strike on Qatar, which hosts one of America’s largest air bases in the
Middle East.
Follow the latest here ➤
With Israel’s trumping of Trump well covered in mainstream media and its implications for the Middle East, we will stick to the US and global economy.
In stocks, more frontrunning a widely anticipated US interest rate cut.
In the US actual economy more employment weakness.
Later today, the first of the week’s US inflation reports.
I’m in Warren Buffett’s camp. This AI led stocks bubble is a good time to be selling out.
Asia-Pacific markets track Wall Street gains as
Fed rate-cut hopes rise
Published Tue, Sep 9 2025 7:58 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rose Wednesday,
tracking gains on Wall Street, as hopes for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve
rose, while investors also assessed August inflation data from China.
Consumer prices in China fell
0.4% year over year in August, according to data from the National Bureau
of Statistics released Wednesday, missing expectations of a 0.2% drop by
economists polled by Reuters.
Meanwhile, the producer price index fell
2.9% year over year, in line with expectations and improving from the 3.6% drop
in July.
Shares of Asian tech firms part of Apple’s supply chain traded higher
after it launched new iPhones, watches and AirPods on Tuesday. Taiwan-based
iPhone maker Foxconn rose
1.2% and Samsung
Electronics increased 1.4%. However, investors seemed unimpressed by
Apple’s latest lineup, with shares of the Cupertino-based company closing 1.48%
lower.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark climbed
0.72%, while the Topix index rose 0.53%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
0.16% higher.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.22%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced
1.16% to its highest level since late 2021, while the Hang Seng Tech index was
up 1.76%.
Hong Kong-listed shares of Alibaba Group pared gains
to rise 2.1%, after hitting a near-four-year high earlier in the session. This
comes after Chinese humanoid startup X Square Robot announced that it has
secured around $100 million in a funding round led by Alibaba Cloud.
South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.5% to
its highest level since the end of 2021. The country’s seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.6% in August compared with July’s
2.5%, according to government data. The small-cap Kosdaq rose
0.53%.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index rose
0.81%, recovering from its three-session losing streak. The index closed 1.78%
lower in the previous session after President Prabowo Subianto unexpectedly
dismissed Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati late Monday.
The Indonesian rupiah strengthened 0.15%
to 16,446, after retreating over 1% in the previous session.
Meanwhile, Singapore’s Straits Times Index
jumped 1% to a new record high at 4,341.32.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 opened 0.42%
higher, while the Sensex index rose 0.5%.
U.S. equity futures rose slightly in early
Asian hours, as traders looked ahead to the release of the latest producer
price index Wednesday stateside and the consumer price index data on Thursday,
which will offer more insight into the impact of inflation on the economy.
Overnight, all three key benchmarks in the
U.S. closed at all-time highs as investors moved past concerns about
disappointing jobs data and bet on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The S&P 500 index settled up
0.27% at 6,512.61, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 0.37% to end the day at 21,879.49, with the latter
hitting a new all-time intraday high as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished
up 196.39 points, or 0.43%, at 45,711.34, thanks to a surge in UnitedHealth shares.
Asia-Pacific
markets track Wall Street gains as Fed rate-cut hopes rise
More Bad US Unemployment News Spurs Dimon Warning
September 9, 2025 at 11:40 PM GMT+1
The US economy has been worse for American
workers than previously thought, according to new data from the federal
government. Revised numbers show job growth has been far
less robust than reported earlier, the latest in more than a week of
almost-daily reports showing the nation’s economic stamina wavering.
The number of workers on payrolls will
likely be revised down by 911,000 for the 12 months through March—or almost
76,000 less each month on average—according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. “The economy is weakening,”
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said on CNBC. “Whether
that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
Last week, US unemployment was shown to
have risen to 4.3%, the worst level of joblessness since the height of the
pandemic, with the economy buffeted by uncertainty and rising costs tied to
President Donald Trump’s trade war. Those figures added weight to the prior
month’s jobs report, which showed a shockingly cooler hiring picture
than previously thought. Trump fired the BLS commissioner as a result.
Meanwhile, that very agency faces
a staffing
crisis: A third of the high-level roles at the BLS are vacant. While the
commissioner role has been temporarily filled, a range of other leadership
positions that oversee various aspects of employment statistics and regional
field operations sit empty. —Jordan
Parker Erb and David
E. Rovella
More
Bad US Unemployment News Spurs Dimon Warning: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
China’s consumer prices fall more than expected in
August as deflation woes persist
Published Tue, Sep 9 2025 9:42 PM EDT
China’s consumer prices fell more than
expected in August while deflation in wholesale prices persisted, as calls
mounted for Beijing to ramp up measures to bolster sluggish domestic demand and
cushion weakening exports growth.
The consumer price index dipped 0.4% last month from a year earlier, according
to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Wednesday, compared
with Reuters-polled economists’ forecast for a 0.2% contraction.
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food
and energy prices, rose 0.9% from a year earlier, the highest since February
2024, according to Wind Information. Household appliances and the clothing
categories saw notable price gains of 4.6% and 1.9%, respectively.
The producer price index dropped 2.9% in
August from a year ago, in line with economists’ estimates and has stayed flat
on a month-on-month basis.
Chinese authorities said that headline CPI
had slipped into negative territory largely due to the high-base last year and lower food prices, while
crediting the narrower decline in producer prices in part to Beijing’s efforts
in regulating the excessive price competition.
The drop in food prices deepened to 4.3%
in August compared to 2.7% in July, with pork, fresh vegetable and fruit prices
experiencing wider declines.
Deflation in consumer durables, which
could serve as a better guide to gauge the broader price pressures, deepened to
3.7% last month, from 3.5% in July, according to the estimates by Zichun Huang,
China economist at Capital Economics, who said the level of deflation was more
severe than seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
While underlying inflation has ticked up,
the data mostly reflected “temporary factors rather than any meaningful
improvement in underlying supply-demand imbalances,” added Huang.
More
China's
consumer prices fall more than expected in August as deflation woes persist
In other news.
"Just Got My First Tariff Bill": People
Are Sharing How The "Trump Tax" Is Showing Up In Their Lives
Tue, September 9, 2025 at 4:16 AM GMT+1
1.On August 29, President Trump's
executive order ending the de minimis rule took
effect,
which means that more Americans are now seeing his tariffs in action. De
minimis previously excluded shipments valued under $800 from being subject to
these import taxes, like the small shipments many people order every day from
online retailers. A representative for the Consumer Federation of America told
NPR that around 4 million de minimis orders were processed in a typical day.
According to data from the
Yale Budget Lab, the tariffs have brought in $88 billion in revenue this year
so far, with $23 billion of that coming in just August alone. Despite Trump's
repeated claims that other countries will eat the cost of the tariffs, tariffs
are ultimately charged to the
importers in the US, and companies are expected to pass these extra costs along
to the consumer.
2.Now, consumers like the redditor
who posted the
screenshot below are on the hook for paying tariffs and processing fees.
This poster wrote, "Being charged $54
in tariffs for a $100 jacket from Japan. Insane fees. $36.50 of it is the
actual tariffs, and the rest is DHL fees. So, being charged over 36% for a
jacket that was made in the USA, just being sold by a Japanese eBay seller. The
new tariffs are so awful for commerce. The job of government is supposed to be
to facilitate commerce. What a joke. But at least our lord and savior Donald
Christ gets a bigger pot of money to grift and siphon from our government and
economy and into his pocket."
3.Here's another example of an order that
would have previously come in under the de minimis rule that is now subject to
tariffs. This order, totalling $42 from a coffee accessory company based in
Taiwan, led to an additional charge of $29.25 from DHL.
Most imports from Taiwan are currently
subject to a 20%
tariff,
so if you're good at math, you might be thinking, "Wait, why is the DHL
import duty charge so high?" Well, shipping companies like DHL, UPS, and
FedEx also
charge consumers
fees for processing the paperwork involved in paying tariffs. This means that
the end cost of paying a tariff on a small online order may be much larger than
you anticipate.
4.Some companies have integrated the cost
of tariffs into their checkout carts to avoid these surprise costs. A Reddit
user shared the
screenshot below that they came across while doing some early Christmas
shopping.
The tariff fees are listed in the cart as
"duties," but the user has labeled them "Trump Tax." Some
sites have labeled the tariffs as "import fees" or "import
taxes." This Reddit user wrote, "Tariffs
are a tax on consumers like anyone and everyone who so much as happened to
stand next to a basic economics textbook is aware, and MAGA is a confederacy of
morons for buying into Cheetolini's weird fantasy that 'trillions are pouring
into our country.'"
More
"Just Got My
First Tariff Bill": People Are Sharing How The "Trump Tax" Is
Showing Up In Their Lives
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
Fed Will Cut Rates Next Week. Thursday’s Consumer Inflation Reading Could
Suggest It Shouldn’t.
September
8, 2025
Global
investors will get some important
news on employment and inflation in the U.S. this week, which likely
will stoke concerns the world’s largest economy is facing its biggest
stagflation risk since the early 1980s.
Stagflation,
commonly defined as a period of slowing growth, quickening inflation, and
rising unemployment, largely has been absent from the U.S. economy since the
late 1970s. That’s largely the result of long downward trajectories in both
consumer price pressures and headline unemployment over the past four decades.
Even
during the worst of the Covid pandemic, which ultimately lifted the consumer
price index to as high as 9.1% and headline unemployment briefly past 14%, the
economy continued to grow, and stagflation was avoided.
The
numbers coming this week aren’t going to indicate anything that extreme, but
they are likely to present an even tougher challenge for both investors—and the
Federal Reserve—over the coming year.
“The
combination of higher tariffs and immigration restrictions driving a labor
supply shock are a recipe for a mild stagflation,” said Bank of America
economists, led by Claudio Irigoyen, in a recent client note.
The
Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish revisions to its official jobs data on
Tuesday, with economists expecting it will lope around 750,000 from the overall
total for the 12 months ended in March. (The BLS publishes an annual benchmark
revision of nonfarm payroll estimates around five months after the April to
March measuring period, using unemployment insurance data from each state to
create a more accurate total. It then produces a final revision about five
months later).
Paired
with a weaker-than-expected
nonfarm payrolls report for August, the BLS revision will reset economists’
assessment of labor market strength heading into the autumn.
The
softer job readings will be complicated by the CPI inflation report from the
BLS, expected Thursday, which could show core price pressures accelerating at
3.1% pace. That’s well above the Fed’s 2% target and would match the highest
rate since February.
Samuel
Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, sees the personal
consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rising to 3.3%
by the end of the year amid tariff pressures. Headline unemployment, he said in
a note published Sunday, could hit 4.75% by the first quarter of next year.
Growth
prospects,
meanwhile, remained mixed.
The
Institute for Supply Management’s benchmark reading of economic activity in the
services sector, the most-important driver of GDP growth, expanded for a third
straight month in August. But hiring continued to slow and tariff price hikes
boosted input costs.
The
pace of GDP growth over the first half of the year already is around half of
what it was in the back half of 2024, however, and is likely to remain muted
late into 2026, according to Wall Street forecasts.
All
of this puts the Fed, which is now facing unprecedented pressure from the White
House to lower interest rates, in an increasingly challenging position. If it
reduces borrowing costs too quickly, it could stoke inflation pressures. Moving
too slowly could further damage the labor market. The central bank will make
its decision on interest rates on Sept. 17.
That’s
also being reflected by movements in both the bond and commodities markets.
Longer-date
bond yields have fallen more slowly than yields on short-dated paper, which
react to interest rate changes. The moves suggests investors are demanding more
protection from the effects of rising inflation.
Gold
prices, meanwhile, continue
to hit all-time highs as
investors worry that faster inflation and slowing growth will further debase
the value of the U.S. dollar.
Doug
Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, sees parallels to the
financial crisis that began in 2007.
“In
both cases, a prolonged slump in housing and a deteriorating labor market
provided the Fed cover to cut rates while leading indicators of inflation were
still trending up,” he said. “But measures of real growth failed to respond,
while inflation immediately shot higher and a bear market ensued.”
The Fed Will Cut
Rates Next Week. Thursday’s Consumer Inflation Reading Could Suggest It
Shouldn’t.
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Wignalls Wines owner 'broken' after lithium-ion battery fire burns
warehouse
8 September 2025
A winemaker on the cusp of retirement
has told of the "gut-wrenching" moment his cellar door was nearly
destroyed in a lithium battery fire.
Rob Wignall, owner of Wignalls Wines in
Albany on Western Australia's southern coast, is about to close up shop after
45 years.
He was at his house on the property when
the blaze broke out on Thursday afternoon in a shed used as a warehouse for the
winery.
"The house rattled and there was a
very, very large number of explosions coming from our property," he said.
"I opened the front door and here I
am looking at the biggest black smoke ball you've ever seen.
"One of the warehouses was
completely inundated with 30-metre flames."
The resulting blaze sparked a hazmat
warning for the surrounding area as fears smoke from the warehouse, which
housed fertiliser among other farm supplies, could be harmful.
Firefighters managed to extinguish the
flames, saving the cellar door and one of the warehouses, which had a firewall
installed.
"[The firefighters] have done an
incredible job," Mr Wignall said.
The shed where the fire began was
gutted, destroying tools, machinery and other possessions.
Mr Wignall said there was only one
lithium battery in the shed at the time.
"I want to be very, very clear on
this; the batteries were not in use, the batteries were not on charge," he
said.
"This cordless screwdriver was
[last] used about two or three weeks ago.
"This little battery has actually
started about 10 fires in the warehouse."
Battery fires 'commonly' started in storage
Albany Department of Fire and Emergency
Services district officer Cameron Famlonga said it was common for lithium
batteries to ignite while not on charge.
"About a third of all the lithium
fires that we are investigating, we have found that the batteries weren't on
charge," he said.
"There's another about a third that
were on charge, and the last third, the owners weren't sure."
Mr Famlonga said the way lithium
batteries could burn once ignited could be particularly destructive in closed
spaces.
"When a lithium ion battery goes
into what we call thermal runaway, the explosions can be quite dramatic,"
he said.
"Our own testing [shows] some of
the contents of the internals of the battery cells themselves being projected
about 6 metres away."
This means firefighters have multiple,
extremely hot ignition points to battle.
More
Wignalls Wines owner 'broken' after lithium-ion battery fire burns
warehouse
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
People
who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.
Isaac
Asimov
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