Baltic
Dry Index. 2024 -01 Brent Crude 68.43
Spot Gold 3496 US 2 Year Yield 3.59 -03
US Federal Debt. 37.308 trillion
US GDP 30.239 trillion.
The Great Fire of
London started on Sunday, 2 September 1666 in a baker's shop on Pudding Lane
belonging to Thomas Farynor (Farriner). Although he claimed to have
extinguished the fire, three hours later at 1am, his house was a blazing
inferno.
At first, few were
concerned – fires were such a common occurrence at the time. However, the fire
moved quickly down Pudding Lane and carried on down Fish Hill and towards
the River Thames. It spread rapidly, helped by a strong wind from the east.
When it reached the Thames it hit warehouses stocked with combustible products
including as oil and tallow.
The Great Fire of London | London Fire Brigade
With US stocks trading at infinity and beyond, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation seems to have just signalled its entry into the Trump tariff wars.
What could possibly go wrong as the stock casinos enter the traditional stocks crash season of September - October?
Look away from the gold price now.
Asia markets trade mixed as investors assess SCO
summit amid tariff uncertainty
Published Mon, Sep 1 2025 7:50 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed as
investors assessed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting of leaders in
Tianjin, with tariff uncertainty weighing on sentiment.
This comes after a U.S. federal appeals
court on Friday ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs are
illegal.
India markets will be in focus after U.S.
President Donald Trump said that India had offered to reduce its tariffs on U.S. imports to zero.
“They have now offered to cut their
Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago,”
U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. He added that the U.S.′
relationship with India was “one sided.”
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 was flat, while the
BSE Sensex index ticked up 0.18% in early trade.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.47%,
while the broader Topix index rose 0.73%.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi index increased
by 0.86%, while the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 0.83%. The country’s consumer
price index rose 1.7% in August from the year before, after increasing by 2.1%
the month before. This marks its slowest year-on-year rise since November and
is marginally weaker than the 2% rise forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.61% in
choppy trade, while mainland China’s CSI
300 dropped 0.91%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 pared
earlier losses and was last seen flat.
The Australian Securities and Investments
Commission said that its review panel had imposed a fine of $3.88 million Australian dollars ($2.52
million) on a local unit of French lender Societe Generale for failing to prevent suspicious orders in the
electricity and wheat futures markets.
An investigation by the regulatory body
found that Societe Generale Securities Australia, which is one of the largest
participants on the ASX 24 derivatives market, had allowed two of its clients
to place 33 suspicious orders between May 2023 and February 2024. That
“volatile period” saw supply issues in global energy and wheat markets caused
by the Russia-Ukrainian War, among other factors, the panel said.
Meanwhile, the country’s current account
balance for the April to June quarter came in at a deficit of AU$13.7 billion
Australian dollars, compared to the AU$14.7 billion deficit the quarter before
and the AU$16 billion deficit forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
Spot
gold rose 0.54% to $3,494.87 as of 11:55 p.m. ET Monday, after hitting
a record high of $3,503.32 per ounce earlier in the session.
U.S.
equity futures were little changed in early Asia hours at the start of
what has historically been a seasonally poor month for equities, following new
uncertainty about tariffs after the court decision.
U.S. markets were closed Monday for the
Labor Day public holiday.
Asia
markets trade mixed as investors assess SCO summit
U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the
Dot-Com Era
The S&P 500 has never been this
expensive, or more concentrated in fewer companies
By Jack Pitcher Aug. 31, 2025 9:00 pm ET
The S&P 500’s march to a record high
this year hasn’t come cheap: By some measures, stocks have never been pricier.
Investors are now paying more than ever
for each dollar of revenue the index’s members produce. The benchmark traded at
3.23 times sales on Thursday, a record high.
Price-to-earnings ratios aren’t quite at
records—thanks to juicy profit margins at many of the index’s most valuable
companies—but they still sit at the extreme end of history. The S&P 500
currently trades at 22.5 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months,
compared with the average of 16.8 times since 2000.
Many investors say the biggest U.S.
stocks, most of which are technology companies, are worth every penny. Companies such
as Nvidia and Microsoft are
still boosting sales and profits at a rapid pace, and they
have come to dominate the market. The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500
accounted for 39.5% of its total value at the end of July, the most ever,
according to Morningstar. Nine have a market capitalization above $1 trillion.
“I’m not so worried about that in and of
itself,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “The
big question is what can happen if the situation changes.”
Investors caught a glimpse of the downside
of the market’s concentration in a handful of expensive stocks in April, when
President Trump’s tariff plans triggered a brief selloff. The so-called
Magnificent Seven tech stocks performed worse than the full S&P 500, which
underperformed the same group of 500 stocks if each member were weighted
equally.
“The combination of very high valuations
and very crowded trades certainly raises the susceptibility of the market to an
extended downturn,” Sosnick added. “If everyone is effectively long the same
things, where do the marginal buyers come from when they fall?”
More
U.S.
Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era - WSJ
Trump calls India-U.S. trade relationship 'a
totally one sided disaster' after Modi visits China
Published Mon, Sep 1 2025 9:19 PM EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday
doubled down on his criticism of India, calling trade ties with the country “a
totally one sided disaster!” after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited
China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
Trump in a post on Truth Social also said
that India had offered to cut its tariffs to zero, but it was “getting late,”
and that the country should have done so “years ago,” without elaborating on
when such an offer was made.
This comes against the backdrop of
the U.S.
imposing 50% tariffs on the country, including secondary duties of 25% last
month for purchasing Russian oil, which India has called “unfair, unjustified
and unreasonable.”
Trump reiterated that India was buying oil
and arms from Russia, and accused New Delhi of selling the U.S. “massive
amounts of goods,” but imposing high tariffs on U.S. exports to India.
“The reason is that India has charged us,
until now, such high Tariffs, the most of any country, that our businesses are
unable to sell into India. It has been a totally one sided disaster!” he wrote.
Data from the World Trade Organization shows that
India imposed a 6.2% average tariff on U.S. imports into the country in 2024,
on a trade-weighted basis, while U.S. levied 2.4% on Indian goods. The
trade-weighted average is the average rate of duty per imported value unit.
The U.S.-India relations have soured over
the past couple of months, upending more than two decades of improving ties,
with several U.S. officials increasing their criticism of New Delhi over its
Russian oil imports. India has
called out the U.S. and European Union for their trade with Russia,
while targeting New Delhi.
India’s foreign ministry last month said
“it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves
indulging in trade with Russia. Unlike our case, such trade is not even a vital
national compulsion [for them].”
Back in May, India had reportedly offered a “zero-for-zero” tariff deal on
steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals on a reciprocal basis, up to a
certain quantity of imports. However, both New Delhi and Washington failed to
come to a trade deal, leading Trump to impose
50% tariffs on Indian exports.
India’s Modi met Chinese President Xi
Jinping at the SCO summit in Tianjin held between between Aug. 31 and Sept. 1,
with both sides affirming the importance of being partners, not rivals.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on
Monday played down the idea that U.S. tariffs were bringing
countries like China and India closer together, describing the SCO summit as
“performative,” according to Reuters.
More
Trump
calls India-U.S. trade relationship 'a totally one sided disaster'
Gold scales four-month peak on US rate-cut bets;
silver at 14-year high
1 September 2025
(Reuters) - Gold hit a more than
four-month high on Monday as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets this
month and a softer dollar heightened bullion's allure, while silver breached
$40 per ounce for the first time since 2011.
Spot gold gained 0.9% to $3,477.89 per
ounce by 0847 GMT, hitting its highest point since April 22. U.S. gold futures
for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,548.0.
Spot silver jumped 2.7% to $40.72 per
ounce, its highest since September 2011.
The U.S. dollar was trading near its
lowest since July 28 against rivals, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper
for overseas buyers. [USD/]
"Gold, and especially silver,
extended Friday's strong gains, supported by sticky U.S. inflation, weakening
consumer sentiment, (expected) rate cuts ... and concerns over Fed
independence," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, said.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures
price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, in line with
expectations, data showed on Friday.
"Silver is making a move higher in
response to expectations of lower rates, while a tight supply market is helping
to maintain an upward bias," KCM Trade's chief market analyst, Tim Waterer
said.
In a social media post last week, San
Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly reiterated her support for a
rate cut, citing labour market risks.
"The market is watching for Friday's
U.S. job market report, anticipating that this would allow the Fed to resume
rate cuts from September onwards (given) this supports investment demand,"
said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
The August non-farm payrolls, due Friday,
are expected to have grown by 78,000 jobs, a Reuters poll showed, versus 73,000
in July.
Non-yielding gold typically performs well
in a low-interest-rate environment.
More
Gold
scales four-month peak on US rate-cut bets; silver at 14-year high
In other news, “tariffs? What tariffs?”
China’s August factory activity beats estimates,
expanding at fastest pace in five months: private survey
Published Sun, Aug 31 2025 10:12 PM EDT
China’s manufacturing activity
unexpectedly returned to growth in August on the back of a recovery in new
orders and export business, a private
survey showed
Monday, helped by an extended trade-war truce with the U.S.
The RatingDog manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index came in at 50.5, sharply beating estimates of 49.7 from
economists polled by Reuters.
The gauge signaled the fastest rate of
expansion since March, rebounding from July’s 49.5. A reading below 50 signals
contraction while one above that threshold suggests an expansion.
The improvement was in part driven by
a recovery in new export orders, indicating the “resilience of
external demand in the face of tariffs,” Zichun Huang, China economist at
Capital Economics said in a note. The gains in overall output and new orders
were more muted, suggesting “little improvement in domestic demand,” Huang
added.
Average raw material costs rose at their
fastest pace in nine months, prompting some businesses to pass on the higher
expenses to consumers. The average sale prices stabilized after eight months of
declines, the survey showed.
Beijing has sought to curb excess capacity
and the price wars sweeping across industrial sectors that have weighed on
businesses’ bottom lines.
That said, profit trends interpreted from
the PMI data showed only a slight recovery and remain under pressure overall,
Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, said in a statement.
While overall business confidence
improved, employment in the manufacturing sector remained bleak, the survey
showed, as business owners remained cautious with staffing, reducing jobs for a
fifth straight month.
“The latest upturn resembled a breath of
relief rather than a sustained rally,” Yu said, cautioning about persistent
weak domestic demand, “potentially overstretched external orders,” and a slow
profit recovery.
“The durability of the improvement depends
on whether exports truly stabilize and whether domestic demand can pick up
pace,” Yu added.
The results of the private survey was
still more upbeat than the official reading released Sunday, which showed
manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month in August, coming in
at 49.4 compared with 49.3 in July.
The non-manufacturing PMI index, covering
services and construction, expanded to 50.3 in August from 50.1 in the prior
month.
Private surveys have tended to paint a
better picture than official polls over the previous years on the back of
stronger exports. The private survey covers a smaller batch of
over 500 mostly export-oriented firms, while the official PMI
surveys a larger sample of over 3,000 companies in mostly upstream sectors.
China’s exports growth has beaten
expectations in
recent months,
driven largely by a surge in shipments to Southeast Asia and European
countries, while shipments to the U.S. have declined for four straight months.
More
China's August
factory activity beats estimates, expanding at fastest pace in 5 months
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Dollar
hits lowest since end-July ahead of US jobs data
September
1, 2025
(Reuters)
-The dollar hit a 5-week low on Monday as investors looked ahead to a raft of
U.S. labour market data this week that could affect expectations for the
Federal Reserve's monetary easing path.
Traders
were also assessing Friday's U.S. inflation figures and a court ruling that
most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, as well as the U.S. president's
ongoing tussle with the Fed over his attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook.
Money
markets have recently priced an around 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate
cut in September and around 100 bps of easing by autumn 2026, according to the
CME FedWatch tool.
Against
a basket of currencies, the dollar eased 0.22% to 97.64, after hitting 97.552,
its lowest level since July 28. It clocked a monthly decline of 2.2% on Friday.
Investors
will be focussed on Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which will be
preceded by data on job openings and private payrolls.
Analysts
said the U.S. economy is no longer outperforming as it did for much of the past
decade, justifying a weaker dollar, and further signs of a softening labour
market are expected to bolster that narrative.
"Severe
weakness (in economic data) would point to an even more forceful Fed response
than market pricing predicts, but if May/June weakness is revealed as a
statistical mirage, rate cuts would seem unwarranted given the almost certain
prospect of rising inflation over the next year or so," Societe Generale
economist Klaus Baader said.
Some
analysts still see the chance of a 50-bp move by the Fed later this month.
The
euro was up 0.35% to $1.1724, while sterling edged 0.18% higher to $1.3528.
U.S. markets are closed for a holiday on Monday.
Political
risks are in focus as the French government faces likely defeat in a confidence
vote over plans for sweeping budget cuts.
Analysts
noted that such risks tend to weigh on the currency only when there are clear
signs of contagion within the euro area, something that is not evident at the
moment.
Investors
are keeping a close eye on trade policy while the U.S. continues negotiations
with key trading partners.
"We
do not see much market impact from the court ruling," Jefferies economist
Mohit Kumar said.
"The
matter would pass on to the Supreme Court which is likely to rule in favour of
Trump."
The
greenback has also been weighed down by worries over Fed independence, as Trump
steps up his campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy.
"Fiscal
dominance risks should be more clearly apparent in both higher long-end U.S.
inflation break-evens and a higher risk discount on the dollar, none of which
is materializing yet," George Saravelos, head of forex strategy at
Deutsche Bank, said.
"Fiscal
dominance" refers to a scenario where central banks are pressured to ease
monetary policy to help finance large budget deficits.
More
Dollar hits lowest
since end-July ahead of US jobs data
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Why I don’t use AI (or summaries) in
the LIR. Although friends and family unkindly say I’ve been operating on AI for
seven decades.
Approx. 25 minutes.
Is AI Slop Killing the Internet?
Is AI Slop Killing
the Internet?
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I think
both sides [China and United States] should work hard to build a new type of
relationship between big powers. The two sides should cooperate with each other
for a win-win result in order to benefit people from the two countries and the
world.
Xi
Jinping
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