Friday, 5 September 2025

US Jobs Day. Truth Or Consequences?

Baltic Dry Index. 1963 +23              Brent Crude 66.88

Spot Gold 3568                    US 2 Year Yield 3.59 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 37.320 trillion

US GDP 30.246 trillion.

September 5, 1914. The First Battle of the Marne or known in France as the Miracle on the Marne (Frenchmiracle de la Marne) was a battle of the First World War fought from 5 to 12 September 1914.[4] The German army invaded France with a plan for winning the war in 40 days by occupying Paris and destroying the French and British armies. The Germans had initial successes in August. They were victorious in the Battles of Mons and the Frontiers and overran a large area of northern France and Belgium. In what is called the Great Retreat the Germans pursued the retreating French and British forces more than 250 km (160 mi) southwards. The French and British halted their retreat in the Marne River valley, while the Germans advanced to 40 km (25 miles) from Paris.

First Battle of the Marne - Wikipedia   

(Famous for Paris taxis taking troops to the front to stop the German Army.)

It is US jobs report day. After President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a bad jobs report last month, everyone and their dog will be waiting to see if the BLS will now come up with a new jobs report pleasing to President Trump.

Still a strong US jobs report will make it harder for the US central bank to cut their key interest rate by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points.

What a tangled web we weave and all that.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher after Trump formalizes lower Japanese auto tariffs

Published Thu, Sep 4 2025 7:55 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday formalizing a lower Japanese auto import tariff of 15%, down from 27.5%.

The order also confirmed the agreement for $550 billion of Japanese investments in U.S. projects.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.39% and the Topix added 0.86% after thge country’s July household spending rose 1.4% year over year.

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.26%, while the Kosdaq jumped 0.35%.

Several Asian chip stocks jumped after Trump said Thursday stateside that his administration plans to slap tariffs on semiconductor imports from firms that do not move production to the United States. The comments came ahead of Trump’s dinner with top technology CEOs at the renovated Rose Garden.

Advantest gained 2.99%, while Lasertec popped 3.24%. TSMC climbed 1.29%. Shares of South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix also rose over 3%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.58%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.17%, while the mainland CSI 300 was flat.

Over in India, the benchmark Nifty 50 was up 0.18%, while the Sensex index rose 0.29%.

Malaysian and Indonesian markets were closed for a holiday.

U.S. equity futures in early Asia hours were little changed ahead of the August jobs report due out Friday stateside.

Overnight stateside, all three key benchmarks rose on hopes of a favorable jobs report that supports a Federal Reserve rate cut chance.

The broad market S&P 500 finished up 0.83% at 6,502.08, while the Nasdaq Composite settled up 0.98% at 21,707.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 350.06 points, or 0.77%, at 45,621.29. It was S&P 500′s 21st record close so far this year.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher after Trump formalizes lower Japanese auto tariffs

CNBC Daily Open: Markets are riding high, but will jobs data derail the rally?

Published Thu, Sep 4 2025 9:09 PM EDT

Markets have been rising on hopes that weak jobs data will lead to rate cuts. But they could be staring at an oncoming freight train if the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due Friday sends recessionary signals.

The ADP private payrolls report on Thursday showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, lower than the 75,000 expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The figure is also less than the revised 106,000 jobs added in July.

Jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 30 also increased to 237,000. That number came in above estimates and marked an 8,000 gain from the prior week, providing more evidence of labor market slowdown.

Currently, the market has shrugged off that data. All three major U.S. indexes ended in positive territory Thursday, with the S&P500 notching a record high.

But that’s the thing about freight trains. You hear them them faintly in the distance, and all of a sudden, you’re scrambling to jump out of the way as it barrels down on you.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 75,000 additions last month, according to a Dow Jones poll.

Investors will then know if the train is simply pulling into a station, or their portfolios are about to get run over — and optimism in itself isn’t always a great armor.

CNBC Daily Open: Markets are riding high, but will jobs data derail the rally?

Labor market growth slows dramatically in August with U.S. adding just 54,000 jobs, ADP says

Published Thu, Sep 4 2025 8:15 AM EDT Updated Thu, Sep 4 2025 4:19 PM EDT

U.S. private-sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market.

Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That’s below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones, and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month.

“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, in a press release.

Richardson pointed to rising worries from consumers, labor shortages and disruptions tied to artificial intelligence as potential drivers of this decrease in growth.

Jobs tied to trade, transportation and utilities saw particular weakness in August, with the group losing 17,000 roles on net, according to the ADP. Education and health services followed, recording a decline of 12,000 jobs.

But those losses were offset in part by a boom in the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 50,000 jobs in the month.

Wage growth maintained the same pace in August. Those staying in their roles saw their pay rise 4.4% year over year, while job changes recorded a 7.1% increase during the same period.

Thursday’s ADP report adds to an already concerning picture of the labor market.

Richardson pointed to rising worries from consumers, labor shortages and disruptions tied to artificial intelligence as potential drivers of this decrease in growth.

Jobs tied to trade, transportation and utilities saw particular weakness in August, with the group losing 17,000 roles on net, according to the ADP. Education and health services followed, recording a decline of 12,000 jobs.

But those losses were offset in part by a boom in the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 50,000 jobs in the month.

Wage growth maintained the same pace in August. Those staying in their roles saw their pay rise 4.4% year over year, while job changes recorded a 7.1% increase during the same period.

Thursday’s ADP report adds to an already concerning picture of the labor market.

Jobless claims increased to 237,000, up 8,000 from the prior week and above estimates, per data also published Thursday morning. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey registered one of its worst levels for job openings in July since 2020, according to government figures released Wednesday.

Now, attention will home in on the all-important jobs report slated for Friday morning. Economists expect the official government report to show 75,000 nonfarm payrolls added in August, about even with the prior month, according to estimates collected by Dow Jones. Economists predict the unemployment rate inched up to 4.3% from 4.2%.

More

ADP: Labor market growth slows in August with U.S. adding 54,000 jobs

August job cuts highest since pandemic: Report

by Elizabeth Crisp - 09/04/25 9:34 AM ET

Layoffs surged nearly 40 percent last month, with employers eliminating 85,979 positions — the largest August hit since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to research released Thursday.

The analysis from the Challenger, Gray & Christmas consulting firm noted the cuts, which have hit the pharmaceutical, financial and retail industries especially hard, are likely linked to some of President Trump’s policies since his return to office in January.

To date, employers have made 892,362 cuts in 2025 — the most since 2020, when 1,963,458 cuts were announced from January to August amid the pandemic, according to the firm’s analysis.

The experts wrote that the White House’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and its sweeping cuts to the federal workforce likely had a ripple effect that prompted cutbacks. “DOGE actions” has been the top reason cited for job cuts and layoffs so far in 2025, according to the analysis.

“After the impact of DOGE on the federal government, employers are citing economic and market factors as the driver of layoffs,” said Andrew Challenger, a labor expert and senior vice president at the firm. “We’ve also seen a spike in cuts due to operation or store closings and bankruptcies this year compared to last.”

The pharmaceutical industry, with 19,111 layoffs, and financial sector, with 18,092 cuts, saw the biggest losses last month.

“Economic uncertainty and market volatility have increased pressure on companies in finance to tighten belts,” Challenger said.

The retail sector also has been hit hard this year, the analysts found.

Retailers have eliminated 83,656 jobs this year through August — up 242 percent from the 24,489 cuts announced during the same period last year. Challenger cited the role that Trump’s tariff policies have likely played and could continue to have through the rest of the year.

“Retailers are being hard hit by tariffs, inflation, and ongoing economic uncertainty causing bankruptcies and closures,” he said. “If tariffs and consumer spending constraints play out, the approaching holiday shopping season may see fewer seasonal hires and, in fact, high layoffs.”

Challenger also noted seasonal hiring tends to pick up in September each year.

“Coming off the lowest August on record for hiring plans, it may be a troubling sign,” he said.

August sees nearly 86K layoffs, highest since COVID-19

In other news.

Pakistan and India suspend mail deliveries to US

3 September 2025

Dubai: International postal services have been thrown into disarray after the United States abruptly ended its long-standing duty-free facility for incoming mail.

More than 25 countries including Pakistan, China, the UK, Japan, Germany, France, Australia and India have suspended deliveries to the US in response to the new rules.

Pakistan Post confirmed it has halted dispatches, citing fears that booked consignments would simply be returned. The disruption stems from an executive order issued by Washington on July 25 (No. 14324), which requires all categories of international mail to be subject to duties and taxes.

India Post

India Post has announced to suspend all categories of mail operations destined to the US in the absence of clarity over new rules issued by the U.S. Customs department, an official statement said early this week.

The change has rippled across the global logistics chain. Airlines that normally transport mail have also pulled back, saying the compliance burden makes shipments unworkable under the new regime.

Affected governments have escalated the matter through the Universal Postal Union (UPU), the UN body responsible for regulating global postal cooperation. The UPU is now engaging with US authorities in an effort to restore normal operations.

Why it matters

The suspension is among the largest collective postal disruptions in recent memory. Millions of individuals and businesses worldwide rely on low-cost mail to send documents, personal parcels, and small commercial consignments. For countries like Pakistan and India, where overseas communication supports students, migrant families, and exporters, the halt is particularly damaging.

Analysts see Washington’s move as part of a broader protectionist trend that shifts costs onto foreign senders. While the US argues the new rules ensure fairer treatment of imports, critics warn that the global postal standoff highlights how quickly changes in American trade policy can upend international systems built on decades of cooperation.

Pakistan and India suspend mail deliveries to US

The sole purpose of being rich is to give away money.

Andrew Carnegie

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Euro zone retail sales fall more than expected in July

4 September 2025

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Retail sales growth in the euro zone slowed further in July, raising doubts that healthy domestic consumption could continue to offset a hit to economic growth from U.S. tariffs, data from Eurostat showed on Thursday.

Retail sales in the 20 nations sharing the euro fell by 0.5% on the month, underperforming expectations for a 0.2% monthly drop, while sales were 2.2% higher than a year ago, below the 2.4% rise seen in a Reuters poll of economists.

Euro zone growth was unexpectedly strong in first half of the year as household consumption picked up and economists have been debating whether this increase was sustainable given the hit to sentiment from tariffs and economic turmoil elsewhere.

Euro zone retail sales fall more than expected in July

India to cut taxes on hundreds of consumer goods to boost local demand following steep US tariffs

4 September 2025

India will cut taxes on hundreds of consumer goods ranging from air conditioners to small cars to bolster local consumption, its government said Wednesday, as New Delhi moves to cushion its economy from the blow of steep U.S. import tariffs.

The announcement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs last month that threaten a chunk of New Delhi’s outbound shipments to its world’s biggest market.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told a news conference late Wednesday that the reduced goods and services tax, or consumption tax, have been approved by an all-powerful government panel. They will take effect on Sept. 22, the first day of a major Hindu festival that precedes the festival of lights, Diwali, in October.

The government’s latest overhaul cuts the consumption tax tiers to a two-rate structure of 5% and 18% instead of the previous four tiers of 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%, according to the Finance Ministry.

A majority of the goods will attract lower taxes, though a special rate of 40% is proposed on a select few items such as high-end cars, tobacco and cigarettes. No tax would apply on purchases of life and health insurance.

Reducing the taxes is a part of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s broader plan to insulate the economy from the shock of U.S. tariffs, expected to hit an estimated $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports.

“The wide-ranging reforms will improve lives of our citizens and ensure ease of doing business for all, especially small traders and businesses,” Modi said in a post on the social platform X.

Trump last month imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in response to its unabated purchase of Russian oil, bringing the total tariffs to 50% and straining ties between the world’s two biggest democracies.

India–U.S. trade relations have expanded in recent years but remain vulnerable to disputes over market access and domestic political pressures. Officials have warned the new duties could make shipments to the U.S. commercially unviable, triggering job losses and slower economic growth.

To cushion the impact, India is also working on expanding its exports to other world markets such as Europe, Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia.

Trade negotiations underway with the European Union have gained renewed urgency as India works to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market. The government is also discussing financial incentives that would include favorable bank loan rates for exporters.

India to cut taxes on hundreds of consumer goods to boost local demand following steep US tariffs

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New Study Finds Electrons Flow Like Liquid in Graphene, Breaking Rules

3 September 2025

Scientists have observed a quantum fluid of electrons in graphene for the first time, showing near-perfect fluid behaviour and shedding light on a quantum physics puzzle. 

In a collaborative effort, researchers at the Indian Institute of Science and Japan's National Institute for Materials Science have captured an elusive fluid state in graphene. The study was published in Nature Physics, and attempts to answer the question of whether electrons behave like a perfect, frictionless fluid. 

Atomic imperfections and impurities in materials has meant it is exceptionally difficult to explore this electron behaviour. However, the new study, with ultra-clean graphene samples, may have found a way around this. 

It is amazing that there is so much to do on just a single layer of graphene even after 20 years of discovery.

Arindam Ghosh, Study Corresponding Author and Professor, Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science

Related Stories

The researchers created exceptionally clean graphene samples and examined how they conduct both electricity and heat. What they found was surprising: the two types of conductivity were inversely proportional. When electrical conductivity rose, thermal conductivity dropped, and vice versa.

This relationship contradicts a well-known concept called the Wiedemann-Franz rule, which states that electrical and thermal conductivity values should be precisely related. In this case, the relationship broke down by a factor of more than 200 at low temperatures. 

The researchers found that both charge and heat conduction in the graphene samples relied on a material-independent universal constant equal to the quantum of conductance, a basic value connected to the movement of electrons.

The unusual behaviour was most prominent near the “Dirac point,” a state where graphene behaves as neither a metal nor an insulator. At this point, electrons stop acting like individual particles and instead flow together as a collective, low-viscosity fluid. The fluid behaves similarly to water, but about a hundred times less viscous. 

Since this water-like behavior is found near the Dirac point, it is called a Dirac fluid – an exotic state of matter which mimics the quark-gluon plasma, a soup of highly energetic subatomic particles observed in particle accelerators at CERN.

Aniket Majumdar, Study First Author and PhD Student, Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science

The scientists also evaluated the viscosity of this Dirac fluid and discovered that it was the closest thing to a perfect fluid, minimally viscous.

The findings could make graphene a potential low-cost platform for laboratory investigations into high-energy physics and astrophysics issues such as black hole thermodynamics and entanglement entropy scaling.

From a technological standpoint, the presence of Dirac fluid in graphene has important applications in quantum sensors that are capable of amplifying very weak electrical signals and monitoring extremely weak magnetic fields.

New Study Finds Electrons Flow Like Liquid in Graphene, Breaking Rules

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the start of the traditional markets crash season. Will Trump tariffs bring on a Trump slump? Havea great weekend everyone.

The greatest astonishment of my life was the discovery that the man who does the work is not the man who gets rich

Andrew Carnegie


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