Thursday, 25 September 2025

UK Stagflation Ahead. SK Rethinks. Stocks Pause?

Baltic Dry Index. 2240 +40           Brent Crude 69.03

Spot Gold 3758                 US 2 Year Yield 3.63 +0.02

US Federal Debt. 37.523 trillion

US GDP 30.288 trillion.

The second vice is lying, the first is running in debt.

Benjamin Franklin

In the US stocks casinos, another pause or something more?

On to today’s latest US jobs data and tomorrow’s PCE inflation data that’s the Fed’s favourite inflation indicator.

Asia-Pacific markets rise after Wall Street declines as investors sell tech names

Published Wed, Sep 24 2025 7:42 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed in choppy trade Thursday, breaking ranks with Wall Street after investors continued selling tech names like Nvidia and Oracle for a second straight day.

Nvidia slid almost 1%, continuing its declines from Tuesday as heightened fears about the potentially circular nature of the AI industry drew investor skepticism.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was 0.24% up, as investors are watched Chinese automaker Chery Automobile’s debut on the index after its $1.2 billion IPO. Shares of Chery rose 11% to 34.16 Hong Kong dollars ($4.39) at the open, compared with its offer price of HK$30.75.

Separately, Xiaomi shares gained 1.85% after debuting a slew of new devices and appliances, including smartphones to take on South Korea’s Samsung.

On the mainland, China’s CSI 300 advanced 0.76%.

South Korea’s Kospi was just above the flatline, but the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.49%. However, South Korean defense stocks continued to rise, with major players like Korea Aerospace up 0.66%, and Poongsan 4% higher.

Internet firm Naver was one of the leaders on the Kospi, gaining over 7% after it announced an investment into health startup GravityLabs early Thursday.

Taiwan’s Taiex was down 0.33%, with heavyweight Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company down 1.12%. This comes after Bloomberg reported that chip giant Intel is seeking an investment from Apple.

Apple had previously used Intel chips in many of its personal computing devices, but switched to TSMC when it launched its M1 chip in 2020. The report however, said that Apple is unlikely to shift back to Intel chips.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2%, while the broad based Topix gained 0.43%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 reversed course and added 0.21%.

U.S. stock futures were little changed as investors awaited Thursday’s release of weekly jobless claims data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moves amid increasing concerns about a weakening labor market and rising layoffs.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 dropped 0.28% to end at 6,637.97, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 0.34% to settle at 22,497.86.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.37%, to finish at 46,121.28.

Asia markets reverse earlier losses as investors sell tech names on Wall Street

Stock futures are little changed ahead of key jobs data: Live updates

Updated Wed, Sep 24 2025 6:24 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed Wednesday night as investors awaited upcoming jobs data.

S&P futures ticked higher by about 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered above the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39 points, or nearly 0.1%.

Intel shares gained 1.5% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that the chipmaker has approached Apple to seek an investment from the iPhone maker.

The three major U.S. indexes fell for the second session in a row on Wednesday as key leaders of the artificial intelligence trade such as NvidiaOracle and Micron Technology lost steam. The market action appears to be reflecting concerns about record-high valuations and potentially risky circular relationships in the AI industry after some recent deals.

The S&P 500 had snapped a three-day winning streak on Tuesday.

Thursday’s release of weekly jobless claims data will provide a key economic data point that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moves amid increasing concerns about a weakening labor market and rising layoffs. Initial unemployment claims last week eased after a brief spike the week prior.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that a slowing labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation, which contributed to the Federal Open Market Committee’s recent decision to lower interest rates for the first time this year. Powell noted “a marked slowdown” in supply and demand and said that “in this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment have risen.”

Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equity strategist at MRB Partners, said he does not expect the recent hiring slump to become a “self-reinforcing negative cycle” that causes a spike in layoffs.

“On the jobless claims data, clearly it is a focus of the equity markets, especially with the Fed leaning more towards emphasizing the maximum employment part of its mandate,” Ruscitti said. “I think you would have to see a meaningful spike higher in weekly jobless claims to elicit a meaningful negative reaction in the equity market.”

Investors are also cautious ahead of the personal consumption expenditures price index due Friday and are monitoring developments regarding a potential government shutdown.

Stock market today: Live updates

South Korean investment in the US is now in peril

Opinion in Seoul is hardening after the Georgia raid

24 September 2025

“The United States seems to have changed,” South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said last week in the national assembly. His remarks came against the backdrop of harrowing accounts from South Korean nationals detained in an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency raid on the Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia and recently released to return home.  While President Lee Jae-myung sought to downplay the raid’s impact, citing a “cultural difference”, the issue now appears to have gone beyond visas to further strain the stalled trade talks between the two allies.

 Although both sides agreed in principle to a deal in July, under which the US lowered the tariff on South Korean imports from 25 to 15 per cent in exchange for Seoul’s commitment to invest $350bn in the US, disagreements over the details have bogged down negotiations. Having watched how quickly handshakes at a summit in Washington can turn into handcuffs in an immigration raid in Georgia, public sentiment in Seoul towards the deal is showing signs of hardening. ICE’s operation was a stark reminder that South Korea — despite being America’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partner for over a decade — still lacks a dedicated visa category, unlike some of America’s other FTA partners. 

It has revived long-held perceptions in Seoul that South Korea is receiving unfair treatment, even as its companies pour investment into US manufacturing on a scale unmatched by FTA partners with dedicated visa categories, such as Singapore, Chile and Australia. The Partner with Korea Act — which would create an E-4 visa category for highly skilled Korean nationals while requiring employers to ensure they are not hired for positions US workers could fill — has languished on Capitol Hill for years, despite being reintroduced in every Congress since 2013. US President Donald Trump’s recent proclamation imposing a steep new fee on H-1B visas only underscored the glaring absence of a dedicated category for South Korean skilled workers. 

On September 8, before his trip to the US to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Cho was grilled by lawmakers about the raid. Representative Kim Joon-hyung of the Rebuilding Korea Party pressed the foreign minister, challenging him on why Seoul doesn’t counter by withholding investment. Without offering a clear explanation for why the US is holding South Korea to a “Japan-style” deal, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comment on the day the detained workers were released that “the Japanese signed the contract. The Koreans either accept that deal or pay the tariffs” did not go over well in Seoul. Lee’s recent remark that US investment demands could trigger another financial crisis in South Korea has deepened domestic concern over the trade talks. In this climate, a debate has emerged over whether Seoul should resist “buying down” the tariff and instead consider swallowing the 25 per cent hit. 

A similar sentiment was voiced by Korean Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan after his unfruitful meeting with Lutnick in New York after the raid. While he dismissed questions about the need for continued trade talks with the US, Kim said, “Some say even if tariffs were raised from 15 to 25 per cent, it would not be much compared to $350bn, and I also sometimes think of this as an option”. Kim’s comment reflects a notable view in Seoul that the $350bn could instead be used to cushion Korean companies harmed by the tariffs. This idea was also advanced by Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, who contends that both Seoul and Tokyo would be far better off spending a fraction of the money Washington demands to support local workers and businesses hit by tariffs, rather than handing over hundreds of billions for little in return.

More

South Korean investment in the US is now in peril

In commodity news.

Copper Prices Jump as Freeport Details Production Hit from Grasberg Mine Suspension

24 September 2025

Copper prices surged roughly 2% in intraday trading Wednesday after Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) outlined the significant production shortfall caused by the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following a fatal mud rush.

The mining giant confirmed that operations remain halted after two workers were killed, while search efforts continue for five missing employees. Freeport warned that the shutdown will reduce third-quarter 2025 consolidated sales by about 4% for copper and 6% for gold compared to earlier July projections.

The fourth-quarter impact is expected to be even more pronounced. Copper and gold output at PT Freeport Indonesia is now projected to be “insignificant” relative to previous forecasts of 445 million pounds of copper and 345,000 ounces of gold.

Looking further ahead, the company expects 2026 production at PT Freeport Indonesia to come in roughly 35% below prior estimates of 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold. Freeport does not anticipate a return to pre-incident production levels until potentially 2027 under its phased restart plan.

The company said that operations at its Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines are expected to resume by mid-fourth quarter, while Grasberg’s phased restart and ramp-up is scheduled for the first half of 2026.

The disruption comes amid already tight global copper supplies, helping to push prices higher as the market reacts to the unexpected production shortfall at one of the world’s largest copper mines.

Copper Prices Jump as Freeport Details Production Hit from Grasberg Mine Suspension

In other news, AI mania bubbles on.

Sam Altman on OpenAI’s $850 billion in planned buildouts: ‘People are worried. I totally get that’

Published Wed, Sep 24 2025 12:58 AM EDT

ABILENE, Texas — Sam Altman stood on a patch of hot Texas dirt, the kind that turns to dust storms on dry days and mud slicks after a sudden rain. Behind him stretched the outlines of what will soon be a massive data center complex in the west-central part of the state, where heavy wind often meets extreme heat.

It was a fitting backdrop for the OpenAI CEO to unveil what he calls the largest infrastructure push of the modern internet era: a 17-gigawatt buildout in partnership with OracleNvidia, and SoftBank.

In less than 48 hours, OpenAI has announced commitments equal to 17 nuclear plants or about nine Hoover Dams. The plan will require the amount of electricity needed to power more than 13 million U.S. homes.

The scale is staggering, even for a company that’s raised a record amount of private market cash and seen its valuation swell to $500 billion. At roughly $50 billion per site, OpenAI’s projects add up to about $850 billion in spending, nearly half of the $2 trillion global AI infrastructure surge HSBC now forecasts.

Altman understands the concern. But he rejects the idea that the spending spree is overkill.

“People are worried. I totally get that. I think that’s a very natural thing,” Altman told CNBC on Tuesday from the site of the first of its mega data centers in Abilene. “We are growing faster than any business I’ve ever heard of before.”

Altman insisted that the building boom is in response to soaring demand, highlighting the tenfold jump in ChatGPT usage over the past 18 months. He said a network of supercomputing facilities is what’s required to maximize the capabilities of AI.

“This is what it takes to deliver AI,” Altman said. “Unlike previous technological revolutions or previous versions of the internet, there’s so much infrastructure that’s required, and this is a small sample of it.”

The biggest bottleneck for AI isn’t money or chips — it’s electricity. Altman has put money into nuclear companies because he sees their steady, concentrated output as one of the only energy sources strong enough to meet AI’s enormous demand.

Altman led a $500 million funding round into fusion firm Helion Energy to build a demonstration reactor, and backed Oklo, a fission company he took public last year through his own SPAC. 

Critics warn of a bubble, pointing to how companies like Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom and Microsoft have each added hundreds of billions of dollars in market value on the back of tie-ups with OpenAI, which is burning cash. Nvidia and Microsoft are now worth a combined $8.1 trillion, or equal to about 13.5% of the S&P 500.

Skeptics also say the system looks like a circular financing model. OpenAI is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to projects that rely on partners like Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank. Those companies are simultaneously investing in the same projects and then getting paid back through chip sales and data center leases.

More

Sam Altman OpenAI's $850 billion in planned buildouts, bubble concern

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Is Britain on the verge of stagflation? What the OECD warning means

24 September 2025

Rachel Reeves suffered a fresh headache after OECD forecasts underlined Britain’s deepening cost of living crisis – with the highest inflation in the G7 – and sluggish economic growth.

The report is likely to raise fears of stagflation - where the economy stagnates at the same time as inflation drives spiralling prices.

It comes as the Chancellor comes under mounting pressure ahead of November’s Autumn Budget as she seeks to fill a black hole of up to £50 billion in the public finances.

Separately, a closely-watched business survey – the purchasing managers’ index – pointed to a sharp slowdown in growth this month.

What is the forecast for the UK economy? 

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that the UK economy will grow by 1.4 per cent this year – a slight upgrade.

For 2026, the OECD continues to forecast meagre 1 per cent growth.

It will be a worry for Ms Reeves if the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is equally pessimistic in November’s Budget. In the spring, it predicted growth of 1.9 per cent for 2026.

The outlook for UK inflation has been sharply upgraded for this year, from 3.1 per cent to 3.5 per cent, and for next, from 2.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent.

The Chancellor said: ‘These figures confirm that the British economy is stronger than forecast – it has been the fastest growing of any G7 economy in the first half of the year.

‘But I know there is more to do to build an economy that works for working people – and rewards working people.’

What's going on with inflation? 

The OECD report confirms Britain’s deepening cost of living problem. It cites the UK as one of a number of countries particularly badly hit by food inflation – adding to the pain faced by households doing the weekly shop.

The forecast means UK continues to face the highest inflation in the G7 this year - though will fall behind the US in 2026.

Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: ‘The OECD confirms what hard-working families already feel - under Labour, Britain is in a high tax, high inflation, low growth doom loop.

‘Rachel Reeves seems to think the solution is yet more tax rises. The UK is now teetering on the edge of stagflation, all driven by Labour’s economic mismanagement.

‘This should be a wake-up call to the Chancellor: you can't tax your way to growth.”

What is stagflation and are we at risk?

Stagflation is the term given to the toxic combination of high inflation and stagnant growth.

The Chancellor and the Bank of England are facing an environment of weaker economic output and above-target inflation.

This was underscored by a closely-watched survey from S&P Global on Tuesday that showed private sector output has slowed to its weakest level since May as higher business costs have sparked ‘subdued’ demand and further job cuts.

The most recent data from the Office for National Statistics shows the UK economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months to July, slowing from growth rates of 0.3 and 0.6 per cent in the three months to June and May respectively.

Meanwhile, consumer prices index inflation was 3.8 per cent in August, almost double the BoE’s target of 2 per cent. Inflation is expected to peak this month or next.

Inflation in the UK is considerably higher than the 2.9 per cent level in the US, where growth is at 2.1 per cent. Across the eurozone inflation is 2.1 per cent and GDP growth is 1.5 per cent.

Market concerns over inflation in the UK, the size of our borrowing and the lack of growth to pay for it, have led to longer-term gilt yields rising, with 30-year gilts topping 5.5 per cent in recent weeks.

More

Is Britain on the verge of stagflation? What the OECD warning means

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Maritime firefighters train on tackling electric vehicle and battery fires

Mon 22 September 2025 at 11:53 am BST

Firefighters from across the Maritimes gathered on P.E.I. over the weekend to learn more about combating electric vehicle fires and blazes caused by lithium-ion batteries.

About 75 firefighters from departments in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia began the two-day training Saturday with a lecture at UPEI. On Sunday, they took part in hands-on training.

Peter Vandenbroek, with Red Island Training Days — organized by the P.E.I. Firefighters Association — said EV and lithium-ion battery fires present unique challenges.

"One of the things we're hearing with EVs is the large amount of water it takes to extinguish the fires, because the batteries, when they go into thermal runaway, can… create their own oxygen, which keeps feeding the fire," Vandenbroek told CBC News.

"And the batteries are underneath the vehicle, so they're tougher to access, requiring more water to be applied to the battery pack to cool it down and actually extinguish the fire."

Vandenbroek said there are other challenges when responding to fires caused by smaller lithium-ion batteries.

"Smaller battery packs, like a drill battery, are powered by a lot of smaller batteries inside, and when they catch fire and they explode, the smaller batteries that are inside the packs can actually spread throughout the house," he said.

"And [they] land on sofas, or beds, or on their furniture, causing fires in other locations in the house that you weren't expecting when you first arrived on scene."

A growing threat

Paul Shoemaker, instructor and owner of Next Level Training Network, has spent 14 years educating in the fire service and the last eight focusing on lithium-ion batteries. He led the weekend course.

He said the training addressed both vehicles on the road and batteries involved in house fires.

"I try to show them videos of not only scientific things that are coming out to show what lithium-ion batteries do in a house, but then I also show real-life videos," Shoemaker said.

"Because we're having a lot of people encounter these fires, not only in cars out on the street, but you know, scooters, e-bikes inside of a home."

Shoemaker warned that batteries can turn a regular house fire into a "nightmare" for firefighters as the flames burn with more intensity, and they also have the side effect of emitting toxic gases.

"Our bunker gear is not rated for the intensity of the flames that come off of these things, and the gases that come off of these things are very, very toxic — super, super nasty for our lungs, our skin," he said.

"And these gases carry heavy metals [that] are traced back to cancerous cells that could kill us — maybe not immediately, [but] maybe end our life earlier."

More

Maritime firefighters train on tackling electric vehicle and battery fires

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.

George Washington

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