Fed Day One. Trump To London. Stocks To The Moon.

Baltic Dry Index. 2153 +27             Brent Crude 67.61

Spot Gold 3684                   US 2 Year Yield 3.54 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 37.486 trillion

US GDP 30.269 trillion.

I can measure the motion of bodies but I cannot measure human folly.

Isaac Newton

It is Fed day one. President Trump arrives in London this evening for UK State visit two. In the stock casinos the Great AI Bubble finally reaches the moon.

What could possibly go wrong?  See the LIR weekend’s technology section for some of the probabilities.

London Irvine Report: Special Update 13/09/2025 AI - Garbage In, Garbage Out. UK GDP

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 breaches 45,000 mark to hit a fresh high

Published Mon, Sep 15 2025 7:59 PM EDT

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 surpassed the 45,000 mark for the first time, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets Monday, after President Donald Trump said that the U.S.-China trade negotiations in Spain were progressing well.

The trade talks were overshadowed by a “framework” deal regarding the divestment of Chinese-owned TikTok, announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Monday. Speaking from Madrid, Bessent noted that the commercial terms have already been settled.

Both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will speak on Friday to discuss the terms.

Japan’s Topix gained 0.41% to an all-time high of 3,172.33.

South Korea’s Kospi continued to rise to notch its second day of record high, after the government reversed its plan to hike capital gains tax on stocks Monday. Among the top gainers on the index were car dealer Kolon Mobility Group, which rose 29.91%, Il Dong Pharmaceutical, which increased 18.16%, and instant noodles company Nongshim, which was up 16.78%.

Meanwhile, the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.18%.

Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 climbed 0.26%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index reversed course to decline 0.13%, and the mainland’s CSI 300 retreated 0.28%.

Overnight in the U.S., major averages closed higher as investors braced for a key Federal Reserve meeting this week.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to 6,615.28, marking its first close above 6,600. The Nasdaq Composite also advanced to a new all-time high, rising 0.9% to 22,348.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain, gaining 49.23 points, or 0.1%, to end the day at 45,883.45.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 breaches 45,000 mark to hit a fresh high

S&P 500 closes above 6,600 for the first time after Trump’s positive comments on China trade talks, gain in Tesla: Live updates

Updated Mon, Sep 15 2025 4:47 PM EDT

Stocks rose Monday after President Donald Trump said that U.S.-China trade negotiations were going well. Investors also braced for a key Federal Reserve meeting this week.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to 6,615.28, marking its first close above 6,600. The Nasdaq Composite also advanced to a new all-time high, rising 0.9% to 22,348.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain, gaining 49.23 points, or 0.1%, to end the day at 45,883.45.

Top U.S. and Chinese officials for a second day discussed tariff rates and a deadline for the sale of Chinese-owned social media TikTok. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the meeting between officials had been positive and that a deal “was also reached on a ‘certain’ company that young people in our Country very much wanted to save,” potentially referring to TikTok. The U.S. will go ahead on its TikTok ban if China does give up its demands for reduced tariffs and tech restrictions, Reuters reported on Monday, citing a a senior U.S. official with knowledge of negotiations.

As talks between the countries continued, China’s market regulator said Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law and that it would continue its probe into the chipmaker. The chipmaker bucked the broader trend of the Magnificent Seven, closing just below the flatline.

Tesla shares jumped 3% after CEO Elon Musk disclosed an insider purchase of the stock worth about $1 billion, his largest buy in the open market ever and his first significant purchase since 2020. Traders took the buy as a vote of confidence by Musk in the company, which is attempting to turn its focus towards robotics as electric vehicle competition has intensified.

Monday’s gains come after the latest economic data showing a weakening labor market and tame inflation spurred hopes the Fed will cut interest rates when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday. The market was last pricing in a 95.8% certainty that the central bank will lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, with a meager 4.2% likelihood of a steeper half percentage point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“The market is fully expecting the Fed to start a series of rate cuts at this week’s meeting,” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, said. “Much of today’s action is traders getting positioned for Wednesday’s announcement. This could be a “Buy the rumor, sell the fact” event but it is safe to say market participants likely to not want to go into Wednesday short the SPX.”

Lower rates could continue to support the stock market, which has received a boost from investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, and despite risks to the economic outlook. Investors will also be watching the Senate to see if Stephen Miran will be sworn in as a Fed governor in time for this week’s FOMC meeting.

Stock market today: Live updates

CNBC Daily Open: Surge in most tech lifts the S&P 500 beyond 6,600 level

Published Mon, Sep 15 2025 9:15 PM EDT

Congratulations are due to Alphabet for joining the $3 trillion club, to which only Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia have memberships. The Google parent has artificial intelligence —what else? — to thank for its inclusion in that rarefied space.

Ironically, it isn’t because Google’s AI offerings have been blowing investors away. (I heard Gemini can teach me how to take better photos on Google’s Pixel smartphone.) It’s the fact that Google has been falling behind AI companies such as OpenAI and Perplexity — which allowed it to escape divesting its Chrome browser in a recent antitrust ruling — that gave its shares a nice bump this month

If AI isn’t having the desired effect on stocks, there’s nothing that good old cash won’t solve. Tesla shares jumped Monday after its CEO Elon Musk disclosed a $1 billion purchase of the stock, erasing the company’s losses for the year. Elsewhere, shares of CoreWeave popped 7.6% after the cloud infrastructure provider announced an order of at least $6.3 billion from Nvidia.

Buoyed by those gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite secured new closing highs, with the former exceeding the 6,600 level for the first time. Hey Alexa, create an image of traders popping champagne in the New York Stock Exchange.

What you need to know today

U.S. has reached TikTok ‘framework’ with China. The deal involves “two private parties,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday. The presidents of both nations will meet Friday to discuss the terms.

Elon Musk reveals $1 billion stock purchase of Tesla. It’s the first time since February 2020 that Musk, CEO of Tesla, has bought shares of the company in the open market. Tesla shares jumped 3.6% after what looks to be a vote of confidence from Musk.

Alphabet’s valuation hits $3 trillion. After its shares rose 4.5%, the search giant joined the ranks of Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple. Alphabet stock experienced a significant bump in early September after a ruling from a judge in an antitrust case.

The S&P 500 closes above 6,600 for the first time. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite also closed at a fresh record, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.1%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index added 0.42%.

[PRO] A rate cut might not be unambiguously good for stocks. According to Evercore ISI, historical data from 1970 showed that the nature of the cut — “because they can” or “because they have to” — affects how stocks perform the year ahead.

Trump advocates end to quarterly earnings reports

U.S. President Donald Trump floated the idea Monday of companies no longer providing earnings report on a quarterly basis and switching to semiannual instead, saying it is “would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission told CNBC later Monday that it is actively looking into that plan.

CNBC Daily Open: Surge in most tech lifts the S&P 500 beyond 6,600 level

In other news.

The US could owe $1 trillion should the Supreme Court strike down emergency tariffs

September 14, 2025

The US could be on the hook for between $750 billion $1 trillion, if the Supreme Court overturns the president's tariffs.

Legal experts told Business Insider that this figure shouldn't factor into the Supreme Court's decision on whether the tariffs are legal, which they see as a matter concerning the Constitution.

After two lower courts ruled President Donald Trump's sweeping emergency tariffs illegal, the Supreme Court granted the administration's petition to hear and expedite the case on Wednesday.

Trump's team claimed in the petition that the economic consequences would be "ruinous" for the country should the tariffs be struck down.

"For example, delaying a ruling until June 2026 could result in a scenario in which $750 billion - $1 trillion in tariffs have already been collected, and unwinding them could cause significant disruption," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a filing submitted to SCOTUS earlier this month.

William Reinsch, the Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider he expects the Supreme Court to make a final decision before the end of the year.

"My experience with the Supreme Court is that when it comes to an economic issue, they don't always break along typical ideological lines," said Reinch. "The economic stakes here are significant in addition to the foreign policy stakes."

"I don't think it'll be unanimous," Reinsch added. "But I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this is the first big case where they go against the president."

The trillion-dollar problem

The Trump administration has imposed a range of widely changing tariffs since February under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1970s law used for economic sanctions during national emergencies.

Aside from a few industry-targeted tariffs, almost every other measure, from the short-lived, cumulative 245% tariff on China to the April 2 tariffs on more than 75 trading partners, has been enacted under the IEEPA.

Multiple lawsuits, mostly from small businesses, have since challenged the legality of these tariffs, arguing that the power to set duties belongs to Congress and cannot be delegated to the President at will. The Court of International Trade and a federal appeals court have ruled the tariffs illegal, but they remain in place after a lower court blocked an injunction to halt them.

Will Planert, a partner in international trade practice at Morris, Manning & Martin LLP, told Business Insider that he thinks at least some of the six conservative Supreme Court Justices would be disturbed by the idea of expanding presidential power over economic decisions, as it would grant future presidents such powers too.

"In Biden's attempt to modify the student loan program, for example," said Planert, "Those justices have been very skeptical of the idea that Congress can confer very broad economic powers on the president or the federal agencies."

Planert added that although he doubts that the government losing the sum of money it did not have just half a year ago would be "ruinous," any amount of fiscal disturbances should not be taken into consideration when the decision should rely on the Constitution.

According to the Tax Foundation, an independent tax policy research group, Trump's imposed tariffs would raise $2.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade, and reduce the GDP by 0.9%, before taking foreign retaliation into account.

"If the tariffs are illegal, then they are illegal irrespective of fiscal impact," said Planert. "In that case, the government would have collected a very large amount of money that it's not entitled to, which would be all the more reason to have it returned."

More

The US could owe $1 trillion should the Supreme Court strike down emergency tariffs

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Moody's Mark Zandi Warns Of 'Uncomfortably High' 48% Probability Of US Recession In Next 12 Months

September 15, 2025

The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics.

Moody’s Predicts 48% Chance Of Recession

Zandi shared this concerning forecast on X, citing Moody’s newly unveiled leading economic indicator, which is derived from a machine learning algorithm. While historically such high probabilities haven’t always led to a recession, the current figure represents an unprecedented level of risk.

His latest warning builds upon his persistent concerns about a deteriorating labor market, which he has described as being in a “jobs recession.”

Shrinking Workforce Signals Looming Economic Recession

Earlier this month, he pointed to revisions in June’s data revealing a shrinking workforce for the first time since 2020. “The US economy has entered a jobs recession,” Zandi reiterated on Sept. 5th, noting that “hiring has flatlined and momentum has all but vanished.”

The Moody’s economist has been sounding the alarm on the economy’s precarious position, famously comparing it to someone “clinging to the edge of a cliff.” He elaborated, “We had 10 fingers on the edge of the cliff a couple months ago, we now [have] seven fingers. A couple more fingers and then we're going over the edge.”

No Layoffs Is A Good Sign

A critical factor for Zandi is the current absence of widespread layoffs. “These downward revisions and outright job losses are coming without a significant increase in layoffs,” he explained. However, this could soon change: “If businesses start laying [people] off, then I think this will not just be a jobs recession, will be an overall economic downturn.”

Further compounding the risk, Zandi had previously assessed that states accounting for nearly a third of the national output were already either in or at high risk of recession, with another third merely holding steady. He particularly highlighted concentrated weakness around the Washington D.C. area, attributing it to significant federal workforce cuts.

Markets Have Factored In The September Cuts

While anticipated interest rate cuts following recent job reports might offer some relief, Zandi cautioned that much of this benefit has already been factored into market expectations. “A lot of the benefit of the lower rates is already in the [market] because investors anticipated the rate cuts,” he stated.

Despite the historical precedent of avoiding recession at this probability level, Zandi’s consistent warnings underscore a deeply concerning outlook for the coming year.

Moody's Mark Zandi Warns Of 'Uncomfortably High' 48% Probability Of US Recession In Next 12 Months

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

But what about the battery fire risk?

The $1bn battery: record-sized plant will store North Sea wind power

Project will site huge BESS deployment inland from North Sea coast as key plank of UK green power plans

Published 10 September 2025, 10:01

Work will start on the world’s most powerful battery to store wind and other renewables after its developer secured more than $1bn of debt and equity funding.

The Thorpe Marsh project will deploy 1.4GW/3.1GWh of battery storage at a disused coal power site in northeast England, the regional hub for many of the UK’s largest North Sea wind farms.

Developer Fidra Energy today said it secured £445m ($601m) to help build the project from investment group EIG and the UK’s National Wealth Fund.

That adds to £594m in loans from a group of international lenders, adding up to “the largest standalone BESS [battery energy storage system] project financed globally”, said a statement.

Construction of the project – which will use batteries supplied by China’s Sungrow – will start immediately with an objective to be operational from mid-2027.

The scale of the project – according to analyst group BNEF the world’s most powerful BESS facility to secure finance so far – is crucial to the UK’s ambitions to hit a 95% decarbonised grid by 2030.

Fidra has already agreed deals with power groups EDF, Octopus Energy and Statkraft for around 80% of the Thorpe Marsh project’s capacity and has a 15-year deal under the UK’s capacity market incentive scheme.

The location of Thorpe Marsh in Doncaster, around 70km from the North Sea coast, was flagged as crucial when the project was unveiled in 2022.

Managing supplies from the huge but variable output from the UK’s North Sea turbines is a major challenge for its power system, reflected by the role of the government’s NWF.

“The NWF is set to play a meaningful part in helping the UK achieve its clean energy ambitions, through our support for this and other key projects. Our investment highlights our role as a significant player in the storage sector,” said NWF CEO Ian Brown.

Fidra, which is owned by giant US investment firm EIG, is also planning another vast BESS project at West Burton, Nottinghamshire.

Between them the developer reckons the two projects could meet 11% of the extra storage capacity needed to meet the UK’s 2030 clean power ambitions.

The $1bn battery: record-sized plant will store North Sea wind power | Recharge

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Thinking is hard work; that's why so few do it.

Albert Einstein