Baltic
Dry Index. 2203 -02 Brent Crude 67.09
Spot Gold 3691 US 2 Year Yield 3.57 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.511 trillion
US GDP 30.282 trillion.
"This is a great day for France!"
President Richard Nixon while attending the funeral of French President Charles de Gaulle in 1970
Today as we in the northern hemisphere welcome the Autumn equinox, in far away from reality in Manhattan Island, stolen from some native Americans, who didn’t actually own it, for a handful of beads and a few mirrors, the Great and the Not So Good, assemble in the UN’s General Assembly, to Harang the rest of us with their grievances and expectations of handouts.
Such is life in the 21st century.
Back in the far from reality stock casinos, it’s almost time to dress up stocks and stock indexes for the fast-arriving month-end valuations. Many a professional money managers bonus depends on getting the month-end right.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as China holds
loan prime rates steady for fourth month
Published Sun, Sep 21 2025 7:46 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher
Monday, tracking Wall Street’s gains on Friday stateside, as investors assessed
China’s key lending rate decision.
China’s CSI 300 opened flat after its
central bank kept the loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for the fourth
month in a row, in line with a Reuters poll. The decision to stand pat comes
after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its rates by 25 basis points last week.
The People’s Bank of China kept the
one-year LPR unchanged at 3.0% while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%,
according to a statement Monday. The one-year LPR influences most new and
outstanding loans, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of
mortgages.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.3%,
while the Hang Seng Tech Index declined 0.47%.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 1.28%,
while the Topix index advanced 0.8%. The 10-year Japanese Government Bonds rose
0.67% to 1.650, the highest level since July 2007.
South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.71%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.9% higher.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 increased
0.49%.
U.S. equity futures were little changed in
early Asian hours following a strong week for the major averages. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs as the Fed’s
rate cut set in investors’ minds.
Markets are now pricing in two more
quarter-point cuts between now and the end of the year, according to the CME
FedWatch Tool.
On Friday stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
172.85 points, or 0.37%, to close at 46,315.27, reaching a fresh record high.
The S&P 500 settled
up 0.49% at 6,664.36, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.72% to finish at 22,631.48.
Asia
markets mostly rise as China keeps loan prime rates unchanged
Stock futures are little changed after Dow,
S&P 500 hit fresh records: Live updates
Updated Sun, Sep 21 2025 6:21 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures were little changed
Sunday night following a strong week for the major averages, in which the Dow
Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs.
Dow futures fell by 51 points, or 0.11%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.13% and 0.15%,
respectively.
The stock market posted a solid weekly
advance. The S&P 500 and Dow rose 1.2% and 1%, respectively, for the week.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 2.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 also surged 2.2%,
posting its seventh straight week of gains.
Those moves come after the Federal Reserve
last week cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, the first reduction
since December. It was a widely anticipated decision that, after some initial
volatility, investors eventually took to mean the central bank has taken a
dovish tilt amid rising signs of a slowing labor market.
Markets are now pricing in two more
quarter-point cuts between now and the end of the year, according to the CME
FedWatch Tool. Investors will review upcoming macroeconomic data with even more
care to ensure that the expected path of monetary easing remains intact.
“With equities near the highs and rates
markets still pricing in [roughly] 5x additional cuts over the next year,
further support for equities will hinge more on robust incoming macro data than
on more dovishness in rates, in our view,” Barclays head of European equity
strategy Emmanuel Cau wrote on Friday.
The coming week will bring the latest
personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation
measure — which is expected to show elevated pricing pressures. Investors
expect inflation to remain tame enough for the Fed to maintain its current
stance on monetary policy.
Stock
market today: Live updates
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. inflation report on Friday
will tell if rate cut was a good idea
Published Sun, Sep 21 2025 9:23 PM EDT
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures
price index for August comes out Friday. The Federal Reserve will hope the
report shows headline inflation is either in line or below economists’ forecast
of 2.8% for the year. Any higher, and investors might start worrying that the
Fed’s quarter-point cut last week was premature and could allow inflation to
sink its claws into the economy again.
Indeed, the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys rose
following the rate cut — rather counterintuitively, since they tend to follow
the direction in which interest rates move. Of course, there are other factors
that influence yields, such as the level of government debt and fiscal policy.
Hence, movement by Treasurys could suggest that the bond market was not
convinced the current economic situation in the U.S. warrants a cut.
The stock market, however, seemed to have
brushed off those concerns. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
at another record. Moreover, all three major U.S. indexes had a strong showing
for the week, with the Nasdaq
Composite climbing 2.2%.
Hindsight clarifies decisions. It grants
one the power to gloat, “I told you so,” or inflict an embarrassment that
will keep
one awake at 2 a.m. Fingers crossed that, for the Fed, hindsight is
2.8%/2.8%.
What you need to know today
Trump and Xi talk TikTok deal
Friday. The
U.S. and China said progress was made even though no agreement
was reached. The White House on Saturday added that the U.S. will mostly
“control” the app; on Sunday, Trump said the Murdochs
will likely be involved in the deal.
An annual $100,000 fee for U.S. H-1B
visas. Trump
announced Friday a plan to
impose a hefty fee on passes. The H-1B visas are largely issued to foreign
workers in specialized fields — and Big Tech companies are scrambling
to manage any fallout.
South Korea could face a crisis because of
U.S. investment. That’s according to President Lee Jae
Myung, who told Reuters on Friday that without a currency swap, a $350 billion
investment in the U.S. — part of the countries’ trade deal — could rock
South Korea’s economy.
More
CNBC
Daily Open: U.S. inflation report on Friday will tell if rate cut was a good
idea
Wall Street Week Ahead
Sep. 21, 2025 6:10 AM ET
Wall Street has a fairly busy week to look
forward to, with plenty of Federal Reserve speakers on the docket, a host of
economic data, and some quarterly earnings.
The Fed finally cut interest rates after nearly nine months of inaction on
monetary policy. Market participants will get a chance to hear more on the
decision from a host of speakers this week, including Chair Jerome Powell,
newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, and Vice Chair for
Supervision Michelle Bowman.
Turning to the economic calendar, on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics will release the third and final estimate of Q2 GDP growth. That
will be followed by the August personal income and outlays release on Friday -
a report that will also contain a reading on the core personal consumption
expenditures price index, a measure widely seen as the Fed's preferred
inflation gauge.
Looking at earnings, memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU) will highlight
the names reporting this week.
Wall Street Week
Ahead | Seeking Alpha
In other news.
From shopping carts to superchips: Alibaba
rediscovers edge with bold billion-dollar AI pivot
Published Sat, Sep 20 2025 3:16 AM EDT
BEIJING — After helping shape the early
years of Chinese e-commerce, followed by years of management
missteps,
Alibaba is betting big on artificial intelligence as it takes on a new era.
This month, Alibaba led a roughly $100
million investment round in humanoid startup X
Square Robot,
and put $60 million into the startup behind AI video generation app PixVerse.
The tech giant also announced a strategic AI partnership with smartphone
company Honor.
Since Nov. 2022 — just as OpenAI launched
ChatGPT for consumers — Alibaba has joined deals worth more than $3.3 billion,
ranging from AI model startups Moonshot and MiniMax to robotics startup Limx
Dynamics, according to CNBC analysis of PitchBook data.
The Hangzhou-based company is also
investing heavily in-house. In February, it announced plans to spend 380
billion yuan ($53.42 billion) in AI and cloud infrastructure over the next
three years. More than 100 billion yuan has already gone into AI infrastructure
and research in the past year, said Wei Sun, principal analyst at Counterpoint
Research.
“Alibaba is positioning itself as China’s
most aggressive AI investor,” said Sun. “This level of spending is
unprecedented among private Chinese firms and rivals the capex trajectories of
U.S. tech titans.”
Alibaba could join a handful of U.S.
companies and reach a $1 trillion market capitalization in five years, up from
less than $400 billion today, said Matthew Peterson, managing partner at
Peterson Capital Management.
Investors have cheered. The company’s
U.S.-traded shares have surged by more than 90% year-to-date. The latest gains
came after Alibaba secured a major
Chinese telecommunications customer for its AI chips through its cloud
computing unit.
″[Alibaba’s investment in AI is] a massive
commitment that’s already yielding tangible returns,” Sun added, referring to
recent financial statements and stock gains.
In the latest quarter, Alibaba’s cloud
computing services saw revenue surge by 26% to
33.4 billion yuan,
driven by increased demand for running AI models. It’s a comeback after Alibaba
scrapped plans to list the cloud unit in November 2023, citing uncertainties
over U.S. export controls on AI chips to China, while making several
cloud-related management changes.
“It’s a sea change,” said Duncan
Clark, an early advisor to Alibaba and now chairman of Beijing-based
investment advisor BDA, adding that, “I feel like the company has sharpened its
execution and much clearer focus.”
“Their key competitive edge is they have
massive amounts of data and also the cloud side of things,” he said. “The
combination of those things puts them in a very strong position... to reinvent
their businesses using AI.”
More
Once an e-commerce
giant, Alibaba bets future on billion-dollar AI overhaul
Trump to impose $100,000 fee per year for H-1B
visas, in likely blow to tech
Published Fri, Sep 19 2025 3:51 PM EDT Updated
Fri, Sep 19 2025 6:56 PM EDT
The Trump administration said on Friday it
would ask companies to pay $100,000 per year for H-1B worker visas,
potentially dealing a big blow to the technology sector that relies heavily on
skilled workers from India and China.
Since taking office in January, Trump has
kicked off a wide-ranging immigration crackdown, including moves to limit some
forms of legal immigration. The move to reshape the H-1B visa program
represents his administration’s most high-profile effort so far to rework
temporary employment visas.
“A hundred thousand dollars a year for
H1-B visas, and all of the big companies are on board. We’ve spoken to them,”
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Friday.
“If you’re going to train somebody, you’re
going to train one of the recent graduates from one of the great universities
across our land. Train Americans. Stop bringing in people to take our jobs,” he
said.
Tech industry vs. Trump
Trump’s threat to crack down on H1-B visas
has become a major flashpoint with the tech industry, which contributed
millions of dollars to his presidential campaign.
Critics of the program, including many
U.S. technology workers, argue that it allows firms to suppress wages and
sideline Americans who could do the jobs. Supporters,
including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, say it brings in highly
skilled workers essential to filling talent gaps and keeping firms competitive.
Musk, himself a naturalized U.S. citizen born in South Africa, has held an
H-1B visa.
Adding new fees “creates disincentive to
attract the world’s smartest talent to the U.S.,” said Deedy Das, partner at
venture capital firm Menlo Ventures, on X. “If the U.S. ceases to attract the
best talent, it drastically reduces its ability to innovate and grow the
economy.”
The new fee could significantly push up
costs for companies, particularly smaller tech firms and start-ups.
India accounts for most H1-B visas
Roughly two-thirds of jobs secured through
the H1-B program are computer-related, government figures show, but employers
also use the visa to bring in engineers, educators and healthcare workers.
India was the largest beneficiary of
H-1B visas last year, accounting for 71% of approved beneficiaries, while
China was a distant second at 11.7%, according to government data.
In the first half of 2025,
Amazon.com had more than 10,000 H-1B visas approved, while
Microsoft and Meta Platforms META.O had over 5,000
H-1B visa approvals each.
Shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions
Corp CTSH.O, an IT services company that relies extensively on
H-1B visa holders, as well as U.S.-listed shares of Indian tech firms
Infosys INFY.K and Wipro WIT.N closed between 2% and 5%
lower.
Microsoft declined comment.
More
Trump to impose
$100,000 fee for H-1B worker visas, White House says
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Famed
strategist Albert Edwards shares 3 concerning charts showing the US economy may
be on the cusp of recession
September
20, 2025
Wall
Street economists and investors seem mostly sanguine about the US economy's
chances of avoiding a recession in the months ahead.
This
is despite the fact that the labor market seems to be on a losing streak
lately. Though the unemployment has stayed relatively low, payroll growth in
the US has been under 100,000 new jobs per month for four months now, which has
historically happened during recessionary periods. The Bureau of Labor
Statistics said earlier this month that it overstated the number of jobs added
in the last 12 months by 911,000.
Albert
Edwards, the self-styled
uber-bear strategist
at Société Générale, says there is reason to be worried.
In
a note to clients this week, Edwards shared a few concerning charts on the
state of the labor market, all of them showing that a recession could be on our
doorstep.
The
first shows a model from Moody's, shared by their chief economist Mark
Zandi,
who recently said that recession odds are "uncomfortably high."
As
of August, the model put the chance of a recession at 48%. Historically, a
recession has unfolded after crossing the 50% mark. The model considers
movement in economic gauges like the unemployment rate, the Treasury yield
curve, and the inflation rate.
"If
I were to forecast that there is a recession just around the corner, you would
be right to be sceptical given that my recent track record has been poor,"
Edwards wrote. "But Mark Zandi is not noted for being an uber bear, so his
chart deserves close attention. One thing I would note though is that the
maximum probability this model ever reaches is around 62%, even when the
economy is in the depths of recession. So, a 48% probability seems really
pretty darn high to me!"
The
second chart shows the unemployment rate alongside its 36-month moving average.
When unemployment moves upward across its moving average, a recession has
usually been underway.
"It
shows that when the U3 unemployment rate rises above the 36-month moving
average, a recession always follows shortly after - or at
least this has been the case historically," Edwards wrote, the emphasis
his. "The most 'recent' 'cross-over' occurred in May of last year and the
recession seems far slower arriving compared to historical trends."
Finally,
Edwards shared a chart showing the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions
Indicator. It has been in sharp decline over the last few years, which has
corresponded with economic downturns in the past. The model looks at 24 labor
indicators, including the quits rate, the unemployment rate, weekly hours
worked, average wages, unemployment claims, job availability, and more.
Uncharacteristically,
stocks are up over the last few years while the Kansas City Fed model has
fallen. While economic fundamentals appear to be softening, demand for AI
technology has boosted earnings of the mega-cap tech firms that drive the
market.
Despite
the alarming indicators above, some of the hard labor market data have been
resilient. For example, initial and continuing unemployment claims are still
historically low.
The
Fed also moved to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 at its
September meeting, citing a weaker job market. The move aims to stimulate
economic activity and support the labor market. The central bank projects two
more 25-basis-point rate cuts are coming this year.
Low-income
Americans slash spending, a worrying sign for the economy
September
20, 2025
Although
investors cheered the Federal Reserve’s recent rate
cut and
the stock market has kept powering
along,
the economy is facing growing headwinds on one crucial front — consumer
spending.
Americans’
long-running spending boom is showing signs of faltering as consumers of all
income levels scale back and hold out for discounts, leaving the economy on
shaky ground. This shift is most pronounced among lower-income consumers, who
are disproportionately vulnerable to rising prices and other economic pressures
eroding their purchasing power, industry analysts say.
“U.S.
consumer spending is not just softening overall, it’s doing so in a fragmented
way … and that’s a real problem,” said Claire Li, a Moody’s vice president of
credit strategy. “If the benefits and the pressures are not shared broadly,
then we’re not looking at a balanced or a healthy state of the U.S. consumer
base.”
Working-class
Americans — already up against waning wage growth and rising housing and
electricity costs — are easily burned by any increase in grocery prices and
tariff-fueled increases on household staples, apparel and furniture, according
to recent Moody’s Ratings report. They’re increasingly dipping into their
savings, racking up more debt, and pulling back on discretionary spending,
according to recent government data, analyst reports and retail executives.
Meanwhile,
those in the middle- and upper-income tiers are being more strategic about when
to make big purchases, buying in bulk and shopping at cheaper retailers, said
Mickey Chadha, a Moody’s retail analyst and vice president. Walmart, Dollar General
and Dollar Tree have told investors that they’ve picked up share among
wealthier consumers looking for bargains. And sales in the luxury
sector are
weakening as customers grow increasingly fed up with brands charging higher
prices without notably improving quality and offering compelling new
merchandise.
High
earners are still largely holding up consumer spending, which accounts for
about 70 percent of the gross domestic product. But it’s become a narrower
base: The top 10 percent of earners — making $250,000 or more annually —
accounted for 49.2 percent of spending in the second quarter, according to
Moody’s Analytics. That’s up from 45.8 percent during the same period two years
ago.
And
that won’t be enough to shield the U.S. economy, said Marshal Cohen, chief
retail adviser at market research firm Circana.
“When
the lower income falls behind their spending power of previous years, it’s not
easy to make up the difference,” he said. “It adds up. It’s hard to get equal
growth to match up to the decline that occurs when lower income consumers pull
back.”
more
Low-income
Americans slash spending, a worrying sign for the economy
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Pop-out car door handles could finally disappear for good –as
Tesla responds to global backlash about their safety
September 19, 2025
Tesla was arguably the first major
automotive brand to introduce electronic door handles back in 2012, when the
style-forward mechanism on the Model S remained flush to the body work and then
magically popped-out whenever the vehicle is unlocked.
In the US, the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened an investigation into around 174,000
Tesla Model Y cars from the 2021 Model Year following several complaints from
owners that they were unable to unlock the doors after stopping, according to
the Financial Times.
There have been cases where occupants
have become trapped inside Teslas after the onboard 12V battery has died.
Unless the owners are familiar with the emergency release protocol, a number of
cases have had to resort to breaking windows.
Tesla has now responded, telling Bloombergthat
it's redesigning its door handles to make them more intuitive for people in
"a panic situation".
This update will apparently combine the
electronic and manual door-release mechanisms into one button, with Tesla
design chief Franz von Holzhausen saying "we’ll have a really good
solution for that" in response to those potential Chinese regulations,
too.
VW boss says no to flush door handles
Thomas Schäfer, the CEO of Volkswagen
passenger cars, has gone on record to say flush door handles look nice but are
“terrible to operate”.
Speaking at the IAA Mobility show, Schäfer was ramming home the importance of functions being easy for
customers to use. “We definitely have proper door handles on the cars and
customers appreciate it,” he added.
Aside from offering minuscule
improvements in aerodynamic performance, flush door handles are largely a
styling or design choice, offering a touch of technological theatre that many
customers have been convinced by.
But they are awful to use, often get
completely stuck when frozen, with the potential to trap small fingers inside
the mechanism.
I took custody of a Porsche Taycan Turbo
for a couple of weeks this year and experienced pinched digits on multiple
occasions.
Similarly, I also experienced the door
handles completely freezing shut on an XPeng G6, having to head indoors for a
jug of hot water just to get into the vehicle. I've also been trapped inside an
early Tesla Model X, but that's another story.
Granted, this issue isn’t limited to
just fully flush door handles, but it is exacerbated by a feature that isn’t
entirely necessary.
Now, we could see authorities clamping
down on grounds of safety, killing off a major automotive annoyance for
good. Hallelujah.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
"I was under medication when I made the decision to burn
the tapes.''
President Richard Nixon, a man in control of nuclear weapons.
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