Saturday, 6 September 2025

Special Update 06/09/2025 A US Jobs Collapse. The Trump Slump?

Baltic Dry Index. 1979 +16          Brent Crude 65.50

Spot Gold 3587                U S 2 Year Yield 3.51 -0.08 

US Federal Debt. 37.324 trillion

US GDP 30.248 trillion

The stock market and economy are two different things.

Milton Friedman

As goes America, so goes the world.  Hopefully not.

Look away from US Treasury yields and the gold price now.

Stocks close lower as slowing labor market boosts rate cut hopes but fans economic fears

Updated Fri, Sep 5 2025 4:20 PM EDT

Stocks closed lower on Friday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report gave way to worries about a slowing U.S. economy, even as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut were solidified.

The S&P 500 finished the day down 0.32% at 6,481.50, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.03% to settle at 21,700.39. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 220.43 points, or 0.48%, at 45,400.86.

All three leading indexes had reached fresh record intraday highs earlier in the session. At their peaks, the broad market index, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the blue-chip Dow were up about 0.5%, 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.

The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That’s below the 75,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations.

The report supported expectations for at least a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed at its meeting later this month. Traders also put a half-point rate cut into play, per the FedWatch tool.

“Slower job gains, combined with an uptick in the unemployment rate and moderating wage growth, support the view that the rate of positive change in the labor market has slowed significantly,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “These employment data give the Fed all the reasons it needs to shift its balance of risks and lower rates in two weeks.”

Investors were heading into the August nonfarm payrolls report with stocks coming off of a fresh record. They are betting rate cuts will recharge an economy that is flagging but still in no danger of a recession. Though, these latest jobs figures, where the June payrolls number was revised to show the first job loss since the pandemic, may start to raise recessionary concerns.

Even with Friday’s losses, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq still finished the week with gains, rising 0.33% and 1.14%, respectively. The Dow, however, saw losses on the week, finishing down 0.32% in the period.

JPMorgan and Wells Fargo paced the negative reversal on fears a slowing economy may hit loan growth. Industrials Boeing and GE Aerospace also got hit, as a troubled economy could dampen order growth.

However, Broadcom was a standout performer, with the stock popping 9.4% on the heels of the chipmaker’s latest quarterly results beating Wall Street’s expectations. Nvidia shares dropped 2.7%, as Broadcom’s strong results may signal there’s growing competition for the AI darling. Palantir, another artificial intelligence favorite that’s been under pressure of late, slid about 2%.

Stock market news for Sept. 5, 2025

US hiring stalls with employers reluctant to expand in an economy grown increasingly erratic

Updated 9:46 PM GMT+1, September 5, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — The American job market, a pillar of U.S. economic strength since the pandemic, is crumbling under the weight of President Donald Trump’s erratic economic policies.

Uncertain about where things are headed, companies have grown increasingly reluctant to hire, leaving agonized jobseekers unable to find work and weighing on consumers who account for 70% of all U.S. economic activity. Their spending has been the engine behind the world’s biggest economy since the COVID-19 disruptions of 2020.

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. employers — companies, government agencies and nonprofits — added just 22,000 jobs last month, down from 79,000 in July and well below the 80,000 that economists had expected.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% last month, also worse than expected and the highest since 2021.

“U.S. labor market deterioration intensified in August,’' Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Market, wrote in a commentary, noting that hiring was “slumping dangerously close to stall speed. This raises the risk of a harder landing for consumer spending and the economy in the months ahead.’'

Alexa Mamoulides, 27, was laid off in the spring from a job at a research publishing company and has been hunting for work ever since. She uses a spreadsheet to track her progress and said she’s applied for 111 positions and had 14 interviews — but hasn’t landed a job yet.

-----The U.S. job market has lost momentum this year, partly because of the lingering effects of 11 interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighters in 2022 and 2023.

But the hiring slump also reflects Trump’s policies, including his sweeping and ever-changing tariffs on imports from almost every country on earth, a crackdown on illegal immigration and purges of the federal workforce.

Also contributing to the job market’s doldrums are an aging population and the threat that artificial intelligence poses to young, entry-level workers.

After revisions shaved 21,000 jobs off June and July payrolls, the U.S. economy is creating fewer than 75,000 jobs a month so far this year, less than half the 2024 average of 168,000 and not even a quarter of the 400,000 jobs added monthly in the hiring boom of 2021-2023.

When the Labor Department put out a disappointing jobs report a month ago, an enraged Trump responded by firing the economist in charge of compiling the numbers and nominating a loyalist to replace her.

“The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder,’ Olu Sonola, head of U.S economic research at Fitch Rates, wrote in a commentary. “It’s hard to argue that tariff uncertainty isn’t a key driver of this weakness.”

Trump’s protectionist policies are meant to help American manufacturers. But factories shed 12,000 workers last month and 38,000 so far this year. Many manufacturers are hurt, not helped, by Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and other imported raw materials and components.

Construction companies, which rely on immigrant workers vulnerable to stepped-up ICE raids under Trump, cut 7,000 jobs in August, the third straight drop. The sweeping tax-and-spending bill that Trump signed into law July 4 delivered more money for immigration officers, making threats of a massive deportations more plausible.

The federal government, its workforce targeted by Trump and by billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, cut 15,000 jobs last month.

And any job gains made last month were remarkably narrow: Healthcare and social assistance companies – a category that spans hospital to daycare centers – added nearly 47,000 jobs in August and now account for 87% of the private-sector jobs created in 2025.

More

Hiring slows in US as employers navigate in growing uncertainty | AP News

US Unemployment Hits 4.3% as Deterioration Fear Grows

September 5, 2025 at 11:11 PM GMT+1

US President Donald Trump has good reason to cheer that Labor Day shortened this week by a day. That’s because the remaining four brought increasingly worse data about the economy on his watch. From manufacturing to hiring, it’s been grim tidings. And Friday’s jobs report may be the biggest hit of all.

A few years ago unemployment hovered at half-century lows. Now the dreaded percentage is at its highest point since 2021 and the depths of the pandemic. This from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an arm of the US Department of Labor where last month Trump fired the commissioner after a similarly sobering report. 

Now at 4.3%, unemployment is fanning concerns that the labor market, buffeted by both uncertainty and rising costs tied to Trump’s trade war, is nearing more significant deterioration. The figures add weight to the prior month’s jobs report, which showed a shockingly cooler hiring picture than previously thought. Job growth has moderated materially in recent months, openings have declined and wage gains have eased—all of which weigh on broader economic activity.

“The labor market is going from frozen to cracking,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a note. “This is a white-collar and a blue-collar jobs recession.” David E. Rovella

----Usually this kind of bad news for American workers has a silver lining as far as Wall Street is concerned, because it makes a rate cut by the Federal Reserve more likely. More borrowing, more growth, rising shares and the rest of it.

Only not today it seems. With a rate reduction this month seen by most as in the bag (though not by all—see below), the jobs data drove stocks lower and bonds higher on concern that the central bank may have to rush to prevent further weakness. The sharp cooling sparked a flight to Treasuries, with two-year yields hovering near the lowest since 2022. The data also prompted a fast repricing in money markets, which now project almost three Fed cuts this year. Here’s your markets wrap.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said he’s still undecided on what course of action he will support at the central bank’s Sept. 16-17 meeting, pointing to inflation data due next week. Read the Story

US Unemployment Hits 4.3% as Fear of Deterioration Grows: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg

Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hiring slowdown

Published Fri, Sep 5 2025 8:31 AM EDT

Job creation sputtered in August, adding to recent signs of labor market weakening and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for a widely anticipated interest rate cut later this month.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to rise by 75,000.

The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June after the prior estimate was lowered by 27,000.

The report was the first since President Donald Trump fired former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following the release of the July jobs report a month ago. The move came after the report showed not just a weak level of job creation but also dramatic reductions in previous months’ totals.

In McEntarfer’s place, the president nominated economist E.J. Antoni, a Trump loyalist from the Heritage Foundation who previously had criticized the BLS numbers as being politically distorted. William Wiatrowski is serving as acting BLS commissioner.

While the pace of hiring was slow, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month, meeting the estimate, though the annual gain of 3.7% was slightly below the forecast for 3.8%.

Hiring was held back by a payroll reduction in the federal government, which reported a decline of 15,000.

Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.

Jobs report August 2025:

In other news.

India to test battery storage at coal plants to balance grid as solar power surges

3 September 2025

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -India will test the installation of battery storage systems at some coal power plants, as the country grapples with integrating massive solar capacity while maintaining reliable electricity supply, an advisor to the country's power ministry said.

The concept addresses a critical challenge facing India's power grid, where thermal plants must ramp down during peak solar hours but maintain capacity for evening demand when solar generation drops.

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has been working on guidelines for coal-based power plants and technical minimum load requirements as the country rapidly expands renewable energy capacity.

India is aiming to expand its non-fossil fuel capacity to 500 GW by 2030, but coal remains central to its energy security. The government plans to increase coal-based capacity by 97 GW by 2035, taking the total to around 307 GW to ensure round-the-clock power.

"At times there are only two choices. Either you shut down the coal plant (during excess solar generation) or lose the thermal capacity in the evening, which we don't want," CEA chairman Ghanshyam Prasad told Reuters on the sidelines of PowerGen India 2025 event in New Delhi.

"We are just trying this as an experiment," he said, adding that the country's top coal power generator NTPC had been tasked with testing this at some plants and given funding support.

The batteries would allow the coal plants to capture excess energy and dispatch it to the grid at a later point when needed, allowing the plants to operate at a stable rate, saving costs and extending their lives, CEA's Prasad said.

Recently, NTPC floated a tender for setting up of 1.7 GW of battery storage across 11 coal plants.

India to test battery storage at coal plants to balance grid as solar power surges

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

The US hits a ‘turning point’ with more unemployed workers than job openings for the 1st time since April 2021

Thu, September 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM GMT+1

The U.S. economy, already plagued by tariff uncertainty and inflation concerns, received a “jolt” of bad news just days after Labor Day. For the first time since the pandemic era, the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) showed that unemployment outpaced the number of available job openings. Here’s why that spells trouble.

The stats, released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), revealed 7.18 million job openings in July — a 10 month low and a marked decrease from June’s 7.36 million openings.

Worse, the number of unemployed Americans stands at 7.2 million [1], putting the tally of those out of work slightly higher than available jobs, which hasn’t occurred since April 2021 [2]. Further still, the Hill adds that the number of open jobs fell short of what experts predicted would be around 7.3 to 7.5 million.

Oxford Economics economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote, “The July JOLTS report showed further signs of softening labor market conditions” while Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long told CBS that the numbers underscore a frozen job market [3].

“This is a turning point for the labor market,” she added. “It's yet another crack.”

Signs of economic turbulence to come?

The number of unemployed workers outpacing that of available jobs could point to significant labor market instability ahead.

To start, it’s confirmation of a troubling three-month trend that saw “an average payroll gain from May to July of only 35,000,” CBS reports. Add to that the fact that the job openings rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4% in June [4], while openings in health care and social assistance — among the most reliable and consistent job creation sectors — decreased by 181,000 in July [5].

“The main engine of job growth is seemingly stalling with job openings and hirings in healthcare at a post-pandemic low,” Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon chief economist, wrote in response to the report [6].

Other notable sector losses include arts, entertainment and recreation (-62,000) and mining and logging (-13,000).

More

The US hits a ‘turning point’ with more unemployed workers than job openings for the 1st time since April 2021

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Graphene’s Electronic Performance Soars With New Proximity Screening Technique

August 30, 2025

Scientists have pushed graphene’s performance to record levels, boosting its speed and purity with a clever trick called “proximity screening”, reducing electronic noise at the atomic scale.

In a study published in Nature, researchers demonstrated a major improvement in the electronic quality of graphene by using proximity screening, a method that enhances charge uniformity and boosts carrier mobility.

The results not only improve the reliability of graphene-based devices but also strengthen its prospects for use in advanced electronics, sensors, and quantum technologies.

Why Graphene Still Needs Help

Graphene has remarkable electrical and mechanical properties and has driven huge technological growth. But in practice, devices have struggled to match its theoretical promise. Issues like charge inhomogeneity, scattering from impurities, and defects can degrade performance and reduce mobility, which are key for any high-speed or quantum device.

To address this, the researchers turned to a combination of graphene with hexagonal boron nitride (hBN), a 2D material known for its insulating and dielectric qualities. Their goal was to create a cleaner environment for electrons to move freely and consistently. No defects, no noise. 

Related Stories

The team created double-gated Hall bar structures by sandwiching monolayer graphene between two hBN layers. The top layer served as a dielectric gate, with a graphite flake as the bottom gate. To enable proximity screening, the bottom hBN layer was made ultrathin, just 3-4 atomic layers. This setup allowed image-charge effects to smooth out potential fluctuations greater than 10 nanometres across the graphene sheet.

The entire device was assembled using van der Waals stacking techniques, with precision lithography to define its geometry. This meticulous construction helped maintain clean interfaces and limit disorder, which is essential to achieve high electronic quality.

Testing at Ultra-Low Temperatures and Fields

To assess the material's performance, researchers tested electrical measurements under a range of temperatures and magnetic fields. Hall effect measurements were used to map how electrons moved through the device under different gate voltages, revealing mobility and charge distribution.

The data showed major improvements: mobility reached as high as 5.7×10cm2/Vs at low temperatures and carrier densities around 1.5×1011 cm-2. This massive, fivefold increase over previous graphene records puts the material on par with long-standing 2D performance leaders like GaAlAs heterostructures.

More

Graphene’s Electronic Performance Soars With New Proximity Screening Technique

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. More again from the oboe king.  Approx. 10 minutes.  Sorry for the bizarre choreography.  The poor piano player wisely drew the line at joining in and pushing or pulling the grand piano around. What a shame the oboists couldn’t afford shoes or sandals and no one would lend them any. Perhaps they both have very large or very small feet?.

Tomaso Albinoni Concerto for 2 Oboes in C Major, Op. 9 No. 9

Tomaso Albinoni Concerto for 2 Oboes in C Major, Op. 9 No. 9

Next, that global debt problem. Get gold. Approx. 11 minutes.

How Global Debt Got Out of Control (And What Comes Next)

How Global Debt Got Out of Control (And What Comes Next)

Finally, more EV failure.  Approx. 10 minutes.

Electric AVIATION is the DUMBEST idea yet | MGUY Australia

Electric AVIATION is the DUMBEST idea yet | MGUY Australia

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.

Milton Friedman


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