Baltic
Dry Index. 1940 -46 Brent Crude 67.17
Spot Gold 3531 US 2 Year Yield 3.61 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 37.316 trillion
US GDP 30.244 trillion.
"We pay the debts of the last generation, by issuing bonds payable by the next generation."
Dr. Laurence J. Peter, author, The Peter Principal.
In the stock casinos, rising tension. Are global bonds signalling the arrival of a global debt crisis? What if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariffs and the US government has to refund most tariffs collected?
Will tomorrow’s US jobs report force the US central bank into cutting their key interest rate just as Trump’s tariffs inflation starts to hit? How high would gold and silver rise?
But for now, the Google – AI relief rally.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise, tracking tech
rally on Wall Street
Published Wed, Sep 3 2025 7:54 PM ED
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Thursday
following a tech rally overnight on Wall Street that lifted the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq Composite, even as growing fears around the economy weighed on equities.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 1.26%, while
the Topix index increased 0.79%. Earlier in the session, shares of Kyoto-based
Nidec Corp plunged as
much as 22.44%, after the company announced a probe into allegations of
improper accounting in its group.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200
benchmark climbed 0.64% after the country’s household spending in July rose
0.5% month on month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. This
compares to a gain of 0.3% in June. On a yearly basis, household spending
growth rose 5.1% in July, the fastest pace since November 2023.
The growth was boosted by demand for the
health, transport, miscellaneous goods and services sectors.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index
traded 0.14% higher and the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.94%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed
course and fell 1.21%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 retreated 2.47% in
volatile trading.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.82% at the
open, and the Sensex index was 0.64% higher.
Global bond markets will continue to be in
focus with long-dated borrowing costs around the world under pressure. The
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield
nudged above 5% on Wednesday morning for the first time since July after a
court ruled
that most of the Trump administration’s tariffs are illegal,
raising questions
over the future of tariff revenues.
Japan’s 30-year bond yield was at
a record
high on Wednesday, with a 100 basis point rise this year driven by high
inflation, low real rates and political uncertainty.
Overnight stateside, the three major
averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose Wednesday, boosted by tech shares
after a federal court decision in an Alphabet antitrust case
fueled optimism that the tech giants would be able to weather regulatory
threats.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained
1.03% to end the day at 21,497.73, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.51% to
finish at 6,448.26. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average lagged, falling 24.58 points, or 0.05%, to
settle at 45,271.23.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, bonds, Treasurys
US Employment Picture Darkens With New Data
September 3, 2025 at 11:51 PM GMT+1
It’s only the third day of a much-feared
month of September and
sobering US economic news is already piling up. Yesterday it was six
straight months of shrinking manufacturing. Today it’s job openings falling
in July to the lowest in 10 months, adding to other employment data (including
a report last month that caused Donald Trump to fire
the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics) showing America’s once-robust
post-pandemic jobs landscape continues to darken.
Even worse, the sectors most responsible
for the new numbers aren’t cyclical and had
been recent drivers of growth. Available positions decreased to 7.18
million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, according to data
published Wednesday by the BLS, a division of the US Department of Labor. The
median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.38 million
openings.
The pullback in openings was driven by
health care, retail trade and leisure and hospitality. Vacancies in health
care, which has been a major source of new jobs this year, dropped to the
lowest level since 2021.
And that’s not the end of it. Also on
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reported “flat to declining
consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up
with rising prices.” The Fed also stated that “nearly
all districts noted tariff-related price increases” with many saying
“tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs.” Still, all this
dour data is good news for Wall Street, inasmuch as it pushes a rate
cut closer
to a fait accompli. —David
E. Rovella
US
Employment Picture Darkens With New Data: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
CNBC Daily Open: Investors bet on Fed
cuts, but labor data cuts deeper
Published Wed, Sep 3 2025 9:34 PM EDT
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite
climbed Wednesday, powered by tech shares after a federal court decision
allowed Google to keep its Chrome browser.
Optimism around a looming rate cut by the
Federal Reserve also buoyed markets, with the CME Fedwatch tool indicating a
96.6% chance of a Fed rate cut in its September meeting later this month.
However, weak economic data seems to hang
like a dark cloud over investors. Job openings ticked down in July to levels
rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, bolstering fears of cooling in the
labor market.
The Job
Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings
in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released
Wednesday. That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the
end of 2020.
Economists also expect Thursday’s ADP
private payrolls report to show a softer print for August, and jobless claims
data is expected to show a slight uptick. The unemployment report due Friday is
forecast to show jobless rate inching up to 4.3% from 4.2%.
In short, the Fed may be ready to cut
rates, but the job market’s cutting deeper.
CNBC
Daily Open: Investors bet on Fed cuts, but labor data cuts deeper
Global bond sell-off reflects unease over budgets
and central banks
Published Wed, Sep 3 2025 6:00 AM EDT
Long-dated borrowing costs around the
world are back under pressure, and analysts say that’s in part thanks to broad
investor unease with the path of both fiscal and monetary policy in many major
economies.
Bond markets have been on a bumpy ride
this year, with massive spikes and falls at times stemming from White House
policymaking, ranging from tariffs to concerns
about the U.S. deficit related to
the “big, beautiful
tax bill.”
Moves have been more measured this week.
But several yields hit notable milestones, reigniting discussion over the
opportunities and risks in government debt.
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield nudged
above 5% on Wednesday morning for the first time since July amid questions over the
future of tariff revenues following a recent court ruling. Japan’s 30-year bond yield was at
a record high on
Wednesday,
with a 100 basis point rise this year driven by high inflation, low real rates
and political uncertainty.
The yield on U.K. 30-year bonds on Tuesday
reached its highest level
since 1998 ahead
of a highly anticipated budget set to be delivered in the coming months, and
added another 4 basis points early Wednesday. The premium on French 30-year bonds
breached a level last seen in 2008 as the government is on the brink of
collapse, putting the country’s
deficit reduction plans at risk.
German bonds, which benefited from a
flight to safety earlier in the year, joined the rout, with the 30-year bund yield notching a
14-year high.
Rate pressure
Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel
Hunt, said that while there is no crisis in the bond market, the elevated price
being paid by governments, combined with high interest rates, is an economic
problem across the advanced world.
″[High rates] constrain policy choices,
they crowd out private investment, they leave us wondering every six months
whether we’re going to face a bout of financial instability. These are really,
really bad for the private sector,” Pickering told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“I’m actually getting to the point now
where I think that austerity would be stimulative, because you would actually
give markets confidence, you would bring down these bond yields, and the
private sector would just breathe a sigh of relief and start distributing some
of its balance sheet strength.”
Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets
economist at Capital Economics, said there appears to be three overlapping
drivers between the global move higher in long-end yields: fiscal
concerns, monetary policy, and term premia effects such as supply-demand
dynamics.
Both the U.K. and France are facing a
“tricky budget arithmetic” in which “some combination of tax increases and
spending cuts are needed to keep public finances on a sustainable footing and
bond markets on side,” he said in a Tuesday note.
Market dynamics, meanwhile, suggest
wavering confidence over central banks’ “ability and willingness to keep
inflation under control in the medium term,” Goltermann continued, though he
noted the relative resilience of U.S. yields where fears over central bank
independence have become acute.
More
Global bond
sell-off reflects unease over budgets and central banks
In other news.
Rising visa costs risk accelerating US travel
decline as new fee comes into effect
September 3, 2025
Some travellers to the US could soon see
their trip become even more expensive as a new $250 (€287.6) “visa integrity
fee” will go into effect on 1 October this year.
With travel numbers to the US already
falling, this fee could further strain the country’s travel industry.
It will increase the total US visa cost to $442
(€379.2). This would make it one of the most expensive tourist visas in the
world, according to the US Travel Association, along with Australia’s visitor visa
under subclass 600, at AUD 195 (€108.9) and the UK’s six-month tourist visa at
£127 (€145.9).
With a one-week mid-range US trip costing
almost $2,000 (€1,722.1), according to money transfer comparison website Exiap,
this added visa cost could make US travel significantly more expensive for
families and group travellers in particular.
Which countries will be impacted?
The new visa integrity fee will affect
travellers from non-visa waiver countries such as Argentina, Mexico, China, Brazil
and India.
The fee is expected to hit Central and
South American countries especially hard, potentially costing the US a large
number of visitors from these places. It comes as visitor numbers from
these countries to the US have been on the rise, despite a wider global
downturn in US travel.
Mexican traveller numbers to the US rose
almost 14 per cent this year, as of May, according to the National Travel and
Tourism Office. Similarly, visitors from Brazil increased
4.6 per cent year-to-date, while Argentinian travellers surged 20 per
cent.
Overall, travel from South America to the
US rose 0.7 per cent, whereas Central American travel increased 3 per
cent.
However, with US trips
already being relatively expensive for travellers from these countries, the
visa fee increase could mean that visitors start looking at other potential
holiday destinations.
On the other hand, Indian travel numbers
to the US have dropped 2.4 per cent so far in 2025, dampened by an almost 18
per cent fall in students.
Similarly, Chinese visitor numbers to the
US were still 53 per cent below 2019 level as of July.
EU member states part of the US Visa
Waiver Program (VWP), such as Belgium, France, Germany, Austria and
Italy, among others, will not be impacted by the visa integrity fee.
These travellers can still visit the US
for business or tourism stays for 90 days or less without a visa, as long as
they have an approved Electronic System or Travel Authorisation (ESTA).
The UK will also be
exempt from the visa fee hike under the same rules.
---- US travel
continues to drop sharply in 2025
According to preliminary figures from the
US National Travel and Tourism Office, international arrivals, not including
travellers from Canada or Mexico,
fell 1.6 per cent, or more than 3 million, so far in 2025 when compared to
2024.
Foreign travel to the US also dropped 3.1
per cent on an annual basis this July to 19.2 million. This was the fifth month
that visitor numbers fell in 2025. It has countered expectations that travel
numbers would finally top pre-pandemic levels of 79.4 million this year.
Rising visa costs
risk accelerating US travel decline as new fee comes into effect
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Economist,
who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warns USA could be in recession by the
end of 2025
3
September 2025
President
Trump has consistently pointed to a thriving U.S. economy as proof of his
policies’ success.
High
GDP growth, strong investment figures, and low inflation have been used to
bolster his claims.
But
not everyone is buying it.
Mark
Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says the U.S. economy is edging
dangerously close to a downturn.
Known
for having correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, Zandi now sees a
similar storm brewing, warning a recession could arrive by late 2025.
In
an interview with Newsweek, Zandi stated: “I don’t think the economy is in a
recession, at least not at this point, but it feels like it’s on the brink.”
His
concerns aren’t speculative—they’re rooted in key economic indicators that he
says are all trending in the wrong direction.
One
of Zandi’s top concerns is jobs.
He
notes that hiring has slowed to a “virtual standstill,” based on recent payroll
reports.
While
layoffs haven’t surged yet, the slowdown is significant enough to raise alarms
about the overall health of the labor market.
According
to Zandi, the only thing keeping the economy from slipping into recession is
the absence of mass layoffs.
“That’s
the firewall between recession and no recession,” he explained.
But
he warned that firewall may not hold for long.
Zandi
urges close attention to monthly employment data.
The
moment job growth turns negative, he says, “that’s when alarm bells should
start going off.”
He
expects this shift to happen soon.
While
Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet hit American consumers hard, Zandi believes the
worst is ahead.
Many
companies have delayed passing costs on to consumers, fearing political fallout
or awaiting final tariff decisions.
Zandi
expects the annual inflation rate—currently 2.7%—to rise above 3%, and possibly
approach 4% within the next year.
He
warns that price hikes will soon be unavoidable and painfully obvious to
consumers at grocery stores, gas pumps, and retail outlets.
As
inflation bites and layoffs begin, Zandi predicts a consumer-led slowdown.
With
tighter wallets, Americans could cut back on spending, triggering even more
strain on businesses—and more layoffs in return.
This
cycle, he says, is the core danger.
Zandi
outlines a classic economic spiral: consumers spend less, businesses lay off
workers, and the resulting income loss causes even more spending cuts.
“It
becomes a self-reinforcing vicious cycle,” he said—one that could push the
economy over the edge.
More
EU
Accelerating Toward Collapse: Merz, Draghi, And Lagarde Reveal Europe's Crisis
Path
Wednesday,
Sep 03, 2025 - 07:00 AM
The
Chancellor seems to have collided with reality during the summer break. Merz
sees the German social system in deep crisis. Meanwhile, his political allies
in Brussels are calling for an increase in the very dose of poison that is
making Europe sick.
Let’s
be blunt: Large parts of the political elite have a fractured relationship with
reality. This applies equally to the economic decay of Germany and the EU, as
well as to the public communication of strategic political goals, which are
systematically obscured. Open criticism of the course could cause the political
fairy tale to collapse faster than reality seeps into public opinion.
Merz
and the Welfare State
All
the more remarkable are the warning words of Chancellor Friedrich Merz during
his Saturday appearance at the CDU state party conference in Lower
Saxony. “I am not satisfied with what we have achieved so far – it must
be more, it must be better.”
Hear
that! A faint tremor of self-criticism from the Chancellor. Rare, indeed. Yet
the statement raises the question: what exactly does Merz mean by
“achievements”? Is he referring to the so-called investment booster, supposedly
providing marginal relief to the German economy while it teeters on collapse?
Or does he mean the massive debt packages and widening financing gaps, most
likely to be closed with tax hikes?
In
his speech in
Osnabrück, Merz later spoke unusually clearly about the state of the welfare
system: “The welfare state, as we have it today, is no longer financially
sustainable given what we can deliver economically.” A blunt diagnosis, leaving
little to be desired in clarity.
There
was, however, no mention of a market-oriented turn, trust in individual
solutions, personal responsibility, or rapid bureaucratic reduction. The
message seems to be: stay the course.
Moments
of Honesty
Merz
also spoke unequivocally about citizen welfare payments: it cannot continue
like this. 5.6 million people receive the payments. Many could work but do not,
he said. A reality that politics usually avoids.
A
tentative attempt to openly name the precarious state of German social
insurance. In times when political sugar-coating is routine, it’s almost a
stroke of luck when a leading politician at least partially acknowledges
economic realities.
Have
the latest economic data perhaps shaken Merz and his colleagues in Berlin? GDP
shrank again in the second quarter, and the outlook remains bleak. With the
state intervening via massive credit programs and new debt hitting about 3.5%
this year, the private economy is contracting at 4–5%. Calling this a recession
would be euphemistic — we are in a depression.
More
EU Accelerating
Toward Collapse: Merz, Draghi, And Lagarde Reveal Europe's Crisis Path |
ZeroHedge
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Over-the-Counter Nasal Spray May Cut COVID-19 Risk by 70%, Study Finds
3 September 2025
In the near future, a
simple nasal spray in your medicine cabinet would not only ease allergy
congestion but also significantly bring down your risk of catching COVID-19.
According to a new clinical study, which is still ongoing, an over-the-counter
antihistamine nasal spray has been showing remarkable preventive effects
against coronavirus. With the cases of COVID-19 high again, experts believe
this affordable and accessible spray can offer an extra layer of protection.
According to the trial,
azelastine can cut COVID-19 infections by at least 70 per cent.
The phase 2 randomised
and placebo-controlled clinical trial led by scientists from Saarland
University in Germany says apart from keeping COVID-19 away, the spray can also
be helpful in reducing the incidence of infections with the common cold. “This
clinical trial is the first to demonstrate a protective effect in a real-world
setting,” said Dr Robert Bals, Director of Saarland’s department of
Pulmonology, Allergology, Respiratory Intensive Care and Environmental
Medicine. “Azelastine nasal spray could provide an additional easily accessible
prophylactic to complement existing protective measures, especially for
vulnerable groups, during periods of high infection rates, or before
travelling,” he added.
How was the study conducted?
For the trial, scientists
had recruited 450 healthy adults, with an average age of around 33. Almost all
the participants were vaccinated against COVID-19 and were randomly assigned to
receive either azelastine nasal spray or a placebo.
The spray was used at
least three times a day for more than 50 days. In cases of coronavirus exposure
or symptoms, participants could increase the dose to five times daily for three
days. On the sidelines, participants were also tested for COVID-19 with rapid
antigen tests, or RATs, twice weekly.
According to the trial
results, the groups with azelastine – around 2 per cent of the participants
became infected with COVID-19 as compared to 7 per cent in the placebo group.
Scientists said it meant that users of azelastine had nearly 70 per cent lower
risk of getting infected with the virus.
There were also fewer
symptomatic COVID-19 cases in the azelastine group. The trial also revealed
that overall respiratory infections in the azelastine group were 9.3 per cent
vs. 22 per cent in the placebo group.
More
Over-the-Counter Nasal Spray May Cut COVID-19 Risk by 70%, Study Finds
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Huasun achieves 34.02% efficiency for perovskite-heterojunction
solar cell
The
Chinese manufacturer said the result was achieved thanks to new perovskite
crystallization additives and high-mobility carrier transport layer materials.
September 3, 2025
Chinese solar module maker Huasun claims to have achieved a power conversion
efficiency of 34.02% for a 1 cm² tandem solar cell based on a perovskite top
cell and a silicon heterojunction (HJT) bottom device.
The company did not say if the result
was certified by an independent entity.
“At the laboratory level, the team
innovatively introduced a dual passivation strategy combining physical field
effects and chemical bonds, which significantly reduced interfacial
non-radiative recombination losses,” Huasun stated. “At the same time, by applying
new perovskite crystallization additives and high-mobility carrier transport
layer materials, along with a series of material and process improvements,
Huasun team achieved comprehensive optimization of grain orientation, energy
level alignment, and interface stability—laying a solid foundation for further
exploring efficiency limits.”
The manufacturer also claims to have
achieved an efficiency of 29.01% in a large-sized cell with the same
architecture on one of its production lines, without providing further details.
“This breakthrough was enabled by
Huasun’s large-texture thin-film deposition technology, which ensures uniform
coating on complex surfaces and overcomes key challenges in scaling perovskite
materials,” it further explained. “By introducing organic stabilizers, Huasun
improved deposition uniformity and environmental stability, while new interface
transport materials enhanced reliability and process compatibility.”
More technical information about the
cell design was not released.
In May 2024, Huasan achieved a 26.50% power conversion efficiency in an HJT solar cell based on a zero-busbar
(0BB) module technology and silver-coated copper paste with low silver content.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
"To
turn $100 into $110 is work. To turn $100 million into $110 million is
inevitable."
Edgar
Bronfman, Chairman, Seagrams .
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