Baltic
Dry Index. 2111 -01
Brent Crude 65.86
Spot Gold 3655 US 2 Year Yield 3.52 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 37.469 trillion
US GDP 30.261 trillion.
The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the cause of the destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident and removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight. The story of the ruin is simple and obvious: and instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed we should rather be surprised that it has subsisted for so long.
Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.
Another day in the Great AI stock bubble disconnect from mainstream reality.
Another day of frontrunning an expected Fed interest rate cut next week.
But will Wall Street’s maxim “buy the rumour, sell the fact” come into play next week?
Stock futures are flat after rate-cut hopes send
market to new highs: Live updates
Updated Fri, Sep 12 2025 8:15 PM EDT
Stock futures were little changed in
overnight trading Thursday after the market surged to fresh records as
investors took signs of weakening jobs and tame
inflation to mean the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next week.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial
Average were flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also trading
near the flatline.
The blue-chip Dow popped more than
600 points Thursday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7%. All three major averages closed at
record levels, and the Dow closed above 46,000 for the first time.
The
Consumer Price Index showed a month-to-month increase of 0.4% for
August, hotter than the 0.3% that economists polled by Dow Jones were
expecting. However, the index’s 2.9% rise on a 12-month basis was in line with
expectations.
The usually crucial inflation report was
overshadowed by weekly jobless claims, which showed a surprise jump to the
highest level since October 2021. Workers filing for unemployment compensation
for the week ended Sept. 6 increased 27,000 to 263,000, more than the 235,000
total expected.
“Today’s CPI report has been trumped by
the jobless claims report,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at
Principal Asset Management. “While the CPI report is a tad hotter than
expected, it will not give the Fed a moment of hesitation when they announce a
rate cut next week. If anything, the jump in jobless claims will inject a bit
more urgency in the Fed’s decision making, with [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell
likely signaling a sequence of rate cuts is on the way.”
Futures markets are pricing in a quarter
percentage point at the conclusion of Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting with near
certainty, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
All three major averages are up about 1.6%
week to date. The S&P 500 is on pace for its best weekly performance since
early August and its fifth positive week in six. The Nasdaq is on track
for its second winning week in a row, while the Dow is poised to post its
first positive week in three.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Negative US Jobs Data Keeps on Coming
September 11, 2025 at 11:01 PM GMT+1
Applications for US unemployment benefits
jumped last week to the highest
level in almost four years, indicating employers are firing more workers.
Initial claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, the highest
since October 2021, according to data from the US Department of Labor. That’s
significantly higher than the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of
economists, which predicted 235,000 applications.
Thursday’s figures are just the latest in
a quickening drumbeat of worsening news for President Donald Trump on the
economic front, from jobs to manufacturing and inflation.
Last week, a monthly report on employment showed the whole of the US added
just 22,000 jobs
in August, building on the previous month’s sobering jobs data, which spurred
Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and install
a loyalist. More recent BLS revisions also cut
by half job growth numbers during most of the last year of the Biden
Administration. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons
US
Initial Jobless Claims Jump to Highest in Almost Four Years: Evening Briefing -
Bloomberg
Rise in U.S. Inflation Is Likely to Keep Fed
Cautious on Pace of Rate Cuts
The central bank is likely to lower
borrowing costs at its meeting next week amid budding concerns about the labor
market.
Sept. 11, 2025
U.S. inflation accelerated in August at a
speed that is likely to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about lowering
borrowing costs too quickly once it restarts cuts as soon as next week.
The Consumer Price Index, released on
Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose 2.9 percent from the same time
last year, the fastest annual pace since the start of 2025.
“Core” inflation, which the central bank
tracks as a gauge of underlying inflation since it strips out volatile items
like energy and food prices, steadied at 3.1 percent.
The overall measure of inflation rose 0.4
percent for the month, slightly higher than economists had expected. The core
measure rose 0.3 percent.
The inflation data has been pivotal to the
Fed’s debate about not only when it should lower interest rates again after a
long pause but also the speed at which the central bank moves as that process
kicks off.
Officials have opted to proceed cautiously
so far this year given concerns about the effect that President Trump’s tariffs
will have on consumer prices. They have kept interest rates steady all year at
a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, after a series of reductions in the
final months of 2024. That approach has angered Mr. Trump, who wants borrowing
costs substantially lower.
The issue for the Fed is that Mr. Trump’s
levies have pushed up costs across a wide range of goods, upending earlier
progress on bringing inflation down. Declines in other categories have limited
the overall increase, helping to placate earlier fears that the resulting
inflation surge would be much more intense.
One of those offsets had been energy
prices, but those costs accelerated sharply in August. Gasoline prices jumped
1.9 percent over the month, contributing to a 0.7 percent increase in the
overall energy index. Airfares spiked 5.9 percent in August, after a 4 percent
increase the previous month.
The impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs on the
automobile sector also showed through more notably in August, with prices for
new and used vehicles rising after several months of more muted gains. The
index tracking new vehicles increased 0.3 percent in August and is up 0.7
percent from the same time last year. Prices for used vehicles rose 1 percent
and are up 6 percent from a year earlier.
Household furnishings also became more
expensive in August, as did clothing. Shelter prices rose 0.4 percent, the
largest contributor to the overall monthly increase. Food prices rose 0.5
percent over that same period, and 3.2 percent compared with last year. Coffee
prices in particular have jumped significantly: They are up nearly 21 percent
from August 2024, and in August alone rose 3.6 percent.
“Tariffs are a tax. It’s a regressive tax
that is causing a bifurcated retail community where only companies that have
decent pricing and high quality are doing well,” said Nancy Lazar, chief global
economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler. “Weak consumer spending is
going to put downward pressure on certain prices.”
More
CPI
Shows Pace of US Inflation Likely to Keep Fed Cautious on Rate Cuts - The New
York Times
Euro drops as European Central Bank holds rates
and updates projections
Published Thu, Sep 11 2025 1:10 AM EDT
LONDON — European stocks were higher on
Thursday, as investors assessed the latest interest rate decision and update
from the European Central Bank.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up
0.44% at 1:22 p.m. in London (8:22 a.m. ET) with construction stocks leading
gains, 1.1% higher. All sectors were in the green bar autos, which fell 0.24%.
The euro was 0.2% lower against the U.S.
dollar and 0.1% lower against the British pound after the European Central
Bank announced it would
hold interest rates steady, a decision widely expected by the market.
In new staff
macroeconomic projections the bank said its outlook was largely unchanged,
with headline inflation forecast to average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said
the central bank was keeping the “door open for another cut this year.”
“Risks to the growth outlook remain. While
the recent trade agreement with the U.S. offers some clarity for businesses,
higher tariffs, coupled with a stronger euro, are likely to weigh on export
growth in the second half of the year,” Selfin said in emailed comments.
More
European markets
on Thurs Sept.11: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, ECB update
In other news, the effect of one year of
extreme left-wing socialism in Britain.
Merck warns UK is ‘not internationally
competitive’ as it scraps £1bn London research centre
Wednesday 10 September 2025 5:57 pm
Merck has pulled out of a planned £1bn
London drug research centre in the latest blow to the government’s growth
agenda.
The US pharma giant is to lay off 127
staff alongside abandoning the construction project, which had been set to open
in King’s Cross in 2027. The firm warned the UK would lag behind the rest of
Europe for spending on health research unless it made conditions more
attractive to invest.
“Unless a change is made to the operating
environment, the undervaluation is corrected, and the investment is put back in
the right places, more and more companies will be making these sorts of
decisions,” Merck said.
“Simply put, the UK is not internationally
competitive.”
Industry losing patience with Labour
The move follows a similar
decision by
Cambridge-based drugmaker firm Astrazeneca earlier this year, after it walked
away from a £450m plan to expand its vaccine production facilities in the
UK.
Later in the year, Astrazeneca said
it would invest $50bn in
manufacturing and R&D in the US, adding that the decision “underpins our
belief in America’s innovation in biopharmaceuticals.” The FTSE 100 constituent
is also understood to have been considering moving its primary listing from
London to New York, a move which would deal a further blow to the UK.
Merck, known as MSD, first unveiled plans
for the new King’s Cross facility in 2017 as part of a new UK headquarters,
with construction commencing in 2023. Dozens more scientists had been expected
to be hired ahead of the centre’s opening.
Labour had vowed to make growth a central
part of its mission after entering office last year, but has so far suffered
waves of plant closures and thousands of layoffs across the country.
That includes the closure of a
Trafigura-owned biodiesel plant in Lincolnshire in February, as well as a
nearby bioethanol plant owned by ABF. A chemicals plant in Teesside closed,
leading to hundreds of job losses, while the Lindsey oil refinery collapsed
into insolvency.
Last week former Darktrace boss
Poppy Gustafsson quit as
the UK’s investment minister after just a year in the role, in signs the
government’s efforts to attract inward investment were falling on deaf ears.
Merck scraps £1bn
London research centre
US watchdog launches review into economic data
collection
10 September 2025
The US Labor Department's internal
watchdog has launched an investigation into how it gathers jobs and inflation
data after intense White House criticism of the agency.
The office of the Labor Department's
inspector general said it had launched a probe to look at the
"challenges" the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces gathering and
updating the information.
The move comes a day after the agency issued
a revision to job figures showing growth last year was far
weaker than it had previously estimated.
Last month, President Donald Trump fired the head of
the BLS,
saying without evidence that she had rigged the job numbers to make him look
bad.
In a
letter, external to acting commissioner William Wiatrowski, the
Labor Department's office of inspector general said the decision to launch the
probe was a response to the job report revisions and BLS moves to reduce
collection of price information.
It follows a Labor Department report
published on Tuesday showed that the US economy had added 911,000 fewer jobs
than initial estimates in the 12 months to March this year, a larger downward
revision than economists had expected.
The BLS has faced longstanding concerns
that a drop in initial response rates might reduce the quality of its surveys.
However, Democrats and some economists
have voiced alarm that the White House is seeking to politicise economic data.
Trump's decision to nominate conservative
economist EJ Antoni who has a reputation for partisan analysis as the new
commissioner of the BLS was widely panned.
Economists have also criticised recent
cuts to BLS panels involving outside experts and decisions to reduce collection
of price data, which had been attributed to inadequate funding and staff.
The Trump administration has maintained it
is seeking to improve the quality of the reports and modernise the office.
The office of the inspector general has
examined issues with BLS data before.
Its report in 2023, which focused on
concerns that initial response rates to BLS surveys had declined, concluded
that the agency could "do more" identify the limits of its data and
be transparent about its assumptions.
It has also examined the BLS for issues
related to its release of the data.
US watchdog launches review into
BLS data collection - BBC News
History is indeed little more than the register of the crimes, follies, and misfortunes of mankind.
Edward Gibbon
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Consumer
prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless claims jump
Published
Thu, Sep 11 2025 8:33 AM EDT
Prices
consumers pay for a variety of goods and services moved higher than expected in
August while jobless claims accelerated, providing challenging economic signals
for the Federal Reserve before its meeting next week.
The
consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month,
double the prior month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%, up 0.2
percentage point from the prior month and the highest reading since January.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of
0.3% and 2.9%.
For
the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%,
putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider
core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. The central bank’s inflation
target is 2%.
On
employment, the Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly
unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week
ending Sept. 6, higher than the 235,000 estimate and up 27,000 from the prior
period.
The
reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central
bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17.
The
closely watched CPI reading saw its biggest gain from a 0.4% increase in
shelter costs, which account for about one-third of the weighting in the index.
Food prices jumped 0.5% while energy was up 0.7% as gasoline rose 1.9%.
Market
pricing indicates a 100% certainty that the Fed will lower its benchmark
interest rate, currently targeted between 4.25%-4.5%. However, there has been a
slight implied chance that the Fed might choose to deviate from its usual
quarter percentage point move and cut by half a point considering weakness in
the labor market this year and subdued inflation readings.
Fed
officials have been watching the inflation data closely for clues on the impact
from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. There has been some visible pass-through
from the duties, though inflation figures have been relatively well-behaved.
The BLS reported Wednesday that producer prices actually declined 0.1% in
August.
Tariff-sensitive
vehicle prices saw monthly increases, with new vehicles up 0.3%. Used cars and
trucks, which are generally not influenced by tariffs, rose 1%.
Consumer prices
rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless claims jump
Jamie
Dimon isn’t convinced by the market’s theory that huge job revisions aren’t a
recession indicator
September
10, 2025
Despite
a downward revision to U.S. labor data of nearly a million jobs over the past
year, markets aren’t panicking this morning. It’s not like there’s going to be
a recession … right?
Jamie
Dimon isn’t entirely convinced. Of course, the JPMorgan Chase CEO is known
for his “prepared for anything” approach, running America’s biggest bank on the
basis of constant stress testing and risk assessments.
Confronted
with the news that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recalibrated its
reporting for the year ended March 25 downward by some 911,000 roles, Dimon
said the “economy is weakening.”
Asked
moments after the data dropped, the billionaire CEO said to CNBC: “Whether that is
on the way to recession or just weakening I don’t know—that just confirms what
we already thought kind of. That’s a big revision.”
The
magnitude of the alteration exceeded analysts’ expectations. Deutsche Bank, for example,
wrote in a note to clients on Monday that it expected the downward revision to
be around 50,000 to 60,000 jobs a month, which would have resulted in a 600,000
to 720,000 downgrade as opposed to the near–1 million figure.
Debate
is also rife about whether or not criticism can be leveled at the BLS given the
size of these revisions. Many economists argue the institution can only report
based on the breadth of the evidence it receives—and responses to its surveys
are falling. Likewise, experts point out that even a change of a fraction of a
percentage can lead to huge swings in numbers, given the size of the U.S. labor
force. In the case of this week’s data, the revision was just 0.6%.
Even
then, organizations will be eyeing data out of government agencies with
increased caution, particularly since the White House is also intervening more
forcefully into the matter.
Dimon
said his team has always taken into account federal data as well as reporting
from within his own bank and other nongovernment bodies: “We get data like you
wouldn’t believe. The government data is important. We get data from
nongovernment sources, and you can look at delinquency data, worldwide data,
trade data, we get all of that. But trying to fit out what the economy is going
to do is still hard to do with all that data. Maybe one day AI will fix that
problem.
“Hopefully
things will be okay, but you do see that kind of weakening.”
What
recession?
Last
week’s jobs data, which revealed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in
August, wasn’t enough to shift the needle on recession odds.
As
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote to clients in a note Friday:
“Recession odds have not increased, and we do not expect one in the near
term. But the labor market is losing momentum. The Fed will need to respond
with a September rate cut to mitigate growing risks from a weakening jobs
picture.”
Likewise,
Macquarie’s chief U.S. economist David Doyle told Fortune last
week that a lower “breakeven” jobs balance will help mitigate the American
economy entering negative growth. Doyle was speaking ahead of this week’s
911,000 revision in relation to more recent data and how it charts the path
ahead.
Doyle
described the economy as a low-hire, low-fire environment, where new job roles
aren’t being created in droves but massive layoffs aren’t occurring either.
Slower hiring is also being offset by lower immigration and retirement, he
added, maintaining an employment rate of 4.3%.
And
while the sluggish environment isn’t much fun for job seekers, it does
“insulate” the economy from significant swings that might be seen in periods of
greater activity, he said. A lower breakeven means changes to the unemployment
level are more “gradual,” adding: “So that acts as a bit of a ballast against a
sharp rise in unemployment. Often … when we see recessions it’s that sharp,
dramatic rise in unemployment and that creates negative cycle effects,
reinforcing cycle effects, where unemployment hurts consumption, which in turn
hurts unemployment.”
More
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, a technology we haven’t covered
in some time. Tidal power, in the right place makes more sense than subsidising
EVs, building EV ferries or EV school busses or trucks.
Tidal power proponent plans to modify turbine on failed company's
vessel
9 September 2025
Ottawa-based Oceanetic Power Corporation
wants to turn the Bay of Fundy tides into electricity by modifying the
turbine on a failed company's vessel.
Just over a year ago Occurrent
Power, formerly Big Moon Power, filed for insolvency. The company had secured a test-site berth at the
Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy located near Parrsboro, N.S., and a
lucrative power purchase agreement with Nova Scotia Power.
Now, Occurrent's key assets, including a
vessel known as the Falcon built for $14 million US, are owned by Oceanetic.
That company's founder, Sasha Jacob, was
previously an adviser to Occurrent and helped secure funding.
"It's really exciting for us,"
said Jacob, who was an investment banker in the early days of other renewable
technologies such as onshore wind and geothermal.
"We're seeing the same inflection
point with tidal power now," he said.
Fred Ferguson, chief technology officer
for Oceanetic, said there are plans to modify the turbine onboard the vessel to
improve energy capture by up to 400 per cent.
Three blades
"If this was a windmill that a
farmer used to pump water as an example, an old-fashioned one, they're
very inefficient, as opposed to modern wind turbines, which are three-bladed
and very efficient," Ferguson said.
"And so we're taking this
paddlewheel and reducing the number of blades to only three."
The new turbine is technology developed
by Ottawa-based Waterotor. Ferguson is the company's founder and CEO.
He said the modifications to the vessel,
which is arriving in Digby this week for an inspection, is estimated to cost
about $10 million.
If all goes as planned, Ferguson said
Oceanetic could produce energy in 2026.
Still, it remains to be seen if
Oceanetic will secure a berth at the Fundy Ocean Research Centre for
Energy.
Earlier this year, the province
appointed Toronto-based Power Advisory to oversee the procurement process
for tidal stream energy projects. The application deadline is Sept. 26.
Michael Killeavy, a commercial director
with Power Advisory, said there are about a dozen registrants with interest in
submitting applications for a marine renewable electricity licence to conduct
work in one, or both, of the two berths available.
Tidal power proponent plans to modify turbine on failed company's vessel
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and a dramatic sad weekend in the
USA; Germany and France falling apart in Europe; Israel crashing President
Trump’s Middle East peace efforts and rising global tariff resentment, led by
an outraged South Korea. What else will go wrong next week? Have a great weekend everyone.
In the
end, more than freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life,
and they lost it all – security, comfort, and freedom. When the Athenians
finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the
freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens
ceased to be free and was never free again.
Edward Gibbon
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