Baltic
Dry Index. 2205 + 25
Brent Crude 67.30
Spot Gold 3659 US 2 Year Yield 3.57 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 37.498 trillion
US GDP 30.275 trillion.
September 19, 1648 First inn opens in New France, a pastry shop and hostelry in Québec owned by Jacques Boisdon.
In the global stock casinos, what’s not to like. The great stocks bubble soars on in the greatest disconnect yet from global economic reality.
That it will end badly is a given, we just don’t know when or why and how.
For now, everyone’s a winner. Everyone and their dog is a buyer.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 hits record for second straight
day; BOJ keeps interest rate steady
Published Thu, Sep 18 2025 7:46 PM EDT
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 1.19%
to another fresh record high for a second
consecutive day as the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady at
0.5%, in line with the forecast from a Reuters poll of economists.
The decision to hold comes as Japan’s core
inflation rate fell to its lowest since November 2024, coming in at 2.7% for
August and marking a third straight month of decline.
The core inflation figure — which strips
out prices of fresh food — was in line with the 2.7% expected by economists
polled by Reuters. Headline inflation in the country also dropped to 2.7%,
coming down from 3.1% in July and marking a fresh low since November 2024.
“The Bank of Japan’s decision to hold
rates steady underscores its cautious stance amid slowing inflation and global
uncertainty – prioritizing stability over premature tightening,” said Hiroaki
Amemiya, investment director at Capital Group. “By preserving policy
optionality, the BoJ is signaling its readiness to respond to external
volatility while continuing to assess the strength of Japan’s economic
recovery.”
“The BoJ’s strategy supports the early
stages of a reflationary cycle, rather than reversing course,” Amemiya added.
Yields on Japan’s 2-year government bonds
rose to 0.885%, marking the highest since June 2008, LSEG data showed.
Meanwhile, the Topix added 0.84%.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 climbed 0.77%.
South Korea’s Kospi and small-cap Kosdaq were flat at the open.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.4%,
while the mainland’s CSI 300 added 0.13%. Zijin Gold, a subsidiary of China’s
largest gold miner Zijin Mining,
is looking to raise about HK$25 billion ($3.2 billion) in a Hong Kong
IPO, a company filing showed Friday.
The firm is offering almost 349 million
shares at HK$71.59 apiece, with trading scheduled to start Sept. 29.
India’s Nifty 50 declined 0.55%. Adani’s
flagship Adani Enterprises jumped over 4% after India’s market watchdog
absolved Adani Group and its founder Gautam Adani of certain misconduct allegations made by
Hindenburg Research.
Overnight in the U.S., the major averages
closed higher with smaller equities seeing the biggest boost, after the Federal
Reserve signaled it was embarking on an easing rate path, reinvigorating
investors and raising hopes for a ratcheting up of economic growth.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.48%
at 6,631.96, while the Nasdaq
Composite popped 0.94% to settle at 22,470.73. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
124 points, or 0.27%, to close at 46,142.42.
Each of the major U.S. indexes notched a
fresh all-time intraday high on Thursday, just a day after stocks had a
volatile trading session Wednesday in the wake of the Fed’s rate cut.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Bank of Japan
Stock futures are little changed after
market rallies to all-time highs: Live updates
Updated Fri, Sep 19 2025 7:20 PM EDT
Stock futures are near flat Thursday night
following a winning session that sent indexes to new records as the Federal
Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates set in investors’ minds.
Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 80 points, or nearly 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each also
rose 0.1%.
The three major averages closed at
all-time highs and notched fresh intraday records on Thursday. Notably, the
small cap-focused Russell 2000 surged
2.5%, ending the session at a record for the first time since 2021.
“The market is being held afloat by the
earnings numbers,” said Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University’s
Stern School of Business, on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell.” “As long as the earnings numbers keep coming in, there is no
catalyst for an adjustment.”
“It’s not just Big Tech. It’s not just
tech,” he added. “It’s collectively all stocks.”
Thursday’s moves come a day after the
Fed cut
interest rates for the first time this year. Stocks had a volatile
session on Wednesday as investors initially reacted to the central bank’s
decision and its economic projections.
With Thursday’s gains, the Dow and S&P
500 are both on track to finish the week 0.7% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite has climbed 1.5%, while the Russell 2000 has jumped nearly 3%.
There are no economic reports or major
earnings reports scheduled for Friday.
Stock market today: Live updates
US firms to invest £150 billion in UK as part of
Donald Trump’s state visit
Wed 17 September 2025 at 10:30 pm BST
American investment worth £150 billion has
been unveiled as part of US President Donald Trump’s historic second state
visit.
Some 7,600 “high quality” jobs will be
created across the country as a result of the influx of cash from big US firms,
according to the Government.
Sir Keir Starmer welcomed the
announcement, ahead of a day of high-level discussions with Mr Trump at
Chequers, the Prime Minister’s country home.
The PM said: “When we back British
brilliance, champion our world-class industries, and forge deeper global
alliances — especially with friends like the US — we help shape the future for
generations to come and make people across the country better off.
“These investments are a testament to
Britain’s economic strength and a bold signal that our country is open,
ambitious and ready to lead.
“Jobs, growth and opportunity is what I
promised for working people, and it’s exactly what this state visit is
delivering.”
Among the firms pledging investment in the
UK are asset management company Blackstone, which will invest £90 billion cash
on top of £10 billion previously announced to develop data centres.
Others include investment firm Prologis,
pledging £3.9 billion, and software company Palantir, pledging £1.5 billion.
The new flow of cash from the US into the
UK comes as Sir Keir and Mr Trump are expected to sign a new technology
prosperity deal when they meet on Thursday.
Among those who attended Mr Trump’s state
banquet at Windsor Castle were the chiefs of major US tech companies, including
Apple’s Tim Cook and OpenAI’s Sam Altman.
When Sir Keir and the US president meet,
they are also expected discuss other means of deepening the economic ties
between the UK and US.
Reports however suggest that the UK has
paused its efforts to cut steel tariffs on imports to the US, which stands at
25%, to zero as originally agreed earlier this year.
The sector has expressed disappointment,
as it is already reeling from major financial difficulties in recent years.
US firms to invest
£150 billion in UK as part of Donald Trump’s state visit
In other news.
DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach believes holding a
25% gold position isn’t excessive
Published Wed, Sep 17 2025 4:18 PM EDT
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is
getting so bullish on gold that he is saying investors could hold up to a
quarter of their portfolios in the metal, far above what normal portfolio
recommendations set for commodities.
Gundlach, whose firm managed about $95
billion at the end of 2024, believes gold will continue to stand out amid an
already stellar year on the back of inflationary pressures and a weaker dollar.
“I think almost certainly gold will close
above $4,000 before the end of this year,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” His forecast
represents a 7% upside from the current record level.
“I still think a 25% type weighting in
gold is not excessive. I think that is an insurance policy. It’s in a winning
mode because of the weaker dollar and I believe that’s going to continue,” he
said.
A weaker U.S. dollar makes
greenback-priced gold more appealing to holders of other currencies and higher
inflation makes the metal more attractive as a store of value. Gold also gains
appeal when interest rates fall, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of
holding the non-yielding asset.
Gundlach’s gold call is also partly based
on his belief that inflation will stay stubbornly elevated because of the
impact from tariffs.
“I think that the inflationary outlook is
very uncertain. [Powell] is correct in stating that we don’t really know what
the tariff effect... when it’s going to kick in, what it’s going to be,”
Gundlach said.
The bullion hit a new intraday all-time
high of $3,744 after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the
first time this year and signaled a steady path of easing through the rest of
the year. Gold has been a winning asset this year, rising more than 40%.
Gundlach pointed out that the rally in
gold has spread to gold miner stocks, which suggested to him that retail
investors are starting to join the momentum trade on the gold market.
Watch Gundlach’s full interview here.
DoubleLine's
Jeffrey Gundlach believes holding a 25% gold position isn't excessive
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bank
of England holds interest rates at 4% amid concerns over inflation
18
September 2025
Bank
of England policymakers have left interest rates on hold at 4%, amid concerns
about persistent above-target inflation.
The
Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority of seven
to two to leave borrowing costs unchanged, after five cuts since summer 2024,
including a
reduction last month.
The
MPC had been widely expected to pause rate cuts this month, with annual
inflation running well above the Bank’s 2% target, at
3.8% in
August.
August’s
rate cut required an unprecedented two rounds of voting before it could be
agreed, with external MPC member Prof Alan Taylor initially preferring a
half-point reduction, before joining the narrow majority for a quarter-point.
Bank
policymakers have been balancing the risks of rising inflation – caused in part
by a jump in food prices – against a continuing slowdown in the jobs market,
with unemployment at a four-year high.
The
chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has said she wants the government to do more to
tackle the cost of living, arguing this is one justification for keeping
government spending under control.
The
MPC’s decision to hold rates widens the gulf between its stance and the US
Federal Reserve, which reduced
interest rates by
a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, its first rate cut since
December.
Bank of England
holds interest rates at 4% amid concerns over inflation
Fed forecasts only one rate cut in 2026, a more
conservative outlook than expected
Published Wed, Sep 17 2025 2:46 PM EDT Updated
Wed, Sep 17 2025 3:11 PM EDT
The Federal Reserve is projecting only one
rate cut in 2026, less than expected, according to its median projection.
The central bank’s so-called dot plot,
which anonymously shows 19 individual members’ expectations, indicates a median
estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. That compares
to a median estimate of 3.6% for the end of this year, following two expected
cuts on top of Wednesday’s reduction.
A single quarter-point reduction next year
is significantly more conservative than current market pricing. Traders are
currently pricing in two to three more rate cuts next year, according to the
CME Group’s FedWatch tool,
updated shortly after the decision. The gauge uses prices on 30-day interest
rate futures contracts to determine market-implied odds for Fed rate moves.
The forecasts, however, showed a large
difference of opinion, with two voting members seeing as many as four cuts in
2026. Three officials penciled in three rate reductions next year.
“Next year’s dot plot is a mosaic of
different perspectives and is an accurate reflection of a confusing economic
outlook, muddied by labor supply shifts, data measurement concerns and
government policy upheaval and uncertainty,” said Seema Shah, chief global
strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The central bank has two policy meetings
left this year year, one in October and one in December.
Updated economic projections from the Fed
see slightly faster economic growth in 2026 than was projected in June, while
the outlook for inflation is now modestly higher for next year.
There’s a lot of uncertainty at the
central bank going into 2026, including the replacement for Fed Chair Jerome
Powell, whose term expires in May 2026.
Fed forecasts only
one rate cut in 2026, more conservative than expected
Swiss
exports to US drop over a fifth after Trump tariffs
18
September 2025
ZURICH
(Reuters) -Swiss goods exports to the United States dropped by more than a
fifth in August, the month in which President Donald Trump imposed 39% tariffs
on the country, official data showed on Thursday.
When
adjusted for seasonal swings, total Swiss exports were down 1% compared to the
previous month in nominal terms, and up 2.4% in real terms, according to the
Swiss government.
Trump
applied the tariffs on August 7, arguing they were justified by the U.S. trade
deficit with Switzerland. Certain goods such as pharmaceutical products and
gold were exempt.
The
United States has been Switzerland's largest single foreign market for goods,
and Trump's tariffs caused shock and dismay among the country's export-oriented
companies.
Exports
to the U.S. dipped in August by 22.1% to 3.1 billion Swiss francs ($3.9
billion) from almost 4 billion francs in July. The data exclude precious metals
and stones, works of art and antiques. The decline took exports to the U.S. to
their lowest level since the end of 2020, the government said.
The
figures showed that an increase in exports to European Union countries and
Canada partially offset the U.S. drop. They also showed that Germany in August
moved past the United States to become Switzerland's biggest export market.
Swiss exports to
US drop over a fifth after Trump tariffs
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Hopefully, there’s a fire station near
by.
Aukera lands
planning approval for 250MW/1GWh BESS on York Green Belt
BESS
developer Aukera has received planning consent from the City of York council
for a major BESS project, saying the urgent need for the technology outweighs
the harm it will cause to the city's Green Belt.
September 17, 2025
Developer Aukera has received planning
consent from the City of York council for a major BESS project, which said the
urgent need for the technology outweighs the harm it will cause to the city's
Green Belt.
The battery energy storage system (BESS)
project was approved by the council earlier this week (15 September).
The decision pertains to a field
adjacent to a farm on the city's Green Belt and allows for the installation of
the BESS and associated infrastructure, including a high-voltage substation,
inverters, switchgears, fencing, CCTV, landscaping and biodiversity
enhancements.
The council defended its decision to
approve the Green Belt project in a statement. While it will cause
"substantial harm to the Green Belt and its openness", it said, it
needs to be considered within the context of the urgent need for BESS as part
of the UK government's renewable energy efforts.
"There is convincing justification
that the benefits of the proposal in combating climate change and achieving net
zero carbon clearly outweigh the harms," the decision document reads. The
development needs to begin construction within three years of the
decision.
Large-scale BESS is needed to help
integrate the UK's growing renewable energy mix, by providing critical system
services and helping to balance supply and demand. The UK has 7,582MW/11,369MWh of operational BESS
today, as per figures from Solar Media Market
Research’s Battery Storage: UK Pipeline & Completed Assets Database report.
The government wants 23-27GW online by 2030.
Although Aukera was not named in the
decision document, the project's planning reference 24/02303/FULM matches that
given by Aukera for its project.
The planning document said the project
will be made up 272 lithium iron phosphate (LFP) BESS containers each with 4MWh
of energy storage capacity, meaning a total capacity of 1,088MWh. That would
make the project a 4-hour system.
The BESS units are 6 metres long (20
feet), 2.4 metres wide and will be finished in Moss Green colour, similar to
some other notable UK BESS projects. A supplier was not name in the
documents.
This week has also seen project
approvals for a development partnership between Renewable Power Capital and
Greenfield, in Wombourne and Kent totalling 82MW, covered by Solar Power Portal.
Aukera lands planning approval for 249.9MW York BESS
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and the last weekend before the UN General Assembly High Level Week. The great and the not so good meet in New York
next week focusing on Ukraine and Gaza and 80 years of peace. Great mischief lies ahead next week. Have a
great weekend everyone.
General Assembly High-level Week 2025
22 - 30 September 2025
"Eighty years ago, from the ashes of war, the world planted
a seed of hope. One Charter, one vision, one promise: that peace is possible
when humanity stands together."
António Guterres, 26 June 2025
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