Baltic
Dry Index. 2019 +40
Brent Crude 66.49
Spot Gold 3657 US 2 Year Yield 3.49 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 37.457 trillion
US GDP 30.254 trillion.
Tulip Mania: The World’s First
Economic Bubble!
Bing Videos Approx. 2 minutes.
The everything bubble, bubbles on.
In the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, communist money, massive amounts of fiat money created out of nothing at the push of a computer button, now compete for scarce goods like gold and fuel stock mania bubbles in AI technology stocks.
My take, the Dollar Reserve Standard will end badly. Tariff madness suggests a 1930s style ending, but with the collapse of a massive debt mountain adding to the global distress.
Amsterdam 1637 here we come.
Japan’s Nikkei crosses 44,000 to hit fresh highs,
extending rally after Ishiba’s resignation announcement
Published Mon, Sep 8 2025 7:37 PM EDT
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 0.9% to a
record high, notching a second straight day of gains after the country’s Prime
Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation Sunday. The Topix rose 0.52%.
The technology sector led gains on the
index, data from LSEG showed. Shares of Advantest led gains in
the region, popping 7.62%. Tokyo
Electron rose 3.64%, while Renesas Electronics was
2.59% higher.
“Investors are betting that the next
leader from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could unleash a new wave
of fiscal stimulus to bolster the economy,” XTB Investing’s senior market
analyst Hani Abuagla wrote in a note.
While near-term volatility is expected to
pick up amid political uncertainties, the upcoming change ultimately provides
for a “greater longer-term policy and political stability, and a more conducive
pro-growth environment for the equities market,” Julius Baer’s equity research
analyst in Asia, Louis Chua, said. The bank expects more upside for the Nikkei
225, forecasting that it will hit 46,000 in 12 months.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.1% to
147.38 against the greenback.
Broader Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly
higher Tuesday, tracking Wall Street gains boosted by tech stocks.
South Korea’s Kospi added 0.35%, while the
small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.19%.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 slid
0.29%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
1.48%, hitting its highest level since late 2021, while mainland CSI 300
slipped 0.41%.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index lost
1.25% after Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto unexpectedly dismissed Sri
Mulyani Indrawati as finance minister late Monday. She was replaced by Purbaya
Yudhi Sadewa, who headed the Deposit Insurance Corporation since 2020 and was sworn in late Monday. The Indonesian rupiah
weakened 1.17% to 16,490 against the dollar.
India’s Nifty 50 added 0.4%.
Overnight stateside, the three major
averages closed higher. The Nasdaq
Composite closed at a record high as investors geared up for a
data-heavy week that includes two closely watched readings on inflation.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished up 0.45% at
21,798.70, a record high after hitting a new all-time intraday high in the
session. The S&P 500,
meanwhile, settled up 0.21% at 6,495.15, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
114.09 points, or 0.25%, to close at 45,514.95.
The move higher was led by a rise in
shares of chipmaker Broadcom,
which gained 3%, and artificial intelligence darling Nvidia, whose almost 1% advance
reversed some of its steep losses from the past month. Amazon and Microsoft were also higher.
Asia
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Nifty 50
Traders see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point
Published Mon, Sep 8 2025 2:27 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Sep 8 2025 3:16 PM EDT
Traders are leaving open the option the
Federal Reserve next week could cut its key interest rate by half a percentage
point, though most on Wall Street think the bar for doing so is pretty high.
In the most likely scenario being priced
in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25
basis points, or 0.25 percentage point. Odds for a quarter-point cut were
around 88% on Monday afternoon, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool that measures odds of Fed action based
on 30-day fed funds futures contracts.
However, that left open a remote chance
that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee still could enact a
half-point reduction, as it did at the September meeting in 2024. Chances of
that were at 12% as traders disregarded any possibility the committee might
stay put.
Market sentiment shifted even more toward
Fed easing after Friday’s jobs report showed that nonfarm
payrolls expanded by just 22,000 in August while the unemployment rate
rose to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%.
“The soft August jobs report will help
drive consensus across the committee that not only should rate cuts resume this
month, but that further cuts will likely be appropriate in coming months,”
Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note after the payrolls
release.
While Hollenhorst thinks there could be
some support on the FOMC for a bigger move, “we do not think the majority of
the committee would support a 50 [basis point] cut.” Those possibly favoring a
larger move include Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, as well
as Stephen Miran should the Senate confirm him before the Fed convenes.
Citi holds a slightly out-of-consensus
view that the FOMC will cut at each of its next five meetings as officials look
through the current inflation trends and focus more on weakness
in the labor market. The call is predicated on Fed officials continuing to
worry about inflation but focusing more on jobs.
“The August employment report solidifies
the case for the Fed to deliver a series of insurance cuts at upcoming
meetings,” Nomura economist David Seif wrote. “With inflation risks elevated,
we expect officials would need to see clearer evidence of labor market stress
or a sharp tightening in market financial conditions before delivering more
aggressive easing.”
Current market expectations are that the
Fed cuts next week, skips October and lowers again in December.
More
Traders
see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point
Gold rallies to record high above $3,600/oz as Fed
rate cut bets firm
8 September 2025
(Reuters) - Gold surged past the $3,600 an
ounce level for the first time on Monday, hitting a record high, as soft U.S.
labor data reinforced expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates next week.
Spot gold rose 1.3% to $3,634.25 per
ounce, as of 2:26 p.m. EDT (1826 GMT). Bullion hit a record high of $3,646.29.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery
settled 0.7% higher at $3,677.40.
The yellow metal could extend its momentum
toward $3,700–$3,730 in the near-term, with any brief pullbacks likely seen as
buying opportunities, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals
strategist at Zaner Metals.
"Continued labor market softness and
expectations of ongoing Fed rate cuts into early 2026 could provide sustained
support for bullion."
Friday's jobs report showed U.S.
employment growth slowed sharply in August. Traders now see a 88% chance of a
quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with around 12% chance
of a larger 50-bps cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of
holding non-yielding bullion.
Gold prices are up 37% so far this year,
after gaining 27% in 2024, bolstered by dollar softness, strong central bank
accumulation, dovish monetary settings and heightened global uncertainty.
Gold
rallies to record high above $3,600/oz as Fed rate cut bets firm
Digital gold could soon shake up London’s precious
metal markets
Published Sun, Sep 7 20252:03 AM EDT
London’s $930-billion gold market could be
set for a “transformative” shake-up, as the World Gold Council (WGC) looks to
digitalize the metal.
On Wednesday, the WGC — a trade body that
represents the gold industry — launched a proposal for the roll-out of Pooled
Gold Interest (PGI) tokens backed by physical gold bars held in London, which
could be used to trade bullion and use it as collateral.
The tradeable PGIs would give market
participants legally enforceable ownership of vaulted gold and allow traders to
buy fractions of 400-ounce bars for the first time, according to Mike Oswin,
global head of market structure and innovation at the WGC.
“This is a way to be able to get into the
get into the market, hold a digital representation of gold with full legal
[entitlement], with full confidence that that the gold is there,” he said.
“It can be used simply for investments. It
can be used for collateral. We believe this will increase participation in the
market because of the new use cases that it’s going to open up,” he told CNBC
in a call on Wednesday.
The gold market has already seen a surge in
demand this year, with market volatility, rising geopolitical tensions and
macroeconomic jitters sending prices to
record highs.
‘A third pillar’
Amid that rising demand, Oswin told CNBC
that the WGC wanted to create “a third pillar” in addition to the existing two
ways of trading gold.
Gold trades are currently settled with
either allocated or unallocated gold. The former settlement involves direct
ownership of specific gold bars or coins. Unallocated gold — the most widely
traded form of gold in the world — gives investors a claim to a certain
quantity of gold, rather than ownership of specific bars. In this case, the
investor is exposed to any credit risks linked to the institution holding the
gold. If the institution goes bankrupt, there is no guarantee the investor’s
claim on the gold will be fulfilled.
“The key objective of this initiative in
phase one is to give gold the mobility it needs to be pledged as a financial
collateral,” Oswin said.
Allocated gold is accepted as a form of
financial collateral in many markets, but Oswin explained that, because of the
logistical difficulties involved with transferring physical bars between
vaults, “it is never used,” and bonds or cash are usually favored instead.
“We want to place gold as a financial
asset alongside those types of collateral,” Oswin told CNBC. “So pledging gold
will become just as simple as pledging a kind of digitally native bond or
cash.”
While the initial focus will be on
digitalizing gold for use as collateral, the PGIs also have scope to make the
gold market more accessible in other ways, Oswin added. Asked whether the PGIs
could one day be used to settle futures contracts, he expressed optimism.
“In a future state, one could look and
say, if the PGI is flowing freely around the market as collateral being
exchanged between parties … would it be a huge step to say that there could be
futures contracts that use this as the actual settlement mechanism?” he said.
”[It’s] not flagged as the core objective of ours, but potentially in the
future, you could see that as one of the opportunities for sure.”
The Loco London gold market — a reference
to gold bullion physically held in vaults in the U.K. capital — amounted to
8,776 tonnes of gold valued at $927.5 billion as of June 30, WGC data shows.
The London market clears an average 20 million ounces in daily trade, according
to the WGC — but the trade body’s outlook for digital gold goes even further.
More
Digital gold could soon shake up London’s precious metal markets
In other news.
Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of massive
refunds if the Supreme Court voids Trump tariffs
Published Sun, Sep 7 2025 3:28 PM EDT Updated
Sun, Sep 7 2025 6:18 PM EDT
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday
that he is “confident” that President Donald Trump’s tariff plan
“will win” at the Supreme Court, but warned his agency would be forced to issue
massive refunds if the high court rules against it.
If the tariffs are struck down, he said,
“we would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be
terrible for the Treasury,” according to an interview on NBC’s “Meet the
Press.”
He added, however, that “if the court says
it, we’d have to do it.”
The Trump administration last week asked
the Supreme Court for an
“expedited ruling” to overturn an appeals court decision that found most of his
tariffs on imports from other countries are illegal.
Generally, the Supreme Court could take as
long as early next summer to issue a decision on the legality of Trump’s
tariffs.
Bessent has said that “delaying a ruling
until June 2026 could result in a scenario in which $750 billion-$1 trillion in
tariffs have already been collected, and unwinding them could cause significant
disruption.”
The prospect of the government having to
refund tariffs of that magnitude could mean an unprecedented windfall to the
businesses and entities that paid them.
Bessent’s comments come as Trump’s tariffs
face an uncertain future after a federal appeals court ruled last month that
most of his “reciprocal tariffs” are illegal.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the
Federal Circuit ruled
last month that Trump overstepped his presidential authority when he introduced
“reciprocal tariffs” on almost every country as part of his “liberation day”
announcement.
The appeals court paused its ruling from
taking effect until Oct. 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal the
ruling to the Supreme Court.
Trump has requested that the Supreme Court
hear arguments on his appeal in early November and issue a final decision on
the legality of the disputed tariffs soon thereafter, according to filings
obtained by NBC News from the plaintiffs in the case.
Before court action, Trump’s tariffs were
set to affect nearly 70% of U.S. goods imports, according
to the Tax Foundation.
If struck down, the duties would impact just roughly 16%.
However, while Bessent and others have
expressed confidence that the Supreme Court will rule in its favor, the
administration is working on backup plans in case it does not.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday
that there are “other legal authorities” that the administration could take if
Trump’s tariffs are blocked.
“There are other things that could happen
should it go that way,” Hassett said on CBS
News’ “Face the Nation” if the tariffs are overturned. Some of those efforts
could include implementing tariffs through
Section 232, or sector-specific levies.
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of
1962 allows the president to implement levies “so that such imports will
not so threaten to impair the national security,” following an investigation
into trade practices, NBC
News reports.
For example, the Trump administration in
August expanded its 50% steel and aluminum
tariffs to
include more than 400 additional product categories, according to the
Department of Commerce. Trump has also threatened to impose steep tariffs on
semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Other levies that would not be affected by
Trump’s court battle are those on low-cost items. The administration officially
eliminated the
“de minimis exemption” on U.S.-bound goods valued at $800 or less.
On Saturday, the Universal Postal Union,
an agency of the UN, said postal traffic into the U.S. plummeted by more
than 80% after
the Trump administration ended the tariff exemption on cheap imports as postal
operators looked for guidance on compliance with the new rules.
Trump tariffs
Treasury Secretary Bessent Supreme Court
Potential Trump tariff refund bill could top $1
trillion as Supreme Court fight looms
Published Mon, Sep 8 2025 5:03 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Sep 8 2025 5:10 PM EDT
The United States government has
already collected tens of billions of dollars from President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal
tariffs.”
But that money — and a lot more — could
end up being refunded if
the Supreme Court agrees with lower courts that many of the levies on imports
from other countries are illegal.
How much could that end up being?
Anywhere between $750 billion to a
whopping $1 trillion, warned Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent in a declaration filed with the Supreme Court last week.
That eye-popping total could include the
more than $72 billion in tariff
revenue collected so far by U.S. Border and Customs enforcement since
Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, according to data as of Aug. 24.
It would also include money projected to
be collected from the at-risk tariffs by next June.
“Unwinding them could cause significant
disruption,” Bessent told the Supreme Court.
Bessent’s declaration was part of a
request by the Trump administration to have the Supreme Court quickly rule the
tariffs are legal, and not wait until next summer, the normal time frame for
such a decision.
The sooner the court rules, the less money
the government could be required to refund if a majority of justices find
the tariffs to be illegal.
Refunding tariffs is not an unprecedented
situation for the U.S. government. But the amount of tariffs the Trump
administration could be forced to refund is.
More
Trump
tariff refunds possible as Supreme Court fight looms
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Job
Growth Sputters: Rate Cuts And Recession Incoming?
Sep
07, 2025, 07:00am EDT
Worse-than-expected
job growth on Friday sent the S&P 500 lower after reaching a closing high
on Thursday.
Job
Growth
Employment
grew by just 22,000 nonfarm jobs, which was below expectations. Previous data
was revised slightly lower, though only by 21,000, compared to the massive
downward revision last month. The household survey data were solid, with a gain
of 288,000 jobs following a decline of 260,000 jobs the previous month. The
household survey research series, which aligns with the payroll report
criteria, increased by 781,000. The significant increase in the research series
is merely little more than a slight reversal of the 753,000 decline from the
previous month.
The
unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%. This increase in unemployment
was mainly due to relatively positive reasons, with job gains of 288,000 in the
household survey and an increase of 436,000 in the labor force.
The
underemployment rate is a broader measure of unemployment, which includes
“unemployed people, plus everyone marginally attached to the workforce, plus
all people employed part-time for economic reasons.” The underemployment rate
is 1.5 percentage points above the December 2022 low, while the unemployment
rate has risen 0.9 percentage points from its low. The underemployment rate can
serve as a leading indicator of unemployment, reflecting the growing slack in
the labor market.
Wage
growth was below expectations at 3.7% year-over-year, down from 3.9% last
month. The average workweek hours held steady at 34.2, just above the five-year
low of 34.1 in January, which was depressed by weather and the LA fires.
Monitoring
the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age individuals, aged 25 to 54,
should signal when concern about the unemployment rate is warranted. The
three-month average of the prime-age employment-to-population ratio has been
teetering around the current level, but the labor market has remained
resilient. It should be monitored closely, but it has been able to maintain a
steady level so far and improved fractionally this month.
Initial
weekly filings for unemployment benefits remain benign. However, continuing
claims for benefits are above the lows, indicating some slowdown in people
being rehired after losing their jobs.
Recession
Imminent?
The
Sahm Rule states that a recession begins when the three-month moving average of
the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its
low during the previous 12 months. The three-month average of the US
unemployment rate is 4.23%, well below the 4.51% Sahm Rule trigger. The Sahm
Rule has had an unblemished historical record of predicting recessions.
However, its perfection is in jeopardy since the rule was triggered in July and
September 2024 with no economic contraction yet in sight.
Another
useful predictor of recessions has been earnings growth, as a recession is
typically associated with a year-over-year decline in corporate profits. For
this analysis, the NIPA corporate profits are used rather than S&P 500
earnings. NIPA data includes all US companies, including both public and
private entities, as well as small companies and S corporations. For the second
quarter of 2025, NIPA profits grew by 4.3% year-over-year, which remains
positive but looks to be decelerating. Notably, S&P 500 earnings grew at a
12% year-over-year pace; however, much of that rapid growth was driven by
technology and artificial intelligence-related companies. Therefore, NIPA
provides a better window into the overall economy.
More
Job Growth
Sputters: Rate Cuts And Recession Incoming?
Germany's
US exports hit four-year low as tariffs bite
September
8, 2025
German
exports to the United States dropped in July to their lowest level since 2021,
data showed Monday, as President Donald Trump's tariffs exact a heavy toll on
Europe's biggest economy.
Exports
of German goods to the world's largest economy were down 7.9 percent from a
month earlier, according to provisional data from federal statistics agency
Destatis.
It
was their fourth straight monthly decline, with the total value dropping to
11.1 billion euros ($13 billion), the agency said. Nevertheless, the US
remained the top destination for "Made in Germany" products.
Trump's
tariffs have dealt a major blow to Germany's export-driven economy, where major
manufacturers had already been struggling with high energy costs, fierce
competition from Asia and weak demand.
The
drop in shipments to the US helped push Germany's overall exports in July to a
0.6 percent contraction from the previous month -- worse than expectations of
zero growth from analysts surveyed by financial data firm FactSet.
In
total, Germany exported goods worth 130.2 billion euros in July. Imports
slipped 0.1 percent on the previous month to a value of 115.4 billion
euros.
The
trade surplus narrowed to 14.7 billion euros.
Exports
to China -- another of Germany's top trading partners -- plunged 7.3 percent in
July, the data showed.
More
Germany's US
exports hit four-year low as tariffs bite
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene enhanced perovskite solar cells improve efficiency and
reduce production costs
Sun 7 September 2025 at 11:00 pm BST
SYDNEY, Sept. 8,
2025 /PRNewswire/ -- First Graphene Limited (ASX: FGR; "First
Graphene" or "the Company") (FRA:M11) (OTCQB:FGPHF) is pleased
to provide an update on its partnership with Halocell Energy (Halocell) and Queensland
University of Technology (QUT) to develop graphene enhanced perovskite
solar cells (PSC).
Through the addition of First
Graphene's novel functionalised graphene, Halocell's photovoltaic (PV) PSC
has almost doubled in efficiency to 30.6%, while reducing production costs by
up to 80%.
This is predominantly achieved through
the Company's graphene formulations being compatible with roll-to-roll (R2R)
dispersion technology, which eliminates traditional high conductor and
high-cost materials such as gold and silver from PSCs (see Figure 1).
R2R is the cheapest PSC manufacture
method, providing a rapidly scalable production technique, introducing cost and
volume efficiencies that gives Halocell's cells market advantage against
competitors.
Cells made with alternative carbon-based
materials such as graphene (see Figure 2) have widely been found to outperform
conventional silicon cells in low and artificial light conditions, including
indoor environments, generating and supplying power for niche applications.
Perovskites generally lower PV material,
processing and energy costs associated with manufacture significantly compared
to traditional silicon-based PVs. Their energy payback period has been
calculated to be as low as six weeks compared to silicon cells which take
approximately two years.
Technology development and performance
has created a level of PSC efficiency in the last decade that took 40 years to
achieve in silicon-based cells.
Research partnership leading to commercial opportunities
FGR's research and development
partnership with Halocell and QUT started in 2023 and continues to be funded
through a three-year AU$2.03 million grant from the Federal Government's
Cooperative Research Centres Projects (CRC-P).
To assist ongoing development of
graphene-enhanced PSCs, First Graphene entered a two-year commercial agreement
to supply Halocell with its PureGRAPH® for use as a high
performing coating in their cells last year (refer ASX announcement 26 September 2024).
Since late 2024 Halocell has been
selling indoor, low-light PSCs to the Australian market, typically used in
small electronic items.
PSCs are widely considered the best
solution to replace hundreds of millions of batteries used in small everyday
electronic devices such as TV remotes, calculators, toys, lights and torches,
e-readers and tracking devices.
Graphene enhanced perovskite solar cells improve efficiency and reduce
production costs
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Democracy
is four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.
Ambrose Bierce
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