Baltic
Dry Index. 1890 -37 Brent Crude 71.54
Spot Gold 2586 US 2 Year Yield 3.57 -0.07
The advantage of a free market is that it allows millions of decision-makers to respond individually to freely determined prices, allocating resources - labor, capital and human ingenuity - in a manner that can't be mimicked by a central plan, however brilliant the central planner.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
It is Fed week in the stock casinos, although the BOJ and BOE have supporting interest rate roles later in the week.
But the big developing story today is the potential second assassination attempt on presidential candidate Trump.
Hardly surprising, given the level of Democratic hate demonisation rhetoric poured out by the Biden-Harris campaign to date. An unintended or just possibly intended violence result, US politics has now entered a very dangerous phase. If candidate Trump wins, what next? Another November 22, 1963?
Hong Kong stocks fall as investors digest China
economic data, await Fed rate verdict
Published Sun, Sep 15 2024 8:01 PM EDT
Asian markets opened mixed Monday, with
Hong Kong stocks falling as investors assessed downbeat economic data from
China, while several key markets were closed for holidays.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.76% on
open, after China released
a slew of worrying economic data over the weekend, with August factory
output, retail sales and investment numbers missing expectations. Urban jobless
rate rose to a six-month high while year-on-year home prices fell at their
fastest pace in nine years.
Investors also await the Federal Reserve’s
policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where the central bankers are expected
to make their first interest rate cut since 2020
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.44%
on open. The Taiwan Weighted
Index edged up slightly.
Markets in mainland China and South Korea
were closed for Mid-Autumn festival. Japan markets were closed for Respect for
the Aged Day.
Typhoon Bebinca has led to cancellation of
hundreds of flights in China and Shanghai is expected to be hit by the
strongest storm since 1949.
Asian investors also await a swath of key
data and central bank decisions from the region.
Japan’s inflation is expected to tick
higher in August, according to a Reuters poll, backing the case for the Bank of
Japan to stay hawkish as the board sets its policy on Friday.
The central bank is anticipated to keep
the rate unchanged while signaling that further rate hikes were in the offing.
The Japanese yen strengthened Monday
morning to trade at 140.49 against the greenback. If the yen holds these
levels, the currency will close at its strongest in more than a year.
China is poised to set its one- and
five-year loan prime rates on Friday. The one-year rate, which affects most new
and outstanding loans, is
currently at 3.35%, while the five-year rate, that influences the pricing
of mortgages, is currently at 3.85%.
After a rough start to a historically weak
September, the three major U.S. indexes ended last week’s trading session in
the green, with the S&P
500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite closing their best week of 2024.
The broad-based S&P 500 index advanced
0.54% to close at 5,626.02 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.65% to 17,683.98
while the Dow Jones Industrial
Average jumped 0.72% to close at 41,393.78.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, the S&P
500 and the Nasdaq
100 were little changed.
Asia markets live: Investors assess China data, await Fed verdict (cnbc.com)
FTSE 100 gains on precious metals surge; rate cut
bets surge
13 September 2024
(Reuters) -Precious metal mining stocks
lifted London's blue-chip index on Friday as investors raised their bets on a
hefty U.S. interest rate cut next week, but gains were limited as a strong
pound weighed on export-oriented companies.
The FTSE 100 edged up 0.4%, while the
mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 1%. Both stock indexes registered a weekly advance, led
by an over 19.5% rise in precious metal mining stocks over the week.
The index climbed over 6.8% to its highest
level in over 15 months. Gold miners Fresnillo and Endeavour firmed 5.7% and
10.5%, respectively, as gold scaled a record high against a weaker greenback.
[GOL/]
Gold prices rose as optimism about the
Federal Reserve cutting U.S. interest rates increased, driven by fund inflows
and a weaker dollar.
Beverages were the top sectoral decliners,
down 1.2% after the Italian spirits group Campari warned about a "very
soft" environment for the industry in the current quarter. UK peer Diageo
slipped 1.4%.
Sterling touched a one-week high against
the dollar after the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times reported it might
be a close call on whether the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points or by 50 bps
at its meeting next Wednesday.
That prompted traders to boost their
expectations of a steeper 50 bps rate cut to 43% from just 14% a day earlier,
CME's FedWatch tool showed.
Meanwhile, the British public's
expectations for inflation over the coming year dropped to their lowest in
three years in August, likely reassuring policymakers ahead of next week's
interest rate decision.
The Bank of England is expected to keep
rates on hold in its upcoming meeting, according to a Reuters poll of
economists.
More
FTSE 100 gains on precious metals surge; rate cut bets surge (msn.com)
Trump safe, suspect in custody as FBI investigates
apparent ‘attempted assassination’
Published Sun, Sep 15 2024 2:56 PM EDT
Former President Donald Trump was unharmed on
Sunday and a suspect was in custody, after shots were fired in what the Federal
Bureau of Investigation said “appears to be an attempted assassination” at his
Florida golf course.
U.S. Secret Service officers “opened fire
on a gunman located near the property line” of Trump’s golf course in West Palm
Beach, Florida, shortly before 2:00 p.m. ET, Special Agent Rafael Barros
said at a press conference Sunday.
Trump was playing the course at the time
and within 300 and 500 yards of the gunman, Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric
Bradshaw said at the same press conference.
The person in custody who the Secret
Service shot at is Ryan Wesley Routh, three senior law enforcement officials
told NBC News.
Officials have not yet confirmed where he
was aiming, nor whether he fired any shots.
The former president was immediately taken
to a safe location when the shots were heard, and his motorcade arrived back at
his Palm Beach resort home, Mar-a-Lago, shortly afterwards.
“There were gunshots in my vicinity, but
before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first:
I AM SAFE AND WELL!” Trump’s presidential campaign wrote in a fundraising email
shortly after the incident. “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER
SURRENDER!”
After shots were fired, Bradshaw said a
witness on the scene told officials that they had spotted a “guy running out of
the bushes.”
The witness said they saw the person flee
and jump into a black Nissan vehicle, Bradshaw added.
Law enforcement officials later found an
AK-47-style rifle with a scope in the bushes, along with two backpacks with
ceramic tile inside and a GoPro camera fastened to the fence, Bradshaw said.
More
Trump assassination attempt: Suspect in custody, ex-president safe (cnbc.com)
In other news, more red flags.
China’s local government debt problems are a
hidden drag on economic growth
Published Sun, Sep 15 2024 10:45 PM EDT
BEIJING — China’s persistent consumption
slowdown traces back to the country’s real estate slump, and its deep ties to
local government finances — and debt.
The bulk of Chinese household wealth went
into real estate in the last two decades, before Beijing began cracking
down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020.
Now, the values of those properties are
falling, and developers have reduced land purchases. That’s cutting
significantly into local government revenue, especially at the district and
county level, according to S&P Global Ratings analysts.
They predicted that from June of this
year, local government finances will take three to five years to recover to a
healthy state.
But “delays in revenue recovery could
prolong attempts to stabilize debt, which continues to rise,” Wenyin Huang,
director at S&P Global Ratings, said in a statement Friday to CNBC.
“Macroeconomic headwinds continue to
hinder the revenue-generating power of China’s local governments, particularly
as related to taxes and land sales,” she said.
Huang had previously told CNBC that the
financial accounts of local governments have suffered from the drop in land
sales revenue for at least two or three years, while tax and fee cuts since
2018 have reduced operating revenue by an average of 10% across the country.
This year, local authorities are trying
hard to recoup revenue, giving already strained businesses little reason to
hire or increase salaries — and adding to consumers’ uncertainty about future
income.
As officials dig into historical records
for potential missteps by businesses and governments, dozens of companies in
China disclosed in stock exchange filings this year that they had received
notices from local authorities to pay back taxes tied to operations as far back
as 1994.
They stated amounts ranging from 10
million yuan to 500 million yuan ($1.41 million to $70.49 million), covering
unpaid consumption taxes, undeclared exported goods, late payment fees and
other fees.
More
China's local government debt problems are a hidden drag on economic growth (cnbc.com)
Why the European Union’s tariffs on Chinese
automakers may not work
Published Sat, Sep 14 2024 8:00 AM EDT
By the end of October, the European Union
will make a final decision on what some analysts call the biggest EU trade case
against China in more than a decade.
But automakers and countries are divided
over whether to place tariffs — so far of up to 36.3% — on Chinese electric
vehicles. A German automotive trade association says they would hurt German
automakers, which have a significant presence in China. Germany has a
substantial automotive trade surplus with the country. Italian and French
automakers, meanwhile, have almost no presence there.
China has been exporting cars to countries
all around the globe, and both supporters of tariffs and trade and industry
analysts point to China’s support for its domestic manufacturers as a rationale
for imposing tariffs.
“We’re dealing with an economy in China
where credit money is allocated by the state and not by the market, and the
state picks sectors that they want to promote,” said William Reinsch, senior
advisor and Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, a bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C.
“In that kind of economy — if you do that
— you always get overinvestment, you always get overcapacity, you always get
overproduction, and then that overproduction gets dumped on the rest of the
world.”
Chinese automakers can produce a car for
about $5,500, said Felipe Muñoz, senior analyst for JATO Dynamics, while it
costs European automakers closer to $20,000.
That tremendous cost advantage is
partially explained by government subsidies, he said.
“But also it’s explained by higher
economies of scale,” Muñoz continued. “It’s explained by lower labor costs and
by the fact that when it’s about electric cars, China, unlike the rest of the
world, it has already secured the supply chain for the batteries.”
More
Why the European Union's tariffs on Chinese automakers may not work (cnbc.com)
Boeing warns strike will ‘jeopardize’ recovery,
hurt aircraft production
Published Fri, Sep 13 2024 12:01 PM EDT
Boeing CFO Brian West said the labor strike that began
just after midnight Friday will hurt aircraft deliveries and “jeopardize” the
company’s recovery, hours after factory workers overwhelmingly rejected a new
labor contract and walked off the job.
West said the financial impact of the
strike will depend on how long it lasts, but that it will affect the company’s
production of its bestselling planes, including its cash cow bestseller, the
737 Max, which is produced in Renton, Washington.
“The strike will impact production and
deliveries and our operations and will jeopardize our recovery,” West said at a
Morgan Stanley conference on Friday. “So our immediate focus is to the
laser-like focus on actions to conserve cash, and we will.”
He said Boeing’s priority is to get back
to the bargaining table and “reach an agreement that’s good for our people,
their families, our community.”
Boeing shares fell sharply on Friday after
Moody’s put all of Boeing’s credit ratings on review for a downgrade and Fitch
Ratings said a prolonged strike could put Boeing at risk of a downgrade,
actions that could drive up the borrowing costs of a manufacturer that already
has mounting debt.
Boeing shares closed nearly 4% lower
Friday.
West declined to say whether the company
could meet a rate of producing 38 737 Max planes per month by the end of the
year.
Jefferies aerospace analyst Sheila
Kahyaoglu had previously estimated that a 30-day strike could be a $1.5 billion
hit for Boeing.
More
Boeing CFO: Strike will 'jeopardize' recovery, hurt aircraft production (cnbc.com)
Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Bills. Wall
Street Is Alarmed.
Lenders see a rise in late payments on credit cards and auto loans
Sept. 14, 2024 5:30 am ET
Signs that Americans are struggling to
keep up with their bills are setting off alarms on Wall Street.
Shares of consumer-lending companies slid
this past week after executives raised warnings about lower-income borrowers
who are struggling to make payments. Dour remarks from banking executives at
the Barclays banking conference rattled investors, who were already on edge
about the health of the U.S.
economy.
Investors have been on high alert
for any clues that a
recession is
in store after two years of higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve is
expected to start lowering
rates at
its meeting this coming week, but some investors fear it might have waited too
long.
Here is what bank executives are telling
us about how people are faring.
Watching those credit-card bills
On top of soaring prices for
groceries and
just about everything else, people have been dealing with higher interest rates
on their credit cards. The average rate as of May was 21.51%, according to Fed
data, up from around 15% in 2019.
That helps explain why some are finding it
harder to keep up with payments, particularly those who don’t earn so much.
Around 9.1% of credit-card balances turned delinquent over the past year, the
highest rate in over a decade, according to an August report from the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York.
“In general, this has been a bigger issue
for people in the bottom half of the income spectrum,” said Moshe Orenbuch, an
analyst at TD Cowen.
Mark Mason, chief financial officer
at Citigroup, said at the
Barclays conference that his bank has seen delinquencies picking up and more
consumers carrying balances. Where there is growth in spending, he said it is
driven primarily by Citi’s affluent customers.
Earlier this summer, JPMorgan Chase
and Discover Financial
Services executives
said lower-income consumers were spending more cautiously.
The credit-card issuer Bread Financial, which serves
more lower-income borrowers than bigger banks, said at the conference it
expects elevated charge-off rates for the rest of 2024, while Synchrony Financial said it is
seeing higher charge-off rates than before the pandemic.
Charge-off rates refer to the balances
that card issuers write off because borrowers are unlikely to pay them.
“What that tells you is if people do get
behind on their payments in this environment, it’s tougher to get out of them,”
said Orenbuch of TD Cowen.
More
Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Bills. Wall Street Is Alarmed. - WSJ
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
JPMorgan
CEO warns US of economic outcome worse than recession
By
Akash Pandey Sep 14, 2024 10:25 am
Jamie
Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has issued a
warning about a potential economic scenario worse than a recession for
the US.During his
address at the Council of Institutional Investors in New York on Tuesday,
68-year-old Dimon identified stagflation as "the worst outcome" and
cautioned that it should not be dismissed as a possibility.This statement comes
from the head of US's largest bank, which manages assets worth $3.4 trillion.
Stagflation:
A threat to retirement savings and stock market
Stagflation,
a term combining stagnation and inflation, describes an
economic state where growth slows down while inflation and unemployment rates
increase.The last time the US experienced stagflation was in 1970s, per
Investopedia.This economic condition could potentially lead to a decrease in
retirement savings and cause the stock market to crash,
posing significant financial risks for individuals and businesses."The
worst outcome is stagflation," said Dimon, adding, "and by the way, I
wouldn't take it off the table."
National
debt and inflation: A concerning outlook
Despite
inflation in August growing less than expected at 2.5%, the outlook for the
federal debt is still worrying.As of September 12, the national debt has
reached an unprecedented $35 trillion.Interest payments due in October on this
debt now surpass both Medicare and national defense budget costs, potentially
contributing to further inflation.This marks the first time in US history that
interest payments on national debt have exceeded $1 trillion.
Mixed
consumer views and spending expectations
A
report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed mixed consumer views
on the market.While inflation is nearing the Fed's ultimate goal of 2%,
Americans anticipate their spending to increase by 5% but expect only a minimal
rise in household incomes by 0.1% points from last year.This disparity between
expected spending and income growth could further complicate the economic
outlook.CNBC's August report says Dimon estimates a 35% chance of
stagflation, suggesting recession is more likely.
JPMorgan CEO warns US of economic outcome worse than recession (newsbytesapp.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
New
'more contagious' Covid variant spreads through Europe
15
September 2024
A
new 'stronger' Covid variant is spreading across Europe and the world, as
experts warn it is 'just getting started'.
The
XEC strain was first detected in Germany in
June and has been identified in 15 countries across three continents.
According
to experts, the strain could become the dominant variant within months when the
weather gets cold.
Director
of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California Eric
Topol said XEC is 'just getting started now around the world and here'.
Speaking
to the LA Times, he added: 'And that's going to take many weeks, a
couple months, before it really takes hold and starts to cause a wave.
'XEC
is definitely taking charge. That does appear to be the next variant.
'But
it's months off from getting into high levels.'
Regional
chief of infectious diseases for Kaiser Permanente Southern California Dr
Elizabeth Hudson said health experts will continue to monitor the variant in
the coming weeks.
Dr
Hudson said that XEC has been reported in western Europe including Germany and
the Netherlands and it is spreading quickly.
XEC
has shown up in the US but its prevalence is low so far.
The
strain, which is a combination of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants, causes
symptoms that are similar to those you experience with common illnesses such as
flu and colds.
Most
people will get better within a few weeks, but for others it could take longer
to recover and some may even require hospitalisation.
Usual
symptoms include a high temperature, continuous cough, loss of sense of taste
or smell, shortness of breath and feeling tired or exhausted.
More
New 'more contagious' Covid variant spreads through Europe (msn.com)
Survey
says most Americans plan to get flu shot, but not COVID-19 booster
Ashleigh Fields Fri 13 September 2024 at 7:38 pm BST
A
majority of respondents to a poll released Thursday said they have gotten or
plan to get this year’s flu vaccine, while less than half said the same about
the 2024 COVID-19 booster.
Thirty-seven
percent in the Ohio
State University Wexner Medical Center survey said they
have gotten vaccines in the past but do not plan to again.
Some
56 percent said they will get or have already received the flu shot, but only
43 percent have gotten or plan to get the coronavirus vaccine.
“We’re
at the start of respiratory virus season when you have the triple threat of
flu, COVID-19 and RSV. Unfortunately, there is a lot of misinformation about
vaccinations, but the reality is that they are safe and highly effective in
preventing serious illness and death,” said Nora Colburn, medical director of
clinical epidemiology at Ohio State’s Richard M. Ross Heart Hospital, in a
statement.
“Older
adults, people with certain chronic medical conditions and those who are
pregnant are especially at risk during respiratory virus season,” Colburn
added.
Doctors
recommend that everyone receive updated COVID-19 vaccines outside of infants
younger than 6 months, and that children older than 6 years receive updated flu
shots annually.
According
to Colburn, “Vaccinations play a critical role in helping keep individuals and
communities healthy. Other things you can do is to stay home when sick, avoid
those who are sick and wear a mask if you’re not feeling well and going out of
your home. All of these things can help prevent you from getting sick and
spreading it to others.”
The
survey was conducted on behalf of the Ohio State University Wexner Medical
Center by SSRS from Aug. 16-18 among 1,006 respondents. It has a margin of
error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Survey says most Americans plan to get flu shot, but not COVID-19 booster (yahoo.com)
Vaccine
Damage Payment Scheme: 'Astra Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine left us disabled - now
we're locked in a battle with a pharma giant'
A
number of people from Yorkshire are suffering from injuries they believe to
have been caused by the Astra Zeneca COVID-19 Vaccine. Greg Wright reports
13
September 2024
Subscription
required.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Wind
power makes incredible first-ever achievement relative to coal power: 'Now we
are seeing it as a major component'
Mandy Carr Fri, September 13, 2024 at 12:00 PM GMT+1
In 2024, wind power has made
a milestone as the United States transitions from dirty energy to cleaner, more
affordable energy sources.
According to The New York Times, in the U.S., wind turbines produced more energy
in March and April than coal plants. It was the first time wind power surpassed
coal power for two consecutive months, the Times noted, citing the Energy
Information Administration.
Power generated by coal is
usually the highest in the summer and winter months when energy is in high
demand. In spring, particularly in April, coal use decreases, and renewable
energy use rises, as the Times detailed.
The cost of constructing new
turbines and other renewable power sources has decreased in recent years due to
technological advances. Tax incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act and new regulations have all contributed to
the growing use of wind power.
The new regulations include
transitioning to all renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. More than 20 states
have enacted this, including North Carolina, Nebraska, and Minnesota, according
to the Times report.
Additionally, coal capacity
has decreased by almost 50% from 2000 to 2024, while wind capacity has grown by
60 times, per the Times.
"Even five years ago,
you could see wind as a little supplement to the energy system," said Cory
Arce Gessert, a vice president of project development at DNV, an energy
consulting firm, per the Times. "And now we are seeing it as a major component,
a necessary component."
There is still a long way to
go since dirty energy overall was still the primary energy source in April
2024. Wind and solar energy were small amounts, with wind producing 15% and
solar 6%.
In April, coal still
generated 12% of energy, nuclear power generated 18.5%, and natural gas 39%,
all according to the news outlet.
As wind power capacity grows,
it will benefit communities even more. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, more than 125,000 people work in the wind power
industry. There is potential for the industry to support hundreds of thousands
more jobs by 2050.
It also brings economic
growth to communities. For instance, in 2022, new wind project investments
contributed $20 billion to the U.S. economy, per the DOE.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
What
our generation has forgotten is that the system of private property is the most
important guarantee of freedom, not only for those who own property, but
scarcely less for those who do not. It is only because the control of the means
of production is divided among many people acting independently that nobody has
complete power over us, that we as individuals can decide what to do with
ourselves.
Friedrich
August von Hayek.
