Baltic Dry Index. 2937 +241 Brent Crude 80.72
Spot Gold 2041 US 2 Year Yield 4.73 +0.09
The statesman who should attempt to direct
private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not
only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority
which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council
or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of
a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
The big news this morning is that the seven day truce on war in the Gaza
Ghetto has ended. Let the killing resume on industrial scale once again. If it
does, ignoring Biden and Blinken’s instruction to Israel to moderate the
killing of women and children, a wider regional war looms before Christmas.
In the stock casinos, onward and upward into December?
Well maybe, but in the real world far from the central bankster fuelled
money spigots, a massive global property bust is underway from China through
Europe and out to the USA. Nothing good happens for the wider economy when real
estate markets stumble.
Asia markets
slide as investors assess factory activity private surveys; China manufacturing
clocks surprise growth
UPDATED FRI, DEC 1 2023 12:37 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets started Friday lower,
breaking ranks with Wall Street which mostly advanced on Thursday, amid mixed
economic data from across the region.
Most notably, investors assessed
China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for November, which
showed that the sector unexpectedly expanded.
The Caixin PMI reading came in at 50.7,
compared to 49.5 in October and beating a Reuters poll forecast of 49.8.
This comes after official numbers
Thursday showed the country’s manufacturing sector contracted
for a second straight month.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 inched
down 0.2% and closed at 7,073.2, ending a three-day winning streak.
South Korea’s Kospi slid
0.76%, while the small cap Kosdaq was down 0.21%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
marginally below the flatline, but the Topix bucked the trend and rose 0.35%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.3% at open, while China’s CSI 300 index dropped 0.57%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached
a new high for the year, as cooling inflation data and strong Salesforce
earnings help the benchmark cap its best month since October 2022.
The S&P 500 added
0.4%, but the Nasdaq Composite was
about 0.2% lower as investors took some profits in Big Tech stocks that have
led the November comeback.
Separately, the U.S. personal
consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s
favorite inflation gauge — rose 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, slowing from a
3.7% annual gain in prior month.
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates, PMI readings, U.S. inflation (cnbc.com)
Stock futures mixed on Friday after Dow notches
new high for the year: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, DEC 1 2023 12:26 AM
EST
Stock
futures were mixed on Friday morning after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched
a new 2023 high and capped off its best month in more than a year.
Futures tied to the 30-stock
index extended gains marginally and climbed 20 points, or 0.06%, while S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped
0.0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.
Disney shares moved up less than
1% in extended trading after the entertainment giant reinstated its dividend.
Ulta Beauty jumped nearly 12% on strong quarterly results.
Thursday’s overnight moves come
on the heels of an exhilarating end to a blowout
November rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 520 points,
or 1.47%, to settle at 35,950.89 and top its previous 2023 high hit in August.
The S&P 500 rose
0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped
about 0.2%.
Stocks finished off a record
November during Thursday’s session and snapped a three-month losing streak. The
S&P and Nasdaq rallied 8.9% and 10.7%, respectively, to notch their best
monthly performances since July 2022. The Dow surged 8.8% for its best month
since October 2022.
Both the Dow and S&P are also
headed for a winning week, with the Dow on pace to hit a fifth consecutive
winning week for the first time in more than two years. The Nasdaq is down
about 0.2% week to date and is slated to snap a four-week wining streak.
Despite Thursday’s big market win and November’s
upbeat market sentiment, some on Wall Street are advising that investors remain
cautious into year-end and 2024.
“Everyone’s really happy and it’s
time for either a correction or some sort of pullback as we enter the new
year,” Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on
Thursday.
The head of equity research added
that the market looks “dramatically overbought,” rate cuts seem unlikely until
the second half of 2024, and that investors should consider getting defensive.
Looking ahead, earnings reports
from Dominion Energy, Gartner and Cardinal Health are due out Friday.
Construction spending for October and ISM Manufacturing data for November are
also on deck.
Stock
market today: Live update (cnbc.com)
In other news, to no one’s surprise OPEC+ production cuts will continue
into 2024. But with a slowing global economy, will that be enough to hold Brent
crude priced in the 80s?
Oil kingpin
Saudi Arabia extends its production cut into first quarter as OPEC+ holds
policy
The influential
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries coalition and its allies,
collectively known as OPEC+, on Thursday opted against formally deepening
production cuts, while de facto leader Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million
barrel per day voluntary trim into the first quarter, and other members
announced further reductions.
The policy steps were
decided in a virtual meeting delayed by internal disagreements over the
baselines — the levels off which quotas are decided — of the OPEC group’s
largest West African members, Nigeria and Angola. The spat postponed talks
initially scheduled to be held in person in Vienna over the weekend of Nov.
25-26. The baselines of Angola, Nigeria and Congo remain under study.
The OPEC+ alliance
had already instituted a 2 million barrel per day cut in place until the end of
2024, with several coalition members voluntarily pledging a further 1.66
million barrel per day decline over that same period.
While OPEC+ has not formally endorsed production
reductions, market participants are following the possibility of further
voluntary cuts announced by key participants to the coalition. Already, Saudi
state media has announced that Riyadh will extend its
voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day, which it has had in place
since July, until the end of the first quarter of 2024.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister
Alexander Novak, who represents his country in OPEC+ affairs, has said Moscow
will implement a voluntary supply cut totaling 300,000 barrels per day of crude
and 200,000 barrels per day of petroleum products over that same period,
according to a Google-translated statement on Telegram.
Close Saudi ally Kuwait will enforce a 135,000 barrel per day
reduction in the first quarter, while the Energy Ministry of OPEC member
Algeria said it would trim a further 51,000
barrels per day. Oman said it
will also reduce output by 42,000 barrels per day in that same period.
Riyadh
to extend 1 million-barrel-per-day cut as OPEC+ holds policy (cnbc.com)
People of the same trade seldom meet
together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a
conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But
though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling
together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to
render them necessary.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Asia factory activity
weakens, uncertainty on China clouds outlook
By Leika Kihara December 1, 2023 5:46 AM GMT
TOKYO, Dec 1
(Reuters) - Asia's factory activity remained weak in November on soft global
demand, surveys showed on Friday, with mixed signs on the strength of China's
economy clouding the outlook for the region's fragile recovery.
China's
private Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing
purchasing managers' index (PMI) unexpectedly rose to 50.7 in November from a
49.5 reading in October, exceeding the 50 mark separating growth from
contraction and surpassing analysts' forecasts.
The
reading came a day after official survey that showed a
contraction in both manufacturers' and non-manufacturers' activity,
underscoring deepening troubles in the world's second largest economy.
"The
domestic market cannot make up for losses in Europe and the United States. The
data shows that factories are producing less and hiring fewer people," Dan
Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, said of China's PMI readings,
which have different samples.
Export-reliant
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan bore the brunt of sluggish global demand with
their manufacturing activity remaining stagnant in November, surveys showed.
"It's hard
to expect a recovery in Asia any time soon," said Toru Nishihama, chief
emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "While
exports probably hit bottom, they won't accelerate much from here as the global
economy lacks a key driver of growth."
Japan's final au
Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in November from 48.7 in October,
shrinking at the fastest pace in nine months.
South Korea's
PMI stood at 50.0 in November, rising slightly from October's reading of 49.8.
The factory gauge rebound came after 16 straight months of contraction through
October, the longest downturn since the survey began in April 2004.
Manufacturing
activity also shrank in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, but expanded in India,
Indonesia and the Philippines, the surveys showed.
More
Asia
factory activity weakens, uncertainty on China clouds outlook | Reuters
French economy
contracts in Q3, inflation eases further
November 30, 2023 8:39 AM GMT
PARIS, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The French
economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, revised data from
the statistics office INSEE showed on Thursday, while November inflation eased
more than expected.
The contribution of gross fixed capital
formation, which indicates how much of the new value added in an economy is
invested rather than consumed, to France's national output was revised
considerably downwards, while the contribution of domestic demand also slowed
to 0.2 points, INSEE said.
The stats office said the contribution
of external trade, at -0.4 points, had also negatively impacted gross domestic
product (GDP) during the third quarter, as imports grew.
In November, the EU-harmonised
preliminary inflation came to 3.8% year-on-year, below a Reuters poll of 19
economists, which had predicted a figure of 4.1%. The inflation was down from
4.5% in October, helped by easing price pressure in energy and in the services
sector.
Food prices rose 7.6% in November,
versus 7.8% in October while the increase in energy prices slowed to 3.1% after
seeing an increase of 5.2% last month.
Month-on-month, prices declined by 0.2%
as falling transportation and energy prices offset a month-on-month rise of
food prices, especially fresh produce.
Despite the unexpected economic
contraction, the government kept its 1% growth forecast for 2023.
"I
maintain my growth forecasts. We will have positive growth this year and higher
growth in 2024 than in 2023," Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said on
French radio, adding that he was sticking with his forecast of 1.4% growth next
year.
French economy contracts in Q3, inflation eases
further | Reuters
These 16 states are already in a recession
November
29, 2023
The economies of 16 US states contracted
between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid
a recession.
The latest State Coincident Indexes release
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows a third of state economies
contracted during the three-month period, compared to just nine states between
June and September. Between July and October, the indexes increased in 33
states and remained stable in one state.
These changes were most pronounced in
West Virginia, with a three-month contraction of over 2.7%. Michigan and
Montana also had contractions of over 1%, while Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa
had declines of about 0.8%.
Meanwhile, Maryland, North Dakota,
and South Carolina had economic growth of over 1% during the period. Texas came
in at 0.85%, similar to Nevada and Wyoming. California's economy grew by 0.47%,
while Florida experienced a 0.65% increase.
Among the 10 states with the
highest GDPs, seven —
California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina —
are growing their economies, according to the three-month data.
This growth "should be
enough to keep the US economy as a whole from falling into recession this
quarter," DataTrek Research cofounders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe
said in a note on Monday. "How these trends develop through the balance of
Q4 will tell us a lot about the state of the US economy as we enter 2024."
Looking at month-over-month
rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while 16 states saw economic
growth.
A recession occurs when an
economy suffers a widespread and severe downturn across different dimensions.
The state coincident indexes capture several of those dimensions across labor
markets, industrial production, and people's real incomes.
The coincident indexes pull
together four state-level indicators, including nonfarm payroll employment, the
unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers,
and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index. Those
measures echo the metrics
the National Bureau of Economic Research tracks
to determine whether the national economy as a whole is in a recession.
Experts remain divided on
whether the US will avoid a recession in
2024. Some believe a recession is likely in 2024, including Citadel founder Ken
Griffin, who told Bloomberg he
expects to see a "recessionary environment" around the second
quarter.
Others, though, think a
recession may not arrive until 2025 — or may not occur at all. Raphael Bostic,
the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, told CNBC, "We
are not going to see recession, that is not in my outlook. We are going to see
a slowdown, and inflation will get down to 2%."
These 16 states are already in a recession (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
DNA
Contamination in COVID-19 Vaccines May Explain Rise in Cancers, Clots,
Autoimmune Diseases: Pathologist
Clinical pathologist and immunology specialist Dr. Ryan Cole said that DNA contamination in some COVID-19 vaccines may be linked to a rise in various cancers.
11/28/2023 Updated: 11/28/2023
Clinical
pathologist Dr. Ryan Cole has said that DNA contamination in some COVID-19
vaccines may be related to an increase in cancers, micro-clotting, and
autoimmune diseases.
“My big concern is the fact that billions of
people across the earth have received a product that was overtly contaminated
with something that should not have been in the product," Dr. Cole, an
anatomic clinical pathologist with postgraduate Ph.D. training in immunology,
recently told the "American Thought Leaders" program.
"If I
went and bought some meat at the grocery store and they had heavy metal or
pesticide toxins, they would pull those from the shelves immediately," he
added.
Recently,
researchers found that vaccine vials
containing Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines had billions of residual DNA fragments,
including molecules derived from Simian Virus 40 (SV40) used as
"promoters" or "enhancers" that help produce the mRNA
molecules that help human cells make proteins that trigger an immune response
inside the body.
Monkey
Virus 'Enhancers' in Vaccines
SV40 is a monkey polyomavirus that has been
linked to cancer in laboratory animals. While the virus itself was not found to
be present in Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, the presence of the SV40 enhancer gene
is controversial because it comes from a virus associated with malignant transformation.
However, some experts have raised concerns that the SV40 enhancer itself may be
associated with adverse events.
Dr. Cole
believes that the SV40 enhancer has health risks, saying it contains a
"concerning" nuclear co-localization sequence that "allows it to
get into the nucleus of the cell and to induce these different pathways of
action and mechanisms that can, again, go haywire, mutate, cause
toxicity."
Molecular
virologist David Speicher, the lead author of the study that found SV40
enhancers in COVID-19 vaccines, told The Epoch Times in a recent interview that
much more research is needed to investigate DNA contamination in the COVID-19
vaccines. Unanswered questions include whether the SV40 sequence in the
vaccines is triggering "turbo cancers," meaning ones of a
particularly aggressive and fast-growing variety, he said.
A recent review of cancer registry records from 44 countries found a rapid rise in
the incidence of early-onset cancers for 14 types—including colorectal, breast,
esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancers—especially in younger adults.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
A new
kind of solar cell is coming: is it the future of green energy?
Firms
commercializing perovskite–silicon ‘tandem’ photovoltaics say that the panels
will be more efficient and could lead to cheaper electricity.
29 November 2023
On the outskirts of
Brandenburg an der Havel, Germany, nestled among car dealerships and hardware
shops, sits a two-storey factory stuffed with solar-power secrets. It’s here
where UK firm Oxford PV is producing commercial solar cells using
perovskites: cheap, abundant photovoltaic (PV) materials that some have hailed
as the future of green energy. Surrounded by unkempt grass and a weed-strewn
car park, the factory is a modest cradle for such a potentially transformative
technology, but the firm’s chief technology officer Chris Case is clearly in
love with the place. “This is the culmination of my dreams,” he says.
The firm is one of more
than a dozen companies betting that perovskites are finally poised to push the
global transition to renewable energy into overdrive. A few niche
perovskite-based PV products are already on the market, but announcements this
year signal that many more are set to join them. Case says that end users
should get their hands on solar panels made from Oxford PV’s cells around the
middle of next year, for example. In May, a large silicon PV manufacturer,
Hanwha Qcells, headquartered in Seoul, said it plans to invest US$100 million in a pilot production
line that could be
operational by the end of 2024.
Silicon is the
workhorse material inside 95% of solar panels. Rather than replace it, Oxford
PV, Qcells and others are piggybacking on it — layering perovskite on silicon
to create so-called tandem cells. Because each material absorbs energy from
different wavelengths of sunlight, tandems could potentially deliver at least
20% more power than a silicon cell alone; some scientists project much greater
gains.
Perovskite supporters
say that this extra electricity could more than offset the additional costs of
tandem cells, particularly in crowded urban areas or industrial sites where
space is at a premium. “Our biggest initial demand is from utilities, because
they simply don’t have enough accessible land,” says Case.
As
perovskite–silicon tandems get closer to market, excitement has boiled over
into headlines predicting that a “revolutionary” “miracle material” is “about
to change the world”. The reality is that the industry faces at least two major
challenges in its battle to transform the solar market.
First, published
research shows that the perovskites’ performance declines much more quickly
than silicon when they are exposed to moisture, heat and even light. Oxford PV
says it has done private research that’s overcome this issue. But “for
commercial manufacturing, I would say stability is the key challenge that still
remains”, says Fabian Fertig, Qcells’ director of research and development for
wafers and cells, who leads the company’s development of perovskite–silicon
tandems.
More
A new kind of solar cell is coming: is it the future
of green energy? (nature.com)
Another
weekend and the Gaza killing resumes. How long it stays localised is an open
question, but nothing good for anyone lies down this path.
There's no honorable way to kill, no gentle way to
destroy. There is nothing good in war. Except its ending.
Abraham Lincoln.
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