Baltic
Dry Index. 2411 -27 Brent Crude 76.79
Spot Gold 2036 US 2 Year Yield 4.37 -0.09
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
It’s party time in the
stock casinos again. The world’s leading central banks think inflation is dead,
recession is impossible and it’s time for all good men and women to come to the
aid of the stock casino party.
What could possibly go
wrong in a US presidential year? Why worry about two very nasty, brutal and
very murderous, seemingly never-ending wars.
Look away from a rising real estate failure in China, Europe and the USA now.
Fed Chairman Powell and
the rest of the central bankster mob are about to bring out the spiked punch
bowl next year.
Hong Kong shares
surge 3%, leading gains in Asia markets even as key China data shows uneven
recovery
UPDATED THU, DEC 14 2023 10:53 PM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets climbed Friday, led by Hong Kong, as Wall Street continued to rally
after the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates and laid out a roadmap for cuts in
2024 and beyond.
China released
November data for its industrial output growth, retail sales, house prices and
urban investment. Most notably, it posted its biggest industrial output
expansion since February 2022 in November, though retail sales growth
underwhelmed expectations.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led
gains in Asia and surged 3.27% higher, while the CSI 300 index was up 0.7%
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 continued
to extend its four-month high, up 1.04% and on pace for a sixth straight day of
gains.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 also
rebounded from Thursday’s losses, up 1.21%, while the Topix was also 0.76%
higher.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced
0.93% and the small-cap Kosdaq was marginally lower.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended
its record breaking rally to hit new record highs, gaining 0.43%.
Other major indexes also
continued their advance, with the S&P 500 adding
0.26% and the Nasdaq
Composite up 0.19%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield
dropped below
4% for the first time since August as traders bet on rate cuts
for 2024 mount.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates, China data (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed after Dow
notches fresh record: Live updates
UPDATED THU, DEC 14 2023 6:54 PM
EST
U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday
night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a fresh record, heading
for its best weekly winning streak since 2019.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures fell by 10 points, or 0.03%. S&P 500 dipped 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100
futures rose 0.06%.
Wall Street is coming off yet
another fresh record high for the Dow on Thursday, after notching its
first-ever close above 37,000 on Wednesday. The 30-stock benchmark rose 158
points, or 0.43% at 37,248.35. The S&P 500 gained 0.26% to 4,719.55.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.19% to 14,761.56.
The S&P 500 could soon join
the Dow with its own all-time high. The broader index is less than 1.6% away
from a record close set in January 2022. The Nasdaq is roughly 8% away from its
highest-ever close, and about 9% from its all-time intraday high.
Stocks rallied this week after
the Federal Reserve on Wednesday admitted that its efforts to tamp down
inflation are taking hold, and indicated three interest rate cuts are coming in
2024, buoying investor sentiment. The November retail sales data that came in
stronger than expected on Thursday, following this week’s cooler inflation
readings, added to hopes the Federal Reserve could navigate a soft landing.
“What we heard from Fed Chair
Powell was that it’s not about the economy, it’s not about financial
conditions, it’s not about the jobs market. It’s about inflation and inflation
have been coming down pretty far and fast,” Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment
strategist at iCapital, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on
Thursday.
“And if we’re at a point where
inflation is 2.7%, by March, that consensus is expecting interest rates are
still at 5.5%,” Amoroso said. “That’s a big gap that the Fed can do something
about, meaning cutting rates.”
Treasury yields plunged this
week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to below 4% despite topping 5% in
October.
The major averages are headed for
their seventh straight positive week. As of Thursday, the Dow is higher on the
week by 2.8%. The S&P 500 is up by 2.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose
2.5% this week.
Stock
futures today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other real economy news, China hits and misses and proposes to issue more off balance sheet “special debt.”
China
reports fastest industrial expansion in nearly 2 years; retail sales growth
misses estimates
China reported Friday
its industrial output expanded at the fastest pace since February 2022 in
November, though retail sales growth missed expectations, pointing to a patchy
recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
Economists are
approaching the China data with some caution, given a low base effect. The
country was in the final months of its stringent zero-Covid curbs in the last
quarter of 2022, which had adversely impacted the economy.
“The data is a mixed
bag,” Miao Ouyang, Bank of America’s Greater China economist, told CNBC. “If
you look at the whole set of data, it still shows that domestic demand is still
on the weak side...and [the government] still definitely needs to do more to
stabilize the economy.”
China’s industrial output grew 6.6% in November
from a year earlier, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics
Friday. This outpaced expectations for 5.6% in a Reuters poll and
follows a 4.6% rise in October.
Retail sales climbed 10.1% in
November from a year ago, the fastest pace of growth since May — though
analysts had expected a 12.5% spike following a low base in 2022. Retail sales
rose 7.6% in October.
Fixed asset investment in urban
areas cumulatively grew 2.9% in the first 11 months of the year, compared with
expectations for 3% growth. China’s urban unemployment rate stayed at 5% in
November.
---- The post-Covid recovery of the world’s second-largest
economy has so far fallen short of expectations, plagued by a festering real
estate crisis, debt risks and chronic youth unemployment.
A slew of policy
support measures have not sufficiently lifted economic sentiment, igniting
calls for Beijing to amp up its stimulus amid fears of a deepening slowdown.
---- On a cumulative basis in the first 11 months,
investments in infrastructure and manufacturing increased 5.8% and 6.3%,
year-on-year, respectively; retail sales rose 7.2%, while real estate
development investment dropped 9.4%, China’s NBS said.
Official data released earlier
Friday showed that China’s new home prices fell for the fifth
straight month in November, underscoring weak confidence in demand and
investment as some of the largest real estate developers are facing serious
debt problems as Beijing strives
to deleverage its once-bloated real estate sector.
More
China
data: industrial output growth at 2-year high, retail sales disappoint
(cnbc.com)
Exclusive: China to run
budget gap of 3% of GDP in 2024, issue special debt
December 15, 20233:3 6 AM GMT
Dec 15 (Reuters)
- Chinese leaders agreed at an annual meeting on the economy this week to run a
budget deficit of 3% of gross domestic product in 2024, three sources with
knowledge of the matter said, while other fiscal support may be covered by
off-budget debt.
While the
deficit figure is lower than this year's revised 3.8% target, suggesting
Beijing wants to maintain fiscal discipline and is not considering a big fiscal
bazooka next year, the option to issue off-budget sovereign debt gives it
flexibility to step up stimulus to maintain stable economic growth.
Two of the sources told Reuters special sovereign
bonds could be issued to pay for extra expenditures as needed. One of them said
they could amount to 1 trillion yuan ($140.16 billion).
All three sources spoke on condition of anonymity
due to the sensitivity of the discussions.
China has issued special treasury bonds before. In
2020, it sold 1 trillion yuan in such debt to fund COVID-related measures. In
2007, it issued 1.55 trillion yuan to capitalise its sovereign wealth fund. In
1998, it issued 270 billion yuan to recapitalise state banks.
China does not
include special bonds in its annual budget plans, as it sees the instrument as
an extraordinary measure to raise proceeds for specific projects or policy
goals in times of need.
"The 2024
deficit ratio is set to be 3% and the insufficient part can be supplemented by
special sovereign debt," one of the sources said.
China's State
Council Information Office, which handles media queries on behalf of the
government, the finance ministry, and top state planner the National
Development and Reform Commission did not immediately respond to a Reuters'
request for comment.
More
Exclusive:
China to run budget gap of 3% of GDP in 2024, issue special debt | Reuters
Finally, more on the cost of the latest war.
Plus there’s the hit to the Israeli economy.
Gaza war hits
neighboring Arab economies, could cut GDP 2.3% - UN study
By Suleiman
Al-Khalidi December 14, 2023 8:05
AM GMT
AMMAN, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The economic
cost of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on Arab neighbours Lebanon, Egypt and
Jordan could rise to at least $10 billion this year and push more than 230,000
people into poverty, according to a U.N. study.
The war has come as the three Arab
countries face a struggle with fiscal pressures, slow growth and steep
unemployment, and it has deterred much-needed investment as well as hitting
consumption and trade. Lebanon is in a deep economic crisis.
The study, commissioned by the United
Nations Development Programme, said the cost of the conflict for the three
states in terms of loss of GDP may amount to $10.3 billion or 2.3%, and could
double if it lasts another six months.
"This is a massive impact,"
Abdallah Al Dardari, U.N. assistant secretary-general and UNDP's Director of
the Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS) who lead the study told Reuters.
"The crisis was a bomb in an
already fragile regional situation... It soured sentiment with fear of what
could happen and where things are going," he said.
Israel launched its campaign to
annihilate the Hamas militant group that controls Gaza after fighters stormed
across the border on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, and
seizing 240 hostages, according to Israel.
Since then, Israeli forces have
besieged the enclave and laid much of it to waste, with more than 18,000 people
confirmed killed, according to Palestinian health authorities, and many
thousands feared lost in the rubble or beyond the reach of ambulances.
Dardari said the scale of destruction
in Gaza within such a brief time was unprecedented since World War Two.
"To lose 45-50% of all housing in
one month of fighting ... We have never seen anything like this ... the
relationship between destruction level and time, it's unique," Al Dardari
said.
The mass displacement of almost 80% of
Gaza's population within such a short period eclipsed the more than decade-old
Syrian conflict, which sparked the world's biggest refugee crisis.
"It took Syria five years of
fighting to reach the same level of destruction that Gaza reached in one
month," said Dardari, a former minister for economic affairs in the Syrian
government.
Dardari, an expert on reconstruction in
conflict zones, said his team was already reaching out to development funds and
multilateral financial institutions on post-war reconstruction scenarios for
Gaza.
"We are not waiting until the
battles end... this effort has begun," Dardari said, without elaborating.
Gaza war hits neighboring Arab economies, could cut
GDP 2.3% - UN study | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
European Central
Bank holds rates, will start shrinking balance sheet
PUBLISHED THU, DEC 14 2023 8:28
AM EST
The European Central Bank on
Thursday held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row, as it
revised its growth forecasts lower and announced plans to shrink its balance
sheet.
The bank was widely expected to
leave policy unchanged in light of the sharp fall in euro zone inflation, as
investors instead chase signals on when the first rate cut may come and assess
the ECB’s plans to shrink its balance sheet.
“The Governing Council’s future
decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently
restrictive levels for as long as necessary,” it said in a statement.
The latest staff macroeconomic projections see average real GDP expanding
0.6% in 2023, from a prior forecast of 0.7%. They estimate GDP will expand by
0.8% in 2024, from 1%, previously. The forecast for 2025 was unchanged, at
1.5%.
Headline inflation is meanwhile seen averaging 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024
and 2.1% in 2025. It had previously forecast readings of 5.6% this year, 3.2%
in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. The ECB now also released a new estimate for 2026, at
1.9%.
The decision keeps the central bank’s key rate at a record
high of 4%.
The ECB announced reinvestments under its pandemic emergency purchase
programme (PEPP), a temporary asset purchase scheme, would complete at the end
of 2024.
The transition will be gradual, with a reduction in the PEPP portfolio by
7.5 billion euros ($8.19 billion) per month on average over the second half of
2024, it said, as the Governing Council ageed to “advance the normalisation of
the Eurosystem’s balance sheet.”
“I think most people thought [the announcement on PEPP] would come a little
bit later, and that might come in the rate cut debaet and that was the sort of
price that the doves would have to pay,” James Smith, developed market
economist at ING, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche after the announcement.
Fall in inflation
Euro zone year-on-year inflation has moderated from 10.6% in October 2022 to
2.4% in the most recent reading in November. That has put the ECB’s 2% target
within grasp, even as officials note the threat that wage pressures and energy
market volatility will cause a potential resurgence.
More
European Central Bank holds rates, will start
shrinking balance sheet (cnbc.com)
Bank of
England leaves policy unchanged, says rates to stay high for ‘extended period’
PUBLISHED THU, DEC 14 2023 7:05
AM EST
LONDON — The Bank of
England on Thursday kept its main interest rate unchanged at 5.25% and
said monetary policy is “likely to need to be restrictive for an extended
period of time.”
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 in favor of holding rates steady for
a third consecutive meeting. The three dissenting members favored a further 25
basis point hike to 5.5%.
U.K.
headline inflation fell to an annual 4.6% in October, its lowest point
in two years, while wage
growth has also undershot expectations of late but remains
uncomfortably high for the central bank, as it looks to bring inflation down
towards its 2% target sustainably.
The MPC noted in Thursday’s report that “key indicators of U.K. inflation
persistence remain elevated,” although tighter monetary policy is leading to a
looser labor market and weighing on activity in the real economy.
Real
U.K. GDP was flat in the third quarter, in line with the Monetary Policy
Committee’s projections, but the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.3%
month-on-month in October.
The central bank ended a run
of 14 straight hikes in September, after lifting its benchmark rate from
0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% between December 2021 and August 2023.
----However,
the MPC once again pushed back against market expectations, reiterating that
rates will need to stay in restrictive territory for an extended period of time
in order to return inflation to target over the medium term.
“As illustrated by the November
Monetary Policy Report projections, the Committee continues to judge that
monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of
time,” the MPC said.
“Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were
evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.”
November’s report projected the consumer price index will average around
4.75% in the fourth quarter of 2023, before dropping to around 4.5% in the
first quarter of next year and 3.75% in the second quarter.
At the same time, GDP is expected to grow by just 0.1% in the fourth quarter
after flatlining in the third.
The Bank
last week warned that although household finances are faring better
than expected, higher borrowing costs have yet to fully feed through to the
economy.
More
Bank of England leaves policy unchanged, says rates to
stay high for 'extended period' (cnbc.com)
Swiss
central bank holds interest rate steady as inflation eases
Published on 14/12/2023 - 10:33
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has once again decided to leave its policy
interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, as analysts expected, citing easing
inflationary pressure yet lingering unpredictability in the global economy.
The lender said in a statement on Thursday morning that global economic
growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter of the year,
contributing to its decision to refrain from any further monetary policy
tightening for the time being.
"Uncertainty remains high," the SNB nevertheless warned,
adding that it would adjust its policy as necessary to keep inflation under
control.
Inflation in Switzerland stood at 1.4% in November - below its 2% target
- which the central bank attributed to lower inflation on goods and tourism.
"However, inflation is likely to increase again somewhat in the
coming months due to higher electricity prices and rents, as well as the
rise in VAT," the SNB said.
It also warned that growth in the global economy for the coming quarters
would remain subdued - as well as that of Switzerland itself - despite a probable ease in inflationary pressure.
More
Swiss central bank holds interest rate steady as
inflation eases | Euronews
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, something a little different, more
on vitamin D deficiency. In covid cases,
vitamin D deficiency is known to make the covid infection worse.
Over 4 Percent of
Vitamin D Deficient People Developed Cancer in Study
Colorectal
cancer was the most common cancer among people with vitamin D deficiency,
followed by cancers of the liver, breast, and lungs.
12/13/2023 Updated: 12/13/2023
More than 4
percent of people suffering from vitamin D deficiency were found to have
developed cancer, with the cancer rate worsening as age increased, according to
a recent study.
The study, published in the Frontiers in Nutrition journal
on Dec. 7, analyzed 5,242 people from Taiwan with vitamin D deficiency. The
development of new-onset cancer (cancer in its beginning stages) was seen in
229 patients, representing 4.37 percent of individuals in the study. According
to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the
annual rate of new cancers in the United States among the general population in
2020 was 403 per 100,000 individuals or 0.4 percent.
The study
found that the cancer rate was higher among older populations.
While vitamin D
deficient patients older than 65 had a new-onset cancer rate of 7.74 percent,
this dropped to 5.35 percent among those aged 50 to 65 years, and 1.88 percent
among people younger than 50 years.
Out of the 229
patients with cancer, the most prevalent was colorectal cancer, recorded in 32
patients.
This was followed
by cancers of the liver, breast, lungs, hematopoietic system, thyroid,
cervical, ovarian, and uterine. Other cancers like stomach, skin, pancreatic,
fallopian tube, and kidney registered 10 or fewer patients each.
In the study,
researchers analyzed comorbidities using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI)
score. Comorbidity refers to the simultaneous existence of more than one
disease or medical condition in an individual.
CCI is a way of
categorizing comorbidities, which in this study was used to grade the severity
of comorbid conditions into three groups—CCI value of zero, CCI value of one to
two, and CCI value of three or higher.
The researchers
found that when the CCI score was more than three, patients with vitamin D
deficiency had a “significantly higher cancer incidence rate,” with 8.03
percent of such individuals developing the disease. The cancer rate fell to
6.26 percent for patients with a CCI score of one or two, and declined to 3.18
percent for a CCI score of zero.
More
Over 4 Percent of Vitamin D Deficient People Developed Cancer in Study | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Yamaha
hydrogen combustion outboard brings more clean H2 to boating
C.C. Weiss December 11, 2023
Yamaha
Motor has already pushed to the front of the pack in developing hydrogen
engines for automobiles and off-highway off-roaders, and now it's looking to launch its hydrogen-combustion
program into the water. A potentially critical piece of its greater carbon
neutrality program, Yamaha's new hydrogen outboard prototype will debut at the
upcoming 2024 Miami International Boat Show, previewing a cleaner future for
boaters and marine consumers.
Long before
government and industry were rapidly prodding along cleaner, more carbon
neutral motor vehicles, Yamaha was experimenting with everything from
transforming electric
motorcycles to methanol fuel cells. Its ingenuity
hasn't slowed over time, either – in recent years it's explored a water-powered
motorcycle, a steerable electric marine
drive and swappable bike batteries. And it's been hard at work on a
5.0-liter V8 hydrogen
combustion engine for none other
than Toyota, possibly hydrogen's most well-known proponent.
As it prepares to
meet carbon neutrality goals, Yamaha plans to continue its multidirectional
clean energy strategy, the company emphasized during a marine technology
presentation last week. It expects Scope 1 and 2 neutrality to come by 2035,
but Scope 3 emissions are a whole different animal, accounting for a whopping
98.6% of Yamaha's carbon emissions, according to company estimates.
The Scope 3
category runs the full length of the supply chain, encompassing everything from
emissions created during the procurement and processing of raw materials to
those created while selling and delivering the finished product. The most
significant portion (over 80%), though, comes from the end use of Yamaha
products, including motorcycles, personal watercraft and outboard engines.
More
Yamaha hydrogen combustion outboard brings more clean
H2 to boating (newatlas.com)
Another weekend and despite two wars
and a faltering global economy, the world’s leading central banksters have just kicked off the roaring 20s again in the stock casinos. In our Great Nixonian Error of Fiat
Money, Greenspan financialised modern world, we are about to stocks bubble our
way to universal prosperity. Shame about those left behind still working for a
living though. Have a great weekend everyone.
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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