Baltic Dry Index. 3192 +255 Brent Crude 78.16
Spot Gold 2087 US 2 Year Yield 4.56 -0.17
On December 4, 1875, William Magear “Boss” Tweed, notorious grand sachem of New York City’s Democratic political machine Tammany Hall, escaped from the Ludlow Street jail where he was being held on charges of stealing somewhere between $20 and $300 million from the city treasury. While awaiting trial, Tweed was granted special privileges not offered to other inmates, such as a luxurious cell, catered meals, carriage rides and home visits. It was on a family visit at his home on 647 Madison Avenue that Tweed escaped his jailer and fled to New Jersey.
With the US fiat dollar weaponised and compromised, the prospect of much lower US interest rates next year has much of the world scrambling to get out of dollars and into gold.
Bitcoin is soaring too, but I prefer something with intrinsic value over a fictitious almost currency, mostly used by fraudsters, criminals and money launders.
With the Fed all set to kick off the attempted
Biden re-election boom next year, US debt increasing by trillions each year and
the dollar weaponised, it’s hardly surprising that many global central banks
have said that they too will be adding to gold reserves next year.
Asia markets
mixed as investors await this week’s key inflation data
UPDATED SUN, DEC 3 2023 11:17 PM
EST
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed on Monday, with investors awaiting a slew of key economic
data Tuesday and inflation readings later this week.
Inflation reading
for Tokyo will be released Tuesday, which is widely seen as a leading indicator
for nationwide trends. South Korea inflation numbers will also be out the same
day.
The Reserve Bank of
Australia will hold its final meeting for the year tomorrow, with economists
polled by Reuters expecting the bank to hold rates at 4.35%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.97%, leading gains among major benchmarks in Asia-Pacific.
South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.64%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq pared earlier gains to rise 0.17%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped
0.51%, and the Topix fell 0.65%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
0.2%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index slipped 0.23%.
On Friday in the U.S., the S&P 500 and
the Dow Jones
Industrial Average hit
new highs for 2023, gaining 0.59% and 0.82% respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.55%.
This came despite U.S. Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushing
back against the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts
ahead, saying it was “premature to conclude with confidence” that monetary
policy was “sufficiently restrictive.”
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates -inflation, RBA decision (cnbc.com)
Gold soars past $2,100 to new record — and
analysts don’t expect it to stop there
Gold prices notched
a new record on Monday for a second day in a row — with spot
prices touching $2,100 as the global rush for bullion appears set to continue.
Gold prices are on course to hit
fresh highs next year and could remain above $2,000 levels, analysts said,
citing geopolitical uncertainty, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and possible
interest rate cuts.
Prices of the yellow metal have
risen for two consecutive months with the Israel-Palestinian
conflict boosting demand for the safe-haven asset, while
expectations of interest rate cuts have provided further support. Gold
tends to perform well during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty
due to its status as a reliable store of value.
“The anticipated retreat in both
the USD and interest rates across 2024 are key positive drivers for gold,”
UOB’s Head of Markets Strategy, Global Economics and Markets Research, Heng
Koon How, told CNBC via email. He estimated that gold prices could reach up to
$2,200 by the end of 2024.
Similarly, another analyst is
bullish on bullion’s outlook.
“There is simply less leverage this
time around vs 2011 in gold ... taking prices through $2,100 and putting
$2,200/oz in view,” said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at precious
metals firm MKS PAMP.
Spot gold prices rose to a new record high of
$2,110.8 per ounce Monday before giving up some gains. It is currently trading
at $2,084.59.
On Friday, gold touched $2,075.09 to surpass a precious intraday record
high of $2,072.5 on Aug. 7, 2020, according to LSEG data.
Bart Melek, head of commodity
strategies at TD Securities, expects gold prices to average $2,100 in the
second quarter of 2024, with strong central bank purchases acting as a key
catalyst in boosting prices.
According to a recent survey by the
World Gold Council, 24% of all central banks intend to increase their gold
reserves in the next 12 months, as they increasingly grow
pessimistic about the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset.
More
Gold
prices at record highs amid economic, geopolitical uncertainty (cnbc.com)
Bitcoin breaks $40,000
as momentum builds
December 4, 20231 2:43 AM GMT
TOKYO, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Bitcoin has
broken above $40,000 for the first time this year as it rides a wave of
momentum on broad enthusiasm about U.S. interest rate cuts and as traders
anticipate the imminent approval of U.S.-stockmarket traded bitcoin funds.
The world's biggest [crypto]currency
hit as high as $40,210 in Sunday trade, its highest since April 2022. It was
steady at $40,011 in thin trade early in the Asia day on Monday.
"We'll see if it sticks throughout
the day, but bitcoin loves a break of big psychological levels, so it excites
the bit-bugs again and adds to this momentum," said Capital.com analyst
Kyle Rodda.
For the year, bitcoin has more than
doubled as it has thrown off the doldrums of the so-called "crypto
winter" that followed scandals including the collapse of exchange FTX last
year.
Riskier investments and other
interest-rate sensitive assets, such as gold, have also rallied hard over the
last few weeks as markets wager that the U.S. Federal Reserve has finished
hiking rates and will start cutting early in 2023.
More
Bitcoin
breaks $40,000 as momentum builds | Reuters
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Service PMIs, the German
Economy and the US Jobs Report
By:Bob Mason Published: Dec
3, 2023, 03:43 GMT
Key
economic indicators from Germany and China will give the markets a view of the
global demand environment ahead of the US Jobs Report
----The
Key Euro Area Economic Indicators for the Week Ahead
Monday brings the German economy into the spotlight as investors await the
release of trade data for October. These figures will reveal any shifts in
global trade dynamics. A decline in exports would fuel to concerns about a
prolonged German economic downturn and could impact the sentiment toward the
EUR/USD.
On Tuesday, service sector PMIs take center stage. The services sector
contributes significantly, accounting for over 60% of the Eurozone economy. A
dip in service sector activity would alleviate inflationary pressures,
potentially supporting a less hawkish stance from the ECB. The services sector
is the primary driver of Eurozone inflation trends.
German factory orders (Wed) and industrial production (Thurs) data warrant
scrutiny. Outperforming numbers could kindle hopes of a softer economic
downturn. Additionally, Eurozone GDP figures will garner investor interest on
Thursday, shedding light on the broader macroeconomic environment.
On Friday, finalized German inflation figures will draw investor
attention. Revisions to these numbers could influence expectations regarding a
potential ECB rate cut in H1 2024.
While the data is relevant, investors must monitor any
commentary from the ECB. Deviations from a commitment for higher-for-longer
could sway market sentiment. ECB President Christine Lagarde is on the calendar to speak on Monday and Thursday.
US Dollar
Factory orders will kickstart the week’s events for the US dollar.
However, unless there is a significant drop in orders, investors may exercise
caution, awaiting more impactful reports slated for Tuesday.
Tuesday could be crucial, with the focus on the all-important ISM
Non-Manufacturing PMI and JOLTs Job Openings. A notable uptick in service
sector activity could challenge bets on a less hawkish Fed rate trajectory.
Nonetheless, the labor market data could sway buyer sentiment towards the US
dollar.
A decline in job openings and a modest increase in ADP nonfarm payrolls on
Wednesday might offer early signs of fatigue in the US labor market.
Thursday brings jobless claims, unit labor costs, and nonfarm productivity
figures into the equation. However, it is the US Jobs Report that will take
center stage on Friday. Softer wage growth and looser labor market conditions
could heighten speculation about a Fed rate cut in H1 2024.
A deterioration in labor market conditions and waning consumer confidence
could signal a sharp contraction in consumer spending. Such a pullback in
spending would alleviate demand-driven inflationary pressures and adversely
affect the broader economy. US private consumption contributes over 60% to the
economy.
More
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Service PMIs, the German
Economy and the US Jobs Report (fxempire.com)
German finance minister names target areas for cuts
amid budget crisis - Funke media
December 2, 2023
BERLIN
(Reuters) - Germany needs to cut social spending, international spending and
some subsidies to fill the 17 billion euro ($18.50 billion) gap in its 2024
budget, its finance minister said in an interview with the Funke media group
published on Saturday.
On social
spending, Lindner said the unemployed needed to be brought into the labour
market faster.
On
international spending, Germany could "reduce the distance" between
itself and the next biggest spender on development cooperation and
international climate financing, Lindner said.
The minister
said he did not want to specify yet which subsidies should be cut, but that
there were numerous examples "where we should ask if they actually meet
their targets or are out of date".
Lindner and
his coalition partners are in intensive talks on how to fill the gap blown in
the 2024 budget by the Constitutional Court last month.
The court
found the coalition government's decision to re-allocate 60 billion euros of
unused debt from the pandemic era to its climate and transformation fund to be
unconstitutional.
The ruling
also affects other off-budget funds that Germany has used over the years to
finance government policy in order to comply with its self-imposed debt brake,
which restricts the public deficit to 0.35% of GDP.
German finance minister names target areas for cuts amid budget crisis - Funke media (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Eurozone
inflation falls more than expected to 2.4%
Tensions
rise between investors pricing in interest rate cuts and central banks warning
of persistent price pressures
Inflation in the eurozone has fallen far more than expected to 2.4 per cent in November, the slowest annual pace since July 2021, providing some relief to consumers and fuelling hopes that interest rates could soon be cut.
The sharp drop from 2.9 per cent a month earlier adds to tensions between investors who hope rates will be cut soon and central bankers seeking to keep borrowing costs high until the biggest surge in inflation for a generation has been definitively tamed.
Falling energy prices and lower growth in food and services prices were the main factors behind the slowdown in the harmonised index of consumer prices, according to data published on Thursday by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics arm.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a more modest slowdown to 2.7 per cent. The drop in inflation has prompted investors to bring forward their bets of when the European Central Bank could start cutting its deposit rate to as early as next April.
“Falling
inflation and a stagnant economy could justify ECB cuts as soon as the first
quarter of next year in our view,” said Matthew Landon, a strategist at
JPMorgan Private Bank. “It is looking more and more likely that Lagarde and co
could lead the developed world into the next cutting cycle.”
The euro extended its recent losses, falling 0.6 per cent against the US dollar
to $1.091.
However, ECB president Christine Lagarde warned this week it was “not the time to start declaring victory” in the push to bring inflation down to the bank’s 2 per cent target. The ECB chief added that wage pressures “remain strong” and had become “a key factor driving domestic inflation”. The ECB will meet on December 14, when economists expect it to cut its forecasts for growth and inflation.
But Andrew Kenningham, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said rate-setters are “sure” to say it is still “far too early to cut rates”, especially as higher energy prices were likely to drive eurozone inflation back above 3 per cent in December.
The slowdown in eurozone price growth from its peak of 10.6 per cent a year ago is expected to offer a further boost to consumers’ purchasing power, as wages rise faster than prices.
However, the cost of living remains almost 20 per cent higher than before the inflation surge started three years ago.
Fabio Panetta said in his first speech since leaving the ECB to become Italy’s central bank governor that “continued weakness in economic activity” could accelerate the fall in inflation and mean monetary policy needs to remain tight for only a “short” period.
----While Lagarde said on Monday that price pressures are expected to ease further, she added that “headline inflation may rise again slightly in the coming months, mainly owing to some base effects” — a reference to an expected levelling off of energy prices.
The OECD also forecast on Wednesday that the ECB would not start cutting rates until 2025 because of persistent price pressures.
Inflation
within the eurozone still ranges widely, from 6.9 per cent in Slovakia to minus
0.7 per cent in Belgium for the year to November. Five of the 20 countries that
share the euro have inflation below the ECB’s 2 per cent target, including
Italy and the Netherlands.
More
Eurozone inflation falls more than expected to 2.4% (ft.com)
Oil down on
persistent uncertainty over OPEC+ supply cuts
By Mohi Narayan and Florence Tan December 4, 2023 4:36 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Dec 4
(Reuters) - Oil futures reversed course after rising briefly on Monday amid
persistent pressure from the OPEC+ decision and uncertainty over global fuel
demand growth, although the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East
conflict limited the losses.
Brent crude
futures were down 0.6%, or 49 cents, to $78.39 a barrel by 0406 GMT, while U.S.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $73.65 a barrel, down 0.6%, or 42
cents.
"Crude seems
to be under continued pressure from the OPEC+ decision ... Some degree of
discounting of the deeper OPEC+ cuts is justified, but as of now, the crude
complex has completely disregarded them," said Vandana Hari, founder of
oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Oil
prices slumped more than 2% last week on investor scepticism about the depth of supply cuts by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia,
together called OPEC+, and concern about sluggish global manufacturing
activity.
OPEC+ cuts
announced on Thursday were voluntary in nature, raising doubts about whether or
not producers would fully implement them. Investors were also unsure about how
the cuts would be measured.
Geopolitical
considerations were also front and centre of investors' minds as fighting resumed in Gaza. Three
commercial vessels came under attack in international
waters in the southern Red Sea, the U.S. military said on Sunday, as Yemen's
Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the
area.
More
Oil down on persistent uncertainty over OPEC+ supply cuts | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 increasing again, especially in Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, CDC says
December 1, 2023
Several key COVID-19 trends
that authorities track are now accelerating around the country, the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention announced Friday. It's the first major
nationwide uptick in the spread of the virus seen in months.
The largest increases are in
the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, the agency said in its weekly report updated Friday,
though virtually all regions of the country are now seeing accelerations.
Data reported by the agency
from emergency rooms and wastewater sampling
have tracked some of the steepest increases so far this season in the region
spanning Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Rates
of infections of
nursing home residents across this Midwestern region have also soared in recent
weeks, higher than in most other parts of the country, approaching levels not
seen since the peak of last winter's COVID-19 wave.
"Remember we had a late
summer wave of COVID. We came down from that. We are going back up again, which
we expect again, after a lot of travel and gathering at Thanksgiving," CDC
Director Dr. Mandy Cohen said Thursday at a House committee hearing.
Close to 2 million Americans are now living in counties deemed to have "high" levels of COVID-19 hospitalizations, where the CDC urges masking in public and other precautions to curb the threat posed by the virus.
Around 1 in 10 Americans are now in
communities with "medium" levels of hospitalizations, where the
agency counsels some additional precautions for at-risk Americans.
Cohen said the agency has also been
tracking other respiratory illnesses accelerating in recent weeks ahead of COVID-19's
rise, in line with previous fall and winter virus seasons.
Respiratory syncytial virus,
or RSV, is now "near peak" in many southern states that first saw
cases and hospitalizations rise in young children earlier this year.
In an updated report this week,
the CDC's disease forecasters said RSV hospitalizations were at levels worse
than pre-pandemic seasons, but likely on track to reach a "lower and later
peak" than last year.
Flu trends have also been
accelerating nationwide, the agency said, with more expected increases into
December. However, data from emergency
rooms suggest influenza has yet to eclipse COVID-19 levels overall.
More
COVID-19 increasing again, especially in Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, CDC says (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Scientists on the
brink of breakthrough in EV battery technology — how an ancient tool could
revolutionize clean energy
Sat, December 2,
2023 at 12:00 AM GMT
Salt is one of the latest ancient
tools to experience a revitalization in the modern era, with the well-known preservative a possible key to revolutionizing clean energy.
According to Innovation Origins, scientists at the Tokyo University of Science are close
to a commercial breakthrough for sodium-ion (Na-ion) batteries that would
improve their performance.
The team, led by Professor
Shinichi Komaba, is using a “hard” form of carbon electrodes to enhance the
Na-ion technology, with the denser structure allowing the battery to store 1.6
times more energy than previous iterations.
The salt-based battery uses a
transfer of energy similar to lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, operating “on the
movement of sodium ions between electrodes during charge and discharge cycles,”
and is equal in strength to some Li-ion batteries already on the market.
While scientists began developing
Na-ion batteries around the same time as
Li-ion ones, sodium batteries ultimately fell out of favor, in part because of
their reduced storage capacity.
The idea of them has been making
a comeback, though, because they don’t carry the risk of combustion, sodium is
widely available and cheap, and the harvesting process is better for the
environment, as Innovation Origins pointed out.
“It doesn’t use the expensive raw
materials. There’s no cobalt, there’s no copper, there’s no lithium, there’s no
graphite, which is really primarily controlled by China today,” James Quinn,
the CEO of sodium-ion battery-maker Faradion, told CNBC in May.
The Li-ion technology became
available for commercial use in 1991, according to the Clean Energy Institute, and today, most electric vehicles utilize lithium batteries.
EVs create less heat-trapping pollution than gas-powered cars over their lifetimes because
they don’t produce tailpipe pollution, but the expensive mining and
manufacturing process for lithium batteries releases toxic fumes, can contaminate water, and produces more carbon dioxide than the creation of gas-powered
vehicles.
Now that scientists have found a
way to increase sodium-ion battery storage rates, however, EVs could become
even more eco-friendly and affordable.
There are 30 facilities already
planned, being built, or making sodium-ion batteries. Most of the plants are in
China, per Innovation Origins, but the industry is expected to keep expanding.
December
3, 1154. Adrian IV elected Pope. The only Englishman to become pontiff,
Nicholas Breakspear was a member of the family which until recent years brewed
beer in Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire.
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