Baltic
Dry Index. 2094 22/12/23
Brent Crude
77.04
Spot Gold 2063 US 2 Year Yield 4.23 -0.03
“I want to share something with you, the three little sentences that will get you through 2024. Number one, ‘Cover for me.’ Number two, ‘Oh, good idea, boss!’ Number three, ‘It was like that when I got here.'”
With apologies to Homer Simpson.
In the stock casinos more bubbles, led for the most part in the USA, by seven technology stocks and a whole lot of AI hype repeating the internet bubble of 25 years ago? Remember “NASDAQ, the stock market for the next hundred years.”
But if Bidenomics is so good for the US economy and via it, the global economy, why did the world’s central banks buy up a record amount of gold in 2023?
It couldn’t be that they see a US banking crash coming in 2024, with the Biden Fed about to guarantee all US deposits, whatever the trillions dollar cost?
Just why are US banks still borrowing record billions from the Fed’s emergency bailout scheme, the Bank Term Funding Program that’s supposed to end in March? If it does, how will US banks buy back their pledged collateral?
When
Argentina’s new president said he was going to adopt the dollar as Argentina’s new
currency, I don’t think he had in mind that the Biden dollar should become the
new peso.
S&P 500 falls slightly Friday, but rides
9-week win streak to end 2023 with 24% gain: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, DEC 29 2023 4:42 PM EST
Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&P
500 closed out 2023 with a surprising gain of 24% as inflation slowed, the
economy remained strong and the Federal Reserve signaled an end to its
rate-hiking campaign.
The S&P
500 rose for nine straight weeks to
end the year, its best win streak since 2004. Big Tech stocks lifted the Nasdaq
Composite to its best year since 2020 on AI enthusiasm.
The broad index fell 0.28% to settle at
4,769.83, with a 24.2% gain for the year. The S&P 500 ends 2023 just short
of a new all-time high. At one point on Friday, it climbed within 9 points, or
less than 0.2%, from its record close of 4,796.56 attained in January 2022.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average lost 20.56
points, or 0.05%, to close at 37,689.54 on Friday. It finished the year with a
13.7% gain and notched a new record during 2023. The Nasdaq
Composite edged down 0.56% to
15,011.35 for the session, but rose 43.4% for its best year since 2020.
----- The
S&P 500 added 0.3% on the week. The Dow and Nasdaq gained 0.8% and 0.1% for
the week, respectively, to clinch their longest weekly winning streaks since
2019.
Stocks bounced back
this year after a rough 2022. The story for the better part of the year was the
excitement around artificial intelligence fueling big gains for the
“Magnificent 7” stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft. The enthusiasm bolstered the
indexes even as the average stock struggled amid rising interest rates and
fueled the outperformance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
But with the Federal Reserve signaling it is
likely done with rate hikes, and could even cut rates multiple
times next year, the 10-year Treasury yield dove from above 5% in late October
to less than 3.9% on Friday. As rates fell and labor data remained strong,
investors ended the year growing more confident in a possible “soft landing”
where the U.S. economy avoids a recession.
As a result, the market rally broadened out in
the fourth quarter, with the industrial-heavy Dow making a string of record
highs in December. The small-cap Russell
2000 rose more than 12% in December
and clinched its best month since November 2020. It also notched its best
quarter since the fourth quarter of 2020.
This expansion in market breadth will likely
continue into the new year, although a period of consolidation isn’t out of the
question as some of the high-fliers “recalibrate,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO
& CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments.
Wall Street will also keep a watchful eye as
more Fed speakers weigh in on the prospect of rate cuts ahead of January’s
meeting, Mahajan said, which could lead to some early volatility in the new
year.
“The risk with the Fed is that they will either
wait too long, or move too quickly,” Tengler said. “If they cut too soon, and
we do see inflation resurge, that’s going to be bad news for everybody.”
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Tech stocks just wrapped up one of their best
years in past two decades after 2022 slump
Tech stocks rebounded from a disastrous 2022 and
lifted the Nasdaq to one of its strongest years in the past two decades.
After last year’s 33% plunge,
the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished 2023 up 43%, its best year since 2020, which was
narrowly higher. The gain was also just shy of the index’s performance in 2009.
Those are the only two years with bigger gains dating back to 2003, when stocks
were coming out of the dot-com crash.
The Nasdaq is now just 6.5% below
its record high it reached in November 2021.
Across the industry, the big story this year was a
return to risk, driven by the Federal Reserve halting its
interest rate hikes and a more stable outlook on inflation. Companies also
benefited from the cost-cutting measures they put in place starting late last
year to focus on efficiency and bolstering profit margins.
“Once you have a Fed that’s backing
off, no mas, in terms of rate hikes, you can get back to the business of
pricing companies properly — how much money do they make, what kind of multiple
do you put on it,” Kevin Simpson, founder of Capital Wealth Planning, told
CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Tuesday. “It can continue into 2024.”
While the tech industry got a big boost from the
macro environment and the prospect of lower borrowing costs, the emergence of generative
artificial intelligence drove excitement in the sector and
pushed companies to invest in what’s viewed as the next big thing.
Nvidia was
the big winner in the AI rush. The chipmaker’s stock price soared 239% in 2023,
as large cloud vendors and heavily funded startups snapped up the company’s
graphics processing units (GPUs), which are needed to train and run advanced AI
models. In the first three quarters of 2023, Nvidia generated $17.5
billion in net income, up more than sixfold from the prior year. Revenue in the
latest quarter tripled.
More
Tech
stocks wrap up 2023 rally after last year's slump (cnbc.com)
Europe stocks end 2023 up 12.64% after
climbing on last trading day
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 29 2023 2:33
AM EST UPDATED FRI, DEC 29 2023 11:56 AM EST
LONDON — European stocks ended Friday’s session in
the green, marking a positive end to a solid year.
The regional Stoxx
600 index provisionally finished 2023
up 12.64% on the year. It follows a fall of 12.9% in 2022.
On Friday, the Stoxx ended the day provisionally
0.1% higher, with almost all sectors up amid thin trade. London markets closed
early, with the FTSE 100 in the
green as the FTSE 250 dipped.
Spanish pharmaceutical group Grifols was
the biggest stock mover, climbing around 8.4% after announcing it will sell a 20% stake in Shanghai
RAAS, a blood products firm, to China’s Haier for approximately $1.8 billion.
Germany’s DAX has
risen nearly 20% over 2023 despite the country’s gloomy
economic picture, while France’s CAC 40 and
the U.K.’s FTSE
100 have gained 16.4% and 3.64%, respectively.
More
Europe markets open to close: Stoxx 600 gains, S&P
500 chases high (cnbc.com)
U.S. crude oil sheds more than 10% for the
year in first annual decline since 2020
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 29 2023 11:19
AM EST UPDATED FRI, DEC 29 2023 2:55 PM EST
U.S. crude oil closed out the year more than 10%
lower as bearish sentiment has taken over due to worries that the market is
oversupplied from record production outside OPEC.
The West
Texas Intermediate contract for
February shed 12 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at $71.65 a barrel on Friday.
The Brent contract
for March lost 11 cents, or 0.14%, to settle at $77.04.
U.S. crude and the global benchmark booked the
first annual decline since 2020 despite ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle
East due to the devastating war in Gaza. WTI is down 10.73% for the year, and
Brent has lost 10.32%.
Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday on worries
that militant attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would disrupt global trade and
crude supplies. While fears of escalation in the Middle East have triggered
brief spikes in crude prices, traders are primarily focused on the supply and
demand balance.
Record U.S. production
The U.S. is producing crude at a record pace,
pumping an estimated 13.3 million barrels per day last week. Output is also at
a record in Brazil and Guyana. The historic production outside OPEC has
collided with an economic slowdown in major economies, above all China.
OPEC and its allies, meanwhile,
have promised to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first
quarter of 2024, but traders apparently have little confidence that the bloc’s
policy will bring the market into balance.
Oil production outside OPEC, above all in the
U.S., is expected to more than cover demand growth in 2024, according to
the International Energy Agency. Global oil demand growth is expect to fall by half to 1.1
million barrels per day next year, while output outside OPEC is expected grow
by 1.2 mbd.
Profound impact on oil
The shift in crude supply from the Middle East to
the U.S. and other Atlantic countries is “profoundly impacting the global oil
trade,” the IEA said in its December outlook.
The U.S. was responsible for two-thirds of the
growth in supply outside OPEC this year. This is challenging efforts by
producers in the Middle East to defend their market share and lift oil prices,
according to the IEA.
OPEC seems to have little room to maneuver, with
production cuts falling on deaf ears. Brazil has
agreed to ally itself with the bloc, but it is not clear what that means for
markets.
More
U.S. crude oil sheds more than 10% in first annual
decline since 2020 (cnbc.com)
China Dec factory
contraction deepens, more stimulus on the cards
By Liangping Gao and Kevin Yao December 31, 2023 3:33
AM GMT
BEIJING, Dec 31
(Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in
December and weakened more than expected, clouding the outlook for the
country's economic recovery and raising the case for fresh stimulus measures in
the new year.
The government
has in recent months introduced a series of policies to shore up a feeble
post-pandemic recovery, which is being held back by a severe property slump,
local government debt risks and soft global demand. But the world's
second-largest economy is still struggling to gain traction.
The official
purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 the
previous month, an official factory survey showed on Sunday, below the 50-mark
separating growth from contraction and weaker than a median forecast of 49.5 in
a Reuters poll.
"We must
step up policy support, otherwise the trend of slowing growth will
continue," said Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust. Nie expects the
central bank to cut interest rates and banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR)
in the coming weeks.
"Falling
prices have greatly affected companies' profits and further affected people's
employment and incomes. We may see a vicious cycle," he said.
China's central
bank said on Thursday it would step up policy adjustments to support the
economy and promote a rebound in prices, amid signs of rising deflationary
pressures.
Earlier
this month, top Chinese
leaders at a key meeting to chart the
economic course for 2024 pledged to take more steps to support the recovery
next year.
Five of China's
largest state banks lowered interest rates on some deposits on Dec. 22, the
third round of such cuts this year, which could help the central bank move
toward easing monetary policy.
The government,
which in October unveiled plans to issue 1 trillion yuan ($140.89 billion) in
sovereign bonds to fund investment projects, is likely to focus on more fiscal
steps to support growth next year, analysts said.
WEAK DEMAND
China's consumer
prices fell the fastest in three years in
November while factory-gate deflation deepened, weighed by weak domestic
demand.
"The current
external environment is increasingly complex, severe, and uncertain," the
statistical bureau said.
"Some
companies in the survey reported that reduced overseas orders and insufficient
domestic effective demand are the main difficulties faced by the
companies."
The new orders
sub-index was at 48.7, contracting for the third month, according to the PMI
survey released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Weak external
demand also remained a major drag on factory activity, with new export orders
index registering 45.8 in December, contracting for the ninth straight month.
More
China Dec factory contraction deepens, more stimulus
on the cards | Reuters
“English? Who
needs that? I’m never going to England.”
Justin Trudeau Homer Simpson.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Brexit Britain to soar past Germany as Eurozone faces
recession risk
December 30, 2023
The United
Kingdom has been predicted to outpace Germany as the Eurozone faces the risk of
a deeper recession due to higher interest rates.
Britain and
Germany shrank in the three months to September, with Europe’s two largest
economies potentially being plunged into a further fiscal slump.
However,
analysts at UBS expect the UK will bounce back within a year.
Germany looks
poised to continue to struggle as Berlin grapples with a budget crisis.
Olaf Scholz is
facing further pressure after Germany’s top court ruled the Government broke
the law by using Covid cash to fund net zero spending.
House prices
in Germany recently suffered double-digit declines amid the nation's economic
turmoil.
Berlin’s
dependence on Moscow-produced gas has also had an impact.
Economists at
UBS predict German growth of just 0.5 per cent next year, with 0.8 per cent
anticipated in 2025.
In contrast,
the UK will grow by 0.6 per cent in 2024 and witness 1.5 per cent growth the
year after.
UBS expects the UK to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2026 and the Eurozone by
1.1 per cent, while Germany is the laggard on 0.9 per cent.
Traders have been backing the UK’s economic revival as many anticipate
the Bank of England could cut interest rates from 5.25 per cent to 3.5 per cent
by the end of the next year.
A change in economic fortune could assist Rishi Sunak as the Prime
Minister is expected to call an election at some point in 2024.
Falling inflation would likely provide the Treasury with more space to
cut taxes.
Reinhard
Cluse, economist at UBS, said: “Manufacturing was especially weak, with new
orders dragged down by lower Chinese demand.
“In addition,
the energy crisis continued to leave its mark as production in energy-intensive
industries was much weaker than in other sectors, even as energy prices
declined.”
More
Brexit Britain to soar past Germany as Eurozone faces
recession risk (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID Mask
Mandates Return Across US Hospitals
Masks
are back in some locations in New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Washington
state.
12/28/2023 Updated: 12/28/2023
Hospitals in
places across the United States have reimplemented mask mandates because of
what officials say is an uptick in COVID-19 and other respiratory infections.
For example,
the NYC Health + Hospitals—officially the New York City Health and Hospitals
Corporation that operates public hospitals and clinics in New York
City—announced that mask mandates will be reimplemented at its hospitals.
“Due to an uptick in respiratory illnesses
like COVID-19, flu & RSV in our communities & our hospital, we must
return to mandatory masking. Please wear a mask when you visit us!” the
hospital operator wrote on X, formerly known
as Twitter, earlier this week.
The post
showed a photo of staff members wearing masks.
A separate NYC Health + Hospitals post states that “mandatory masking” was
reinstated at its Jacobi facility in the Bronx because of “the prevalence of
COVID-19 in our communities.”
While the hospital and other medical
facilities have cited recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) data showing an increase in COVID-19 cases, historical data from
the same agency show that the increase has been relatively small compared to
previous years. As of Dec. 16, the agency data show that more than 25,000
people are currently hospitalized for COVID-19 across the United States,
whereas on Dec. 16, 2022, more than 36,000 were hospitalized.
Other Mask
Mandates
UMass Memorial Medical Center in
Worcester, Massachusetts, confirmed to local media
that it would issue a monthlong mask requirement for its staff, effective on
Jan. 2. Patients and visitors won’t be mandated to wear face coverings,
however.
“These changes are expected to remain in
effect for approximately one month, at which time they will be reevaluated
based on current trends,“ a spokesperson for the hospital said in the
statement. ”The health and wellbeing of our patients, visitors, and employees
is our top priority.”
More
COVID Mask Mandates Return Across US Hospitals | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
NASA completes record sustained burn of revolutionary
rocket engine
David Szondy December 28, 2023
NASA has pushed forward a
revolutionary new rocket technology at its Marshall Space Flight Center in
Huntsville, Alabama. Engineers at the facility fired the 3D-printed Rotating
Detonation Rocket Engine (RDRE) for a record 251 seconds with 5,800 lb (2,631
kg) of thrust.
For over six
decades, NASA has relied on chemical rockets to launch its vehicles into space.
It works, but chemical rockets suffer from the fact that they've been operating
in the neighborhood of their theoretical limit since 1942. This isn't helped by
the fact that most liquid rockets are essentially unchanged in their basic
design since the days of the German V2s.
To squeeze a bit
more performance out of rocket engines, NASA is looking at a fundamentally
different design with the RDRE.
Instead of a
combustion chamber where fuel and oxygen are fed in to burn at subsonic speed,
in an RDRE these are introduced into a gap between two coaxial cylinders. When
this mixture is ignited, they form a closely coupled reaction and shock wave.
That wave travels inside the gap at supersonic speed, generating more heat and
pressure.
If this burn can be
sustained, it can produce a rocket thrust that is much more efficient. In fact,
NASA says that the latest test firing was powerful enough and long enough that
it could meet the requirements for a lander touchdown or deep space burn required
for a mission to the Moon or Mars.
However, NASA
stresses that the technology is far from mature and that test firings like this
one are needed to scale up the combustor for different thrust classes. If this
is successful, RDREs could find work in landers, upper stage boosters, and
retropropulsion to land large payloads on the surface of Mars.
"The RDRE
enables a huge leap in design efficiency," said Marshall combustion
devices engineer Thomas Teasley. "It demonstrates we are closer to making
lightweight propulsion systems that will allow us to send more mass and payload
further into deep space, a critical component to NASA’s Moon to Mars
vision."
The video
below recaps the test firing
NASA completes record sustained burn of revolutionary
rocket engine (newatlas.com)
Have a great New Year’s Day break. On to what looks
likely to be an interesting year. Some 40 countries are holding elections in
2024, according to the BBC. With the big one Biden v Trump?
21st century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
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