Baltic
Dry Index. 2848 -295 Brent Crude 74.57
Spot Gold 2027 US 2 Year Yield 4.60 +0.03
The attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise military strike by the Imperial Japanese Navy Air Service upon the United States against the U.S.
Naval base at Pearl Harbor in Honolulu, Hawaii, just before 8:00 a.m.
(local time) on Sunday, December 7, 1941. The United States was a neutral country at the time; the attack led the U.S. to formally
enter World War II on the side of the Allies the following day. The Japanese military leadership referred to the attack as
the Hawaii Operation and Operation AI, and as Operation Z during
its planning.
Attack on Pearl Harbor - Wikipedia
While Bitcoin bubbles on, back in the real world crude oil prices are crashing suggesting that the global economy is rolling over. Unsurprisingly, that’s not good for most stocks, especially when you can get 5.38 percent hiding out in the safety of 6 month US T. Bills.
Why take on risk over the coming year-end,
when a Great Storm may be just about to hit.?
Asia markets fall
as investors assess trade data from China and Australia; oil slumps
UPDATED THU, DEC 7 2023 12:42 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific markets slumped across the board,
mirroring moves on Wall Street as investors assessed trade data from China and
Australia.
China’s November trade numbers
surprised expectations, with exports climbing 0.5% and imports falling 0.6%
year on year. Economists polled by Reuters expected a 1.1% year-on-year drop in
exports and a 3.3% climb in imports.
The trade surplus for the world’s
second-largest economy also widened to $68.39 billion, beating forecasts of $58
billion.
Separately, prices of oil have
hit their lowest level since June, with the West Texas
Intermediate contract
for January down $2.94, or 4.07%, to settle at $69.38 a barrel.
The Brent contract for
February declined
$2.90, or 3.76%, to settle at $74.30 a barrel.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 narrowed
losses, inching down 0.07% and ending at 7,173.3 after the country’s trade
surplus in October widened to 7.13 billion Australian dollars, but missed
Reuters poll estimates of AU$7.5 billion.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell
1.72% after leading gains in Asia on Wednesday, while the Topix slid 1.12%.
South Korea’s Kospi shed
0.13% and the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 0.74%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped
1.16%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 reversed losses and gained 0.14%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
retreated on Wednesday as investors assessed data indicating falling inflation
while awaiting jobs report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
0.19%, while the S&P 500 shed
0.39% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.58%.
It was the third losing day for
the 30-stock Dow and the S&P 500 — the first since October for both
indexes.
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates, Australia, China trade, oil prices (cnbc.com)
European markets set to reverse gains as
sentiment changes
UPDATED THU, DEC 7 2023 12:37 AM
EST
European markets are heading for a lower open
Thursday, reversing gains seen in the previous trading session.
Regional markets had closed
higher Wednesday, rebounding from mixed trade seen earlier in the week.
Investors in the region will be
keeping an eye out for revised third-quarter gross domestic product data for
the euro zone that’s due Thursday, as well as third-quarter employment figures
for the single currency area. German industrial output for October is also due.
U.S.
stock futures hovered around the flatline overnight after a
lackluster trading session Wednesday. Private payrolls data released yesterday
in the U.S. showed that employers added 103,000 positions in November, coming
in below expectations.
On Thursday, weekly jobless
claims are due before the opening bell. November nonfarm payrolls, along with
wage data and the unemployment rate, will be out on Friday.
Asia-Pacific markets slumped across the
board overnight, mirroring moves on Wall Street as investors assessed trade
data from China and Australia.
European markets live updates: stocks, news,
data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Morning Bid: Oil's
slide bolsters rate-cut wagers
December 7, 2023 5:33
AM GMT
A look at the day
ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Oil
prices defied worries over war in the
Middle East and OPEC+ production cuts with a slump to five-month lows
overnight, and are headed for their steepest annual drop since the lockdown
year of 2020.
Brent crude
futures have fallen more than 20% from highs in late September and were sold
down to their cheapest since late June, after a bigger-than-expected jump in
U.S. gasoline inventories indicated dull demand over the Thanksgiving holiday.
That
overshadowed Wednesday's meeting between Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who
discussed further cooperation on prices.
For the year,
Brent is down more than 13% and, at $74.64 a barrel, is settling into a range.
That is good news for inflation, for bonds, and for the chances of interest
rate cuts in 2024.
Treasury yields
crept up slightly in Asia trade on Thursday, although that isn't unusual
following a strong rally in bonds in New York. Ten year yields hit three-month
lows overnight before rising 2 basis points in Asia to 4.14%.
Second-tier data on the European and U.S. calendars later in
the day is headlined by German industrial figures and U.S. weekly jobs claims,
with U.S. non-farm payrolls the main event on Friday.
On Wednesday,
data showed that U.S. labour costs fell last quarter, that private hiring had
stabilised, and that pay increases slowed down - adding to evidence that the
economy is slowing.
In sum, it makes
for a benign backdrop to central bank meetings in Europe, the U.S. and Japan in
the coming weeks.
In
Asia on Thursday, Chinese trade data showed
exports grew for the first time in six months in November, although imports
unexpectedly shrank.
Chinese
stocks plumbed new lows, with Moody's downgrade of China's sovereign
debt outlook earlier this week putting additional pressure on Chinese assets.
The
blue-chip CSI300 index (.CSI300) hit its weakest
since early 2019 and the Hang Seng (.HIS) - which is down almost
9% in just 10 trading days - fell to a 13-month low.
More
Morning
Bid: Oil's slide bolsters rate-cut wagers | Reuters
In other news, as Bitcoin bubbles towards
$50,000, JP Morgan’s CEO urges the government to shut cryptocurrency down.
Jamie Dimon
lashes out against crypto: ‘If I was the government, I’d close it down’
JPMorgan
Chase CEO
Jamie Dimon lashed out at bitcoin and its peers, suggesting in remarks
Wednesday on Capitol Hill that cryptocurrencies should be banned.
“I’ve always been deeply opposed to
crypto, bitcoin, etc.,” the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said under
questioning from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., during a Senate Banking
Committee hearing. “The only true use case for it is criminals, drug
traffickers … money laundering, tax avoidance.”
“If I was the government, I’d close it down,” he added.
The remarks are the latest broadside from Dimon against
cryptocurrencies, though his bank is heavily involved in
blockchain, the enabling technology for the $1.6 trillion industry.
In previous statements, Dimon has
called bitcoin “a
hyped-up fraud,” a comment he later walked back. He had also likened
it to a “pet
rock.”
Under further questioning from
Warren, Dimon and several other CEOs of large banks brought before the
committee as part of a routine hearing on the industry, agreed that crypto
companies should face the same anti-money-laundering regulations as the major
financial institutions.
The topic marked a rare note of
unity between the banking leaders and Warren, usually a harsh critic of the
industry.
“When it comes to banking policy, I am not usually holding hands with the
CEOs of multibillion-dollar banks, but this is a matter of national security.
Terrorists, drug traffickers and rogue nations should be barred from using
crypto for their dangerous activities. It is time for Congress to act,” Warren
said.
Jamie
Dimon lashes out on crypto: 'If I was the government, I'd close it down'
(cnbc.com)
Bitcoin could hit
$150,000 by 2025, predicts Bernstein
The price of bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by
2025, Bernstein said Tuesday in a note citing optimism about a bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani
said the firm expects the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a
bitcoin ETF by the first quarter of 2024.
The bullish estimate is about five times the current price of around
$34,000 and more than double bitcoin’s all-time high of more than $67,000 set
in November 2021.
Bernstein also expects that ETF
approval would shift up to 10% of bitcoin’s circulating supply toward ETFs. The
approval would allow conventional investors to get bitcoin exposure directly
from their investment portfolios. The only similar product is Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust,
or GBTC, which presently holds around 3% of outstanding bitcoin, according to
the note.
“You may not like Bitcoin as much
as we do, but a dispassionate view of Bitcoin as a commodity, suggests a turn
of the cycle,” Chhugani wrote. “A good idea is only as good as its timing - SEC
approved ETFs by world’s top asset managers (BlackRock, Fidelity et al), seems
imminent.”
More
Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2025, predicts Bernstein (cnbc.com)
Finally, how to kill off vehicles that nobody
buys without a massive government subsidy. Put tariffs on them. Only in
Brussels, as they say. EVs were “the future” once, but now?
Why the EU now plans to delay post-Brexit tariffs on
electric vehicles
All
you need to know about the European Commission’s new proposal to delay its 10% charge
on EVs
Wed 6 Dec 2023 05.00 GMT
The European Commission is likely to propose a three-year delay on post-Brexit tariffs on electric cars, after months of lobbying by industry and the UK
government.
Carmakers were fearful that exports between the UK and EU
– in both directions – would be hit by 10% tariffs in the new year because of
“rules of origin” aiming to reduce China’s dominance of the global battery
industry.
A delay to the tariffs, if confirmed, would remove one
dark cloud hanging over European carmakers. An official announcement is
possible as soon Wednesday, pending approval by the European Commission’s
cabinet.
The tariffs were planned as early as 2020. So why are
they still an issue three years later?
Why
are tariffs an issue?
It stems from Brexit. The UK and
the EU agreed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020,
setting out the post-Brexit trading relationship. Both sides used the deal to
try to spur the creation of a European electric car battery industry.
The deal gave carmakers until 1 January 2024 to source batteries from within the UK or EU, or
else face 10% tariffs on exports of electric cars either way across the
Channel.
Batteries are the most expensive component of electric
cars, and battery manufacturing is dominated by South Korea, Japan and – most
of all – China. The deadline was meant to push carmakers into building
batteries in the UK or Europe. Yet approaching the January deadline, carmakers are still dependent on Asian batteries and materials, meaning most UK-EU car exports would become more
expensive. Perversely, petrol and diesel cars would be unaffected.
What
went wrong?
The coronavirus pandemic and
rising interest rates have got in the way. A huge wave of battery factories in
Europe, including two in the UK, is on its way, but will not
be ready in time.
The carmakers have been
arguing in public that they have no way of meeting the deadline.
What
is at stake if the deadline is not delayed?
Tariffs would be unavoidable if the deadline is not
extended. Two-thirds of the UK car industry’s output goes to the EU, while the
UK has long been one of the most lucrative markets for Germany’s premium
carmakers, in particular.
A chorus of carmakers from the UK and EU has said the
deadline must be delayed, arguing it would slow the uptake of electric cars by
making them more expensive. They include Toyota, Ford and Jaguar Land Rover, all of which have factories in Britain, plus BMW and
Volkswagen, which own Rolls-Royce and Bentley in the UK.
Manufacturer Stellantis,
which employs more than 5,000 people in the UK, including 1,000 at its Vauxhall
electric van factory in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, and 1,200 at its Luton plant,
has said the tariffs would make production in the UK not viable.
More
Driverless cars were the future but now the truth is
out: they’re on the road to nowhere
December 6, 2023
Developing driverless cars has been AI’s
greatest test. Today we can say it has failed miserably, despite the
expenditure of tens of billions of dollars in attempts to produce a viable
commercial vehicle. Moreover, the recent withdrawal from the market of a
leading provider of robotaxis in the US, coupled with the introduction of strict legislation in the UK, suggests that the developers’ hopes of
monetising the concept are even more remote than before. The very future of the
idea hangs in the balance.
----Right from the start, the hype far
outpaced the technological advances. In 2010, at the Shanghai Expo, General
Motors had produced a video showing a driverless car taking a pregnant woman to
hospital at breakneck speed and, as the commentary assured the viewers, safely.
It was precisely the promise of greater safety, cutting the terrible worldwide
annual roads death toll of 1.25m, that the sponsors of driverless vehicles
dangled in front of the public.
And that is now proving their
undoing. First to go was Uber after an accident in which one of its
self-driving cars killed Elaine Herzberg in Phoenix, Arizona. The car was in autonomous mode, and its “operator” was
accused of watching a TV show, meaning they did not notice when the car hit
Herzberg, who had confused its computers by stepping on to the highway pushing
a bike carrying bags on its handlebars. Fatally, the computer could not
interpret this confusing array of objects.
Until then, Uber’s business
model had been predicated on the idea that within a few years it would dispense
with drivers and provide a fleet of robotaxis. That plan died with Herzberg,
and Uber soon pulled out of all its driverless taxi trials.
Now Cruise, the company
bought by General Motors to spearhead its development of autonomous vehicles,
is retreating almost as rapidly. The trigger was also an accident, which by
chance proved not to be fatal but caused serious injuries. In October, a woman
crossing a road in San Francisco was hit by a human-driven car and knocked into the path of a Cruise robotaxi. Instead of stopping, the robotaxi drove over the
pedestrian because it had been programmed to pull over to the right when
confronted with an unknown situation. She survived but will clearly be in line
for massive compensation.
Since then
Cruise has been in full damage-limitation mode. After initially holding back
details of what happened, it soon withdrew its robotaxis in all US cities
and its CEO quit. It was revealed that vehicles were not
even driverless, since the cars had been remotely controlled with interventions by operators about every four or five miles.
There are now mass redundancies and the future of the development is uncertain.
More
Driverless cars were the future but now the truth is
out: they’re on the road to nowhere (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German industrial
orders fall unexpectedly in October
December 6, 2023 8:44 AM GMT
BERLIN, Dec 6 (Reuters) - German industrial
orders fell unexpectedly in October, declining by 3.7% on the previous month on
a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said on
Wednesday.
A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed
to a rise of 0.2%, following a revised 0.7% increase in September.
Excluding large-scale orders,
manufacturers saw a 0.7% rise in new orders in October, according to the data.
"So far, many companies have
compensated for the lower order intake by working off their order
backlogs," said Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen.
"In the long term, however, they
will not be able to avoid reducing their production, which suggests that the
German economy will continue to shrink in the winter months," he added.
The drop in incoming orders over the
August-to-October period, a less volatile comparison, was even sharper at 4.6%
compared with the prior three-month period.
The
statistics office publishes more economic data on
its website.
German industrial orders fall unexpectedly in October
| Reuters
Inflation, weak demand and falling employment weigh on
the eurozone
Published on 05/12/2023 - 15:50
The eurozone economy
continued its decline for a sixth consecutive month. Euronews Business looks at
why and breaks down the latest figures.
The euro area economy, also known as the eurozone, declined for a sixth
consecutive month in November, according to recent data, marking a continued
contraction through the midpoint of the fourth quarter.
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, a combined measure of
manufacturing and services sectors, persisted below the 50.0 threshold for
November, indicating a continual reduction in private sector output levels
across the eurozone.
November's PMI came in at 47.6 and showcased a slight improvement from
October's low of 46.5 for the first time in 35 months. However, despite this
marginal uptick, it remains a significant signal of economic decline within the
region.
“The service sector maintained its downward slide in November. The
modest improvement of the activity index does not leave much room for optimism
regarding a swift recovery in the immediate future,” Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia,
chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said.
Ongoing economic challenges in the
eurozone
Several key indicators
have highlighted the ongoing economic challenges. Employment declined for the
first time since January 2021, demonstrating the impact of weakening demand
conditions on the labour market. This decline primarily affected manufacturing,
while staffing in the service sector continued to expand.
Major eurozone economies
witnessed a contraction in business activity with France, closely followed by
Germany and Italy, experiencing declines. Moreover, Spain's private sector
shrank for the first time since August. Only Ireland saw an expansion in output
among eurozone regions.
Persistent weak demand has
forced companies to delve further into their backlogs, resulting in a
pronounced decline in outstanding orders for an eighth consecutive month.
The economic landscape was
also impacted by intensifying inflationary pressures with input prices rising
sharply, particularly in the service sector, while manufacturers experienced a
decrease in expenses.
The HCOB Eurozone Services
PMI Business Activity Index, came in at 48.7 for November, continuing to signal
a decline in the service sector's activity, persisting below the growth
threshold.
Inflation, weak demand and falling employment weigh on the eurozone | Euronews
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Mystery
Covid-like China virus could actually be deadly 1800s 'walking' illness
A
mystery Covid-like respiratory illness that has been sweeping through China and
appears to be only affecting children, could be a forgotten disease from the
19th century
09:01,
6 Dec 2023 UPDATED11:40, 6 DEC 2023
A mystery respiratory illness that is sweeping through
parts of China and has been likened to Covid could be a feared "walking" disease, scientists fear.
The strange unidentified virus has been causing chaos in
China for weeks, with the world on high alert over fears a new pandemic could
be on the way. Although it so far only seems to impact children, it saw
officials in neighbouring countries such as India, who are wary of another
virus spreading through their population following the outbreak of the
coronavirus in 2019, readying themselves for action.
And now scientists in Indonesia are gearing up their laboratory network to test for symptoms of mycoplasma pneumonia – first detected in 1898 - and which came from animals. Although it has not been confirmed exactly what the mystery disease is, it was first spotted at the end of the 19th century as a version of cattle pneumonia.
It was later found in chickens in 1944 and then thought to have transferred to humans when it was dubbed “walking pneumonia”, as it was considered to be a type of pneumonia humans could get but still continue about their day, reported the Daily Star.
According to the Jakarta Post, the country's Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said that testing for the virus is about to get underway. He told an audience that “this was done in response to the increasing cases of pneumonia due to mycoplasma bacterial infection in China.”
The current virus chaos has seen Beijing hospitals overrun after a massive increase in hospitalisations, and it has
now been detected in Europe for the first time, with medical officials in both
Denmark and the Netherlands confirming that the virus has taken hold there,
with the latter confirming that the number of children – whom it mainly impacts
– aged between five and 14 to get it has risen to 130 per 100,000 in just one
week.
Mystery Covid-like China virus could actually be deadly 1800s 'walking' illness - Mirror Online
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Well, if they say so, but I’m
sceptical that it will be cost effective.
Double-action solar tower promises clean energy all
day and night
Loz Blain December 05, 2023
Researchers in Jordan and Qatar have come up with a
remarkable design for a "twin technology solar system" (TTSS) capable
of generating clean energy 24/7. This double-action design promises more than
twice as much energy as a standard solar updraft tower.
As its name suggests, the TTSS combines two tower-style
technologies into a single design: a solar updraft tower and a cooling
downdraft tower. These are integrated into a single tower, with the updraft
tower coming up through the middle.
A solar
updraft system works by heating up the air at ground level, then using
the fact that hot air rises to funnel that air up a tall tower with turbines in
it. The air is heated under a large roof covering a vast collection area, made
from a greenhouse-type material designed to trap as much heat as possible.
These
have been built at experimental scale, but not yet at a commercial scale, since
they're typically very large, tall structures to ensure a good temperature
differential. Thus, capital costs are high and they're viewed as risky.
A cooling downdraft tower, on the other hand, forces air downwards to
turn another turbine. In this design, that's accomplished by spraying a fine
mist of water into the ambient air at the top of the tower, making it both
cooler and heavier and sending it downward.
The TTSS design places an updraft tower in the middle, and surrounds it
with 10 downdraft towers running around the outside, such that it can operate
in both updraft and downdraft modes simultaneously.
The research team, from Jordan's Al Hussein Technical University and
Qatar University, modeled a TTSS tower some 200 m (656 ft) tall and 13.6 m (45
ft) in diameter, with a 250-m (820-ft) diameter collector underneath it. The
inner cooling tower's diameter was 10 m (33 ft), leaving a 1.8-m (5.9-ft) gap
all the way around. This gap was partitioned into 10 separate downdraft towers,
with water misting systems at the top and turbines at the bottom. The location
chosen was near Riyadh City – hot, dry desert areas are ideal for these
designs.
In simulation testing using local weather data, the team estimated that
such a system would generate a total of around 753 megawatt-hours of energy
annually, with the external downdraft towers running around the clock to
deliver about 400 megawatt-hours, and the updraft tower working more
efficiently under the hot sun to contribute around 350 MWh.
These figures, according to the research team, were 2.14 times as much
as similar updraft-only designs – which makes sense given the updraft/downdraft
splits above. They could also go some way toward addressing the offset between
energy supply and demand that you can get with most solar projects.
The team didn't attempt to place an LCoE (levelized cost of electricity)
on it at this point, or draw any sort of cost comparison to, say, a solar
photovoltaic array plus battery energy storage. And it noted that in the areas
where the TTSS system would be most effective – hot, dry desert cities – it
probably won't be easy to get hold of enough water to run the downdraft system.
Still, an interesting idea, and a demonstration of the fact that there
are many, many ways to drive turbines to make electricity.
Double-action solar tower promises clean energy all
day and night (newatlas.com)
The Great storm of 1703 was a destructive extratropical
cyclone that struck
central and southern England on 26 November 1703 [O. S. December 7, 1703
Gregorian calendar, adopted by GB in 1750.]
High winds caused 2,000 chimney stacks to collapse in London
and damaged the New Forest, which lost 4,000 oaks. Ships were blown
hundreds of miles off-course, and over 1,000 sea men died on the Goodwin Sands alone. News bulletins of casualties
and damage were sold all over England – a novelty at that time. The Church of England declared that the storm was God's
vengeance for the sins of the nation. Daniel Defoe thought it was a divine punishment
for poor performance against Catholic armies in the War of the Spanish Succession.
No comments:
Post a Comment