Baltic
Dry Index. 2483 -12 Brent Crude 76.42
Spot Gold 1998 US 2 Year Yield 4.71 +0.13
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Not
much to add today to the articles below. Few in the global stock casinos expect
this week’s busy central bank meetings to upset the year-end Santa Claus
rallies.
No one
expects either war to end, nor impact stock and commodity markets.
In
inflation wracked, downwardly mobile Argentina, a new broom economic approach
is about to be tried by the new president, but doubts remain if he can get the
Congress to pass his proposed changes.
Asian stocks ease,
rate cut hopes to be tested in week of central bank meetings
By Wayne Cole
December 11, 2023 2:02 AM
GMT
SYDNEY, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Asian shares
drifted lower on Monday ahead of a week packed with a quintet of central bank
meetings and data on U.S. inflation that could make or break market hopes for
an early and rapid fire round of rate cuts next year.
An upbeat payrolls report
has already seen investors scale back expectations for a March cut by the
Federal Reserve, though May remains priced at a 76% chance.
The Fed is
considered certain to hold rates at 5.25-5.50% this week, putting the focus on
the so-called dot plots for rates and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.
The consumer price report for November
on Tuesday will also influence the outlook with analysts forecasting an
unchanged headline rate and a 0.3% rise in the core.
"We look for another Fed-friendly
CPI report but, barring surprises, anticipate the policy statement to signal
that economic conditions have not changed enough for officials to drop their
tightening bias just yet," said John Briggs, global head of strategy at
NatWest Markets.
"We think Powell will leave the
option of a possible hike on the table, but the hurdle seems quite high for the
Fed to follow through," he added. "We also expect the ECB to cut
early while the BoE will continue to push-back against market pricing of cuts
in the first half of 2024."
The European Central Bank, Bank of
England, Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank all meet on Thursday, with
Norway the only one considered a possible hiker. There is also a risk the SNB
may toy with renewed intervention to weaken the franc.
With so much riding
on the outcomes, investors were understandably cautious and MSCI's broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased
0.7%.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) bounced
1.6% after shedding 3.4% last week amid speculation of an end to super-easy
monetary policy.
Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) slipped
0.6% after data showed consumer prices
fell 0.5% in November, the sharpest drop since late 2020.
BONDS FOR SALE
EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures
were little changed. S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq futures edged
down 0.2%.
The Treasury market faces a test of
its own in the shape of $108 billion in new supply of three-year, 10-year and
30-year paper. Yields on 10-year notes were steady at 4.24% having risen on
Friday in the wake of the jobs report, though they still ended flat on the
week.
More
Asian
stocks ease, rate cut hopes to be tested in week of central bank meetings |
Reuters
China stocks
slide after data shows increasing deflationary pressures amid weak demand
UPDATED SUN, DEC 10 2023 9:11 PM EST
China’s stocks slid Monday after data showed
persistent deflationary pressures as the country’s economy suffers from weak
domestic demand.
In contrast, Japan’s stocks
jumped on growing bets that its central bank might not hike interest rates next
week.
November inflation numbers from
China showed a faster-than-expected decline in consumer prices.
The consumer price index fell
0.5% year-on-year, more than the 0.1% drop expected by economists polled by
Reuters and the fastest slide since November 2020.
The producer price index fell 3%
year-on-year, compared with October’s 2.6% drop and expectations of a 2.8%
decline. It also marked the 14th straight month of PPI decline and the quickest
since August.
China’s CSI 300 index opened
1.28% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index shed 0.9% at open. Both indexes lagged the rest of
the Asia-Pacific region.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 popped
1.65%, while the broad based Topix saw a smaller gain of 1.35%.
Investors were hopeful that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates at
its monetary policy meeting next week.
Focus for this week will be on
the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary
policy decision, where it is largely expected to hold its policy
rate steady at the range of 5.25% and 5.5%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 started
Monday up 0.21%, on pace for a three-month high.
South Korea’s Kospi struggled
for direction, was last up 0.06% and the small cap Kosdaq was up 0.92%.
On Friday, all three major U.S. indexes rose, with
the S&P 500 climbing
to hit a new high for the year after the November jobs report and University of
Michigan consumer survey data signaled a resilient economy and cooling
inflation, fueling hopes for a so-called soft-landing scenario.
The S&P 500 added
0.41%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose
0.45%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained
or 0.36%.
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates, China consumer prices fall further in November (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are slightly higher ahead of final
Fed meeting of 2023: Live updates
UPDATED SUN, DEC 10 2023 7:02 PM EST
U.S. stock futures were slightly higher on
Sunday night as investors await this week’s final Federal Reserve meeting of
2023 for any signals on when central bankers will begin to cut interest rates.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 22 points, or 0.06%. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100
futures both advanced less than 0.1%.
This year’s boom in equities is
widely expected to continue, with investors becoming increasingly optimistic
about further gains after noticing recent diversification within the rally.
Gains from the Magnificent 7 group
of tech stocks have slowed in comparison to this year’s laggards, such as
health care and small-cap companies.
The S&P 500 and
the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both
closed Friday with a six-week winning streak, gaining 0.2% and 0.7%,
respectively. The Dow,
meanwhile, was flat for the week.
Sentiment has also been boosted
by the central bank’s efforts to bring down inflation, which have been more
successful than many Fed officials and investors had anticipated. Consumer fears
over inflation plunged in December while consumer optimism
jumped, according to the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment
survey released on Friday.
During the Fed’s policy meeting
on Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain the key fed funds
rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range, where it’s been since July. Powell is also
expected to reiterate his commitment to lowering inflation in his press
conference on Wednesday. Already, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool is indicating that markets
are pricing in a 45% likelihood in March that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25
percentage points
“Investors should hope that we
stay higher, where we are now, for longer, and the Fed could just pause,
snooze, for some time as the market adjusts to the higher rates we’ve had for
the last year and a half or so,” Ken Mahoney, chief executive officer at
Mahoney Asset Management, told CNBC
earlier this week.
Investors are also looking ahead
to key inflation data, which could impact market movements and rate-cut
decisions made by the Fed. The November consumer price index is due out on
Tuesday, while the producer price index is set for release on Wednesday.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In commodities news, with
weaker oil prices from a slowing global economy, it's finally time to start
restocking the drained US strategic oil reserve.
Oil extends gains on
US strategic reserve purchases
By Mohi Narayan and Florence Tan December 11, 2023 4:20
AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Oil
prices rose on Monday, extending gains for a second session as U.S. efforts to
replenish strategic reserves provided some support, although concerns of crude
oversupply and softer fuel demand growth next year persisted.
Brent crude futures rose 0.6%, or 48
cents, to $76.32 a barrel by 0406 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
futures were at $71.61 a barrel, up 0.5%, or 38 cents.
Both contracts jumped more than 2% on
Friday but fell for the seventh straight week, their longest streak of weekly
declines since 2018, on lingering oversupply concerns.
The recent price
weakness drew demand from the U.S., which has sought
up to 3 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve (SPR) for delivery in March 2024.
"We know the Biden Administration
is in the market looking to refill the SPR, which will provide support,"
IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, adding that prices were also being
supported by technical chart indicators.
Despite the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, having pledged
to cut 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of production in the first quarter,
investors remain sceptical supply will drop. Output growth in non-OPEC
countries is seen leading to excess supply next year.
RBC Capital Markets expects stock draws
of 700,000 bpd in the first half but only 140,000 bpd for the full year.
"Prices will remain volatile and
directionless until the market sees clear data points pertaining to the
voluntary output cuts," RBC analysts said in a note.
With cuts not implemented until next
month and country level production data to follow subsequent to January, it
will be a volatile two months before there is preliminary clarity on
quantifiable data on compliance, the analysts added.
The
latest consumer price index data from China, the world's top oil importer, showed
rising deflationary pressures as weak domestic demand cast doubt over the
country's economic recovery.
More
Oil
extends gains on US strategic reserve purchases | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
More
EV reality. Electricity for UK trains is more expensive. But the UK government
has pledged to have no diesel engine powered trains by 2040, some 2,900 diesel
engine powered trains need to be replaced for more expensive to run electric engines,
if they can be found at all.
Electric
trains are the future for green freight but costs are forcing firms back to
diesel
December
9, 2023
----Forty-tonne boxes from all over the
world are stacked high all around - emblazoned on the outside with shipping
name brands - Maersk, Evergreen, One - revealing nothing of what lies within.
"It could be anything you imagine,
but I know some of these contain cereal, expensive cars and even wine in giant
bladders. And this lot is on its way to the port of Felixstowe."
The man revealing the secrets is Tim
Shoveller, CEO of Freightliner UK, speaking at their Manchester terminal.
It's right beside the so-called
"Theatre of Dreams" - Manchester United's Old Trafford football ground.
Tim's dream is to get more stuff off
of trucks and onto trains.
"Rail freight takes about six
million HGVs off the road, and we want to triple that," he says.
The problem with
rail freight
Alongside reducing congestion for
drivers, rail haulage is much more climate-friendly - cutting carbon emissions by
around three quarters compared to road, and even more if the trains are
electric.
But here's the problem - electricity
is so expensive compared to diesel that operators are reaching for
fossil-fuelled locomotives.
In August this year, rail freight
operator DB Cargo UK announced the permanent retirement of its electric fleet
and even Tim had to temporarily sideline electric trains earlier this year.
He says: "We had to put diesel
back on because of the price of electricity. It was costing us over one
thousand pounds extra per train and was simply not viable."
He'd like to see a cap on electricity
prices for freight trains that stops them rising above diesel.
In Germany, such a policy exists, and
they carry double the proportion of goods by train: 20%.
We climb aboard an electric Class 90
and meet Duncan Allan, the driver.
"It's nice, comfortable, quiet,
and gets up to speed faster than diesel. It's the future," he says.
We ride in the cab as we weave our
way through central Manchester and on towards Crewe.
Only 9% of freight currently moves
this way in Britain - and our ageing infrastructure hinders growth - with
freight and passenger trains jostling for space.
According to Tim, the cancellation
of HS2 north of Stafford will make this much worse.
"It's a real problem for
freight, and our aspiration to triple freight," he says.
"The busiest part is between
Stafford and Crewe, so having HS2 only going that far [to Stafford], we'll
continue competing with passenger trains, and that limits the amount we can
run."
Never been a better
time to switch to rail
The government says it is not
planning to cap electricity costs for rail freight but points to grants offered
to seaports to incentivise shipping onwards with more rail and less road, which
it claims have reduced HGV journeys by one million in two years.
Rail Minister, Huw Merriman, also
says the government welcomes discussions on how to shift specific bottlenecks
and open up capacity.
"The long-term future for the
movement of freight needs to be by electrification and that's why the
government has used taxpayers' money to electrify 1,200 miles of track in the
last 12 years," he says.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
AstraZeneca vaccine linked with ‘spike’ in cases of rare disease that can paralyse victims
December 8, 2023
Scientists
have drawn a link between the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and a “spike” in cases of a
rare disease that can leave its victims paralysed.
Three
separate studies reported an increase in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) shortly after the roll
out of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
GBS is
a potentially deadly condition in which a person’s immune system attacks their
nerves and gradually paralyses victims from the feet upwards. While most
patients recover, it can be life-threatening or permanently debilitating.
Two of
the studies looked at rates of GBS in England and said there was an increase in
cases “attributable to” the AstraZeneca vaccine, or that there was a probable “causal
link”.
The Telegraph has spoken to several people who developed GBS after
receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine, and have become severely disabled as a
result.
Two of
the individuals have been awarded payments through the Government’s Vaccine
Damage Payment Scheme but the third has been refused compensation on the basis
that he is not “60 percent disabled” – the threshold for a pay-out.
On
Friday, one of the victims spoke of his “anger” that he had the AstraZeneca jab without knowing that it posed such a
risk.
Anthony
Shingler said: “It feels like the side effects were either missed or ignored.”
In one
of the studies, researchers studied NHS data and found that the rate of GBS was
lower than usual for most of the pandemic – but that it shot up to well above
normal levels in March and April 2021 – after the AstraZeneca vaccine roll-out had got under way.
More
than a quarter of people who developed GBS in England in the first 10
months of 2021 did so within six weeks of having the AstraZeneca vaccine,
according to the paper by scientists at University College London and
researchers at the UK’s medicines watchdog, the Medicines and Healthcare
products Regulatory Agency.
The
researchers stressed that the risk of GBS was “very small” in proportion to the
benefits that Covid vaccines offered. For every million doses of the jab that
were administered, there were less than six extra cases of GBS, according to
the study.
However, the
scale of the vaccination programme meant that by July 8 2021, there were
between 98 and 140 “excess” cases of GBS in England that researchers said could
be “attributable to” the AstraZeneca vaccine.
The authors of
the paper, titled Covid-19 vaccination and Guillain-Barre syndrome: analyses
using the National Immunoglobulin Database, compared the rate of GBS linked to
the AstraZeneca jab to the rate linked to the swine flu jab, which became a
huge controversy in America in the 1970s.
The US
government ended up having to halt the swine flu vaccination programme, when
less than a fifth of the population had been jabbed, after 500 Americans
developed GBS and 25 died of it.
More
AstraZeneca vaccine linked with ‘spike’ in cases of
rare disease that can paralyse victims (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Perovskite technology: Shining the spotlight
on the future of affordable solar power
"Solar power has disrupted the future
of renewable energy. As photovoltaic technology blazes a trail to cheaper,
cleaner electricity, the UK now has the potential to power 100 million LED bulbs at
once,"
writes Professor Joe Briscoe, Professor of Energy Materials and Devices.
December
8, 2023
That’s because solar cells, one of the first
methods of generating renewable energy to be utilised on a large scale, have
steadily become more efficient. Innovations in silicon technology, the
leading material in solar cell manufacturing, can now enable over 23% of solar energy to be converted into electricity. But with power demand rising fast, we’re reaching the
limits of power conversion efficiency with silicon.
So how do we keep upgrading solar power for the
future?
My team and I are investigating how innovative
manufacturing techniques are enabling the production of a new kind of solar
cells made from perovskite – a crystallized organic-inorganic hybrid
compound.
Our research is helping improve and optimize the
production and operation of perovskite solar technology. With a new
aerosol-based treatment, we can make these new solar cells an even more
affordable and efficient option, helping solar power continue to boost our
renewable energy progress across the UK.
The efficiency problem
As the traditional material for solar panel
manufacturing, silicon makes up 90% of the solar cells in use today. But upgrading these cells beyond the current efficiency
is becoming increasingly difficult as they approach their maximum theoretical
efficiency limit.
That’s where perovskite comes in. A combination
of lead, halide, and organic molecules, it can be formed from a chemical
solution and then annealed (heated and cooled slowly) at a much lower
temperature than it takes to work with silicon – only 100-150°C compared to
over 1,400°C for silicon. This makes it cheaper to produce, and easier to work
with.
Initially less efficient than silicon,
perovskite solar cells have undergone significant improvements, and now boast
a solar energy conversion efficiency of over 25% -
comparable to that of the best small area silicon cells.
However, challenges persist. The
low-temperature, solution-based nature of the manufacturing process for
perovskites leads to a high number of flaws in the material, especially when
manufactured over large areas. The cells themselves are also susceptible to
decomposition when exposed to moisture and oxygen, which severely limits
perovskite’s commercial viability.
Addressing these challenges is crucial for
perovskites to emerge as a commercially competitive technology and requires
innovative new manufacturing methods.
Perfecting a new processing method
To overcome these hurdles, and produce new ways
to produce solar, the team and I have explored a novel method known as
aerosol-assisted solvent treatment. This technique involves passing an aerosol
over a surface in a controlled manner before passing through a reactor
containing the heated perovskite sample.
The aerosolized
solution, in our case a dimethylformamide (DMF) solution alone or with added
methylammonium chloride (MACI), significantly enhances the grain growth of
perovskite cells, reducing local defects and improving overall uniformity. The
process itself takes no more than five minutes and can also facilitate
processing some perovskites at a lower temperature (100 degrees C) compared to
direct thermal annealing.
The treated
perovskite cells exhibit remarkable performance improvements, with increased
efficiency and stability across various compositions, device structures, and
areas. And it also makes these cells more affordable and easier to
mass-manufacture.
Moreover, this
process extends its applicability to photodetectors, resulting in enhanced low
light photo-response which makes them almost twice as efficient in low light
conditions - crucial for both photodetectors and solar cells in regions with
limited sunlight. This means that perovskite cells don’t just improve upon
existing technology, but also provide exciting new methods for solar power
generation.
More
- Queen Mary University of London (qmul.ac.uk)
Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
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