Thursday, 28 December 2023

Stocks Boom. US Yields Fall. Gold Soars. AI Sued.

Baltic Dry Index. 2094 Fri.           Brent Crude  79.75

Spot Gold 2087                  US 2 Year Yield 4.20 -0.06

The more I made the more I spent.

Jesse Livermore.

In the stock casinos, boom on till the end of 2023 and then boom, a new global recession arriving?

More bets on US falling interest rates. Gold about to make new highs?


Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher as China stocks rise, Aussie shares hold near two-year highs

UPDATED WED, DEC 27 2023 8:48 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Thursday, with Australia stocks hovering near two-year highs and China markets extending gains to the second straight day, though Japan shares took a breather after rallying the day before.

Markets including Australia and Hong Kong resumed trading Wednesday after a Christmas break, both ending higher, while China stocks were buoyed by a rebound in online gaming stocks.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200  index rose 0.33%, holding at its highest level since late April 2022. The index is set to end the year decidedly higher at 7.7%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.49%, after closing more than 1% higher in the previous session. The broader Topix index shed 0.25%, cooling off after four straight sessions of gains.

Retail sales data from Japan showed a 5.3% growth in November, higher than a Reuters poll forecast of 5%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened 0.65% higher, rising for the second day. Hong Kong is still the worst performing large Asia-Pacific market in 2023, down some 16%.

China’s CSI 300 index opened 0.32% higher, also extending gains to the day.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.49% higher, clinging on to gains from the previous session. The small-cap Kosdaq turned positive by the second hour of trading, rising 0.19%.

Overnight, U.S. stocks finished higher Wednesday as traders kept an eye on the S&P 500′s march toward record levels.

The S&P 500 inched up 0.14%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 111.19 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 37,656.52.

The Dow notched a fresh closing high, while the S&P 500 finished less than 0.5% off of its closing record of 4,796.56 set in January 2022. Along with the Dow and Nasdaq, the S&P is also enjoying an eight-week winning streak — its longest since 2017.

Live updates: China, Aussie stocks gain, Japan shares take a breather (cnbc.com)

 

S&P 500 futures are little changed as index inches closer to all-time high: Live updates

UPDATED WED, DEC 27 2023 7:12 PM EST

S&P 500 futures are near flat Wednesday night as the benchmark index closed in on a new all-time high.

Futures tied to the benchmark index and Nasdaq 100 were both little changed. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 6 points, also near flat.

The action follows a modestly winning day on Wall Street. The S&P 500 ended up 0.1%, rising closer to record levels. The Nasdaq Composite added nearly 0.2% in the session, while the 30-stock Dow finished 0.3% higher.

While the moves were muted, they come as investors look toward to end of what’s been a strong year for stocks.

With just two sessions left in the trading year, the blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500 are poised to finish higher by more than 13% and 24%, respectively. The latter is within 0.5% of its highest closing level, which was set in January 2022

Meanwhile, the technology-heavy Nasdaq is on track for its best year since 2003, climbing more than 44%. That outperformance has been driven by the artificial intelligence craze and a rebound among mega-cap tech names.

The three major indexes are also all on track to notch their ninth straight winning weeks. That underscores the market’s late 2023 rally, rebounding off a negative third quarter.

“2023 was ... good for investors to really test their patience,” said Michael Mullin, chief market strategist at Claro Advisors. “There’s a lot that happens in the middle, but at the end of the day, you can look back and be satisfied that you were an investor.”

Stocks are now in the middle of a period dubbed the “Santa Claus rally,” which refers to the last five trading days of an ending year and first two of a new one. The S&P 500 has risen about 1.3% over this timeframe on average, per data going back to 1950 from the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Traders will monitor economic data on jobless claims and pending home sales Thursday morning.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news, AI is about to get tested by the US tort bar. Never under estimate a US tort lawyer, or do so at one’s peril.


New York Times sues Microsoft, ChatGPT maker OpenAI over copyright infringement

The New York Times on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI, creator of the popular AI chatbot ChatGPT, accusing the companies of copyright infringement and abusing the newspaper’s intellectual property to train large language models.

Microsoft both invests in and supplies OpenAI, providing it with access to the company’s Azure cloud computing technology.

The publisher said in a filing in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that it seeks to hold Microsoft and OpenAI to account for the “billions of dollars in statutory and actual damages” it believes it is owed for the “unlawful copying and use of The Times’s uniquely valuable works.”

The Times said in an emailed statement that it “recognizes the power and potential of GenAI for the public and for journalism,” but added that journalistic material should be used for commercial gain with permission from the original source.

“These tools were built with and continue to use independent journalism and content that is only available because we and our peers reported, edited, and fact-checked it at high cost and with considerable expertise,” the Times said.

“Settled copyright law protects our journalism and content,” the Times added. “If Microsoft and OpenAI want to use our work for commercial purposes, the law requires that they first obtain our permission. They have not done so.”

“We respect the rights of content creators and owners and are committed to working with them to ensure they benefit from AI technology and new revenue models,” an OpenAI representative said in a statement. “Our ongoing conversations with the New York Times have been productive and moving forward constructively, so we are surprised and disappointed with this development. We’re hopeful that we will find a mutually beneficial way to work together, as we are doing with many other publishers.”

A representative for Microsoft didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The Times is represented in the proceedings by Susman Godfrey, the litigation firm that represented Dominion Voting Systems in its defamation suit against Fox News that culminated in a $787.5 million million settlement.

Susman Godfrey is also representing author Julian Sancton and other writers in a separate lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft that accuses the companies of using copyrighted materials without permission to train several versions of ChatGPT.

More

New York Times sues Microsoft, ChatGPT maker OpenAI over copyright infringement (cnbc.com)

Finally, Red Sea disappointment and hope. But the safety of the crews is important.

 

Hapag Lloyd: situation still too dangerous to pass Suez Canal

BERLIN, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Hapag Lloyd (HLAG.DE) still considers the situation too dangerous to pass through the Suez Canal, a spokesperson for the German container shipper said on Wednesday, adding that it would continue to reroute its vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.

 

"We continuously assess the situation and plan a next review on Friday," the spokesperson said.

Hapag Lloyd: situation still too dangerous to pass Suez Canal | Reuters

Maersk schedules dozens of vessels to travel via Suez Canal

OSLO, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Denmark's Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) said on Wednesday it has scheduled several dozen container vessels to travel via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in the next several weeks, after pausing voyages in the area earlier this month due to the risk of attacks.

 

The schedule remains subject to change based on specific contingency plans that may be formed over the coming days, the company added.

The container shipping giant on Dec. 24 said it was preparing a return to the Red Sea, citing the deployment of a U.S.-led military operation to protect vessels against attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants.

 

Among the vessels listed in an advisory to clients on Wednesday was the Maren Maersk, which departed Tangiers on Dec. 24 and would "continue via Suez Canal" with an estimated time of arrival in Singapore on Jan. 14.

Maersk has since Dec. 19 rerouted ships around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks, charging customers extra fees and adding weeks to the time it takes to transport goods from Asia to Europe and to the east coast of North America.

Maersk schedules dozens of vessels to travel via Suez Canal | Reuters

 

Oil prices stabilise as Red Sea transport disruptions ease

By Yuka Obayashi 

Dec 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Thursday after falling sharply in the previous session, as concerns eased about shipping disruptions along the Red Sea route even as tensions in the Middle East continued to rise.

Brent crude futures inched up 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $79.75 a barrel by 0424 GMT, while U.S. WTI crude futures were trading 5 cents lower at $74.06 a barrel. Prices dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday as major shipping firms began returning to the Red Sea.

"Concerns about shipping in the Red Sea have eased, but continued worries about tensions in the Middle East, especially on Iran's involvement in the region, make it difficult to sell further," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

"The market is likely to try the upside again... maybe in the early new year, also on expectations of a recovery in fuel demand thanks to monetary easing in the United States and higher kerosene demand during the winter in the northern hemisphere," he said.

Danish shipping company Maersk said it has scheduled several dozen container vessels to travel via the Suez Canal and Red Sea in the coming weeks after calling a temporary halt to those routes this month after attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia.

But the prospect of a prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza and the spillover of the conflict to attacks on ships in the Red Sea remain major drivers of market sentiment.

More

Oil prices stabilise as Red Sea transport disruptions ease | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation has created a dark cloud over how everyday Americans view the economy

December 26, 2023

When Kyle Connolly looks back at 2023, she sees it as a year defined by changes and challenges.

The newly single parent reentered the workforce, only to be laid off from her job at a custom home-building company in November. At the same time, Connolly has seen prices climb for everything from her Aldi's grocery basket to her condo's utility costs.

In turn, she's cut back on everyday luxuries like eating out or going to the movies. Christmas will look pared down for her three kids compared to years prior.

"I've trimmed everything that I possibly can," said the 41-year-old. "It sucks having to tell my kids no. It sucks when they ask for a little something extra when we're checking out at the grocery store and having to tell them, 'No, I'm sorry, we can't.'"

Economic woes have seemed more apparent within her community in Florida's panhandle. Connolly has noticed fewer 2022 Chevy Suburbans on the road, replaced by older Toyota Camry models. The waters typically filled with boats have been eerily quiet as owners either sold them or tried to cut back on gas costs. Fellow parents have taken to Facebook groups to discuss ways to better conserve money or rake in extra income.

The struggles among Connolly and her neighbors highlight a key conundrum puzzling economists: Why does the average American feel so bad about an economy that's otherwise considered strong?

By many accounts, it has been a good year on this front. The annualized rate of price growth is sliding closer to a level preferred by the Federal Reserve, while the labor market has remained hot. There's rising hope that monetary policymakers have successfully cooled inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. 

Yet closely watched survey data from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment, while improving, is a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. December's index reading showed sentiment improved by almost 17% from a year prior, but was still nearly 30% off from where it sat during the same month in 2019.

"The main issue is that high prices really hurt," said Joanne Hsu, Michigan's director of consumer surveys. "Americans are still trying to come to grips with the idea that we're not going back to the extended period of low inflation, low interest rates that we had in the 2010s. And that reality is not the current reality."

Still, Hsu sees reason for optimism when zooming in. Sentiment has largely improved from its all-time low seen in June 2022 — the same month the consumer price index rose 9.1% from a year earlier — as people started noticing inflationary pressures recede, she said.

One notable caveat was the drop in sentiment this past May, which she tied to the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. The 2024 presidential election has added to feelings of economic uncertainty for some, Hsu said.

More

Inflation has created a dark cloud over how everyday Americans view the economy (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Top 10 COVID Events of the Year: Revealing the Facts Unspoken and Unknown

Here are the top 10 major events that took place in relation to COVID in 2023.

By Marina Zhang  Dec 26, 2023 Updated: Dec 26, 2023

COVID-19 in 2023 has been full of revelations and controversy.

Most health leaders involved in the U.S. pandemic response have resigned or been replaced, with one leaving his agency with a study that received much fanfare for a somewhat controversial take on vaccines.

Compared to 2022, the science on the effectiveness and risks of masking and vaccinations has become increasingly clear with the release of highly authoritative studies this year.

Let us review the top 10 major events that took place in relation to COVID in 2023.

1. FDA and CDC Find More COVID Vaccine Adverse Events, Including Stroke

Beginning in January, documents released under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) found that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) detected hundreds of safety signals for Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. This included adverse reactions of myocarditis, multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), ventricle dysfunctions in the heart, and many more.

On Jan. 13, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the CDC released a joint statement declaring they detected stroke as a new safety signal in older people who took the Pfizer bivalent boosters. Researchers from Kaiser Permanente also reported in October that people who took the COVID boosters with the influenza vaccine were at a greater risk of stroke.

Days later, researchers affiliated with the FDA published a preprint finding that older people who received the Pfizer booster shot had a higher rate of Bell’s palsy, a type of facial paralysis.

In a statement released in May, the FDA determined that "the current evidence does not support the existence of a safety issue," as findings of stroke among the elderly decreased. They added that agencies will continue to evaluate new data as they become available.

2. Vaccines Cannot ‘Effectively’ Control COVID: Fauci After Resigning

The resignation of Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), was noteworthy given his role in leading the United States pandemic response and his actions soon after resigning.

Dr. Fauci was very vocal in encouraging vaccine uptake and regularly appeared on television programs motivating people to get vaccinated.

“It’s as simple as black and white. You’re vaccinated, you’re safe. You’re unvaccinated, you’re at risk. Simple as that,” Dr. Fauci said on an MSNBC program during the Delta wave.

Before the Delta wave in the United States, Dr. Fauci compared vaccinated people to “dead ends” for the virus on CBS’s Face the Nation.

However, on Jan. 11, weeks after his resignation at the end of 2022, Dr. Fauci and two other researchers published a paper in Cell Host & Microbe that gained traction due to their comments on the effectiveness of vaccines in controlling respiratory viruses.

“SARS-CoV-2, endemic coronaviruses, RSV, and many other ‘common cold’ viruses … have not to date been effectively controlled by licensed or experimental vaccines,” the authors wrote in their introduction.

More

Top 10 COVID Events of the Year: Revealing the Facts Unspoken and Unknown | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

US company claims a 99 percent recovery rate with old solar panels

December 26, 2023

We Recycle Solar, a startup based in Arizona, shows how old and out-of-service solar panels could be used in the future. The startup works directly with businesses, helping them dispose of solar waste responsibly and make some money.

The world is currently focused on phasing away fossil fuels and ushering in a carbon-less way of generating energy. Much of this plan rests on solar panels, which can trap sun rays and convert them into electricity. The technology has been improving over the years but also presents a problem now that the first wave of solar installations has come to the end of its life cycle.

Solar panels are estimated to have a lifespan of 30 years, after which they can no longer generate power efficiently. In countries like the US, the user bears the cost of removing and recycling these panels, making it easier to dump them at a local landfill.

Arizona-based We Recycle Solar aims to offer customers a better option than to dump the panels. It has partnered with various solar panel manufacturers, contractors, and utility companies to source older solar panels.

The startup gives a new lease of life to new solar panels that might have a production defect or be damaged during installation by refurbishing them. Such panels often find a market outside the US. But many more panels in the US are currently being phased out, which will only increase soon.

The startup gives owners of these panels an option to recycle the components by offering money as an added incentive.

CEO Adam Saghei says that the startup has found treasure in the decrepit solar panels after its engineers perfected the process after more than three years of effort. Saghei calls the process "urban mining" and has used it to recover silver, copper, aluminum, glass, and silicone from these unwanted solar panels.

On its website, the startup claims to have recovered 495 tons of aluminum, 147 tons of copper, and over 10,000 tons of glass. It is easy to gauge the interest in metals since they can be put back into manufacturing.

The organization's brilliance has been finding suitable uses for items like silicone and glass. "You can use it for sand traps on golf courses, you can refine it for sandblast mix, you can also use it for the stones or the glass mix that you get for outdoor fireplaces," Saghei told AFP.

At a facility in Yuma, Arizona, the startup is processing 7,500 panels a day while being able to recover 99 percent of materials and putting them back to kickstart a circular economy.

Few organizations are willing to take up this role right now, given the labor and energy-intensive nature of the business. However, Saghei is confident that as more panels begin to go out of service, the industry will scale, and many more companies will join the fray for urban mining.

US company claims a 99 percent recovery rate with old solar panels (msn.com)

I did exactly the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.

Jesse Livermore.


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