Baltic
Dry Index. 2551 +42 Brent Crude 72.97
Spot Gold 1978 US 2 Year Yield 4.73 +0.02
Financiers are great mythomaniacs, their explanations and
superstitions are those of primitive men; the world is a jungle to them. They
perceive acutely that they are at the dawn of economic history.
House of All Nations. 1938.
It is Fed Chairman
Powell’s big day. While the US central bank is expected to leave its key
interest rate unchanged, the stock casinos are waiting/expecting to hear a dovish
Chairman Powell give a green light to interest rate cuts starting early next
year.
I mean, it’s a
presidential election year in the USA next year, Chairman Powell and his
central bankster gang don’t want to elect former President Trump do they.
After Chairman Powell’s
expected green light, the Great Santa Claus (Exit) Bubble can get underway.
What could possibly go wrong? Look away from that falling oil price now.
China leads
declines among Asia markets as investors await Fed rate decision
UPDATED TUE, DEC 12 2023 10:55 PM
EST
China stocks led declines among Asia-Pacific
markets Wednesday as investors digested Beijing’s plan to lift domestic demand,
ahead of the interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The mainland Chinese CSI 300
index shed nearly 1% on Wednesday. It comes a day after China’s
leaders vowed to boost domestic demand, prioritize the development
of strategic sectors and tackle the country’s real estate crisis, following a
key meeting that laid out economic priorities for 2024.
The measures stated by Beijing
were largely in-line with market expectations, according to BofA Global
Research. “We do not expect a policy ‘bazooka’ package featuring aggressive
fiscal expansion or rate cuts to be released.”
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan
quarterly survey, which measures economic conditions in Japan, showed business
confidence at big manufacturers improved more than expected in the fourth
quarter, with the index climbing to +12 from +10.
Meanwhile, the index for big
non-manufacturers’ sentiment rose to +30 from +27, improving for the seventh
quarter in a row.
A positive index reading
indicates optimistic respondents outnumber pessimistic ones.
Later in the day, the Fed is
expected to release its policy statement and will
likely hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range
between 5.25%-5.5%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.36%, extending its four-month highs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced
0.44%, while the Topix was flat.
In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi fell
0.48% and the small-cap Kosdaq slid 0.64%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.72% after leading gains in Asia on Tuesday.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
gained ground for a fourth straight day as U.S. inflation came in as expected,
with the consumer price index rising 3.1% year-on-year.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average touched
their highest intraday levels since April and January of last year,
respectively.
The S&P 500 added
0.46%, while the Dow gained 0.48%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq
Composite advanced 0.70%.
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates, Japan Tankan, Fed decision, China economy (cnbc.com)
European stocks head for mixed open ahead of
Federal Reserve rate decision
UPDATED WED, DEC 13 2023 12:23 AM
EST
European markets are heading for a mixed open
Wednesday as investors await the the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last monetary
policy decision of the year.
The Fed is expected to hold
its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range of 5.25% to
5.5%, but investors will be analyzing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for
clues on how soon rate cuts can be expected. For now, the CME FedWatch Tool
shows markets are pricing in odds of rate cuts beginning next spring.
Overnight, China stocks led
declines among Asia-Pacific
markets as investors digested Beijing’s plan to lift domestic
demand, ahead of the interest rate decision from the Fed. U.S.
stock futures ticked higher.
All three major indexes gained
ground for a fourth straight day Tuesday as U.S. inflation came in as expected,
with the consumer price index rising 3.1% year on year.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, US inflation data, Fed (cnbc.com)
Here’s everything the Fed is expected to do
Wednesday
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is likely to
mark a substantial turning point for policymakers who have spent the past
two years battling runaway inflation.
That there’s virtually no chance
central bank policymakers will vote to raise rates is beside the point: What is
likely to occur when the Federal Open Market Committee session wraps up
Wednesday is a policy turn away from aggressive rate hikes and toward plans for
what happens next.
“This would be the third straight meeting where the Fed remained on hold
and, in our view, means that the Fed likely sees itself as done with the hiking
cycle,” Michael Gapen, U.S. economist at Bank of America, said in a client
note.
While acknowledging that future accelerations in
inflation could force the Fed to raise rates further, “we think that a cooling
economy is more likely and that the narrative should shift in the direction of
cuts over hikes in 2024,” Gapen added.
That move to cuts,
though likely expressed in a subtle way, would represent a major pivot for the
Fed after 11 interest rate hikes.
Along with an
announcement on rates, the Fed also will update its projections on economic
growth, inflation and unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell also
will deliver his usual post-meeting news conference, where he either could
discuss a strategy to ease policy now that inflation is decelerating, or
continue to talk tough, an outcome that could rattle markets.
Here’s a quick
rundown in what to expect:
In its post-meeting communique, the rate-setting
Federal Open Market Committee almost certainly will say that it is holding its
benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
There also could be
some language tweaks on the committee’s assessment of employment, inflation,
housing and overall economic growth.
For instance, Bank of
America thinks the committee might drop its reference to “additional policy
firming” and simply say that it is committed to getting inflation back down to
2%.
Likewise, Goldman
Sachs sees a possibility that the statement excludes a characterization
regarding tighter financial conditions and possibly make a few other small
changes that had been used to convey a bias toward raising rates.
More
Here's
everything the Fed is expected to do Wednesday (cnbc.com)
Consumer prices
rose 0.1% in November from the prior month
PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 12 2023 8:33
AM EST
Prices across a broad
range of goods and services edged higher in November as energy prices declined,
providing hope that inflation could be on a lower trajectory.
The consumer price
index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was
up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.
While the monthly
rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate
showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month earlier.
Excluding volatile
food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year
ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October.
A 2.3% decrease in
energy prices helped keep inflation in check, as gasoline fell 6% and fuel oil
was off 2.7%. Food prices increased 0.2%, boosted by a 0.4% jump in food away
from home. On an annual basis, food rose 2.9% while energy was down 5.4%.
Shelter prices, which
make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, increased 0.4% on the month and
were up 6.5% on a 12-month basis. However, the annual rate has showed a steady
decline since peaking in early 2023.
CPI inflation report November 2023 (cnbc.com)
In other news, Argentina’s chain saw economic
policies go into effect.
Argentina
devalues its currency and cuts subsidies as part of shock economic measures
Argentina on Tuesday announced a sharp devaluation
of its currency and cuts to energy and transportation subsidies as part of
shock measures new President
Javier Milei says are needed to deal with an economic
“emergency.”
Economy Minister Luis Caputo said
in a televised message the Argentine peso will be devalued by 50% to 800 to the
U.S. dollar from 400 pesos to the dollar.
“For a few months, we’re going to be worse than before,” Milei said, two
days after the libertarian was sworn in as president of the second largest
economy in South America and immediately warned
of tough measures.
Argentina is
suffering 143% annual inflation, its currency has plunged and four in 10
Argentines are impoverished. The nation has also a yawning fiscal deficit, a
trade deficit of $43 billion, plus a daunting $45 billion debt to the
International Monetary Fund, with $10.6 billion due to the multilateral and
private creditors by April.
As part of the new
measures, Caputo said the government is canceling tenders of any public works
projects and cutting some state jobs to reduce the size of the government.
He also announced
cuts to energy and transportation subsidies without providing details or saying
by how much, and added that Milei’s administration is reducing the number of
ministries from 18 to 9.
He said the measures
are necessary to cut the fiscal deficit he believes is the cause of the
country’s economic problems, including surging inflation.
“If we continue as we
are, we are inevitably heading toward hyperinflation,” Caputo said. “Our
mission is to avoid a catastrophe.”
The IMF welcomed the
measures, saying they provide “a good foundation” for further discussions with
Argentina about its debt with the institution.
More
Argentina's
economic measures devalues its currency and cuts subsidies (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
A 'severe recession' may be coming in 2024 as the
stock market, job market flash warning signs, strategist says
December 11, 2023
The US could fall into a severe downturn in
early 2024 as a handful of recession signals flash throughout the economy,
according to Briley Wealth's chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich.
In a note on Friday, Dietrich
pointed to monster gains investors have seen in the S&P 500 this year, with
the benchmark index notching its best month of the year in November.
That rally
has largely been fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates early next year — but rate cuts likely aren't coming until the economy
tips into a downturn, Dietrich warned.
"Investors shouldn't
count on the central bank lowering borrowing costs unless the US economy falls
into a severe recession — which may happen early next year," Dietrich
said. "The Fed typically starts cutting rates when there is a sharply
slowing economy and rising unemployment — meaning a recession."
Signs of a recession are
starting to build, Dietrich notes. The stock market's 20% rally this year is
one such warning, he said, as the S&P 500 has typically posted outsized
gains in the months leading up to a downturn. That was the case prior to the
2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions, when stocks rallied sharply before the economy
began contracting.
There are other "stock market disconnects" that are making the
case the economy will soon roll over into a downturn, he added. Though the
S&P 500 is up overall for the year, the S&P 500 equal-weighed index,
which is more representative of the average stock, has fallen into
"correction territory," Dietrich said.
The labor market is also starting to weaken. Job openings have fallen,
while continuing claims for unemployment benefits have steadily been
rising.
And though the overall unemployment rate ticked lower in November,
continuing unemployment claims briefly rose to 1.93 million last month. That's
the highest continuing claims have been since late 2021, and are at what
Dietrich describes as "recessionary levels."
"To think that after a 13-year bull market, we will not see a
normal cyclical bear market recession, is to believe that the business cycle
has been miraculously repealed after 400 years of historic stock market
cyclical data. The believe this time will be different. It never is," he
said of investors' recession outlook.
Markets have generally warmed up to idea of a
soft landing next year, with Wall Street strategists largely expecting another
positive year for stocks in 2024. Bank of America and Deutsche Bank predicted
the S&P 500 could see a new all-time-high in 2024. The New York Fed,
meanwhile, has lowered its 12-month recession prediction to just 51%, down from an over 70% chance earlier this year.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
CDC Reveals New
'Fastest-Growing' COVID-19 Variant in US
The
CDC said it's unclear to what extent JN.1 is contributing to hospitalizations
12/10/2023 Updated: 12/10/2023
The U.S.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicated that the JN.1
COVID-19 subvariant is increasingly across the United States, comprising
potentially a third of all cases.
The variant
comprised about 0.1 percent of all COVID-19 cases in the United States as of
late October, according to the federal health agency in a Dec. 8 update. But as
of Dec. 8, it now makes up about 15 to 29 percent of cases, it said.
"CDC projects that JN.1 will continue
to increase as a proportion of SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences," the CDC said. "It is currently the fastest-growing
variant in the United States."
The CDC
said in another update that the JN.1 level jumped from 8.1 percent
to 21.4 percent in the past two weeks. JN.1 is now the second-most common
variant in the U.S., behind only the HV.1 variant, according to the CDC.
Despite the fast growth of JN.1, there is
"no evidence" at this time that it "presents an increased risk
to public health relative to other currently circulating variants," said the CDC. There is also no signs of
"increased severity" from the variant, the agency added.
Current
COVID-19 treatments and tests are believed to be effective against JN.1, it
said, adding that "the continued growth of JN.1 suggests that it is either
more transmissible or better at evading our immune systems."
The CDC also
said it's unclear to what extent JN.1 is contributing to hospitalizations in
the U.S. but said that COVID-19 activity is likely going to increase during the
winter months.
Researchers
and the CDC say that JN.1 is a COVID-19 variant that descended from the BA.2.86
lineage, which is another Omicron sub-variant.
“BA.2.86 has more than 20 mutations on the
spike protein and there was a concern when it was first detected a while back
that, wow, this might be a real problem,” Thomas Russo, professor and
chief of infectious diseases at the University at Buffalo in New York, told
Prevention.
Symptoms
There is no data to indicate if JN.1 causes
any new symptoms, said William Schaffner, a professor at the Vanderbilt
University School of Medicine.
More
CDC Reveals New 'Fastest-Growing' COVID-19 Variant in
US | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something a little different.
Removing carbon dioxide.
New analysis outlines national opportunities to
remove carbon dioxide at the gigaton scale
Dec. 11, 2023
Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory (LLNL)
researchers, along with scientists from more than a dozen institutions, have
completed a first-of-its-kind high-resolution assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2)
removal (CDR) in the United States. The report, “Roads to Removal: Options for
Carbon Dioxide Removal in the United States,” charts a path for the United
States to achieve a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) economy by 2050, helping to
ensure the nation’s climate security and resilience by cleaning up Earth’s
atmosphere and addressing the root cause of climate change. It also includes an
integrated analysis of CDR techniques and resources that are currently
available, along with the costs that will be incurred on the path to net-zero.
In 2022, the United States
government established a 2050 goal to reach net-zero emissions by decarbonizing
our economy, removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it at
the gigaton scale (at least a billion tons per year). Roads to Removal lays out
a road map to this goal and answers the question: How much CO2 is
it possible to remove in the United States and at what cost?
The report concludes that with today’s
technologies, removing 1 billion metric tons of CO2 per year
will annually cost roughly $130 billion in 2050, or about 0.5% of current GDP.
This will require increasing the uptake of carbon in forests and in working
agricultural lands, converting waste biomass into fuels and CO2 and using
purpose-built machines to remove CO2 directly from the air.
This ensemble of lowest-cost approaches for CO2 removal would
create more than 440,000 long-term jobs and can be achieved using renewable
energy sources, with currently available land and below ground geologic
storage. The granular analysis provided in the Roads to Removal report gives
decision makers across the United States a lens for location-specific
opportunities, enabling them to make decisions that best fit the places they
call home.
Unique approach
delivers reliable cost and impact estimates
The report provides a supply analysis
built from measurements of economic feasibility and CDR technical potential
with the highest-resolution data available. Unlike previous analyses, which
used integrated assessment or top-down models, the methods used in Roads to
Removal rely on bottom-up calculations, and use the most current estimates for
resource demands, costs and impacts of potential CO2 removal
approaches by county.
Roads to Removal identifies specific
opportunities by location for soil and forest management, biomass conversion
and direct air capture (DAC) technologies, as well as geological resources. It
provides information on various CDR transportation pathways, as well as
crosscutting regional and environmental justice considerations. These analyses
will be useful for weighing alternatives and local benefits for specific CDR
projects.
More
A bank is a confidence trick. If you put up the right signs, the
wizards of finance themselves will come in and ask you to take their money.
House of All Nations. 1938
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