Baltic
Dry Index. 2483 +26 Brent Crude 76.55
Spot Gold 1989 US 2 Year Yield 4.71 unch.
If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s
financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the
government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic
risks than it seems during a boom.
Carmen Reinhart.
Little need for me to add to today’s stock casino updates. Later today, the latest US inflation data. From Bloomberg’s morning newsletter:
US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations dropped in November to the lowest level since April 2021, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday. The pullback in expectations, which can often act as a leading indicator for actual inflation, were influenced by shifting consumer forecasts for gasoline, rent and education prices. Inflation views among those over age 60 also retreated to a nearly three-year low.
Today, tomorrow and Thursday, several end of year central bank meetings.
Finally, Warren Buffett cashes out.
Japan stocks
lead Asia markets higher ahead of Fed’s final meeting of 2023
UPDATED MON, DEC 11 2023 8:46 PM
EST
Asia-Pacific
markets edged higher Tuesday, with Japan stocks leading gains for a second
straight session ahead of the final U.S. Federal Reserve meeting of the year.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded
0.61% higher, after closing up 1.6% in the previous session. The broader Topix
rose 0.28%.
Producer prices in Japan have
risen at a faster-than-expected pace, notching a 0.3% gain year-on-year
compared with the 0.1% rise estimated by economists polled by Reuters.
The Fed’s two-day meeting kicks
off Tuesday, and the U.S. central bank is expected to maintain the Federal
Funds rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range.
The Japanese yen showed
some strength against the dollar, trading about 0.1% higher at 146.04 as
investors will be keenly watching the impact of the Fed’s decision on the
dollar/yen pair.
Market players will also assess
the U.S. November inflation figures out late Tuesday, which are expected to
come in at 3.1%, according to a Reuters poll. This figure is slightly lower
than the 3.2% seen in October.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.4%, and was on pace for its highest level since September.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed
0.28%, while the smaller Kosdaq index slipped marginally below the flatline.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rebounded
off a one-year low to gain 0.48%, but the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index fell
0.28%
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
advanced, with the Dow Jones
Industrial Average recording
its third straight day of gains.
The Dow advanced 0.43% to close
at its highest since January 2022, while the S&P500 rose 0.39% and the Nasdaq
Composite added 0.20%.
Asia stock markets
today: Live updates, FOMC meeting, Japan corporate inflation (cnbc.com)
European
markets head for higher open as investors await U.S. inflation data, Fed
meeting
UPDATED TUE, DEC 12 2023 12:37 AM
EST
European markets are heading for a higher open
Tuesday as global investors look ahead to this week’s Federal Reserve policy
meeting, which begins today, as well as the latest U.S. inflation reading.
Economists anticipate that
headline consumer price index PI held steady in November compared to the
previous month, and predict that it grew by 3.1% on a 12-month basis.
The data comes as the U.S.
Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting, where it will mull over its
latest interest rate policy and issue economic projections.
Asia-Pacific markets edged
higher Tuesday, with Japan stocks leading gains for a second straight session. U.S.
stock futures were little changed overnight as Wall Street
looks to see if the market rally can power through another round of inflation
data.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed ahead of key
inflation report: Live updates
UPDATED MON, DEC 11 2023 8:33 PM
EST
Stock futures were little changed on Monday
evening as Wall Street looks to see if the market rally can power through
another round of inflation data.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average ticked
up 6 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500
futures oscillated
near the flat line, and Nasdaq 100 futures inched
higher by 0.1%.
The moves come after stocks rose
modestly on Monday, a sign that the end-of-year rally still has momentum. The S&P 500 closed
at its highest level since March 2022, while the 30-stock Dow settled
at its highest point since January 2022.
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are
all riding three-day winning streaks and have six consecutive weeks of gains.
Tuesday could put some of the
investor optimism to the test, with the November consumer price index due out
before the bell. The Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year also kicks off
on Tuesday.
“The recent rally is based on
hopes that a Goldilocks-type scenario lies ahead. Specifically, this would
include softer economic growth (but no recession) and a substantial number of
Fed rate cuts due to a continued sharp fall in inflation. Unfortunately, we
believe much of the good news is discounted,” Sameer Samana, senior global
market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a note to
clients Monday.
Earnings news could also weigh on
stocks on Tuesday. Shares of tech giant Oracle were
down 7% in extended trading after the company’s revenue for the fiscal
second quarter missed Wall Street expectations.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Finally, what does Warren Buffett know that
we don’t? If Warren Buffett thinks this is a good time to be out of an over
priced market and in the safety of cash equivalents earning over 5 percent, who
am I to disagree.
Warren
Buffet Selling $28.7 Billion in Stock Rings Alarm Bells Over Economy
Warren Buffett's firm
Berkshire Hathaway sold $28.7 billion of stock in the first three quarters of
2023 in a move that some economists have interpreted as ringing alarm bells for
the American economy.
According to the
company's earnings, the Nebraska-based firm of the legendary investor and
billionaire, known as the Oracle of Omaha, sold a net $10.4 billion of stock in
the first quarter of the year. In the second quarter, it sold close to $13
billion of shares and bought less than $5 billion. In the third quarter, it
sold about $5.3 billion worth of stocks.
As Buffett is
considered one of the greatest investors of all time, as well as one of
America's richest men, his moves are closely observed and analyzed.
For Steve H. Hanke, a
professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on
President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, Buffett's and Berkshire
Hathaway's "recent lightening up on stocks and accumulation of a pile of cash—$157
billion—is consistent with the fact that stocks are relatively pricey right
now."
But it's also, crucially, a sign "that a recession is
right around the corner," Hanke told Newsweek.
"The money
supply of the United States, broadly measured [M2], started contracting in July
2022, and has been falling like a stone," Hanke said. "Since last
year, the U.S. money supply has contracted by 3.3 percent."
According to Hanke,
there have been only four periods in U.S. history—in 1920-21, 1929-33, 1937-38
and 1948-49—in which the money supply has had significant contractions.
"Each of those
four episodes was followed by a serious recession," he said. "The
current monetary contraction is clearly going to lead to precisely what
monetary contractions always lead to: a recession."
With the expectation of a recession, Hanke said, Buffett's
recent moves "are classic Buffett."
"He loves to fish in troubled waters," Hanke said.
"And with the Fed putting the money supply in a nosedive the likes that we
haven't seen since 1933, Buffett is correctly anticipating that troubled
economic waters are in the offing. He will then profitably deploy his cash
hoard.
More
Warren
Buffet Selling $28.7 Billion in Stock Rings Alarm Bells Over Economy
(newsweek.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
'Somebody
has it wrong' on U.S. recession risks as oil, gold and Treasurys diverge, fund
manager says
December 11, 2023
- Markets are confused over
the risk of a recession hitting the U.S., and "somebody has got it
wrong," according to hedge fund manager David Neuhauser.
- Falling oil prices and
rising gold prices indicate growing recessionary fears — but 10-year
Treasury yields jumped on Friday amid hopes of a soft landing.
- The CIO of Livermore Partners said: "Somebody has it wrong here, is what I'm trying to tell you. ... It's hard to describe who has it [wrong] yet."
Markets are confused over the odds of
a U.S. recession, and "somebody has got it wrong," according to hedge
fund manager David Neuhauser.
The CIO of Livermore Partners told
CNBC on Monday that many investors are hoping for a "Goldilocks"
scenario, in which the economy doesn't grow too quickly, or shrink too much.
"The outlook was, of
course, that the Fed's going to look to be cutting rates because they see a
soft landing approaching. And it looks like, on the surface, it is," he
told "Squawk Box Europe."
Recent
jobs data and inflation figures have boosted hopes that a recession can be
avoided in the U.S. Nonfarm
payrolls outpaced expectations in November, and inflation figures
for October also beat estimates, with consumer prices coming in flat on the
previous month and up
3.2% from a year prior.
"But at the same time,
underneath the surface, you're seeing a lot of cracks," Neuhauser added.
He identified weakness in the
U.S. consumer and the global economy — China in particular — and in the fact
that inflation numbers remain stubbornly high in a number of countries.
"It looks like the U.S.
is the best spot to be in, and I think that today that's true. Except I think
that [the] forward path — are we going to see things start to fall off a cliff?
Or are we going to, sort of, glide path down and corporate earnings are going
to be sheltered from the storm?" he said.
"That's the thing, I think,
people don't have a really good understanding of today, but they're believing
that that's going to happen — that's the narrative."
Oil and gas markets, which Livermore
Partners is invested in, are "telling a whole different story" when
it comes to the economic outlook, according to Neuhauser.
"When you look at the oil … and
you look at the gold market, that's telling you recession is in the
front," he said. "But when you read the tea leaves in terms of what
analysts are saying, economists are saying as far as the U.S. economy — that
the soft landing is approaching. That's what, actually, the 10-year [Treasury
yield] is telling you."
Brent crude futures with February
expiry were trading around $75.67 per barrel early Monday, down over 20% from
their peak of around $97 per barrel in September.
More
U.S. Money Supply Is Shrinking for the First Time Since
the Great Depression, and It May Portend a Big Move for Stocks
By Sean Williams – Dec 3, 2023 at 5:06AM
KEY POINTS
- There have
only been five meaningful dips in M2 money supply dating back to 1870. The
four previous instances were all accompanied by deflationary depressions.
- In addition
to M2 contracting, another key money-based metric appears to spell trouble
ahead for the U.S. economy.
- History has a knack for rewarding patient, optimistic,
and opportunistic investors.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Adverse Events
From COVID Vaccination More Likely With Prior COVID Infection
People
who have moderate to severe COVID-19 prior to vaccination may have increased
reactogenicity to COVID-19 vaccines, according to a Canadian study.
11/28/2023 Updated: 12/2/2023
Individuals
previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop immunity and may be more likely to
experience adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination compared to those with
no history of infection, according to a study published in Clinical Infectious
Diseases.
Canadian researchers conducted a large,
prospective observational study to assess the
short-term safety of COVID-19 vaccines in adults with a previous history of
SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Study
participants were sent an electronic questionnaire seven days after receiving
their first, second, and third vaccine doses to assess whether adverse events
experienced after vaccination prevented daily activities, attendance at work or
school, or required medical care, including hospitalization.
Among 684,998
vaccinated participants included in the analysis, 369,406 received Pfizer’s
COVID-19 vaccine, 201,314 received Moderna, and 113,127 received AstraZeneca's
viral vector vaccine.
There were 18,127
individuals (2.6 percent) who reported previous laboratory-confirmed COVID-19
infection two to six months before receiving their first vaccine dose.
According to the
study, individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 were more likely to
experience an adverse event the week following vaccination—regardless of the
vaccine type—that interfered with daily activities, school, and work or
required emergency department visits or hospitalization.
After the second
and third vaccine doses, the greater risk associated with previous SARS-CoV-2
infection was also present but was weakened compared with the first dose.
The association
was lower or absent for all doses after mild or asymptomatic infection. In
other words, the risk was most significant among those who experienced moderate
to severe COVID-19 prior to vaccination.
In addition, mRNA
COVID-19 vaccines continued to produce increased immune reactions in previously
infected individuals, whereas AstraZeneca's viral vector vaccine did not.
Following Pfizer or Moderna's booster—or third vaccine dose—researchers found
that a higher proportion of previously infected participants reported adverse
events that interfered with daily activities, school, or work—or that required
medical intervention.
"The
association is stronger after the first dose than after the second and third
doses,” the authors wrote. “Providers should consider additional vaccine
counseling on expected adverse effects for individuals previously infected with
SARS-CoV-2 prior to vaccination," they concluded.
“These findings
are not surprising, nor should any immunologist be surprised,” public health
advocate and immunologist Dr. Hooman Noorchashm told The Epoch Times. “If you
vaccinate people who’ve experienced natural infection, especially recently,
you’re potentially opening the door to medical complications.”
More
Adverse Events From COVID Vaccination More Likely With
Prior COVID Infection | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
oxide improves 3D-printed concrete
December 11, 2023
Researchers at RMIT
University and the University of Melbourne discovered that adding graphene
oxide to 3D-printing cement can boost its strength and printability. Also, the
additive gives the material electrical conductivity, which could enable the
creation of “smart” walls that can sense and monitor cracks in buildings.
Experts worldwide have been developing
3D-printed structures as a new construction method. One day, a 3D printer may
build your new home from the ground up. However, it is not a foolproof method,
so we must find ways to enhance it. Fortunately, graphene oxide could be the
key to making 3D-printing homes more practical.
This article will
elaborate on graphene oxide’s capacity to improve 3D-printed concrete. Later, I
will show you other things graphene could do. How does graphene oxide improve
concrete? RMIT Associate Professor and research supervisor Jonathan Tran said graphene
could strengthen 3D-printed concrete.
As a result, it could
become a more viable option in the construction industry. Conventional concrete
structures require formwork, which involves creating a mold before pouring
fresh concrete into it. Tran said this process requires a lot of time, money,
and labor and usually creates a lot of waste. On the other hand, 3D-printed
concrete could become more efficient in all these areas. Moreover, it could
create more complex structures and reuse construction waste. Tran explained
that graphene oxide had functional groups of various oxygen groups on its
surface. These facilitated stronger bonds with cement, improving concrete’s
overall strength.
Another great potential
use for graphene oxide concrete was creating “smart” buildings where walls can
act as sensors to detect and monitor small cracks. The research supervisor said
existing methods, like acoustic and ultrasonic sensors, struggled to detect
small cracks early. Adding graphene oxide could create an electrical circuit in
the concrete structure to help detect structural issues, temperature changes,
and other environmental factors.
More
Graphene oxide improves 3D-printed concrete (msn.com)
The intelligent
investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
Benjamin Graham.
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