Tuesday, 19 December 2023

Stocks, Bubble On Into 2024! A Red Sea War?

Baltic Dry Index. 2288 -60           Brent Crude  78.06

Spot Gold 2024                  US 2 Year Yield 4.43 -0.01

Every tax ought to be so contrived as both to take out and to keep out of the pockets of the people as little as possible, over and above what it brings into the public treasury of the state…

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

In the stock casinos, it’s bubble on into 24. What’s not to like, the central banksters have our backs covered, right.

Stop working now and start gambling investing.  We’re all going to get filthy rich says Goldman Sachs.

Still that rising oil price is worrying about a Red Sea shipping war.

 

Japan’s stocks jump after BOJ keeps monetary policy unchanged in final meeting of 2023

UPDATED MON, DEC 18 2023 11:44 PM EST

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1% Tuesday after the the Bank of Japan left its main policy rate unchanged at its final meeting of the year.

The BOJ made no change to its negative interest rate policy, holding the benchmark interest rate at -0.1%. The central bank also kept its stance on its yield curve control policy unchanged.

The central bank also warned of “high uncertainties” in Japan, saying that core inflation will stay above 2% throughout fiscal 2024.

The yen weakened 0.5% against the dollar to 143.50 after the decision. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.04% by midday trading, while the Topix also turned decidedly positive, last up about 0.23%.

“We maintain our call that the BoJ will abolish the NIRP (negative interest rate policy) at the April meeting next year after confirming a robust spring wage settlement,” Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan Economics at Oxford Economics, wrote in a client note.

“After ending the NIRP, however, our inflation projection anticipates the BoJ maintaining an effective zero-interest rate policy for a few years.”

Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia’ minutes revealed the Australian central bank deliberated on whether to raise rates by 25 basis points or leave them unchanged, with the board members eventually deciding to hold rates at 4.35%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.59%, resuming its climb after the index snapped a six-day winning streak on Monday.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.10% down, while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.64% after hitting its highest level since Sept. 22 on Monday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell more than 1% by the open, while mainland China’s CSI 300 opened 0.3% lower.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.45% and 0.61% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat.

The S&P 500 is now 1.2% away from its all-time closing high at 4,796.56 that was reached in January 2022.

Asia stock markets: Live updates, BOJ decision, RBA minutes (cnbc.com)


European markets head for higher open; G7 meeting of finance, central bank officials ahead

UPDATED TUE, DEC 19 2023 12:24 AM EST

European markets are set to open higher Tuesday, rebounding slightly from lackluster trade in the previous trading session.

Markets are winding down before the Christmas holidays, although international gatherings of senior officials continue, with finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven industrialized nations meeting Tuesday.

Overnight in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1% Tuesday after the the Bank of Japan left its main policy rate unchanged at its final meeting of the year. U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline on Monday evening.

European markets live updates: Stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Your Evening Briefing: Suddenly Next Year Looks Glorious for Stocks

December 18, 2023 at 10:52 PM GMT

Just one month after setting their 2024 target for the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs strategists increased that forecast as the year-end rally shows no signs of abating.

The US Federal Reserve’s pivot last week along with lower consumer prices have brightened the picture, a team led by David Kostin wrote in a note. “Equities were already pricing positive economic activity but now reflect an even more robust outlook,” they said. Kostin sees the S&P 500 at 5,100 points by the end of next year, joining Wall Street peers at Bank of America and Oppenheimer Asset Management in expecting a fresh high. And the story on Monday was more of the same, with markets buoyed by a burst of deals as traders largely ignored efforts by Fed officials to temper expectations. Here’s your markets wrap.

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Suddenly Next Year Looks Glorious for Stocks - Bloomberg

In other news, the US assembles a Red Sea armada to protect Red Sea shipping. Under the incredibly weak international “leadership” of President “Joe” Biden, we all go to war in 24?

US-led Red Sea patrol force to respond to attacks by Houthis

By Bassam MasoudPhil Stewart and James Mackenzie

GAZA/MANAMA/JERUSALEM, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Several countries have agreed to jointly carry out patrols in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to try to safeguard commercial shipping against attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels, who say they are supporting Palestinians under siege by Israel in the Gaza Strip.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, on a visit to Bahrain, identified several countries taking part in an international force. It was unclear whether those countries are willing to do what U.S. warships have done in recent days - shoot down Houthi missiles and drones and rush to the aid of commercial ships under attack.

"This is an international challenge that demands collective action. Therefore today I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative," Austin said in a statement on Tuesday.

It identified participating nations led by the United States as including among others Bahrain, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain.

The Iran-backed Houthis have waded into the Israel-Hamas conflict by attacking vessels in vital shipping lanes and even firing drones and missiles at Israel, more than 1,000 miles from their seat of power in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa.

Houthis attacked two commercial shipping vessels in the southern Red Sea on Monday, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement. The chemical/oil tanker motor vessel Swan Atlantic was attacked by a drone and an anti-ship ballistic missile, it said. At about the same time in a separate incident, the bulk cargo ship MSC Clara reported an explosion in the water near its location, CENTCOM said.

There were no injuries reported by either vessel.

Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea on Monday identified the same vessels as being attacked and said drones were used because the crews failed to respond to calls from the group.

The Houthis have threatened to target all ships heading to Israel, regardless of their nationality, and warned international shipping companies against dealing with Israeli ports.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi politburo, told Al Jazeera on Monday his group would be able to confront any U.S.-led coalition that could deploy to the Red Sea.

More

US-led Red Sea patrol force to respond to attacks by Houthis | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Washington-area office default risk surpasses San Francisco

Published Tue, Dec 19, 2023 · 8:17 am Updated Tue, Dec 19, 2023 · 8:21 am

THE Washington area has passed San Francisco for the highest share of office buildings with bank loans at risk of default, as US government employees continue to work remotely.

Loans of concern on offices in the US capital region climbed to 72 per cent in the third quarter, topping San Francisco’s 71 per cent, real estate data firm Trepp reported. The rate for Washington was 38 per cent at the end of 2022.

Seattle is the only other US metro area with more than 50 per cent of “criticised” bank loans, which Trepp defines as backed by properties with high vacancies, expiring leases, maturing debt or other red flags for refinancing or repayment.

San Francisco’s office troubles have been blamed on a combination of the high number of tech employees working remotely and concerns about the city’s safety and quality of life. Washington’s woes are more protracted because the federal government is slow to respond to changing work patterns, and office demand could soften dramatically if government austerity measures kick in, according to Stephen Buschbom, a research director at Trepp.

“Washington, DC, could be the new ground zero for office distress,” Buschbom said.

Response to a return-to-office mandate for the federal government and General Services Administration “has been bleak, and time will tell if they will start to decentralise out of the DC area”, Trepp said. “If remote work is more of a permanent strategy for these government entities, there is a lot of excess inventory that could flood the market.”

Washington-area office default risk surpasses San Francisco, Property - THE BUSINESS TIMES

 

Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-easy monetary policy in light of ‘extremely high uncertainties’

Japan’s central bank expectedly left its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged at its final policy meeting this year in light of “extremely high uncertainties” affecting the world’s third-largest economy, pushing any likely unwinding to the new year.

The Bank of Japan decided unanimously to keep interest rates at -0.1%, while also sticking to its yield curve control policy that keeps the upper limit for 10-year Japanese government bond yield at 1% as a reference.

“With extremely high uncertainties surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad, the Bank will patiently continue with monetary easing, while nimbly responding to developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions,” the BOJ said in a policy statement Tuesday.

---- With Bank of Japan’s possible unwinding of its ultra-loose monetary policy being challenged by a slowing economy and cooling inflation, most economists expect Governor Kazuo Ueda to only make changes next year, once the annual spring wage negotiations confirm a trend of meaningful wage increases.

Ueda is due to meet the press in Tokyo later Tuesday, where he may offer forward guidance on the BOJ’s future path of action.

---- On Friday, the Japanese central bank also said it expects core inflation — which it defines as inflation that excludes food prices — to stay above 2% through fiscal 2024. Despite core inflation exceeding its stated 2% target for 19 consecutive months, the BOJ has “patiently continued” with its super accommodative monetary policy.

The so-called “core core inflation” — inflation minus food and energy prices — has exceeded BOJ’s 2% target for 13 straight months now.

More

BOJ sticks to ultra-easy monetary policy in light of 'extremely high uncertainties' (cnbc.com)

ECB rate cut bets premature, markets have eased too much: Vasle

By Balazs Koranyi 

FRANKFURT, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will need at least until spring before it can reassess its policy outlook and market expectations for an interest rate cut in March or April are premature, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Monday.

The ECB left interest rates unchanged last week and guided for steady policy in coming months, even as investors piled pressure on the bank to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in signalling rate cuts given an a string of unexpectedly benign inflation data.

 

But Vasle, Slovenia's central bank governor, pushed back on market bets and even argued that financing conditions may no longer be restrictive enough, given tumbling bond yields and expectations for 150 basis points of rate cuts in 2024.

"Market expectations for interest rates cuts are premature in my view, both with regard to the start of cuts and the totality of moves," Vasle told Reuters.

"The market pricing has lowered the level of restriction and this recent accommodation priced into interest rates is inconsistent with the stance appropriate to return inflation to target," said Vasle, who is considered among the more conservative members of the ECB's rate-setting Governing Council.

Sources close to the discussion last week told Reuters that a revision of the ECB's message before March was unlikely, making any rate cut before June difficult.

Markets now see a 50-50 chance of a rate cut in March while a cut is fully priced in by April and more than two moves are seen by June.

But Vasle argued that the ECB may need to see the back of the first quarter to even contemplate revising its stance.

"We will receive limited new data before the January meeting so it won’t be before March or April that we get more information about inflation, growth, fiscal policy and the labour market," Vasle said. "We will need to understand the underlying trends better, and we need the new projections, too."

Although inflation, last at 2.4%, has likely bottomed out for now, it is seen increasing again before it can drop to 2% by the second half of 2025.

"Inflation could increase back already at the turn of the year, and then hover in a 2.5% to 3% corridor through the first half of next year," Vasle said. "So it’s appropriate to wait and observe price growth through this period and reassess our outlook."

Wages are also a unknown as workers who lost a chunk of their real incomes to high inflation in recent years demand compensation.

However, labour markets are behaving differently than the historical norm.

Unemployment normally rises when the central bank tightens policy and growth stalls as a result. This time, the labour market remains exceptionally tight even with the bloc near recession, as firms hoard labour in preparation for a rebound.

"Most of the wage formation is going to happen in the first quarter and we need to see if workers demand extra compensation or whether firms absorb some of the wage growth via margins," Vasle said.

ECB rate cut bets premature, markets have eased too much: Vasle | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

FDA Fails to Address DNA Adulteration Concerns

FDA’s Dr. Peter Marks resorts to gaslighting instead of facts in his response to Florida Surgeon General Inquiry.

12/15/2023  Updated:  12/15/2023

The failure of government regulatory authorities to identify and disclose DNA fragment contamination of the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine products prior to independent laboratories disclosing their contamination study findings has raised serious questions about quality control oversight of the manufacturing processes used to produce these products, as well as their overall safety. Rather than rigorously addressing specific safety questions concerning the previously undisclosed contamination or adulteration of both modified-mRNA vaccines, in a written Dec. 14 reply to a prior Dec. 6 inquiry, Dr. Peter Marks of the FDA Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research has resorted to redirecting, gaslighting, and stonewalling the Surgeon General of the State of Florida.

Experts from around the world have raised concerns about the safety implications of DNA fragment contamination in COVID gene therapy-based “vaccine” products. Leading regulatory authorities have conceded that these rushed novel and complex biological products are contaminated, and deliver both synthetic modified messenger ribonucleic acid (mod-mRNA) and a wide variety of uncharacterized shorter DNA fragments into the cells and tissues of those who have accepted these product. The Biden administration has previously mandated and currently markets these products in the United States for Americans of all ages including during pregnancy, fraudulently claiming that they prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and spread as well as COVID-19 disease and death.

These DNA fragments are left over contaminants from manufacturing the mod-mRNA “payload.” The contamination was first detected and reported by experienced U.S. and Canadian genomic researchers, and their findings have been replicated by many other laboratories.

To manufacture the COVID shots, both the DNA contaminants and the mod-mRNA are assembled into the most highly active lipid nanoparticle genetic delivery system ever developed, and this final drug product has been injected into over a billion human arms. After injection, the material distributes throughout the body and delivers both DNA and mod-mRNA to a wide variety of cells and tissues including ovaries.

Both mRNA and DNA can control a wide variety of cell functions. The mod-mRNA directs cells and tissues of the recipient to produce genetically engineered SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (as well as other uncharacterized “frameshifted” proteins and peptides). The DNA fragments come from the circular bacterial DNA (“plasmids”) used to manufacture the mod-mRNA. These plasmids include DNA sequences which can produce a variety of functions inside both bacterial and human cells; proteins which confer antibiotic resistance, sequences which guide DNA into the nucleus of cells, and highly active genetic switches for turning on adjacent genes in either bacterial or animal cells.

More

FDA Fails to Address DNA Adulteration Concerns | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today something different, if you live near the sea, how to start to build your own dirty A-bomb. Progress?

Electrified cloth extracts uranium from seawater

David Szondy  December 17, 2023

A team of scientists from China's Northeast Normal University has developed an electrochemical method for extracting uranium from ordinary seawater that has the potential to supply humanity with an effectively unlimited energy source.

By current estimates, there are about 8 million tonnes of known reserves of uranium on land. That's enough to fuel the world's nuclear reactors for centuries based on current technology, but in the sea there is an estimated 4.5 billion tonnes in the form of dissolved uranyl ions. If we could extract this economically, it would vastly extend our energy future. Even better, as uranium is removed from seawater, more would leach in from the Earth's crust, providing our descendants with over a billion years worth of nuclear fuel at any projected scale.

Led by Rui Zhao and Guangshan Zhu, the Northeast Normal team is looking at a novel way to extract these radioactive riches. Extraction isn't a new idea. In the past, other researchers have looked at using polymer matsconductive fibers, and other methods. Now, Northeast Normal is looking at a flexible cloth woven from carbon fibers coated with two specialized monomers and treated with hydroxylamine hydrochloride. The porous cloth provides tiny pockets for the amidoxime, which captures the uranyl ions.

The capture itself seems almost like a school chemistry experiment in its simplicity. The cloth was placed in either seawater or a solution of uranyl ions where it acted as a cathode. Meanwhile, a graphite anode was added. When a current was run between the two, bright yellow, uranium-based precipitates accumulated on the cathode cloth in the same way that bronze coats a baby shoe as a parental memento.

In tests, the team reported extracting 12.6 mg of uranium per gram of water over 24 days, which is a higher amount and at a faster rate than other materials tested or simply allowing uranium to naturally accumulate on cloth.

The research was published in ACS Central Science.

Source: American Chemical Society

Electrified cloth extracts uranium from seawater (newatlas.com)

"On the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the time.”

George Orwell.

  

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