Baltic
Dry Index. 2438 -113 Brent Crude 74.66
Spot Gold 2036 US 2 Year Yield 4.46 -0.27
When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is.
Oscar Wilde.
As expected the US central bank left its key interest rate unchanged, but the really big news came later when Fed Chairman Powell promised to bring out the punch bowl at least three times next year, after all it is a US presidential election year.
Needless to say the punters in the US stock casinos took that as a green light to bubble on taking the Dow up to new highs.
Commodities led by gold, soared. US long bond yields fell.
In reality, at least in my opinion, Chairman
Powell just set up the stock casinos to Bubble on into a 2024 recession crash.
Your Evening Briefing: The Dow Declares Victory Over Team
Recession
December 13, 2023 at 11:12 PM GMT
And the crowd went wild. As the US Federal Reserve left interest rates the same on Wednesday, it also filled investors with joy by saying it foresees lowering rates by 75 basis points in 2024.
Wall Street reacted with ecstasy, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its first record close in almost two years, recouping all losses from Jerome Powell’s seemingly victorious war on inflation. Just 15 months ago, the Dow had slid into bear territory.
But in recent months, the index has been buoyed by the prospect of a resilient US economy, ebbing inflation and strong corporate earnings. In November, the Dow rallied 8.8% to hit its biggest monthly gain in more than a year. “Beaten up stocks that are tied to the health of the economy have come back to life,” said Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners Global Advisory. “Stocks that have been hit by high rates are starting to recover.”
Here are today’s top stories
Citigroup
is offering a portion of annual
bonuses early to those staffers who agree to depart. Under Chief Executive Officer Jane
Fraser, the bank has engaged in a massive restructuring that includes an as-yet
untold number of firings. For some elite traders and bankers, their annual
bonuses, usually paid in February, can stretch into millions of dollars.
More
Bloomberg Evening Briefing: The Dow Declares Victory Over Team Recession - Bloomberg
Hong Kong
leads rally in Asia markets as Fed signals cuts next year; Japan stocks falls
UPDATED THU, DEC 14 2023 12:37 AM
EST
Hong Kong stocks led a rally among Asia-Pacific
equity markets Thursday as investors embraced the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move
to end its interest-rate-hiking cycle and signal cuts for the next year.
Optimism spilled over from Wall
Street, which rallied as the Fed
held rates at 5.25%-5.5% for a third straight time and laid out
the timeline for at least three quarter-percentage point cuts in 2024 and
beyond.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
1.15%, while China’s CSI 300 index gained marginally.
Forecasts for the core personal
consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s favored inflation gauge— have
also been pared back by the Fed to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, down from
2.6% and 2.3% respectively in its previous forecasts.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
up 1.65%, hitting levels not seen since Aug. 1 and closing at 7,377.9.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed
gains to fall 0.76%, while the Topix slipped 1.33%. The financial sector led
declines in the region as investors in Japan awaited the Bank of Japan’s policy
decision next week.
South Korea’s Kospi popped
1.24%, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 1.15%.
Overnight in the
U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record levels, gaining 1.4% and
marking the first time the benchmark closed above the 37,000 level — breaking a
previous record set in January 2022.
The S&P
500 jumped 1.37% and crossed the 4,700 mark for the first time since
January 2022, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.38%. All three
major averages hit fresh 52-week highs.
Asia stock markets:
Live updates, Fed decision, Hang Seng jumps (cnbc.com)
Stock futures rise Thursday after Dow closes at
a record high: Live updates
UPDATED THU, DEC 14 2023 12:32 AM EST
U.S. stock futures climbed Wednesday night after the Federal Reserve
indicated multiple
rate cuts in 2024, and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average closed
at an all-time high.
Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow added
104 points, or 0.28%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
The Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates
unchanged in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, in line with Wall Street’s
expectations. Market sentiment was buoyed after policymakers penciled in three
rate cuts next year.
In regular trading, the Dow jumped
by 1.4% during the main trading session to close at 37,090.24. This was the
first time the 30-stock index closed above 37,000 and broke its previous
closing high from January 2022. The S&P
500 added
1.37%, finishing above 4,700 for the first time since January 2022. The Nasdaq Composite gained
1.38%. The three major averages all rose to new 52-week highs.
The central bank’s commentary was a “tip of the cap to the
fact that we’re on a path to a soft landing — and maybe they will be able to
ease policy more than the market expects in 2024,” said Ross Mayfield,
investment strategy analyst at Baird.
Mayfield thinks that the market rally from over the past six
weeks and following Powell’s comments is now “warranted.”
“We’re basically priced for perfection,” Mayfield said.
“We’re probably at a point where risks are skewed a little bit to the downside
in 2024, but a soft landing is certainly in the cards and the Fed’s
acknowledgement today does help justify the move in equities.”
---- Investors will be keeping an eye on economic data on Thursday. Weekly
jobless claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. November’s retail sales and
imports data are also due that morning, as well as October’s business
inventories report.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
"Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it
may be terrific."
Roger Babson, speech to National Business Conference, Sept. 5th, 1929.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
"There may be a recession in stock
prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
Prof. Irving Fisher, Yale economist,
September 1929.
Manhattan
median rent falls for the first time in over two years
Manhattan rents fell for the first time in over two years, as the supply of
empty apartments grew and renters held out for price cuts, according to a
report released Thursday.
The median rent in Manhattan fell 2% in November, to $4,000
from $4,095, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The
drop, while slight, marks the first year-over-year decline in median prices in
27 months, according to the report.
“Prices hit an affordability threshold and this is the
reaction,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel.
The decline in Manhattan rents has important implications for the housing
market and overall
inflation, since Manhattan is the nation’s largest rental market.
Renters and economists have been predicting a decline in Manhattan rents for
over a year, but tight supply and strong demand pushed rents to record highs
over the summer, holding steady in the early fall.
Now, brokers say demand is
fading fast.
“The decline has been sudden,” said Keyan Sanai, the top
rental broker for Douglas Elliman in New York. “You can feel it.”
Sanai said many landlords are quietly offering concessions,
like a month of free rent, rather than cut listing prices. He had a recent one
bedroom listing in midtown that was asking $4,700 a month. After negotiating,
the renter won concessions that brought the effective rent down to $3,900 a
month.
The number of apartments offering concessions increased to
14% in November from 12% in October, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas
Elliman.
Sanai said the number of renters looking for apartments has
also cooled quickly. In September, his inbox was filled with renter requests
for a listing in a luxury building where units went for $7,500 a month. In
October, a similar unit came on the market “and nobody was reaching out. The
velocity declined rapidly.”
More
Manhattan
rents fall for first time in over two years (cnbc.com)
GDP
falls sharply in October as UK economy recession fears re-ignite
WEDNESDAY 13 DECEMBER 2023 7:04 AM
GDP fell 0.3 per cent in the month of October,
reigniting fears that a wave of interest rate hikes have strangled the UK
economy.
The economy was flat over the entirety of the
third quarter, according to the latest data from the Office for National
Statistics.
But the economy shrank 0.3 per cent in the latest
month on record.
Worryingly, services growth fell 0.2 per cent in
October, too.
Analysts had expected a 0.1 per cent fall.
The figures set the scene for the Bank of England’s
last call on interest rates of the year, to be announced Thursday.
The Bank has hit pause after a breakneck period in
which the interest rate was hiked 14 times in a row.
Most analysts expect the Bank of England to hold
rates this week, with members of the monetary policy committee in wait-and-see
mode until the impact on the economy becomes clearer.
Some believe the Bank’s interest rate hikes have
not filtered through into the wider economy yet, and the impacts need to be
felt before any further action to strangle money supply.
In its Financial Stability Report published last week, Threadneedle Street’s
Financial Policy Committee said higher interest rates continue to put some
firms and households “under pressure,” but UK corporates in particular were
expected to remain “broadly resilient to higher interest rates and weak growth”.
“In aggregate, UK corporates’ ability to service
their debts has improved due to strong earnings growth,” the Financial Policy
Committee said.
“But the full impact of higher financing costs has
not yet passed through to all corporate borrowers and will be felt unevenly,
with some smaller or highly leveraged UK firms likely to remain under
pressure,” the report continued.
Yet the figures published today appear to show an
economy that is already struggling from the higher cost of money.
As Suren Thiru, economics director at the
Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, commented: “These
figures suggest that the economy was unravelling even before the full force of
previous interest rate rises fed through to households and businesses.
“October’s negative outturn puts the Prime
Minister’s target to get the economy growing in jeopardy, with high inflation
and borrowing costs likely to suppress economic activity in November and
December.”
This view was backed up by Lindsay James,
investment strategist at Quilter Investors, who said: “With GDP growth over the
last rolling three month period also flat, economic conditions in the UK are
clearly tough as we work through the winter months.”
“The Bank of England has done a good job not
tipping the UK into recession to date, but interest rates are biting now and
further contraction cannot be ruled out. It could be a while before things get
better again,” she added.
More
GDP falls sharply in October as UK economy recession fears re-ignite - CityAM
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Are COVID-19 outcomes, including severe COVID-19 and persistent symptoms, associated with economic hardship among US families?
December
13, 2023
In a recent study published in JAMA Network Open, a group of researchers investigated the relationship between coronavirus disease- 2019 (COVID-19) health outcomes, economic hardship during the pandemic, and pre-pandemic socioeconomic status in United States (US) families.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 5.9 million hospital admissions in the US, with an estimated 3 to 5 million adults living with debilitating post-COVID-19 conditions (PCCs). Approximately 15% of US adults have experienced PCCs at some point. These health issues have significant economic repercussions, affecting employment and household finances. Individuals with severe COVID-19 or PCCs often face reduced work capacity and increased unemployment. Hospitalizations related to COVID-19 are also linked to job loss.
The financial strain is exacerbated by medical expenses and lost caregiver productivity. Low-income families, more likely to experience severe COVID-19 impacts, face heightened financial challenges. Further research is needed to fully understand and address the extensive and nuanced economic impacts of COVID-19, especially on families with lower incomes who are disproportionately affected by both health and financial consequences.
About the study
Adhering to the Strengthening
the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) reporting
guideline for cohort studies, the present research utilized data from the Panel
Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), a comprehensive, longitudinal study of US
families. This study specifically employed data from the PSID surveys conducted
in 2019 and 2021, which included new questions to assess the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic on families' health and finances.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Heavy
duty wheeled crane lifts turbine blades to nacelle 107 meters up
Paul Ridden December 12, 2023
China's Xuzhou Construction Machinery
Group recently took its new XCA3000 wheeled crane to a wind farm in the
Liaoning Province to lift a 25-ton blade some 107 meters above the ground,
before it was installed in the turbine hub.
XCMG
already has a number of huge wheeled and tracked cranes in its product lineup,
but its XCA3000 is possibly the most impressive of all. It's been specifically
designed for lifting wind turbines into place, boasts a lifting capacity of
3,000 tons, and is able to lift 190 tons to a maximum height of 160 m (525 ft)
– all of which gives it "the highest and heaviest lifting capacity among
wheeled cranes," according to the company.
For its debut
mission at the Dashiqiao Xintai 200-MW Wind Power Project site in Northeast
China, the long-necked monster used by Jiangsu Shenlong Engineering Technology
gently hoisted 95-m-long (311.6-ft), 25-ton turbine blades 107 m (351 ft) up to
be docked and installed in the waiting hub.
XCMG reckons that
"installing one wind turbine can save 20-30% of the lifting time"
meaning a nacelle weighing in at 135 tons and having a rated power output of 5
MW could "be effectively installed within a 30-minute operational window."
"This
innovation marks a leap in high-performance flexible jib technology, addressing
challenges in high-altitude lifting and space limitations during large wind
turbine installations," said state-owned XCMG. You can see the XCA3000 in
action in the video below.
Video
Heavy duty wheeled crane lifts turbine blades to
nacelle 107 meters up (newatlas.com)
The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect
everything, the young know everything.
Oscar Wilde.
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