Baltic Dry Index. 1560 +35 Brent Crude 84.71
Spot Gold 2000 US 2 Year Yield 4.00 +0.03
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 11/04/23 World 685,026,479
Deaths 6,838,034
As Milton Friedman once
put it, if you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and
quality. If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care about
quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only about
price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you don’t
care about either.
In the global stock casinos, more of the same nervousness ahead of the US inflation data figures this week.
Will they encourage the Fed to hold off on a rate increase at their next meeting, or will they instead force the US central bank into a bigger rate increase than the expected quarter of one percent.
In other news, Apple’s sales disappointed
even though they came in inline with expectations; China’s covid-19 economic
rebound disappoints.
Asian shares mostly higher after mixed day on Wall Street
April 11, 2023
Stocks were mostly higher in Asia on Tuesday after a
mixed session on Wall Street dominated by speculation the Federal Reserve may
tap the brakes again on financial markets and the economy by raising interest
rates.
Shares rose in Tokyo, Hong Kong,
Seoul and Shanghai. U.S. futures edged higher and oil prices also gained.
Monday was the first U.S. trading
day after the release of data showing a stronger than
expected jobs market in March, which might keep inflation high.
That has reinforced expectations the Fed may hike interest rates again at its
next meeting.
In Japan, the new central bank
governor indicated late Monday that he expects to keep its
ultra-low interest rate policy in place without drastic changes.
Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda did
say a long-term review of the policy, which is aimed at fostering stronger
economic growth by keeping inflation near a target of 2%, might eventually be
needed.
----In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index gained 1.4% to 28,013.86.
South Korea’s Kospi also advanced
1.4%, to 2,546.07. The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% for
a second straight meeting, one of many regional banks that are now slowing or
reversing rate increases due to signs of weakness in the global economy.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.7%
to 20,481.02, while the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.3% to 7,314.00.
The Shanghai Composite index lost
0.2% to 3,310.00.
On Monday, the S&P 500 edged
0.1% higher to 4,109.11. Big tech stocks fell more than the rest of the market,
which helped pull the Nasdaq composite down less than 0.1%, to 12,084.36. It
was down as much as 1.4% earlier in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
was steadier, rising 0.3% to 33,586.52.
Higher rates tend to hit tech and
other high-growth stocks the hardest, and Apple and Microsoft were the two
heaviest drags on the S&P 500. Apple fell 1.6%, and Microsoft slipped
0.8.%.
Tesla also dipped 0.3% after paring a sharper, early
loss. The company cut prices on its entire U.S. model lineup in an apparent
attempt to to entice buyers amid rising interest rates, which make auto loans
more expensive.
The Fed has raised interest rates
at a furious pace over the last year in hopes of undercutting high inflation.
Higher rates can do that, but only by bluntly slowing the entire
economy in one fell swoop. That raises the risk of a recession
in the future and drags down prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.
The Fed has jacked up rates at
every one of its meetings over the past year, forcing them up from near zero at
the start of 2022.
On Wednesday, the U.S. government
will release its latest monthly update on prices across the economy at the
consumer level. Economists expect it to show inflation slowed last month but
remains well above the Fed’s target.
More
Asian
shares mostly higher after mixed day on Wall Street | AP News
Bank of Korea holds rates; Asia markets rise as
bitcoin hits $30,000
UPDATED MON, APR 10 2023 11:55 PM EDT
Stocks in the Asia-Pacific rose on Tuesday as
the Bank of Korea held interest rates at 3.5%, in line with expectations. South
Korea’s central bank held rates for the second consecutive time as the nation
grapples with an inflation rate of 4.2%.
South Korea’s Kospi rose
further after the move and traded 1.4% higher and the Kosdaq inched up 0.5%.
Bitcoin surpassed
$30,000 for the first time since June 2022 while ether neared
$2,000.
---- Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 ticked
slightly higher as investors looked ahead to key
inflation data this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
0.3% while the Nasdaq
Composite inched lower by 0.03% as tech stocks saw declines,
including shares of Apple falling
1.6% and Google-parent Alphabet sliding
1.8%.
Tesla shares fell
0.3% after the company said
it will cut prices again on some electric vehicles
Asia markets: Bank of
Korea, China inflation, Wall Street tech stocks, bitcoin (cnbc.com)
Apple’s Mac
shipments fall more than 40%, worse than major rivals
Apple’s worldwide computer shipments fell 40.5%
year over year in the first quarter of 2023, amid a broader contraction in
consumer demand, according to
research firm IDC.
All five of the largest computer
makers — Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo —
saw double-digit drops in first-quarter shipments, reflecting weaker demand and
persistent inventory woes. But Apple’s decline was the biggest of the bunch.
Apple’s worldwide PC market share dropped between the first
quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, from 8.6% to 7.2%, according to
IDC data. The company shipped 2.8 million fewer devices year over year in the
first quarter of 2023, according to IDC.
---- Apple shares closed down over 1.5% Monday.
“The preliminary
results also represented a coda to the era of COVID-driven demand and at least
a temporary return to pre-COVID patterns,” IDC said.
“Even with heavy
discounting, channels and PC makers can expect elevated inventory to persist
into the middle of the year and potentially into the third quarter,” IDC
researcher Jitesh Ubrani said in the report.
More
Apple's
Mac shipments fall more than 40%, worse than major rivals: IDC (cnbc.com)
China's
consumer, factory prices skid as demand falters
April 11, 2023 5:27
AM GMT+1
BEIJING, April 11
(Reuters) - China's consumer inflation hit an 18-month low and factory-gate
price declines sped up in March as demand stayed persistently weak, shoring up
the case for policymakers to take more steps to support the uneven economic
recovery.
In
contrast to surging prices globally, China's retail and producer inflation has
remained anaemic as the consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover
from their pandemic hit. Analysts now think consumer inflation could fall short
of Beijing's official targets this year.
The consumer
price index (CPI) rose 0.7% year-on-year, the slowest pace since September 2021
and weaker than the 1.0% gain in February, the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) said on Tuesday. The result fell short of the 1.0% rise tipped in a
Reuters poll.
"China's
March inflation report suggests that the Chinese economy is running a
disinflation process, which points to bigger room for monetary policy easing to
boost demand," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International.
The producer
price index (PPI) fell 2.5% year-on-year, the fastest pace since June 2020 and
compared with a 1.4% drop in February. The PPI has fallen for six straight
months.
China's
yuan hit a more-than-one-week low against the dollar on Tuesday morning following
the data, as investors stepped up bets domestic interest rates could be cut.
Shanghai's benchmark stock index (.CSI300) fell
0.25%, reversing a slight uptick in the opening.
Food
price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.6% in
the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%.
That
pushed the CPI down 0.3% from a month earlier after a 0.5% fall in February,
dashing expectations of no change.
More
China's
consumer, factory prices skid as demand falters | Reuters
Finally, fake avocado oil in the US food
chain? Who’d have thought it? Remember when all that dodgy EU “finest beef”
turned out to be knackered poor Dobbin and Neddy.
Unregulated Avocado Oil Market: Is Your Avocado Oil Fake?
Study finds stunning deception and rancid oils
among most avocado oil brands
Apr 9 2023
Shocking findings of a study done by the University of California-Davis (UCD)
analyzing the quality of avocado oils currently on the market in the United
States, highlighted rampant fraud in the food industry.
In the study, out of 22 avocado
samples including both extra virgin and refined oils from six grocery stores
(14 samples) and two online sources (eight samples) “at least 82 percent of
test samples were either stale before the expiration date or mixed with large
amounts of other oils,” a UCD report on the study noted.
UCD reported that only three
brands produced samples that were pure avocado oil but one of those was rancid,
meaning it was not as fresh and was oxidized.
Shocking Findings
As the world becomes more health
conscious, people seek out healthier oils—and avocado oil has become more
popular. The global demand for avocado oil has increased production of avocados
by one million tons from 2014 to 2017 and is projected to continue rising with
Mexico accounting for one-third of the world’s production.
But according to the UCD study,
the increase in demand has brought many different manufacturers into the game
and consumers are being misled.
In the study, 15 out of the 22
samples were oxidized before the expiration date, producing an unpleasant taste
and odor making them unsuitable for consumption or use in cooking.
Oxidized avocado oil may also lose
some of its nutritional value, including its antioxidant properties, and can
lead to the formation of free radicals, which are unstable molecules that can damage
cells and contribute to various health problems.
Even worse, six samples were mixed
with large amounts of other oils, including sunflower, safflower, and soybean
oil, and three of the 22 tested labeled as “pure” or “extra virgin” avocado oil
contained nearly 100 percent soybean oil.
Research shows that soybean oil can not only lead to
obesity and diabetes, but could also cause genetic changes in the brain, and
affect neurological conditions like autism, Alzheimer’s disease, anxiety, and
depression.
The study also found that the majority of the samples were of low quality with five of the seven oils labeled “extra virgin,” six of the nine labeled “refined,” and many samples labeled “virgin” having high free fatty acids (FFA) values.
---- Per the UCD report, only two brands tested that were pure and non-oxidized were both
refined-grade avocado oils made in Mexico. The brands are Chosen Foods and
Marianne’s Avocado Oil.
In the virgin grades, CalPure produced in California was pure and fresher than the other samples in the same grade.
Cooperative Extension specialist in the Department of Food Science and Technology, Selina Wang, noted in the UCD report that because avocado oil is a newer product “the [U.S.] Food and Drug Administration has not yet adopted standards of identity, which are basic food standards designed to protect consumers from being cheated by inferior products or confused by misleading labels.”
The good news is that there are at least two options on the market that
are pure, although they are “refined,” meaning the oil is extracted with heat
or solvents to remove any flaws, whereas “virgin” is extracted from fresh fruit
by “pressing.”
More
Unregulated
Avocado Oil Market: Is Your Avocado Oil Fake? (theepochtimes.com)
Knacker
A knacker (/ˈnækər/), knackerman or knacker
man is a person who removes and clears animal carcasses (dead, dying,
injured) from private farms or
public highways and renders the collected carcasses into by-products such
as fats, tallow (yellow grease), glue, gelatin, bone meal, bone char, sal ammoniac,[1] soap, bleach and animal feed. A
knacker's yard or a knackery is different from a slaughterhouse or
abattoir, where animals are slaughtered for human consumption. Since the Middle Ages, the
occupation of "knacker man" was frequently considered a disreputable
occupation. Knackers were often also commissioned by the courts as public executioners.[2]
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Dollar
pauses after strong gains on hawkish Fed bets; bitcoin hits $30,000
April 11, 2023 2:47
AM GMT+1
TOKYO, April 11
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar paused for breath on Tuesday following its best
rally this month against major peers as a resilient U.S. labour market
bolstered the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.
The
yen, which is highly sensitive to long-term U.S. bond yields, managed to claw
back some of Monday's more than 1% slide, as the 10-year Treasury yield also slowed
down in Tokyo trading after a sharp two-day climb. The Japanese currency came
under additional pressure overnight as the new Bank of Japan governor, Kazuo
Ueda, vowed to stick with ultra-easy stimulus
setting for the time being.
Leading
cryptocurrency bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 for the first time since June.
The
U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback against six major
counterparts, including the yen - slipped 0.06% in early Asian trading,
following a 0.39% advance at the start of the week.
The
dollar eased 0.16% to 133.39 yen , after jumping 1.1% overnight.
Traders
now see the Fed as 74% likely to raise rates by another quarter point on May 3
, after data released on Good Friday showed U.S. employers continued to hire at
a strong pace in March, pushing down the jobless rate. Last week, money markets
priced a hike next month as a coin toss.
More
Dollar
pauses after strong gains on hawkish Fed bets; bitcoin hits $30,000 | Reuters
Egypt's
headline inflation rate increased to 32.7% in March
April
10, 2023 8:48 AM GMT+1
CAIRO, April 10 (Reuters) - Egypt's
annual urban consumer inflation rate in March climbed to 32.7% year-on-year,
just shy of an all-time record, from 31.9% in February, data from the country's
statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Monday.
The surging inflation rate follows a
series of currency devaluations starting in March 2022, a prolonged shortage of
foreign currency and continuing delays in getting imports into the country.
Egypt, which secured a $3 billion
financial support package from the International Monetary Fund in December, has
devalued its currency by half since March 2022 after fallout from Russia's
invasion of Ukraine exposed vulnerabilities in Egypt's economy.
The median forecast of 13
analysts polled showed
annual urban consumer inflation rising to 33.6% in March.
Egypt's highest inflation rate ever was
32.952%, reached in July 2017, eight months after Egypt devalued its currency
by half as part of a previous $12 billion IMF support package.
The core inflation rate, which excludes
fuel and some volatile food items, is expected to be released later on Monday.
The median of the analysts' forecasts expect that to climb to a record 42.25%
from February's 40.26%, the current record.
Egypt's headline inflation rate increased to 32.7% in March | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
You Can Get Covid-19 From Coronavirus-Contaminated
Surfaces, New Study Confirms
April
8, 2023
On
the surface of things, these findings make sense. A new study just
published in The Lancet Microbe showed
that detecting the Covid-19 coronavirus on people’s hands and on
frequently-touched household surfaces was associated with transmission of the
virus. In other words, the results from this study provided further evidence
that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can
spread not only through contact with infected people and the air but also via
contaminated hands and surfaces. Thus, it does make sense to
keep washing your hands frequently and making sure that your lathering with
soap and water lasts through all the lyrics of “Happy Birthday” or at least the
first chorus of the Divinyls song “I Touch Myself.” It also makes sense to keep
regularly disinfecting high-touch surfaces such as keyboards, mice (not real
live mice but computer mice), table tops, door knobs, and Chris Hemsworth’s
biceps.
This
study recruited people in London, UK, who were diagnosed with Covid-19 from
September 2020 through March 2021. This covered the pre-alpha (September to
through the end of November 2020) and alpha (B.1.1.7; December 2020, through
the end of March 2021) variant phases of the Covid-19 pandemic. The research
team from Imperial College, London, dubbed these initial recruits “primary
cases” and then repeatedly tested for SARS-CoV-2 the hands of these primary
cases and the hands of those who shared the same household with these primary
cases. The study also involved repeatedly testing frequently-touched surfaces
in the communal spaces of those households.
During the study period, the research team identified 620 primary cases and then continued to test 414 people who shared 279 households with the primary cases. Ultimately, 28·4% of the household mates ended up getting infected during the pre-alpha phase and 51·8% during the alpha phase. While the rates of transmission did not correlate with amount of virus that the primary cases had in their upper respiratory tract, such rates did correlate with the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on primary cases’ hands.
In
fact, household members were 70% more likely to catch the SARS-CoV-2 if the
primary cases had detectable SARS-CoV-2 on their hands and 66% more likely if
the high-touch surfaces in communal areas of the household had detectable
SARS-CoV-2. When household members had detectable SARS-CoV-2 on their hands,
they were 106% or over twice as likely to have developed Covid-19. Moreover, in
six cases where household members ended up catching the SARS-Cov-2, the primary
cases didn’t even have PCR-detectable SARS-CoV-2 in their upper respiratory
tracts. Detectable SARS-CoV-2 was present either in their hands or on high-touch
surfaces. All of this suggested rather strongly that shared surfaces did a play
a role in at least some of the transmission that occurred in the household.
More
You Can Get
Covid-19 From Coronavirus-Contaminated Surfaces, New Study Confirms
(forbes.com)
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
5MW
solar farm to power Dorset Green Hydrogen
Published: 6
Apr 2023, 10:41
The 5MW Whites Pit solar farm in Wimborne, Dorset, has been commissioned
by renewable energy Ethical Power to provide power to the Dorset Green
Hydrogen project.
The solar project has been commissioned on behalf of Canford Renewable
Energy, an operator and developer of energy infrastructure, to power its first
green hydrogen project – a 0.9MW electrolyser.
Whites Pit solar farm consists of 12,430 solar modules that have been
installed across a 26-acre landfill site. This had been energised in October
2022. The green energy produced via the solar farm will provide green energy to
the electrolyser throughout its design lifetime of 30 years.
The green hydrogen produced at the site, which could reach up to
120,000kg per year, will be compressed, stored and sold for local and regional
use as a carbon free fuel. This will help decarbonise large vehicle fleets in
Dorset.
“Brownfield developments are typically more complex than greenfield
projects,” said Neil Buck, managing director of Ethical Power.
“To successfully build on a landfill site, you need a deep understanding
of the complexities around existing land use, challenging ground conditions and
the specific mounting structure requirements. Whites Pit was a difficult
project but together with the Canford team we managed to find solutions that
ensured the correct multi-tech infrastructure and controls are in place and we
confidently met the energisation date.”
Ethical Power was the
EPC contractor for the Whites Pit solar park built on a closed former landfill
owned by Canford Renewable Energy. The scope of works by Ethical Power Group
companies also included development consultancy and due diligence, civils and
reinstatement works and technical due diligence throughout the construction
phase.
More
5MW solar farm to
power Dorset Green Hydrogen | Solar Power Portal
It is
always the best policy to speak the truth, unless, of course, you are an
exceptionally good liar.
Jerome K. Jerome, Idler Magazine 1892.
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